1234snow

That storm over John will have to be watched closely as it moves eastward. Already pretty meaty.

Looks like a few dry days because the northwest flow kicks back in at the end of the week.

That pocket of storms popped up right over you and would not move east at all.

467 ACUS11 KWNS 251531 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251530 TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-251730- Mesoscale Discussion 1251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Areas affected...Portions of far southern KY...middle/eastern TN...western NC...and extreme southwestern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251530Z - 251730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging winds may gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of convection is ongoing late this morning across parts of south-central KY into middle TN. This activity is loosely tied to thunderstorms that occurred overnight and early this morning across the Upper Midwest. Well-below-severe wind gusts have been observed at various ASOS and KY Mesonet sites over the past hour or so, suggesting that the stronger velocities noted on area radars are not yet reaching the surface. The 12Z observed sounding from BNA shows a rich low-level airmass already in place across middle TN, with mid 60s surface dewpoints and 14 g/kg mean mixing ratio. A similar boundary-layer moisture profile will also exist across eastern TN and vicinity, downstream of the ongoing thunderstorms. As daytime heating warms surface temperatures into the 80s across this area over the next couple of hours, destabilization and erosion of lingering MLCIN should quickly occur. MLCAPE exceeding 1000-1500 J/kg seems increasingly likely by 17Z, and convection may become surface based by early afternoon. Although details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, there appears to be some potential for ongoing thunderstorms to consolidate into a loosely organized cluster while spreading east-southeastward across eastern TN and vicinity this afternoon. A veering boundary-layer wind profile observed on recent KOHX VWPs, and westerly winds strengthening with height through mid levels, will foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, aiding in some convective organization. Steepening low-level lapse rates ahead of the possible cluster should allow for a more efficient transfer of strong/gusty winds with downdrafts to the surface with time. Scattered damaging winds may become an increasing concern through the early afternoon, and isolated severe hail may occur with any supercell that can form/persist on the southwest flank of the cluster. While not immediately likely, observational trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance by early afternoon. ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 35038500 35188572 35738629 36348604 36858546 36968483 36888375 36718292 36468239 36178215 35778226 35458252 35168292 34998370 35038500

The current line in Kentucky may make it to the Valley/Knoxville area after lunch if it holds together.

Alot of days this month we have struggled to make it to 80. May not make it to 80 in many places this week. Hopefully much needed rains this week and not flooding for some spots. Knoxville area has had 3-5” of rain today estimated .

Tornado warning for Lee, Wise and Scott with some rotation over Pennington Gap.

Tornado warning now for Bland and Tazewell counties in Virginia.

A few tornado warnings in Kentucky. One in Richmond, KY is a small cell but has a nice hook already.

Some things you don’t see in a SPC enhanced outlook too much: “Some larger population centers in the risk area includes: Johnson City, TN...Kingsport, TN...Bristol, TN...Morristown, TN...Bristol, VA...” Also a 5% tornado area

I agree. The wind today was faster than the High Wind Warning day at least here.

Snow is almost falling from Coast to coast (Oregon/Cali coast all the way the across the Rockies to the Midwest and to the northeast all the way to Massachusetts coast)if you look at radar. Certainly a configuration I don’t remember seeing.

I’ve honestly not paid attention to soundings much before but I’ve noticed that on several models the modeled output is rain but the “best guess” precip type on the sounding is snow. Has anyone else noticed this in past events and if the “best guess” on soundings have been accurate?

The 0z HRRR has one incredible deformation band. Up to 3” of precip falls. Unfortunately it is modeled to be in the 40’s on the HRRR. About as painful to watch as it gets.

You were totally looking at the Euro in your meeting! Lol.

I’ll take this and call it a winter! Lol

Yep, that’s going into the Goofy Hall of Fame.

Light rain and 37 currently.

Little Sleet/snow shower in Kingsport

Time to fire up the 10 day lightning/thunder snow theory.

Nice little surprise here. Roads are now white and light snow falling. Temp is 24.

I think this would qualify as a “Blue Norther”! Except for the whole country. In this map is a observation of 52 degrees in Colorado. Which will below 0 very shortly. The 18z HRRR was very very cold Friday morning. It shows -15 up on Black Mountain on the KY/VA border. -10 or lower for the Plateau and SWVA. -3 around Chatty. -4 for Knoxville. -5 - -7 for TRI. Below 0 for the whole state. I really hope the HRRR is about 10 degrees too cold for the whole state. But we have saw the cold be deeper behind these fronts in the past.

The GFS finally caved that direction. It took baby steps every run. Hopefully the trend will stop and we can at least enjoy some backside flakes after the front comes through. Even with the -NAO/-AO and emerging PNA we still have to get lucky for it to snow here these days. Unfortunately like mentioned above there is no 50/50 low or lower heights in the Atlantic Canada region. So the -NAO block really isn’t blocking anything. I also think the little shortwave that comes through at the beginning of the week hurts us as well by allowing higher heights to build behind it.

12z ICON with a similar wild shift. It also dumps the trough in the west and gets a low to Wisconsin. Wasn’t close to this solution on this run before. Not being a Debby downer just relaying what I see that all 3 of the models so far (GFS, CMC ICON) have dug our TPV energy more into the western states. On the GFS it is perfect, on the other 2 it is cutter City. I suspect the Euro will have a change as well to a deeper trough.

The 12Z CMC came in wayyyyyyy different and dumps the trough in the west with no PNA ridge……. Then it cuts the low to Wisconsin and floods us with warm air/rain. The run before it it held the 500 low not digging much at all.