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Early spring...or poorly timed thaw...


Typhoon Tip

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Yuck, garbage everywhere, mixed in the snow, dog crap and urinate, man oh man. So how do you like your country home? Lots and lots of work I know but ahhhhhhhh.

LOL I grew up in the country (upstate NY), went to college in R.I., so I've been here before. Going urban was the thing to do after college, so my first 9-10 years out of college I worked in the cities. Didn't drive a car to work until I was in my mid-30's. Until then it was walk, or take a train to work.

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the problem for us will be the storm that comes after that, as we will have accumlating snow up until then.

im hoping as we trend closer the heights, which are pretty stout all the way across northern Canada, can keep that thing moving more W-E rather than cutting into james bay.

the euro the last couple runs has been backing off the building ridge/heights in the prairies at day 5-7, and it looks the latest GEM has backed off too. previous euro runs had a 552 ridge into central manitoba, today its down to about 540.

hopefully that trend can continue and we can ease that puppy across or just north of the international border, limiting damage.....there will be some i am fairly sure, question is how much.

One good thing with that storm, This run its so far north that qpf is pretty limited to light over our areas

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One good thing with that storm, This run its so far north that qpf is pretty limited to light over our areas

yeah thats the other possiblity i suppose.

yeah its going to warm up, but the question is how much for us.....the PV also is stronger on these latest euro runs than a couple days ago, and lurking off northern quebec. ....it wouldnt take too much of an adjustment to cool us off some.....but then we may risk the possibility of more rain.

im not ready to pack it in for our area next week.....i think we'll get snow leading into it, and then hopefully damage control, but of course it could all go in the crapper the next run.

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Working outside today, and while its cold, it certainly feels much different than mid Jan if the temps were the same, its quite comfortable. Interesting to see the models tick nw pretty much every run for later tonight into tomorrow, now looks like the ss of li and the island s and cape may see a few flakes, seeing how the models are not perfect, radar hallucinations on the south coast should be in full gear.

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yeah thats the other possiblity i suppose.

yeah its going to warm up, but the question is how much for us.....the PV also is stronger on these latest euro runs than a couple days ago, and lurking off northern quebec. ....it wouldnt take too much of an adjustment to cool us off some.....but then we may risk the possibility of more rain.

im not ready to pack it in for our area next week.....i think we'll get snow leading into it, and then hopefully damage control, but of course it could all go in the crapper the next run.

I think it would be kind of a no win situatuion, We get the pv to slide south we will get that low also south and your right end up with more rain, What i would like to see is both those clippers or miller b's trend stronger or cosolidate into one so that we sacrafice that gain with the warming we see right after limiting the damage

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Eh, looks real transient warmth ...about what we were discussing earlier in this thread, and is understandable. May be over done, too - there's that to consider, as the previous runs were not quite this emphatic, so continuity is always a concern. Already there is a strong -EPO signal developing on this run toward the end and there is even intense planetary wave toppling out of Alaska -

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Gets really cold again at end of Euro run....classic EPO cold dump for northern tier.

yeah that signal remains the same from yesterday so that's definitely a good thing and you could picture some kind of nice gradient setting up beyond day 9/10 where maybe that big ULL out west helps spit some pieces of energy off into the flow and give us overrunning events or something.

until then, i won't be shocked at all to see some pretty warm days in there next week. but that return to cold should help get us mentally through it...maybe even allow some of us to "enjoy" some milder weather.

depending on how things shake out exactly, you could also envision sunday and monday being a bit milder than they might first appear too. hopefully not, but if there's sun, both days would be relatively mild i think.

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the adiabatic process caused by downslope winds. berkshiritic flow. I'm cleaning the grooves on my golf clubs as we speak.

there is no such thing as: 'adiabatic process caused by downsloping' - I am not sure you know what these terms mean.

Adiabatic process refers to no exhange of heat from within a parcel of air to its surrounding, and is strictly a thermodynamic question.

Downsloping is when you move air from a higher elevation to a lower elevation, sometimes less commonly referred to as kadabatic wind flow.

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there is no such thing as: 'adiabatic process caused by downsloping' - I am not sure you know what these terms mean.

Adiabatic process refers to no exhange of heat from within a parcel of air to its surrounding, and is strictly a thermodynamic question.

Downsloping is when you move air from a higher elevation to a lower elevation, sometimes less commonly referred to as kadabatic wind flow.

compression of a gas through descending altitude, thereby increasing its temperature, is an adiabatic process, no?

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