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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Looks like we will use up our good winter weather pattern in October. When's the next chance of severe weather? UPDATE: 12Z Tue Euro, I was only joking!
  2. nrgjeff
    Regarding the PV, Southern Hemisphere, et al. Congrats Mid South! Here in southeast Tennessee I'll enjoy our obligatory SER anyway.
  3. nrgjeff
    Size of Ian created so much more ACE than Charley. Unfortunately ACE has consequences.
  4. nrgjeff
    Yeah @Save the itchy algae! it'll be windy through the Mountains this weekend. I think 15-30 mph in the Valley; mostly 15-20 mph with G30 mph. Should (I hope) be too early to screw up mountain leaves. Then one can check rainfall forecasts at WPC or NHC. I hate what's happening in Cuba; Ian acts like no land is there. I'm also quite concerned for Florida.
  5. nrgjeff
    Yeah it can happen. Was it Opal? Storm in the mid-1990s crapped out on the way in. However they've gone the other way recently. Florida must remain on guard regardless of Category. Big wind field would maintain energy.
  6. nrgjeff
    Pretty ludicrous tbh. it appears the models missed a little short-wave ridge north of it. Said short-wave ridging did two things. Typhoon turned left with RI. Andrew pulled a stunt like that east of Florida.
  7. nrgjeff
    Clearwater and St. Pete at least looks in the right side passing, if not worse. @Dbullsfan22 I'm already looking for non-met friends down there; otherwise, the Board normally does not do that type of forecast.
  8. nrgjeff
    I know seasonal forecasting is precarious.. However I think I declare the Vols are back! In even strangers news, Kansas could get ranked soon.
  9. nrgjeff
    Still seems on track. Chatty will depend on a lucky track. Agree the Mid-South looks better for snow than the true Tennessee Valley. TRI has that nerve racking taking turns with wind direction between Kingsport and JC. Probably splits a little both ways. Upslope one side. Heartbreak ridge the other. Clint Eastwood movie reference.
  10. nrgjeff
    Heat next week looks like moderate humidity and low temps in the 60s; so, it won't be horrible. Even if we get well into the 90s it won't feel anything like August. Lower sun angle too. Though computer models have amped up next week the last 36 hours or so, just overnight some dents in the ridge show by Day 10. With zig zag models we are due for a downtrend. Just one more reason it won't be too bad next week. However AN temps will probably be dominant the rest of the month. Enjoy mornings like the last couple when we get them. Eventually fall wx will be consistent, right when football gets back into the heart of conference play.
  11. nrgjeff
    Yeah I agree with John above. February chart is as classic as it gets! I-40 specials; crap south. Can you hear my dripping cynicism as I type? Chattanooga blanked probably verifies! Now I also agree with Jax that severe could get going again fall and winter. How about January snow Hoosier Alley with tornadoes Dixie Alley? Well probably more likely Nov-Dec and again in Feb. If that happens in January. Oh wait, it did this year! PDO is looking quite bearish Southeast. Mid South and of course I-40 can still get it from cutters. HSV to CHA, I'll see you under the grungy meso this winter!
  12. nrgjeff
    It's been a minute so I'm catching up. Yes @jaxjagman we had BN fireflies in Chattanooga. I was disappointed because I wanted to show the Baby. Older kid is just like whatever Dad. Can we get the telescope out? So there's hope! How about them Vols!? Road win at Pitt was gutsy. Probably would have won big at home. Kansas also with the road win at West Virginia! Hopefully many of their annoying basketball fans saw that, lol. The other upsets mentioned above @John1122 were good entertainment. Wisconsin might get honorable mention for the choke trophy. Marshall really appreciated the win at ND as they soaked in the moment with graciousness. Cool!
  13. nrgjeff
    Maybe the Atlantic will give us something to watch. Wall of shear in the Caribbean at the moment. Euro wants to weaken it midweek but the damage may be done. Don't forget to visit the main Tropical Headquarters too. Meanwhile in the Pacific both the US Navy and Japan Met Agency have typhoons going straight west toward China. Forecast ends still at sea. Anyway that could bump up the ABNA which is not a cool weather pattern for North America. No surprise model extended forecasts (1-15 day) warmed up over the weekend. It's not crazy hot, but annoying after hope last week. September is starting to look less cool, but on the optimistic side there's no reason to go blowtorch either.
  14. nrgjeff
    My memorable trifecta was Gilbert, Hugo and Andrew. Each one was worse than the other for the US. Andrew had that pause with some shear; then it passed, and Andrew turned left with RI because to a short-wave ridge. That little feature was remarkable. As for the proximity to landfall RI, Camille excepted, storms usually can't maintain Cat 5 for more than 12-24 hours. It's probably a mix of issues researched. Perfect conditions are rare. Momentum does not last forever in the Atmo. Energy is used and the sea surface is churned. The big ones still carry their ACE - like Katrina. But we have to watch out for those named above that bombed right before and into landfall. Back to my trifecta. Gilbert was the first one I tracked really seriously. Hugo shocked me into SC. Andrew was (for me) THEE storm of record until Katrina - which shocked me to a new level. Now we get shockers more frequently.
  15. nrgjeff
    Tis the season for tropical systems to increase model volatility. I was looking at some ensemble spread, reasonably tight through day 7 and then blows wide open by day 10 (looks more like day 14). Late August things. Short-term late next week toward Labor Day I could see Tennessee Valley temps verify above current forecast. If a tropical system enters the Gulf and approaches the US (even if just on its way to elsewhere) we'll probably get subsidence heat on the north side. Oh joy! Long-term we have Pacific action ramping up. Global models can't decide where to put the resulting troughs and ridges in the North Pacific into Alaska. China landfalls would amp up the ABNA and could be warm. Japan recurves could amp up Alaska, and bring our lovely East trough. Are you ready for some football? Weather. Atlantic also stays active on Ensembles the full two weeks. Deeper into September a tropical cyclone to our east can bring down cooler air. West still acts like a warm front, heat humidity and all. My gut is saying reasonable September temps - for the first time in years.
  16. nrgjeff
    Actually feels cool nights and mornings now. My blood thinned out like living in Houston, after weeks of 95 high 75 low. Looks like Sept may be reasonable there. However I laughed when I saw this on Oklahoma football Twitter: Fans being treated for heat exhaustion while OU plays cupcakes in September is a rite of passage. Been the same around here recent years for the SEC. Here's to actual football weather instead for football season.
  17. nrgjeff
    The two short-waves passing through today and Wednesday.. Can we instead save them for winter? The stalled front to our south included.
  18. nrgjeff
    Gotta choose seats wisely. So I'm not the only one? I always consider sun angle when I look at the seating chart for any outdoor sport. At the risk of jinxing it, shhh, glimmers of hope are showing up for a not hot Sept. Fingers crossed!
  19. nrgjeff
    Can't wait until those obs are snow bands. Yeah I said it! Since we're all thinking it, somebody has to be the weenie.
  20. nrgjeff
    The +PNA should keep moderate temps in here for a couple weeks. Humidity will ebb and flow, but I think we'll get a few nice days weekend into early next week. The more humid days will promote scattered t-showers though. Looking ahead into Sept. Leaning toward a return to a drier weather. I think just once or twice in the 2000s La Nina has been mild in Sept. Otherwise, go with summer dragging out (even after a moderate August) per recent years. Might put that us under a SER, another frequent visitor recent Septembers. Forecast does not consider tropical entanglements. Eventually the Atlantic will wake up in late August like every year.
  21. nrgjeff
    Second hand Ob from Downtown Chattanooga Wednesday: Six teachers lost cars (totaled) to flooding at Battle Academy. Parking overflows (valid pun) onto street parking. Those cars suffered the worst water damage. Meanwhile about 10 miles away I have standing water in my back yard, which is usually a cool season thing. I figure August sun is still high enough to evaporate it quickly. Compared to dry 3-4 weeks ago, oh how things change! Might go back the other way in Sept. I'll save it for the pinned forecast thread.
  22. nrgjeff
    Huntsville radar out for the month. Major upgrade in progress. Why August? The South can have flooding rains including tropical cyclone remnants. Severe wx is also possible if TC remnants go hybrid. I figure a fixed number of maintenance teams are available. They rotate from site to site. Somebody is going to get the outage at a bad time. Might be time to look at the budget. Common sense suggestions from Appalachia.
  23. nrgjeff
    Primary pattern I'm going with persistent SER bigger than what I infer from NOAA. In fact late fall could get really dry again. Not looking like a fall severe wx season; maybe the Midwest. Secondary pattern should be better. Occasionally those La Nina West troughs will couple with AK ridge and lumber east through the Mid South. A good one sliding east rather than cutting would benefit all. Overall I'm AN temps entire forum and BN winter fun east section of the forum. West half could have some winter excitement. At least a clean SER is sunny! Note that cynicism plays a large role in my forecast until about November.
  24. nrgjeff
    The case for tough love and watering cut-off in July is made. Lawn is deep green again. I watered in June for the early season, but only every 3rd day. Make it root deep. Even if we flash drought (unlikely now) it should be fine.. Sod is the exception. Must be babied all season long. I have to guess sod in this area is in good shape now. I have standing water in low spots. What a regime change!
  25. nrgjeff
    Complaining occasionally works. Got a thunderstorm last night. And now...
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