Jump to content

1234snow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,725

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 1234snow

  1. 1234snow
    A few tornado warnings in Kentucky. One in Richmond, KY is a small cell but has a nice hook already.
  2. 1234snow
    Some things you don’t see in a SPC enhanced outlook too much: “Some larger population centers in the risk area includes: Johnson City, TN...Kingsport, TN...Bristol, TN...Morristown, TN...Bristol, VA...” Also a 5% tornado area
  3. 1234snow
    I agree. The wind today was faster than the High Wind Warning day at least here.
  4. 1234snow
    Snow is almost falling from Coast to coast (Oregon/Cali coast all the way the across the Rockies to the Midwest and to the northeast all the way to Massachusetts coast)if you look at radar. Certainly a configuration I don’t remember seeing.
  5. 1234snow
    I’ve honestly not paid attention to soundings much before but I’ve noticed that on several models the modeled output is rain but the “best guess” precip type on the sounding is snow. Has anyone else noticed this in past events and if the “best guess” on soundings have been accurate?
  6. 1234snow
    The 0z HRRR has one incredible deformation band. Up to 3” of precip falls. Unfortunately it is modeled to be in the 40’s on the HRRR. About as painful to watch as it gets.
  7. 1234snow
    You were totally looking at the Euro in your meeting! Lol.
  8. 1234snow
    I’ll take this and call it a winter! Lol
  9. 1234snow
    Yep, that’s going into the Goofy Hall of Fame.
  10. 1234snow
    Light rain and 37 currently.
  11. 1234snow
    Little Sleet/snow shower in Kingsport
  12. 1234snow
    Time to fire up the 10 day lightning/thunder snow theory.
  13. 1234snow
    Nice little surprise here. Roads are now white and light snow falling. Temp is 24.
  14. 1234snow
    I think this would qualify as a “Blue Norther”! Except for the whole country. In this map is a observation of 52 degrees in Colorado. Which will below 0 very shortly. The 18z HRRR was very very cold Friday morning. It shows -15 up on Black Mountain on the KY/VA border. -10 or lower for the Plateau and SWVA. -3 around Chatty. -4 for Knoxville. -5 - -7 for TRI. Below 0 for the whole state. I really hope the HRRR is about 10 degrees too cold for the whole state. But we have saw the cold be deeper behind these fronts in the past.
  15. 1234snow
    The GFS finally caved that direction. It took baby steps every run. Hopefully the trend will stop and we can at least enjoy some backside flakes after the front comes through. Even with the -NAO/-AO and emerging PNA we still have to get lucky for it to snow here these days. Unfortunately like mentioned above there is no 50/50 low or lower heights in the Atlantic Canada region. So the -NAO block really isn’t blocking anything. I also think the little shortwave that comes through at the beginning of the week hurts us as well by allowing higher heights to build behind it.
  16. 1234snow
    12z ICON with a similar wild shift. It also dumps the trough in the west and gets a low to Wisconsin. Wasn’t close to this solution on this run before. Not being a Debby downer just relaying what I see that all 3 of the models so far (GFS, CMC ICON) have dug our TPV energy more into the western states. On the GFS it is perfect, on the other 2 it is cutter City. I suspect the Euro will have a change as well to a deeper trough.
  17. 1234snow
    The 12Z CMC came in wayyyyyyy different and dumps the trough in the west with no PNA ridge……. Then it cuts the low to Wisconsin and floods us with warm air/rain. The run before it it held the 500 low not digging much at all.
  18. 1234snow
    I think we are starting to switch from “Will there be a cold shot and East coast storm?” to “How far south can the TPV lope drop south and deepen?” Obviously it is still 7 days out at this point which is a long way in modeling but todays trends were good.
  19. 1234snow
    That is immediately the event I thought when I saw the the 18z GFS. Almost 2 years to the day as well. This one might be on crack though compared to that temp wise.
  20. 1234snow
    This was well worth the read everyone. I’m going to start reading these discussions as they come out. Talks about how Atlantic wave breaking can keep the -NAO going longer, how the -PNA will break down and then come back later in the period, and how MJO may not influence the Asian jet where the convection is located.
  21. 1234snow
    Thanks! I read the sub forum everyday and watch each round of model runs. I normally don’t say much because y’all do a wonderful job of breaking the pattern down.
  22. 1234snow
    One thing I noticed on the 18z GFS and other model runs today (as well as ensembles) is the Greenland Block hangs on for most of the runs extended period. I believe that the block will be tough to break down completely as we head into the holidays. The longer the block holds the greater our chances. Surely one wave will hit. Right? Right? Lolz
  23. 1234snow
    My eyes may be playing tricks on me….. but if you look close you can see the actual flashes of lightning reflecting off other clouds in the eyewall.
  24. 1234snow
    Velocities of around 130mph are being shown from the Key west radar in the north and south quads of the storm. Appears to also show that the ERC is very close to complete.
  25. 1234snow
    18z HWRF completes the ERC soon, develops a big eye, and bombs Ian down to 928mb. I really hope that intensity is off. HMON is a more “reasonable” 939mb
×
×
  • Create New...