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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I wonder if in the end my area up into CT gets the worst middle finger imaginable in that the s/w continues to trend worse and inevitably the whole thing ticks north so even places like DXR end up just seeing paltry amounts of sleet
  2. SnowGoose69
    This may be the usual head fake south we see on these events at this range then immediately they go north again inside 48. The problem here though is the S/W is getting crappier and the blocking is becoming stronger. Its possible this is a legit change and probably why I'd be wary of hoping the next system does not end up like the ICON has being over North Carolina
  3. SnowGoose69
    Verbatim if you take a mix of the guidance this is as close to 12/2005 as you can get or maybe 1/3/03 where it may be 31 and snowing in Mt Vernon and 34 and rain or 32 and sleet in LGA...the storm setups are nothing alike but you can see even on the warmest setups the metro winds go 120-080-020 so its never gonna get above 33-34 probably even on central or eastern LI. This is automatically a rain event in December but here it may be hours on end of PLRA or PL...I definitely could see places like EWR or NYC being entirely sleet without a doubt.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Most likely...I still question if we do not even end top 5...it won't be hard to randomly get a 5 inch storm if the ensemble pattern verifies
  5. SnowGoose69
    I'm filing a disclaimer complaint with Upton if CPK/NYC gets 1 inch of sleet with this and then adds 1.5 or less elsewhere and we break the record lol....sleet normally counts as snow...well should I say OFFICIALLY does but in this case we should make an exception if it ruins the record
  6. SnowGoose69
    The 06z Euro is the closest thing to the NAM right now for tomorrow afternoon and evening
  7. SnowGoose69
    With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March
  8. SnowGoose69
    Its been on the snow train here for both 2/25 and 2/28 so far for sure
  9. SnowGoose69
    There are some Mets who are sorta on the reverse train like Rayo was in December telling everyone the event was gonna be an inland or Lakes event I have talked to several Mets in the last 24 hours and seen some on social media hyping that this thing is gonna be a NYC or Philly south event and we are gonna see all the models out of nowhere shift in the next 24-48 hours. I am not seeing it though.
  10. SnowGoose69
    That is a classic system where models will underestimate any overrunning til very late...the southern area is gonna miss but I'd watch inside 48 to see if suddenly we start seeing a widespread area of light snows from CNJ into SNE...the Euro has been showing it somewhat and the RGEM/NAM did last night before losing it today
  11. SnowGoose69
    I think the NATL side setup is fine but the issue is I cannot see anything to argue for the system ejecting from the SW and Plains to come out flatter or weaker through the Midwest and Lakes which is really what everyone south of 90 or even along it needs
  12. SnowGoose69
    In this case the airmass in place before might actually allow for a lengthy period of snow in areas which begin as snow in SNE. The wildly fast flip from SN to PL usually only happens in SWFE type events where you have a majorly stale airmass in place or one that is not that cold but in this case if you're in Worcester for example its established for awhile
  13. SnowGoose69
    I'd probably feel pretty good in ORH or BOS but way less so in BDL or PVD
  14. SnowGoose69
    If the high is more south it can work but that high is just way too far N and E IMO. Even then you still changeover but in this setup I'd be surprised if NYC did better than just some PL at the start of the event
  15. SnowGoose69
    I jokingly said in the NYC forum if you're between BDL and BDR right now I like the chances of the 25th event producing more snow than I do this one...or the system later next week. I'd be surprised if this ended up being a major event even in a place like interior central CT
  16. SnowGoose69
    I like the weekend overrunning better than I like the 28th event lol and that ain't saying much. Talk to me about the storm later next week once perhaps confluence and blocking is more established but I'd be surprised if even places like central CT saw big snows from this event, the primary low due to the pattern is probably gonna get too far north for the confluence to matter much. I could still see the weekend event producing an inch of snow in parts of the area despite models being paltry as of now on QPF
  17. SnowGoose69
    I'd still watch Saturday for something as well...it may end up more north but someone probably sees light snows
  18. SnowGoose69
    The tendency being away from that all winter is partly what makes me think this has a chance...virtually nothing has gotten sheared like that all season
  19. SnowGoose69
    Sat/Sun is the best chance we are gonna get for the forseeable future in the NYC/BOS corridor...we have to hope the meat grinder idea is wrong and this comes back.
  20. SnowGoose69
    You can argue models shearing the crap outta that storm at this range is precisely where we want to see it now...but I felt for sure that Sat/Sun was our chance as the preceeding system was gonna maybe suppress heights enough we'd get a rare SWFE type event where we were all snow here
  21. SnowGoose69
    You won't get the NAO/SE ridge connection with shorter wavelengths...this is why in the last few years we've often had the most effective NAO effect in Mar/Apr
  22. SnowGoose69
    Its gonna be way harder to get that crazy hookup with the wavelengths in March...I'd bet my life it won't happen
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its cold somewhere...Cordoba Argentina just hit 38F breaking their all time record low for February
  24. SnowGoose69
    I'd imagine probably the fact there has been ridging in the 50/50 region and not lower heights like is typical is why
  25. SnowGoose69
    The GEFS has sucked lately beyond D10 so we can probably toss its idea of a bad pattern relative to the GEPS/EPS which have sort of owned it past D10 since about 1/10
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