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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    FWIW this weekend, the NBM high-res ensemble in on board with light snow northeast Tenn. plus the usual Upper Plateau and of course Mountains. Ensemble product isn't picking up on what MRX has in the forecaster's discussion AFD for overnight, but some short-term high-res models pick up on the said flurries or snow showers tonight. Also tonight, freezing fog in the MEM CWA is another issue worth noting. No new accum. Just possible early Wednesday travel headaches.
  2. nrgjeff
    Oh brother! I was in the middle of relo from DFW to CHA. For Christmas I told my wife I'd fly back to DFW in hopes of warmer weather. She asked about snow here. Keep in mind a month out. I said no way! Snows in Chatty and we miss the white Christmas. Worse yet, it was a cold rain in DFW around 40 deg. Anyway that's not happening again this weekend. I'm too traumatized by the memory to forecast greater detail, ha! That's one I'd never get over, except we had a saving grace actually a year prior. DFW snow showers and dusting+ Christmas Eve 2009.
  3. nrgjeff
    BNA 00Z sounding is still saturated to 700 mb. Can't dry out the column once saturated to 400 mb. Could be some super cooled freezing drizzle across the Valley when it gets cold enough - if that sounding holds. Would be the first time I have seen Chattanooga fail to dry out in a cold chasing rain system. Well why not? System has yet another curveball.
  4. nrgjeff
    Sounding is still saturated to 700 mb. Takes some time to dry out when it was up to 400 mb. I'm thinkin' some under the radar snow showers in parts of our region. My other thought locally is freezing drizzle with super-cooled water droplets. Everything about -5 no dendrites but freezing drizzle. I made the call that cold chasing rain in Chattanooga would dry out. If not it's literally the first time in my LIFE that doesn't verify. Well sh!t everything else about this storm was whacked!
  5. nrgjeff
    USA today made their Data free today for power outages. Map is a little more user friendly than poweroutages dot us but the latter updates faster and has Local Power Companies. OFF THE GRID: United States Power Outage Tracker | usatoday.com Both sites show the shock and awe. Some areas are 100% dark. In some cases a TVA reconnect would help, but the Local Company would still be mostly out. Other cases it might actually be the entire distribution system - I sure hope not! Unbelievable Lewis Co. Next one north Hickman Co. is 97% out.
  6. nrgjeff
    Wow that's a bad combo. Lots of moderate rain still. Was hoping the Nashville Metro could get a few more hours >32. Anyone up on Signal Mountain above Chattanooga? Just rain in town, but I figure <32 for the duration on the Mountain. Out near Oxford MS some EMs posted it sounded like a war. Trees pop ever few minutes. That blue/green light when transformers fail.
  7. nrgjeff
    Wouldn't be the first time. Won't be the last time. Re below: Yeah some models have a little back side. Chatty won't get anything that set-up, but it could be a nice little all-snow dessert at the end for points north and east.
  8. nrgjeff
    FZRA and 30 here but not adding any ice in East Brainerd, Chattanooga. My guess is the ground picked up some solar insolation through the clouds. Metal is getting some new ice but even the bushes are not accruing. We'll see how it goes after sunset. It's going to be a buzzer beater, since I'm also watching a ton of basketball. Warm nose or CAD wrap? That's for the current wave. Sunday looks safely rain in Chattanooga until the very end and light. As we cautiously let our guard down east, keep those out west in our thoughts. Many places that had sleet have switched over to FZRA. It's moderate and with several hours to go; then, round 2 tomorrow.
  9. nrgjeff
    End of the month system still shows up on GFS and AIFS Euro AI. Other ensembles are of course all over the place. That'll also have implications on the High Risk for much below normal temps from CPC.
  10. nrgjeff
    Memphis looks to keep mostly snow and sleet this first wave. Concerns remain on Sunday. Reliable models are split between more sleet or a slug of freezing rain. Nashville is of course subject to everything running cold. Several hours of all rain off ramp is in jeopardy. Sleet remains an exit ramp. Otherwise, major ice storm there - continuation of North Miss to southern Mid-Tenn. Chattanooga will stay ice longer than forecast into tonight. CAD is c0ck blocking the warm nose.
  11. nrgjeff
    I want to make sure that's not Barrons Wx. Their official page is good. They were a major pioneer in weather radar display for commercial use. Much respect! I'm just struggling with his forecasting lane.
  12. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga is all freezing rain. Light at the moment - mercifully. No more sleet. Radar above confirms it's all rain aloft. QPF is going to be all ice until sometime this evening. Temps are way under forecast and cooler models keep it below freezing until later in the evening.
  13. nrgjeff
    Yes @Knoxtron that's the line, but keep in mind it's aloft. Surface manifestation can vary. Also with ice it's not a clear rain/snow line. Otherwise all snow north of it right now. Mixed variations of pain south of it. My driveway in east Chattanooga mostly thawed thanx to apparently enough solar radiation coming through the clouds. Temp is 30. Couple hours ago I thought my glacier of the week had started. Plenty more frozen precip is incoming though. BTW is this gonna be the obs thread? We have a pinned forecast thread.
  14. nrgjeff
    Bless BAMs heart the Euro, NBM and everything else knew also. If they think nobody knows about other models.. shit! Meanwhile I'm up for jinx post of the year.. CAD never wraps around in winter (CHA). Only when I want to chase storms it stabilizes things. Revised rules. CAD wraps around only when I don't want it; kills storm chances, promotes ice. When I want help for snow it fails. KCHA is running a couple degrees (or more) below guidance. Still think we'll thaw Sunday, but I'm gonna need power through Saturday for college hoops on TV!
  15. nrgjeff
    Could be in places on the bubble, re sleet vs FZRA. Love the Bon Jovi reference. Rock on!
  16. nrgjeff
    00Z follows 18Z colder than earlier runs. Damn! Hoped 18Z was just a blip. Perhaps I jinxed Chattanooga several pages back with.. I'm not too worried locally. CAD only wraps around when I want to chase storms! Welp. We'll see about that on Saturday. Joking aside, all this does is increase confidence in a devastating ice storm from the Mid-South to Mid-Tenn. This is a truly upper end event. Models are split on the sleet vs FZRA question in MEM. Most reliable short-term ensemble favors sleet. Same NAM. Couple of the newer hi-res models FZRA. Then for BNA the colder temps simply boost FZRA amounts. MEM is living on the edge between damaging and truly catastrophic. BNA is just living on the edge I guess. Then up in northeast Tennessee, y'all in the microclimates gotta take it from here. Good night and be safe.
  17. nrgjeff
    Broadly, the case for the warmup is a robust southern flow. This is much stronger than a usual winter system. Column is TOTALLY saturated up to 400 mb or higher, offering little chance for evaporative cooling regardless of how strong the lift. Recon actually helped models key in on the kinetic strength and moisture depth. I don't wanna be the downer, but we always knew it could go either way. Went warmer. Also remember in the day 8-14 range CPC highlighted this as a Heavy Rain event. Well, we're almost full circle.
  18. nrgjeff
    MRX ice chart looks reasonable to me. I have not looked at microclimates north of say Cleveland, Tenn. Generally seems to get the downslope foothills and cold stuck a little north side of Great Valley. I like it a lot around Chatty and surrounding mountains. GFS is too far south. I am not at all concerned about its local ice forecast. RAP might as well plant a Quebec flag in North Mississippi. Quebec basically has the North American ice storm of record from 1998. No I don't believe that's in the cards, but MEM 1994 (displaced south) could be.
  19. nrgjeff
    Bigger problem for North Georgia. In spring (when I wanna chase) it curls around and stabilizes everything. In winter the warm nose usually wins. Hey @jaxjagmanwe do have Day 3 Marginal in South Bama and text mentions tornadoes!
  20. nrgjeff
    Yeah the model ice forecasts are not great this set-up. One has to manually look at QPF and dissect which of those periods are below freezing. I get lower ice in Chatty than NWS. I get higher Knox northeast. Lee side foothills downslope? I give up!
  21. nrgjeff
    That scenario makes a lot of sense in Chattanooga. Knox and points north could have more light precip. Sunday night. In this business anything is possible for both locations. We'll know Monday morning.
  22. nrgjeff
    It is harder than the Plains; and, that's a high bar. When someone in the Northeast says they got it hard I laugh in their face. Y'all been looking at it for 3-4 days inside the US! Models got it onshore those same days ahead. I will concede the coastal front is hard - and has crushed many a snow lover hearts.
  23. nrgjeff
    GFS is consistent with another storm signal in a week. One run warm nosed - apparently always a possibility. The rest are all snow. Euro will find it again. Random cold air thoughts. Being from the Plains we ALWAYS locked in shallow cold harder than models. I tried that a few times in East Tenn. Learned real quick I'm not in Kansas anymore. Warm nose wins in the Great Valley. Then east of the Apps right back to cold wins, bigly CAD right up there with Denver. Amazing.
  24. nrgjeff
    Bless BAMS heart, there is no chance of an inch of ice in Chattanooga proper. Signal might get a half inch if they stay below freezing, but that's clickbait in town. Human should have QC'd it. Obviously it's the Mountain, but it seems a bit much even there. Downtown to East Brainerd, I have basically no concern about life. Yeah prolly some power outages Sat. Hopefully not my house. Roads should break up on Sunday.
  25. nrgjeff
    HRRR is doing that also Mid-South to Mid-Tenn. If that MEM forecast sleet manifests itself at FZRA they are looking at 1994. Some of the rest of North Mississippi is Quebec 1998. OK I'm out. Work intensity rivals that leading up to 4/27/11.
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