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1234snow

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Everything posted by 1234snow

  1. 1234snow
    Light rain and 37 currently.
  2. 1234snow
    Little Sleet/snow shower in Kingsport
  3. 1234snow
    Time to fire up the 10 day lightning/thunder snow theory.
  4. 1234snow
    Nice little surprise here. Roads are now white and light snow falling. Temp is 24.
  5. 1234snow
    I think this would qualify as a “Blue Norther”! Except for the whole country. In this map is a observation of 52 degrees in Colorado. Which will below 0 very shortly. The 18z HRRR was very very cold Friday morning. It shows -15 up on Black Mountain on the KY/VA border. -10 or lower for the Plateau and SWVA. -3 around Chatty. -4 for Knoxville. -5 - -7 for TRI. Below 0 for the whole state. I really hope the HRRR is about 10 degrees too cold for the whole state. But we have saw the cold be deeper behind these fronts in the past.
  6. 1234snow
    The GFS finally caved that direction. It took baby steps every run. Hopefully the trend will stop and we can at least enjoy some backside flakes after the front comes through. Even with the -NAO/-AO and emerging PNA we still have to get lucky for it to snow here these days. Unfortunately like mentioned above there is no 50/50 low or lower heights in the Atlantic Canada region. So the -NAO block really isn’t blocking anything. I also think the little shortwave that comes through at the beginning of the week hurts us as well by allowing higher heights to build behind it.
  7. 1234snow
    12z ICON with a similar wild shift. It also dumps the trough in the west and gets a low to Wisconsin. Wasn’t close to this solution on this run before. Not being a Debby downer just relaying what I see that all 3 of the models so far (GFS, CMC ICON) have dug our TPV energy more into the western states. On the GFS it is perfect, on the other 2 it is cutter City. I suspect the Euro will have a change as well to a deeper trough.
  8. 1234snow
    The 12Z CMC came in wayyyyyyy different and dumps the trough in the west with no PNA ridge……. Then it cuts the low to Wisconsin and floods us with warm air/rain. The run before it it held the 500 low not digging much at all.
  9. 1234snow
    I think we are starting to switch from “Will there be a cold shot and East coast storm?” to “How far south can the TPV lope drop south and deepen?” Obviously it is still 7 days out at this point which is a long way in modeling but todays trends were good.
  10. 1234snow
    That is immediately the event I thought when I saw the the 18z GFS. Almost 2 years to the day as well. This one might be on crack though compared to that temp wise.
  11. 1234snow
    This was well worth the read everyone. I’m going to start reading these discussions as they come out. Talks about how Atlantic wave breaking can keep the -NAO going longer, how the -PNA will break down and then come back later in the period, and how MJO may not influence the Asian jet where the convection is located.
  12. 1234snow
    Thanks! I read the sub forum everyday and watch each round of model runs. I normally don’t say much because y’all do a wonderful job of breaking the pattern down.
  13. 1234snow
    One thing I noticed on the 18z GFS and other model runs today (as well as ensembles) is the Greenland Block hangs on for most of the runs extended period. I believe that the block will be tough to break down completely as we head into the holidays. The longer the block holds the greater our chances. Surely one wave will hit. Right? Right? Lolz
  14. 1234snow
    My eyes may be playing tricks on me….. but if you look close you can see the actual flashes of lightning reflecting off other clouds in the eyewall.
  15. 1234snow
    Velocities of around 130mph are being shown from the Key west radar in the north and south quads of the storm. Appears to also show that the ERC is very close to complete.
  16. 1234snow
    18z HWRF completes the ERC soon, develops a big eye, and bombs Ian down to 928mb. I really hope that intensity is off. HMON is a more “reasonable” 939mb
  17. 1234snow
    Stupid question here…. Does the shape of Cuba’s coastline help to tighten up Ian’s core in this situation? The outer bands of convection seems to line up very well with the southern coastline currently as they rotate counter clockwise parallel to the shore.
  18. 1234snow
    A line of broken severe storms has moved off the mountains into the valley/Knoxville area with several severe warnings. Also there is a line of storms back in Illinois advancing southeast. Those probably won’t make it but an interesting flow in the storm directions today.
  19. 1234snow
    Just north of you across the KY line close to Jelico have received up to 6 inches of rain today.
  20. 1234snow
  21. 1234snow
    Next round of rain is moving in. Unfortunately WPC has placed Eastern KY and a small portion of SWVA in a moderate risk for flash flooding today. Hopefully that is just a precautionary measure due to the recent devastation. The rest of TN is in the slight category. Radar estimated that 4-5 inches of rain fell since Monday here at the house. No flooding issues here thankfully unlike our neighbors to the north and northwest in SWVA/KY. I finally got my jungle of a yard mowed on Saturday.
  22. 1234snow
    Had a big storm roll through around 2 am. Lot of lighting and heavy rain. Radar estimate is up to around 1.50 starting Monday. St. Louis, MO area getting rocked by historic flooding of up to a foot while cells are still training over the area.
  23. 1234snow
    Got hit twice today by storms. Radar estimate is around .75. New Tazewell, Tazewell, TN shows 2-3 inches of rain and under a FFW.
  24. 1234snow
    Some chunk of the Valley is under the slight risk for excessive rainfall for every day out to Day 5.
  25. 1234snow
    This summer has been so interesting. Periods of drought and heat then several days of good rain back to stifling heat. This weekend was a hot one but now back to several days of a good chance of rain.
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