nrgjeff
-
Posts
4,030 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by nrgjeff
-
After that said system, models try to break the cold. Warm front would make sense after a last over-runing event. Or, you know, there's a strato warming event forecast at the same time. Release or Reload?
-
Pain is part of following snow in the South. Same system dropped 6 inches 10 miles to my northwest, Soddy Daisy north of Chattanooga. Eastern part of Chatty proper got nothing, nada, zilch. I get sharp cut-offs, but that was a new level of cruelty. Think positive thoughts. I believe cold air will be in place. Handoff issues are a risk; and related, the lower precip rates could allow the surface warm nose. GFS can't decide whether to screw Middle Tennessee or the Great Valley. We've seen both either side of the Plateau. Euro has decreasing precip rates but holds the temps in line. Could still be a low spot at the handoff, but the Euro doesn't really blank that spot (wherever it ends up). Or, perhaps we get a classic snow for everyone slider!
-
There is a risk of a handoff debacle, you know when the Olympic relay runners drop the baton. However I'm not going to fret over that on the ECMWF yet 5 days out. I'll still take the Euro risk over the GFS surface warm surface nose rubbish. The latter is particularly annoying. Just get the cold air locked in for once! Getting back to the current system, yeah @Holston_River_Rambler it over achieved in a few areas. KCMO had thunder snow. That's always a big score.
-
Chattanooga temp is dropping during the day! That's rare as air tries to work over the Plateau. Is Hell freezing over? Perhaps it's just the beginning of a good winter weather pattern. I have almost forgotten what that is. Models have a buffet line the next 10-15 days if we can avoid major disappointment. My thoughts on late week are in that thread.
-
I just got back from a week-long vacation. I see y'all saved the best for later this week. Thank you! GFS has surface warm nose problems, which is related to the DGZ* problems (few posts above). But the GFS still has greater snowfall than the Euro. What a silly model! ECWMF has a more consistent snow profile (thickness temps) no sounding available my preferred site. EC is lighter total precip, but I prefer the EC over that GFS warm nose crap. *lighter precip. warmer sfc temps
-
Getting caught up. Y'all write a lot overnight, lol! Re the Tomer Burg tweet(s) yeah blocking sometimes goes longer than progged. I feel like that held truer a decade ago. Seems that climate change also means less stable blocking patterns. However blocking can still be quite intense when it's on. Overnight both models dried out a little on the 6-10 day winter precip. (06Z GFS exception NY) Still got fronts, but not much action. How about severe wx January 5-6? Then they introduce another chance of snow in the 11-15 day. Just keeps pushing out. Closing positive. We all know if we are going to get thumped it'll show up like 3 days out. Ripple in the stream escalates. Let's hope!
-
Yeah that's true. Here in Chattanoga we know if it's coming from Alabama it's gonna hit the fan. If it's coming over the Plateau it's not making it in here. I apply the rule to both severe and snow. The other thing about thunder... Snow the next week? Just not IMBY, lol!
-
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
All I want for Christmas is you! Whoever has not posted in a while, and anybody out in West Tennesse and Memphis. -
Quick look at 00Z ensembles. We can see from members and operationals that we have chances of good things, and chances of typical disappointment. Ensembles generally reflect the two less than ideal (but better than average) scenarios. Euro goes cold fast, but behind a quickly moving New Year's system. GFS has a more southern track, and a day later which makes sense south, but cold air is not in place. Either of those scenarios sound more realistic than a big ol' snowstorm, but anything is possible. It's still Day 7-8. Perhaps by the weekend we can talk about more details. Hopefully we avoid a debacle and instead escalate.
-
GFS tried to dump the cold West around Thanksgiving and it ended up barreling east. I'm normally quick to jump on the West first deal, with stubborn SER, but not this time. GFS has a history as noted above. Finally the AI versions strongly favor the Euro. Even the AI version of the GFS caves to the Euro. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Enjoy the NBA Christmas lineup.
- 409 replies
-
- 11
-
-
They both still see that system but of course it's Day 12. Either way, evidence is building for a cold pattern starting a few days after the New Year.
-
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
nrgjeff replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks warm between Christmas and New Years. Warm Hanukkah. One way or another I have to use this.
-
It's a good sell signal. When they get too bullish, sell natural gas. Not trading advice! I don't trade gas. At least seasonable cold if not colder is still on tap for the first work week of January. Right during the warm holidays will be when to buy gas. Again not advice.
-
Hamilton Co. special weather statement is achieved. Guess it's not bad for December. It's not severe but it's not coal in my stocking either.
-
Rare good news from me.. AI versions have another sharp cold front around Dec. 20. Weeklies hint at it, but the AI version is full tilt cold into the East. The AI versions have been first to sniff out cold before. They typically don't just false alarm like the GFS. We'll see. If they keep stacking up wins I may have to convert to the school of machine learning. I'm just talking temps. If one wants snow in southern Tennessee... The only way to win is not to play. -Wargames
-
European Monthlies are severe all winter.
-
Wow that's the same system I thought I'd jinxed, when it cut at the Mid-South. In the last two days we've gone from severe, to blah rain, to possible winter precip. Not bad!
-
Mele Kalikimaka - Merry Christmas in Hawaiin. I'm buying into the warm pattern flip middle of December. Asian weather pattern situation is out of phase for Siberian delivery to North America. East China might get one more shot of cold. However the forecast troughing in the GOA is pretty bearish for North America.
-
Hopefully we can catch up on rainfall via severe weather. Sorry y'all that's all I have today. Required a flood light to see Chatty snow flurries last night.
-
Doughnuts in the parking lot! I really miss that. I have not seen a good snow since before the Pandemic.
-
Yes the MJO would favor another cold shot. CFS dives it down the Plains and it fails to get east. Honestly that's pretty believable. As for next week, y'all knew I was going to rattle the severe sabre.. Can we get some severe weather?
-
It'll probably cut. I should have known a Met posting jinxes it every time! In more serious topics @Daniel Boone I'm sorry for your loss, especially wife and immediate family. As for weather, we probably need to get some work done before the pattern flips warm mid-Dec. I like chances north of I-40 for two or three little events. I have no idea about the big pattern changer. Still second week, so I guess there is no reason to celebrate or lament model runs. Manic Panic Meter can be engaged in about a week, ha!
-
Happy Thanksgiving! Models have a Miller A the second Thursday of December, so day 14-15. I'm normally not interested in something beyond Day 7. However a big system would fit the conceptual model ending the cold weather pattern. Get a big snow; then, turn mild. Oh yeah thunder the following week. Can I get snow and severe in December? For now, everyone have a blessed Thanksgiving. We have sports, food and family teed up!
-
Yeah that AIFS has sniffed out trouble before and been right. That could be the final core dump before the said January thaw starts in mid-December. This could have December 2005 vibes with the cold start and then torch. I was in KCMO in 2005 and we got a great snow the middle of December. Unfortunately I see nothing like that in the cards for southeast Tenn. Never know I-40 north. Otherwise a waste of a pattern on cold and dry is a Southeast tradition right up there with the Iron Bowl.
-
View outside the window can explain a lot. Daniel has snow. I see blue sky. Both were forecast. Though my head knows, my heart remains really bearish for the entire winter. Thanksgiving we could have severe weather! I suppose that means snow the following week? Just not IMBY. It's also possible we're both right. North of I-40 could benefit from cold intrusions. South of I-40 we'll look forward to severe weather all winter. My more serious post this morning is in the December thread. Still bearish, but maybe not wall-to-wall torch. I believe the SER is the primary winter pattern. Right now we're going into the secondary pattern. Cold, with intermittent warm severe wx.
