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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    That's the East Brainerd black hole. @PowellVolz @dwagner88 same deal IMBY
  2. nrgjeff
    Yeah @Holston_River_Rambler I watched robust thunderstorms break up on their way into my location Wednesday eve. East Tennessee lower elevations are stuck in a dry pattern. Parts of Chattanooga got rain, but the ol' East Brainerd crap-out was in full effect. I expect similar disappointment today in southeast Tenn. Option 1 is morning thunderstorms dissipate early afternoon. Option 2 they go into North Alabama. I see no win for southeast Tenn. Oh crap, this is the long-term thread. Recent years confirm strong and super Nino are mild. We had one strong go cold with some QBO PDO and blocking help. Otherwise it's warm. Peer reviewed research shows a strong statistically significant warm bias.
  3. nrgjeff
    Looks like the Eastern CONUS weather pattern is all blocked up. High press is stacked at all levels. Upper lows anchor either side in an almost spring-like Omega. Annoying on many levels.
  4. nrgjeff
    Might not be a surprise, but from MRX. Should be fine to share public info. Below are some interesting trends for September I wanted to share with you: Chattanooga · Only 0.09" for the month · Unless 0.32" is reached (unlikely), this will be the 3rd driest September on record and the driest since 1919 Knoxville · Only 0.35" for the month · Currently at the 5th driest September on record, but rainfall is more likely in the next couple of days Tri-Cities · 0.79" for the month · Currently at the 5th driest September on record, but rainfall is more likely in the next couple of days
  5. nrgjeff
    The QBO is indeed falling. I like a -QBO trend even better than static -QBO. Trouble is two of the last three failed to descend properly, leaving us in the mild pattern. In the medium term for October we do have some high press from Greenland to the Arctic north of Scandanavia. Need that to build over Siberia to Alaska. Unfortunately that's all the good news I have. Long-term the risk of Super Nino is mild across the board. At this time with the falling QBO I tend to favor equal risks. Mainly the back half of winter could get cold. If the QBO fails then I'm mild Dec-Jan-Feb. Wake me up for severe!
  6. nrgjeff
    Just now seeing this. The Tennessee Valley region indeed includes North Alabama and North Mississippi, per the Tenn. River. Then if you go TVA territory, much of east-central Mississippi joins. What the heck? We adopt all of Alabama and Mississippi! I discuss it all when time permits. Usually, I'm hankering for a chase. Plus it's to my west, which is of personal interest even when not chasing. Unfortunately, sometimes work duties prohibit time on the board. I might be biased, but I believe the American Weather Tennessee Valley is the best Dixie Alley discussion on the Internet. One could debate the Plains Internet spots, but for me it's no contest in the South.
  7. nrgjeff
    Well the CFS and ECMWF weeklies are just about total opposites around here. Lovely! Must be shoulder season. Most of the Pacific tropical cyclone activity is joining the jet stream, vs pumping up a China (ABNA) ridge. I have to favor the cooler CFS. In contrast to the GFS/Euro debate, we've seen the CFS win out about as often as not.
  8. nrgjeff
    Hoping for another great foliage year. RE the East ridge. Do you know what I really want to come of that? Trough Midwest, severe weather of course!
  9. nrgjeff
    Euro is relying too much on classic El Nino. I'm more with the climate trend and CFS. Blowtorch. No hope.
  10. nrgjeff
    Interesting, because lower elevations have been hotter than forecast. It's frustrated the hell out of me tbh!
  11. nrgjeff
    KC Chiefs won't have home field if they even make the playoffs. Time to focus on college. Go Vols!
  12. nrgjeff
    Mood after looking at weather data Carvers is probably right unfortunately. Early 'canes will just act like warm fronts. Maybe we can get a break in mid-Sept.
  13. nrgjeff
    Unfortunately the model consensus is on board.
  14. nrgjeff
    Checked on the weekly forecasts. ECMWF CFS GEFS
  15. nrgjeff
    Good points about ENSO enhancing corresponding phases of the MJO. That's kind of how the pieces come together. Until the secondary pattern crashes the party. Like this 600 dm hell ridge! I find the least value in forecasting weeks 4-6. We've done statistical studies that show zero commercial value over climo, sometimes even negative value. I don't even look past week 3 on the weekly products. The 2nd month out to seasonal can add a little commercial value. Month 2 if one can get the MJO or other meaningful teleconnection it can help. ENSO is better at less granular multi-month time frames. Even such very general forecasts can add commercial value if the sign is right. Unfortunately that's maybe 1/3 to 1/2 of seasons. The other half we live with it. Nobody should make detailed plans based on a seasonal forecast anyway. Still that's actually greater commercial value than weeks 4-6 forecasting at zero.
  16. nrgjeff
    Hillary and Harold both probably worked to amp up this ridge. TOP (Kan) and other balloons recorded record high 500 mb heights a few cycles ago. Then a damn stationary front caused pooling dewpoints. Only in 2023 do we get 70 dews below a 600 dm ridge. And yes I am string to wonder @Carvers Gap about another September with AN dragging out worse than pre-season football. Can we just get to Real Fall?
  17. nrgjeff
    Next week could be the hottest week of the summer in East Tenn. I believe the Mid-South already logged their hottest week. Ensembles are settling in on a clean ridge, not many if any t-storms. Ridge parks and simmers.
  18. nrgjeff
    The 1960s and 1970s featured a -PDO and -AMO. Water off the coast of both oceans were cooler than normal. It's a recipe for cold everywhere with jet stream stuck south. The PDO and AMO are offset by about a decade. +PDO -AMO in the 80s was great for full latitude East troughs. -PDO +AMO in parts of the 1950s is a mixed record, sometimes stormy sometimes drought. Both + is warm everywhere, none of the advantages of one, just the disadvantages of the other. Question is, can we ever get the oceans to sink heat again? Aaannnd, off to the Climate subforum. Maybe I'm just pissed off about the forecast heat next week. I'm still optimistic about some dumb luck with El Nino this winter.
  19. nrgjeff
    Storms got real up that way. I think down here (southeast Tenn) the mid-levels never cooled off enough. Got some good lightning and stuff. But it came from skinny towers. Guess I can't say turkey towers with lightning and rain, but they had that scrawny look. Note I might have missed more robust Cu since it was dark, and I relied on lightning only.
  20. nrgjeff
    Fortunately, both low level shear and deep layer shear were not enough to sustain a tornado. CC drop could have been a brief touchdown though. We're looking forward to the other kind of touchdowns - from the Vols! Now.. here in Chattanooga 10am, where the hell are my 60s dewpoints? This 70s stuff is FUBAR.
  21. nrgjeff
    Humidity scale is expanded. Old: Humid, Ridiculous, Ludicrous. FUBAR is an additional category. 91/77 in KCHA. Welcome to the Persian Gulf, at least the Td part.
  22. nrgjeff
    Carvers covers the different flavors of El Nino well, just above. John covers other hemispheric pattern drivers top of page. I prefer QBO trend to a steady value, trending down and ideally into negative. El Nino looks like it wants to stay basin wide. While I have concern about strength.. If the summer pattern can hold into fall and winter, it's of course favorable for temps Middle and East parts of our Region. Mid-South should get its turn too. We'll know more about this through Sept. and into early Oct. Note the polar source remains very warm. Canada and Alaska have MA temps this summer. In El Nino the Southeast relies on the southern stream anyway. If the current Atmo response continues into autumn, I'd be cautiously optimistic. If by wavelength or other debacle we torch, I'll just chalk it up to living in the South.
  23. nrgjeff
    Mid-South portion of our Region had a summer. The rest of us enjoyed a mild summer. Indeed we may all get it next week. Looks like a pretty stout ridge building. Twitter is getting a little carried away though. Did they forget Normal temps are dropping now? Leaves look good right now. Even that heat won't be a problem before September. We need to avoid more of that crap though. I generally agree spring is more important than late summer. Exception is if that ridge parks for 3 weeks. Doubtful though. Ridges tend to be short-lived this summer before retreating to the Deep South, Texas and Southwest. Maybe we can get a hurricane under that ridge for something to track. Though I'm not rooting for that over such warm SSTs, late Aug. is when the season usually ramps up quickly.
  24. nrgjeff
    Sexy outflow boundary sits to my west, even with a kink. Too bad it's capped and directional shear is low. Only speed shear is there. For that 2% Upper Plateau.. gonna need that outflow boundary to lift north. Possible with a break in the action, but I'm an Under bet.
  25. nrgjeff
    Feels like May lasted a day. Dewpoints today are atrocious! Also need to motivate myself to get out in the middle of the night for the Perseids which also requires a little drive out of the city. It'd be easier if the US was still in the World Cup, overnight games. Apathy may prevail because I'm tired.
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