Quasievil Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 just saw the NAM and GFS...after last night I'll hug it, love it, and book it! LWX has a 60% of rain changing to snow for me and then 30% of rain on Tuesday? What are they smoking? Would def be all snow on Tuesday if anything at all. http://forecast.weat...Field2=-76.4501 Those LWX forecasts a lot of times are computer generated. Too early yet to start throwing up these big snow chances. I like where we sit right now for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 My NOAA forecast for Rehoboth Beach, DE says rain Monday Night and 30% chance of snow , 6z Nam and GFS would average about 8 inches if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 My NOAA forecast for Rehoboth Beach, DE says rain Monday Night and 30% chance of snow , 6z Nam and GFS would average about 8 inches if it were to verify. The NWS is not going to change their forecast this far out when the models are still switching back and forth with the majority of QPF going north or south of the Mason Dixion Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Interested enough to be waiting for the NAM to run. That will probably kill the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Looks like more energy out in the southwest at 24 compared to the 30 panel on the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 As we are waiting for the NAM thought I would throw out best looking ensemble member for the 06Z GFS if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I have a feeling it is going north based on the 42 hour panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I have a feeling it is going north based on the 42 hour panel I agree, but doesn't look as far north as the earlier frames led me to believe. Wouldn't be surprised to see the 2'nd wave come north a little too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I have a feeling it is going north based on the 42 hour panel I think it is going to be a warmer run. Not much consistency yet. The 09Z sref esnembles were not very bullish and didn't bring the zero line at 850 through Washington until around 08Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I have a feeling it is going north based on the 42 hour panel And the the storm is still 24 hrs from even forming? Let it play out Does look a little north with the first wave and the PV is a little weaker so far. On second thought, it's putrid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam850mbTSLPp06066.gif too bad its the 12z nam out of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I see the main problem is the PV is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The sounding just is snow at 06Z for dca suggesting any precip before that time is rain and or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Doesn't look terrible to me. Maybe not as good as overnight, but that's some snow for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Doesn't look terrible to me. Maybe not as good as overnight, but that's some snow for the region. And given that we were almost 80 degrees yesterday that's pretty amazing to have any mention of snow this soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 A bit cooler with the PV maybe a bit stronger and the QPF shield just a bit further north would be a good run for us. Like the high QPF though, the snow we do get will be really coming down with those UVV's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 And given that we were almost 80 degrees yesterday that's pretty amazing to have any mention of snow this soon. I'll tell you what's amazing if you are looking at the NAM. It has my temps in the 50's at 7 pm Monday, and in the teens at 12z Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 temps really crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 temps really crash Now that's an impressive temp crash! I'd have to imagine we at least get a few flakes flying. Questions about accumulations are yet to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yes, the most amazing thing with this model is the temp crash. At supper Monday, I'm in the 50's and at bedtime, I'm in the 20's. This crash coming with pretty heavy precip falling. This could be fun. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 A bit cooler with the PV maybe a bit stronger and the QPF shield just a bit further north would be a good run for us. Like the high QPF though, the snow we do get will be really coming down with those UVV's. Yeah the one positive is that we get all the precip. This very well could turn into a classic nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Amazing how narrow the stripe of precip is. If we do get a good snow out of this, vis sat should look funny when it clears up Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah the one positive is that we get all the precip. This very well could turn into a classic nowcast event. Yep, with temps like the 6z NAM was great, 12z precip a bit north with 6z's temps are good. I'd like to see GFS come a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah the one positive is that we get all the precip. This very well could turn into a classic nowcast event. this storm will end up being very similar to the 1/26 event with a transition to heavy snow, just not as much qpf though colder, which may make up for some of the lost qpf darn shame its gonna turn to snow in the middle of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 this storm will end up being very similar to the 1/26 event with a transition to heavy snow, just not as much qpf though colder, which may make up for some of the lost qpf darn shame its gonna turn to snow in the middle of the night no worry about the sun angle tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I usually sleep all night without waking up once.....unless there is snow in the forecast. Then I typically wake up every hour to look out the window. Another basic weenie affliction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Compared to the 06Z it really has narrowed down the heavier precip. Axis of the heavier precip looks about in the same location though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If I were just looking at the 500's I would have thought the precip would have been farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I've seen worse model runs this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I've seen worse model runs this winter and most of them verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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