CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You are pretty much saying what I just did.....no huge months, but no stinkers, so the mean is high. Well Feb also has 3 less days. It does have a say in the outcome. The snowbomb of 2/28-3/1 during '05 would have added 13" of snow to February's total. I've had some good February's. February '94 and '03 especially. So 2 out of 4 great winters had this. I know Feb '03 was a bummer for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Feb is never the best month and it wasn't in any of those years, either. Feb was the let down from March and Jan in 2005......March was better in 2001......I think Jan was better in 1994.....like I said, the one time Feb may have been best in 2003, I was screwed....I liked Jan better. I like to think of Feb as the month where cstl areas can get revenge. I know Feb '03 sucked for you, but the others were good to us, especially south of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Well Feb also has 3 less days. It does have a say in the outcome. The snowbomb of 2/28-3/1 during '05 would have added 13" of snow to February's total. I've had some good February's. February '94 and '03 especially. So 2 out of 4 great winters had this. I know Feb '03 was a bummer for you. Of course it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Feb and Mar of '96 were both pretty great IIRC; it seemed to snow 2-3 times a week, at least. That's really what saved the season after that terrible January melt-off. This winter ain't '96, though. lol Let's appreciate the upcoming warmup and go from there. I still cannot see why people want to try to get excited about D10-15 snows when we have a possibly great stretch of weather to look forward to before that. Talk about wishing your life away! Like was mentioned before, if this winter goes to sleep early (which is appearing more and more likely over the next two-three weeks), for most of us it just goes down as another pretty good old fashioned New England winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Of course it does. You need a scorpion bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 In the meantime, we're dropping well below zero tonight and the weekend looks nice for outdoor activities of all kinds. Why the sad faces I'll never understand. its plenty cold for us the next few days and a good shot at snow possible. the thaw wont come for a while yet. of course winter will return after the thaw, but in terms of it being a memorable winter, losing the steadily built snowpack that at least gave us the base required for an outside shot at something memorable through march would be disheartening. it looks to be a very pedestrian winter by our norms. but yeah winter aint going anyhwere lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I bet the euro won't have the clipper south for Monday like the GFS does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I like to think of Feb as the month where cstl areas can get revenge. I know Feb '03 sucked for you, but the others were good to us, especially south of BOS. the first 2 weeks of feb IMO are when the stormtrack is most suppressed. dont have any evidence for that other than yrs of obs IMBY...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Euro may hit 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You need a scorpion bowl. This cold is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Clippa is a weak POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Clippa is a weak POS I haven't viewed any piece of guidance for days and I won't for a couple of weeks. Pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I haven't viewed any piece of guidance for days and I won't for a couple of weeks. Pointless. You don't want to, It will only make you depressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The thaw is roughly 48 hours long on the GFS...Midday Wed to Midday Fri. Timing could differ over there. Some spots may get to around freezing Wed. night to mitigate it. Thur. night is definitely heavy thawing. It sux, but is perfectly normal. You get six plus weeks of solid winter and the pattern has to reload and shift at some point. Unfortunately this is 42 to 43 north and not Labrador. Feb is never the best month and it wasn't in any of those years, either. Feb was the let down from March and Jan in 2005......March was better in 2001......I think Jan was better in 1994.....like I said, the one time Feb may have been best in 2003, I was screwed....I liked Jan better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 far more muted warm-up on the 12z euro...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 far more muted warm-up on the 12z euro...FWIW. It wants to send a sneaky coldfront down, later on Thursday. 00z did this too. Then perhaps overrunning Saturday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 far more muted warm-up on the 12z euro...FWIW. it looks to being around day 6 it really gets going i think we have about 3 more days of model runs before we can tell just how warm its going to get , there is some sneaky cold and the PV is lurking off northern quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Day 47 of snowpack here on the sw ct shore. Epic 29 sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It wants to send a sneaky coldfront down, later on Thursday. 00z did this too. Then perhaps overrunning Saturday?? still pretty warm there for a time but doesn't have that horrendous torch look that yesterday did...and it looks to turn wintry thereafter. who knows but at least Tip can open the garage door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 far more muted warm-up on the 12z euro...FWIW. Overunning snows? Interesting change today.. Maybe one day nearin the 40's-near 50 and that's it? Would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 It wants to send a sneaky coldfront down, later on Thursday. 00z did this too. Then perhaps overrunning Saturday?? It would be hilarious if for all that consternation what actually verified were a polar boundary anchored from ACY to PIT, with a wedge of freezing air some 400 mile so of the ridge periphery throught the area....with overrunning concerns. Huge snow pack and tendencies for 700 and 500mb confluence packages rippling through Ontario? ...not impossible an outcome, however well it COULD be modeled at this type of time lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 far more muted warm-up on the 12z euro...FWIW. Last for a day up here, Will see if its right over the course of the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 One thing to consider ... despite the "ridgy" appeal of Wed-Satur overall over the CONUS, heights are not really that anomalously high actually. The 582dm contour is only up to ATL, and we are really only talking 552dm heights over BOS despite the anticyclonic curvature to the geopotential contours. That would all put a theoretical cap on the 'how warm' it could get as actual thickness won't be higher than the GPM. Doesn't work that way. That "warm sector" on the ECM really looks more like upper 40s to mid 50s to me - not the obscene 70 that some have somehow interpreted. The run cools down significantly at the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Scott's -EPO return on this run ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 One thing to consider ... despite the "ridgy" appeal of Wed-Satur overall over the CONUS, heights are not really that anomalously high actually. The 582dm contour is only up to ATL, and we are really only talking 552dm heights over BOS despite the anticyclonic curvature to the geopotential contours. That would all put a theoretical cap on the 'how warm' it could get as actual thickness won't be higher than the GPM. Doesn't work that way. That "warm sector" on the ECM really looks more like upper 40s to mid 50s to me - not the obscene 70 that some have somehow interpreted. The run cools down significantly at the end! i think yesterday's 12z run would have yielded some low 60s at face value along the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 70s should be reserved for NC and perhaps VA. 60s are still in the realm of possibility on Thu for BOS/PVD *if* the sneaky cold front advertised by ECMWF doesn't make that far south and the wind flow is westerly enough to preclude sea breezes (really only an issue for PVD). However, if I were issuing a forecast now, I'd go with low-mid 50s for BOS for Thu. One thing to consider ... despite the "ridgy" appeal of Wed-Satur overall over the CONUS, heights are not really that anomalously high actually. The 582dm contour is only up to ATL, and we are really only talking 552dm heights over BOS despite the anticyclonic curvature to the geopotential contours. That would all put a theoretical cap on the 'how warm' it could get as actual thickness won't be higher than the GPM. Doesn't work that way. That "warm sector" on the ECM really looks more like upper 40s to mid 50s to me - not the obscene 70 that some have somehow interpreted. The run cools down significantly at the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Overunning snows? Interesting change today.. Maybe one day nearin the 40's-near 50 and that's it? Would be awesome You should listen to my early am insite more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 12z ec ens still pretty warm in the wed-sat time period (after a pretty sharp cold snap tuesday - which i actually think the GEFS showed first yesterday FWIW) but they too have a general oozing southward of cold air by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 What a great winter day today, pleasure being outside to enjoy and work in it. Expected highs from nws sun 41 mon 43 tue 39 wed 43 thur 48 Just a perfect slow melt with refreezing at night, could not ask for anything better, especially after the flooding last march/spring (at my home). Looking forward to a snowy March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 NAO on the ECMWF ensembles goes neutral by February 15/16...and remains in that general area through the 20th. La Nina is still flexing its muscles through day 10 with positive 500mb height anomalies for much of the east coast...especially the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.