nrgjeff

18Z Roundup. GFS is a nice moderate snow in a couple pieces of energy. Euro remains a crippling ice storm. No Canadian at 18Z but 12Z was ice. Ensembles just blend out everything. We either have a beautiful snow or a Ukraine winter without power.

Well the 12Z EC drops a Quebec ice storm on Mississippi and Alabama next weekend. We have a week for it to change. Otherwise MS / AL grid is gonna look as bad as Ukraine's. Guess we'll take natural causes over a terrorist Holodomor, but still..

Wow lots of heavy ice forecasts coming out from NWP but thankfully all well out in the extended. We can't have that crap! They are on different days on different models; some north of here, some right on us. If that happens it'll be a huge slap in the face. Other options range from heavy rain to cold and dry. It's beyond Day 7. Of course we hope for all snow.

Sometimes the ECMWF acts like he who shall not be named.

Life moves pretty fast. -Ferris Bueller Rain Snow

I'm punting this weekend locally. Still looks good Plateau and Mountains. End of January modelling just came in significantly colder. Confidence increases on another cold snap. We'll see if we can get a storm, but the cold looks pretty likely.

So far I consider AI models other tools in the tool belt. They are not any better at daily forecasting, but they are as good. Just depends on the system and set-up. AI has been known to catch long-range pattern changes first. But when we get to storm mode, they are just other models. Then when we get inside a few days I prefer high resolution stuff. Remind me to avoid the Southeast except the Mountains thread which is pretty good. We need GaWx back in here so I don't have to wander into the SE abyss for his thoughts.

And just like that the 12Z RRFS lines up with the GFS south. (Blanks Chatty.) I think they will get their snow in contrast to the Euro No. Euro might be a higher resolution but some of the GFS code still captures small perturbations. Euro is king of the extended, but we are getting into the time period when the GFS is useful. More granular discussion, RRFS splits the difference between the NAM right up on the Apps and the GFS closer to the coast. RRFS makes sense for a central GA to Piedmont snow. Should I just goto the Southeast forum? Nah, Tennessee still has the Friday night Saturday am snow showers, lol! Plus the Southeast forum is like a Super Walmart on a Saturday afternoon.

Wow we got model tracks anywhere from buried near the Gulf Coast and marginal temps, to almost up to Chattanooga and plenty cold enough. 06Z RRFS has a couple inches at KCHA - a 60% hatched risk for major disappointment. Truth may be somewhere in between. I'd be happy for those in central GA central SC, and the NC Piedmont. Maybe their groaning would subside for a couple weeks, lol!

I'll take Spann 100X there. Though I feel like that AI version was too beefy for Tenn. Spann has been amazing through the past week. Anyway this late weekend event looks like it'll satisfy some Southeast weenies. We'll see what the initial waves bring for Tenn. Probably the usual Upper Plateau, Mountains and a few spots north of I-40 east of the Plateau. ' Chattanooga can pretty much forget about it! Maybe some flurries but nothing will stick in town.

Well the Euro didn't cooperate. Ukie somewhat. Icon No. Should be good skiing in the mountains both TN and NC. I've lost interest in much else. I'll be back tomorrow though.

Floyd popped into my mind with the satellite resolution. Floyd was supposed to bring Armageddon from Florida to Maine. Biggest hype storm ever up to that point. It did real damage to the Carolinas, but it did not end the entire East Coast.

for the weekend: Canadian indeed pushes more chips onto the table. Setting up for disappointment in southeast Tenn. It's like after a blown save (good GFS a few days ago) you get a couple baserunners, but it's two outs so I'm not hopeful.

Also go back to smooth jazz and rough graphics local on the 8s. Trends today 06/12Z point to mainly Plateau and Mountains Wednesday night. Weekend could feature more flurries are even snow showers Valley floor in Eastern Tennessee. Maybe even the Nashville area? Clearly the beefy GFS runs a couple days ago caved to the Euro type solutions. Still gives a chance of flurries in the air over the weekend. A good short-wave within cyclonic flow aloft could put down a dusting in the Valley. Otherwise more Plateau and Mountains. Mid-Atlantic and Southern Appalachian ski areas look for another good MLK Weekend.

Equivalent of a blown save in baseball. Also Kansas blowing a comfortable lead at West Virginia. Well at least the train wreck of the Chiefs season is over!

Apparently, a few tornadoes happened with that on Friday. Twas an interesting system to start off January.

Severe then snow. Book it! (Well mainly I-40 and north)

Let's get it started! Valid Friday. Could be a bit forced, but a touch more instability would raise the ceiling.

Weeks 3-4 chart isn't horrible. If it's an average of some warm days and some cold.. Texas slider on colder days would drop snow at least north of I-40.

Mele Kalikimaka a warm Hawaiian Christmas!

EPS followed the ECMWF warmer but it could be a one-off. AI version still has the back door front chances northeast Tenn. This is all for closer to the New Year. Basically we're looking for a little -NAO. Questions are mainly around whether the Pacific side will help, or just give us the Chinook finger. Of course Carvers I'm always down for mixing weather and basketball. Just like the Vols are back on track, perhaps the ECMWF will get colder again. The warm GEFS does not concern me. PS that Vols game was about the only major vs major this week - a nice treat!

Clippers are hard to get in southern Tenn. Northeast Tenn can benefit from them. Yeah a clipper can happen in Chinook but it'd be tough to get it down here. GaWx is right about the -NAO which could over-achieve northeast only - prolly more like NE USA. GaWx is a good follow even though mainly Southeast. Close enough his posts can be relevant here. Then I have to whine about how I miss clipper action growing up near KC. Felt like two storm tracks work, clipper and Colorado/SW low. Here it's gotta be near perfect with little margin for error. Guess that's what makes snow in the South special!

Mele Kalikimauka it's gonna be a warm Christmas! Wake me up for the first tornado watch.

Bah Humbug! This fits better in severe than general December, where we have one more clipper / frontogenesis north of I-40. Warm themes could lead to severe. Please don't share commercial, but it's not a huge surprise. Everyone can see the weekly models. Straight North American pattern recognition.. forget all the teleconnections TCs.. Pineapple Express ends mild downstream. Current Pac NW firehose is why our Sunday cold front will be history by Tuesday afternoon. But the TCs are going to the dogs too. North Pac ridge going to the Aleutians not eastern Alaska. -PNA +EPO torch regardless of the WPO. Guess Jax and I are going to end up chasing the OV Midwest.

Snow for Hanukkah. Severe for Christmas. Checks out! Getting off my torch horse.. The following teleconnections reveal something like the chart below Days 16-20 which is Christmas and the following weekend. Maybe delay to New Year. Maybe the other way, shallow cold airmass brings a colder verification in Tennessee. Who knows? Cold air supply in Canada MJO tracking back through 7-8 colder phases WPO ride still rex blocking North Pac, if we can boot any Alaska trough Strato is still active / warm Do not share for any commercial purposes. This was posted yesterday afternoon, so I feel like it's OK to share just here.