OKpowdah Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It's not out of the question that MBY ends up with around an average winter. Obviously, January was something special, but one month doesn't make the winter. If we don't make a big return after the thaw, then by the numbers, this winter was, locally, nothing spectacular. Not a prediction by any means. I've been on the bandwagon for a big March for a very long while. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It's not out of the question that MBY ends up with around an average winter. Obviously, January was something special, but one month doesn't make the winter. If we don't make a big return after the thaw, then by the numbers, this winter was, locally, nothing spectacular. Not a prediction by any means. I've been on the bandwagon for a big March for a very long while. Just saying... Everyone needs to put their totals in the table thread then you can use your computer wizardry and make us a map, even versus climo to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It's not out of the question that MBY ends up with around an average winter. Obviously, January was something special, but one month doesn't make the winter. If we don't make a big return after the thaw, then by the numbers, this winter was, locally, nothing spectacular. Not a prediction by any means. I've been on the bandwagon for a big March for a very long while. Just saying... This... I could conceivably end up with less snow than last year's disastah! Not predicting that, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Scooter sorry about reading you wrong. Using Euro Ens this looks like an Arctic tap ready to go. The PV is displaced south and we seem to be ready to reload the beginning of Jan pattern. JMHO,Rev KeV stuff? It's all good. I think Will summed it up by saying we'll need a few more mdt events, or even another large storm to really put this winter into the top 3 for some. That's basically how I feel at this point. It's been epic so far for my area..no question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Euro says chance at 70 next Fri or Sat?? And lost the big cooldown afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Euro says chance at 70 next Fri or Sat?? And lost the big cooldown afterwards 70 is a bit extreme. 50s are probably a lock. Still quite cold in Canada and pressing on the op and ensembles of the Euro late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 And lost the big cooldown afterwards Screams big time overrunning snows.....Euro ensembles..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 East based NAO and decent AO gives us plenty of chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Euro ensembles still show a cool down, but I just don't see signs for a big pattern change yet. No real blocking, and perhaps alternating periods of warm and cold. Se ridge is on, and Nina is getting revenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Screams big time overrunning snows.....Euro ensembles..... That's a good pattern in Dec and Jan..but in late Feb not so much We'll need it colder than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 That's a good pattern in Dec and Jan..but in late Feb not so much We'll need it colder than that Nah...that's bitter in Canada. That's the difference this year. In almost every other winter recently, warm periods featured scouring of cold completely from Canada. Not this year. A relish a fight between the SE ridge and Canada. When we're on the right side of that battle, big snows can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Nah...that's bitter in Canada. That's the difference this year. In almost every other winter recently, warm periods featured scouring of cold completely from Canada. Not this year. A relish a fight between the SE ridge and Canada. When we're on the right side of that battle, big snows can happen. I just hope we are on the right side of the boundary. I'd like to see more blocking to our north, that's what concerns me. Maybe it works out that we have enough blocking, but I don't like how delicate it is. Looks like a torch south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 This place will be like a funeral over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 This place will be like a funeral over the next week. Heavy snow on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Agree 100% on no clear sign of a pattern change. Definitely would think some sneaky low-level cold will make it into New England post-late next week's torch, but the pattern is looking very Nina-ish for the foreseeable future. The Euro ensemble idea that AK will warm up to near normal after a period of much below normal is also a good sign for a nice arctic dump coming out of central Canada. However, it looks like by next weekend there may be a battle between the northern stream tendency for troughing in E Canada and the southern stream tendency for ridging over the SE US. Euro ensembles still show a cool down, but I just don't see signs for a big pattern change yet. No real blocking, and perhaps alternating periods of warm and cold. Se ridge is on, and Nina is getting revenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 This place will be like a funeral over the next week. torch nina winter finally showing her face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I wonder if all the snow will melt or if most will keep decent snowcover when this brutal assault is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I wonder if all the snow will melt or if most will keep decent snowcover when this brutal assault is over good question. you should take lots of pics though just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 good question. you should take lots of pics though just in case Yes, do a series of before and afters like Will did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 forecast low was 19, made it to 23, another high bust during this cold snap. OKX has upped temps this weekend, Sunday should be mild throughout sne as winds turn wsw ahead of the weak clipper that passes well to the north, hope you swamp yankees in the hills get some snow sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Get up in the am now and read last nights stuff in 2 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Agree 100% on no clear sign of a pattern change. Definitely would think some sneaky low-level cold will make it into New England post-late next week's torch, but the pattern is looking very Nina-ish for the foreseeable future. The Euro ensemble idea that AK will warm up to near normal after a period of much below normal is also a good sign for a nice arctic dump coming out of central Canada. However, it looks like by next weekend there may be a battle between the northern stream tendency for troughing in E Canada and the southern stream tendency for ridging over the SE US. Yeah that's what concerns me, the battle lines should be real close to sne. I do think the sneaky cold will make it in here from time to time anyways, but not sure if it will be transient..or will it be able to have some staying power. It could be a very snowy pattern for NNE and se Canada, but SNE could be in the mix too, if that boundary can stay south. IMO, it's too close to call right now, especially with no clear blocking signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 hope you swamp yankees in the hills get some snow sunday night. Ha-ha, not many people use 'swamp yankee' anymore. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 forecast low was 19, made it to 23, another high bust during this cold snap. OKX has upped temps this weekend, Sunday should be mild throughout sne as winds turn wsw ahead of the weak clipper that passes well to the north, hope you swamp yankees in the hills get some snow sunday night. This was the case last Sunday and Monday too-highs were above guidance both days. I'd say 2/1 will mark the high water point of this winter for us here in SW CT, it's a slow and maybe moderate meltdown of the pack the next 7-10 days...oh well...glad we didnt get a 55 degree rainstorm to wash it all away at once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah that's what concerns me, the battle lines should be real close to sne. I do think the sneaky cold will make it in here from time to time anyways, but not sure if it will be transient..or will it be able to have some staying power. It could be a very snowy pattern for NNE and se Canada, but SNE could be in the mix too, if that boundary can stay south. IMO, it's too close to call right now, especially with no clear blocking signal. I just wish we could have held the cold/snowy pattern in until the end of Feb. By then it's March..and March snows are fun..but don't have the same feel that Dec and Jan snowfalls have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 good question. you should take lots of pics though just in case Yeah i've already taken a bunch and will do some more this weekend. Haven't been weather depressed like this in awhile..Heartbreaking looking around out there..knowing what is coming in less than a week. The key to retaining some of the pack will be the nighttime lows. Do we fall below freezing at night or do we stay in the 40's all night after 65-70 degree days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I just wish we could have held the cold/snowy pattern in until the end of Feb. By then it's March..and March snows are fun..but don't have the same feel tha Dec and Jan snowfalls have. I am actually not completely dreading this thaw. A nice change in pace to refresh our appreciation of snow storms. I really like March snows too. For whatever reason, of the 6 month period from November through April, I care the least about February snowfall/temps. Not really sure why. I always want some good snowfall for the holidays, and I like the classic mid winter feel in January with a couple feet on the ground accompanied by sub zero temperatures. And I love the early-spring snowstorms ... we also haven't had much in the way this winter of wet snow bombs that paste everything in white -- I'm looking forward to a few of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I am actually not completely dreading this thaw. A nice change in pace to refresh our appreciation of snow storms. I really like March snows too. For whatever reason, of the 6 month period from November through April, I care the least about February snowfall/temps. Not really sure why. I always want some good snowfall for the holidays, and I like the classic mid winter feel in January with a couple feet on the ground accompanied by sub zero temperatures. And I love the early-spring snowstorms ... we also haven't had much in the way this winter of wet snow bombs that paste everything in white -- I'm looking forward to a few of those. When do you think things get snowy/cold again? the week of the 20th or not until March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah i've already taken a bunch and will do some more this weekend. Haven't been weather depressed like this in awhile..Heartbreaking looking around out there..knowing what is coming in less than a week. The key to retaining some of the pack will be the nighttime lows. Do we fall below freezing at night or do we stay in the 40's all night after 65-70 degree days Snap out of it. Plenty of winter to come, that will restore your snow pack, and surpass your previous peak! The summer of 2009 and winter of 09-10 was when I really bottomed out in weather depression. Since then, we had a classic summer scorchah, and decent hurricane season to follow, and now an amazing streak of winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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