nrgjeff

Oh wow Nov-Dec 1989 was ludicrous cold in the Plains. I figure the same here? December 1989 KCMO set its all-time record low two nights in a row at -22 but that's at MCI which was built in 1973. MKC got close to its all-time and it's been around much longer. MKC is in the Downtown heat island, so many went with the all-time story out of MCI.

European is markedly better than the GFS for a clipper right after Thanksgiving. Euro punts the midweek rain. So, the Euro shows great snowmaking followed by some natural snow showers in the Mountains. Black Friday opt outside. If the forecast holds, the choice is clear. In contrast to tracking zig-zags; usually, a big flip in the continental pattern like that holds.

A few days ago that was severe coming up from the Gulf. Now it's a clipper. Trends like that are bullish cold, but I remain pessimistic. Anytime I'm optimistic it's a jinx. Getting serious, two streams were always progged for Thanksgiving. Appears the northern one is now dominant vs previous southern. The obligatory Midwest winter storm for Thanksgiving is now forecast. If that holds, I'll be in the Southeast Mountains thread.

Thankfully I missed all the news from Poland to Florida last night. Also did Taylor Swift have some sort of big ticket sale? It was the Champions Classic! Dickie V was back. All basketball baby! Michigan State "upset" Kentucky. MSU was already tested at Gonzaga while everyone else played small schools. No surprise MSU covered the spread, but I was surprised they won outright. Kansas upset Duke with stifling defense and coordinated (assists) efficient offense. It was a thing of beauty. Need to see the Vols do similar things. They have the talent. Colorado zone D just frustrated them, which is common early season. By January I bet Tennessee will shred any zone D. Did I mention I can't stand zone D? Unless my team is using it, lol!

Convection is trying to get into better (for cold) West Pac phases. However when the only Invest is in the Indian ocean, I say the muddled tie goes to the warm signal Indo Subcontinent. Keep in mind my job here is Devil's Advocate; so, I could be wrong. Except I'll be right in southeast Tenn.

You love to see it. I'm feeling like some early Thanksgiving week

My favorite chart explains a lot today. Not shown, Rutgers snow cover is AN in the NH. Below we see high pressure all over Canada; hence, it's cold in the Lower 48. Note that Siberia is already back in low pressure. That's not just Putin's approval rating. I believe we get a mild couple weeks starting around Thanksgiving. The big question is whether this record -EPO in November (currently) foreshadows more blocking much of this winter. I'd really like to see a full cycle through both patterns. I thought we'd know more by Champions Classic Tuesday tomorrow. It'll have to be the Thanksgiving week basketball tournaments.

I wasn't able to watch much of the game. From what you post, and looking at the gamecast graph on ESPN I can deduce Colorado played zone D. Is that right? Vols need to penetrate that. Drive inside. High-Low is OK but don't just chuck 3s without probing. Otherwise, every team will play zone. I can't stand zone D. It should be punished with drives inside, drawing fouls, and even taking offensive fouls to establish physicality.

If the mountains were not there, winters would be much better in East Tenn. However the Carolina cliff diving would be even worse, lol!

I'll take an order of Holiday severe weather.

Tennessee Football had a nice win over evil Mizzou. Today Tennessee men's basketball hosts Colorado. College basketball begins for real, vs a major. Then Tuesday is the Champions Classic! Life is better than I indicated in the main weather thread, haha.

The rain is needed. For southeast Tennessee the precipitation type question is answered by an old rock ballad. Cold November Rain by G&R. This overcast has me feeling very pessimistic about everything. No snow this winter, haha.

This helps explain the incoming cold pattern. High press eastern Siberia plays nicely with the AK 500 mb ridge forecast on models. Snow cover is also AN (Rutgers map not shown). Note snowcover is worthless without pressure context. Low press / high snow is stormy and mild. High press high snow sets the table for cold if it's delivered. Looking ahead, models don't keep the cold pattern long. However it bears watching. If the cold hangs in longer than a couple weeks, it could be the November preview of winter deal. Of course a quick strong mild recovery may also be a winter preview. We'll know more after the Champions Classic Novie 15th, because college basketball has all the answers, haha!

If the upcoming AK ridge driven cold pattern is brief; then, we can get back to a more La Nina warm pattern. It would tee up chances for late autumn and early winter severe.

Please do not share the first image because it is a subscription. Does it look so familiar around here? Cold is coming, but could be very modulated into the shallow SER. Too early in the season to undercut. My favorite pressure chart is mixed signals; so of course, I'm bearish East Tenn. Maybe the Mid-South? I'm not sure if winter or severe, lol!

UK Met Office just went cooler than normal UK through Jan. However they do not forecast for mainland Europe and certainly not North America. Still, their NAO forecast plays a big role, so... For EU energy security I hope Europe is mild, but we can't control any of that. US is fine either way. Yes I believe SER will be the dominant weather pattern in La Nina. However a colder secondary pattern is likely, maybe stout once or twice, esp Mid South. Nina is variable and the NAO may get negative at times. Check of my favorite 7-day mean surface pressure anomaly echos my mixed sentiment. For the most part cold and stormy is locked up Arctic. No big Arctic highs. However some is spilling into China and North America. Press chart with temperature colors.. Bonus. Australia is colder than normal with that South Pole block from hell.

Yes it's a warm look. Sea level press anomalies 7-day mean. Instead of ridging in Siberia and Canada, low press locks cold North.

Chattanooga cold rain ending before it changes to snow looks legit.

Winter weather at Halloween is becoming a tradition, esp if you count cold rain. However Chatty had flurries one recent Halloween. I prefer severe wx but whatever. Actually if some things come together right early next week, but they won't.

Tennessee Volunteers would beat the KC Chiefs. Sunday pissed me off, but Saturday was so much fun!

Looks like a warm 11-15 day period to close out October. November is very up in the air with competing influences. I'll get serious about a winter outlook in early November.

Looks like we will use up our good winter weather pattern in October. When's the next chance of severe weather? UPDATE: 12Z Tue Euro, I was only joking!

Regarding the PV, Southern Hemisphere, et al. Congrats Mid South! Here in southeast Tennessee I'll enjoy our obligatory SER anyway.

Size of Ian created so much more ACE than Charley. Unfortunately ACE has consequences.

Yeah @Save the itchy algae! it'll be windy through the Mountains this weekend. I think 15-30 mph in the Valley; mostly 15-20 mph with G30 mph. Should (I hope) be too early to screw up mountain leaves. Then one can check rainfall forecasts at WPC or NHC. I hate what's happening in Cuba; Ian acts like no land is there. I'm also quite concerned for Florida.