Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Fast foreward to march. Why...because that's when the good stuff happens? That makes no sense...that's like dreading a rectal exam but saying just get me to the rubber glove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Well unless it'6 60+ for 3 days with 2" of rain, I think you'll have a good chunk of it left. Sun prone areas here will torch, but I'll just make sure to only look at snow covered back yards...lol. If I knew that the nights would drop into the 20's I wouldn't be concerned..but I know exactl;y what will happen upper 40's-low 50's for highs and like 37-39 at night..with no refreezing for 2-3 days..I feel sick to my stomach just thinking about it.. Look away..I'm hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Why...because that's when the good stuff happens? That makes no sense...that's like dreading a rectal exam but saying just get me to the rubber glove. Yes. It makes sense to me.....stormier time and close to baseball season....I'm not really concerned whether it makes sense to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 If I knew that the nights would drop into the 20's I wouldn't be concerned..but I know exactl;y what will happen upper 40's-low 50's for highs and like 37-39 at night..with no refreezing for 2-3 days..I feel sick to my stomach just thinking about it.. Look away..I'm hideous LOL...you missed the Sarah McLachlan youtube clip I posted. Just picture the car starting, and then when the lyrics hit, the garage door shuts. I'm still laughing. You, Will, and Ray should be ok. I think we went over the reasons why. Just hope we can get that sneaky front south, but at the same time...don't get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think you're short changing the end of February and putting all your eggs in one basket with a big March. Yeah, the pattern looks pretty good after the torch/cutter....18z GFS has a good gradient pattern with a -EPO and a -PNA: Maybe we get a Feb 25 2010 redux Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 LOL...you missed the Sarah McLachlan youtube clip I posted. Just picture the car starting, and then when the lyrics hit, the garage door shuts. I'm still laughing. You, Will, and Ray should be ok. I think we went over the reasons why. Just hope we can get that sneaky front south, but at the same time...don't get your hopes up. I saw the post today..but ADP blocks youtube videos..so it was just blank under your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yes. It makes sense to me.....stormier time and close to baseball season....I'm not really concerned whether it makes sense to you. Lol...well good. I'm looking forward to 3 weeks of gay being gay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah, the pattern looks pretty good after the torch/cutter....18z GFS has a good gradient pattern with a -EPO and a -PNA: Fixed. What cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Fixed. Lol...not with the Atlantic the way it looks now and probably the rest of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I hate brown grass and mud/dirt/rotting leaves showing in the winter too. Snow that is getting dirty and crusty is ugly too, but its way less uglier than the former option. This mild break next week will be annoying but it won't be a back breaker I don't think. It might not be all that damaging if its limited to a couple days in upper 40s to near 50 with relatively low dews. Its the 55F with 50F dewpoints with rain and fog in the warm sector of big lakes cutters that really do the most damage....or a moister airmass that keeps overnight lows in the 40s like we saw in Jan 2008. But that was a much much warmer airmass. We had like 36 hours of 850s at +12C and over 48h of 850s near +10C. You and me are very similiar in our snow fetish..in fact sometimes it's like we're the same person lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 What cutter? Some of the models are showing a cutter at Day 7 with a 990s low over the Central Plains...that's what brings the cold back. Lol...not with the Atlantic the way it looks now and probably the rest of this month. Yeah, you really need a blockier Atlantic for that type of severe cut-off. As currently modeled, the pattern looks better for interior New England in late February, but not necessarily a total loss for the coastal plain. I'm thinking we see some good threats after 2/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 LOL...you missed the Sarah McLachlan youtube clip I posted. Just picture the car starting, and then when the lyrics hit, the garage door shuts. I'm still laughing. You, Will, and Ray should be ok. I think we went over the reasons why. Just hope we can get that sneaky front south, but at the same time...don't get your hopes up. I love this clip...Look away ..I'm hideous at they very end of the clip...I laugh for a long time everytime I see this... I think it's also ina clip from that movie "The Elephant Man " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You and me are very similiar in our snow fetish..in fact sometimes it's like we're the same person lol I hate the crappy look too, but bare ground makes me depressed. I enjoy watching people struggling to keep their balance over icy sidewalks. Call it sick, but it's winter in New England, not Savannah GA. That said, if it is mild and I don't have a choice...I would rather a day or two of sun, and not moist, foggy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I just saw pics from Carver. They have a sh*tload. That must be a sick gradient between your area and just to the nw by 15 miles. 1 mile west their is plenty of snow. Along Rte 25 it's all snow still, solid pack. There were naked weenies rolling around in it today when I drove by. If I knew that the nights would drop into the 20's I wouldn't be concerned..but I know exactl;y what will happen upper 40's-low 50's for highs and like 37-39 at night..with no refreezing for 2-3 days..I feel sick to my stomach just thinking about it.. Look away..I'm hideous What happened to your face? It looks like an old catchers mitt.... - Jerry Seinfeld. I think some of us are just killing time with the realization we have no idea what the pattern will look like in 14 days but that it probably gives us opportunities after D10...and some of you are just crabby and need to get laid or whack it more. It gets warm some snow melts, it gets cold and it snows/freezes. You think this is bad, imagine being Christopher Lee. (or Michael Richards at the Hard Rock Cafe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Gibbs says at least 1 day of 60's and record highs in all of SNE Thursday-Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Gibbs says at least 1 day of 60's and record highs in all of SNE Thursday-Sat Nice!! All about shorts next week, clean up the landscape and then hang on for a wild March ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Nice!! All about shorts next week, clean up the landscape and then hang on for a wild March ride! This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Gibbs says at least 1 day of 60's and record highs in all of SNE Thursday-Sat Euro would agree with a day near or just over 60 for some spots, maybe Friday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Euro would agree with a day near or just over 60 for some spots, maybe Friday?? I thought the Euro only had 1 semi mild day and it was like near 50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Euro weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Gibbs says at least 1 day of 60's and record highs in all of SNE Thursday-Sat Euro would agree with a day near or just over 60 for some spots, maybe Friday?? I thought the Euro only had 1 semi mild day and it was like near 50? Big big mixed signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I thought the Euro only had 1 semi mild day and it was like near 50? No, Friday was a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Euro weeklies? They're ok. The first week of March is near normal. Last week of February has slightly above normal heights, but that seems to be a product of gradient pattern, so I don't think 500 heights will be representative of srfc temps. Second week of March could be milder than avg, but week 4 has been unstable lately. They have no -NAO either, and feature a dominant North central Pacific ridge. The second week of March has lower heights to the northeast and keeps the warmth over the Plains. The one stable thing on the weeklies has been a lack of -NAO. I'm just not sold in it coming back with a vengeance right now. Maybe it will down the road. I think ridging near AK may have a bigger say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 They're ok. The first week of March is near normal. Last week of February has slightly above normal heights, but that seems to be a product of gradient pattern, so I don't think 500 heights will be representative of srfc temps. Second week of March could be milder than avg, but week 4 has been unstable lately. They have no -NAO either, and feature a dominant North central Pacific ridge. The second week of March has lower heights to the northeast and keeps the warmth over the Plains. The one stable thing on the weeklies has been a lack of -NAO. I'm just not sold in it coming back with a vengeance right now. Maybe it will down the road. I think ridging near AK may have a bigger say. Scooter I have read your posts carefully over the last week or so regarding the longer term, and prospects for a return to a more winter like pattern (pattern change) your comments seem muted, filled with caution. If you were a gambling man, do you thing winter returns with a vengeance in March, or do you think most of the winter weather action is from the pike north? Interested in your thoughts if you care to respond, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 That frost quake thread out of the midwest is killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 They're ok. The first week of March is near normal. Last week of February has slightly above normal heights, but that seems to be a product of gradient pattern, so I don't think 500 heights will be representative of srfc temps. Second week of March could be milder than avg, but week 4 has been unstable lately. They have no -NAO either, and feature a dominant North central Pacific ridge. The second week of March has lower heights to the northeast and keeps the warmth over the Plains. The one stable thing on the weeklies has been a lack of -NAO. I'm just not sold in it coming back with a vengeance right now. Maybe it will down the road. I think ridging near AK may have a bigger say. I think they're wrong in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Scooter I have read your posts carefully over the last week or so regarding the longer term, and prospects for a return to a more winter like pattern (pattern change) your comments seem muted, filled with caution. If you were a gambling man, do you thing winter returns with a vengeance in March, or do you think most of the winter weather action is from the pike north? Interested in your thoughts if you care to respond, thanks! I'll be honest...I have no clue..lol. I'm really not a long range expert, and certainly do not possess the skill to say winter is relegated to north of the Pike. A couple of things that I am noting, however. After next week, I do think we'll go back to more colder weather with perhaps a chance or two at snow. With the se ridge still hanging around and some help perhaps from a little -epo or -nao ridging..it may favor a gradient like pattern. As always, latitude is huge with a gradient pattern so the further north you are, the better the chance of snow. Of course that doesn't mean areas near NYC will not get snow...just that climo likes areas further north. The MJO shows signs that it may have a weak influence as it hangs out in the circle of death. Some of the progs do try to hint at perhaps more convection near the dateline, so we can hope for that. As far as March goes, it seems like Nina and Nina's with previous strong blocking like to go back to that state. Don S seems to think that as well. My previous post about the weeklies was only intended to talk about what it shows. I try not to let any thoughts or emotions come out when strictly talking about what a model shows. The weeklies imo weren't bad. Last week of Feb looks gradient like. First week of March seems like it could be on the cool side. The second week was questionable, but again it could be that the polar vortex to our northeast helps out. If it does not, we have spring warmth, potentially...but lets not fuss about a week 4 prog. IMO and Steve may shoot me for this, but I don't think a big return of a -nao happens. This does not mean we won't see a -nao build in or even perhaps a prolonged weaker -nao, but I don't see a mdt to strong prolonged type block. I guess the caveat would be if we get a stratospheric warming event, but those have seemingly tried to build up, however the warmth never made it down to the troposphere. Perhaps due to the +QBO. I think the NPAC ridge may be governing our pattern and the east to west oscillation of this ridge may be the feature that mostly governs our weather, in combination with a raging -PNA. The other good news is that Canada is cold and the PV may be around to help suppress the Jet. We will need this because the se ridge seemingly wants to hang around, as Nina gets revenge. It's a delicate balance and 100 miles either way could mean the difference between 60F and S+ at 30F, so you scan see how tough a forecast would be. My guess is that we may have interludes of warm and cold, with perhaps a prolonged wintry stretch in later February or March, but that's not a guarantee. It could easily be an OV track if the se ridge is strong and -PNA is raging. In the next week to two weeks, look for two things. NPAC ridging that is closer to AK and not the Aleutians. The other is building heights near Greenland as only a small height increase across this region, may send the cold south...given the PV is in southern and central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 There's no way we get out of this thaw I'm afraid. Things may turn fun again after it ...probably will. But for at least a day or two it gets ugly I'm afraid. We'll have to see how much of the snow pack emerges on the other side of it.... My bet it that most of us still have full cover because there is just so much of it. Maybe the immediate coastal areas don't. But ...it's typical stuff. We never even had a January thaw this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 That frost quake thread out of the midwest is killer. Cool stuff but now I need to add frost quake to my la epic winter checklist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Scooter all you posted makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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