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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    MRX probability chart is reasonable for an event 60 hours out with borderline temps. Keep in mind probability considers all parameters, climo and time to event. Probability 3 days out is usually bearish compared to deterministic numerical models. MRX rightfully blanks Chattanooga, and does include the Cumberland Plateau. Maybe I'm biased in favor because it has things in common with my longer post bottom of page 20 this topic. PS. I'll post in the event topic on Friday. If I post too early, I'll surely jinx it.
  2. nrgjeff
    Jog northwest indeed is on recent model runs (NWP) 12Z Thursday. NWP could still jog a little more northwest into Friday, but from there it should stabilize. For some more NW is good. For others here, it's already approaching the sweet spot. Inverted trough helps low level convergence. Mountains also play a role, kind of like an inverted lee trough. All help surface convergence. Cold core could fix most problems if the temp is 40 at the beginning. Exception is Chattanooga because a northeast wind is downslope, and keeps it warmer. Knoxville NE wind is basically neutral. Yeah gentle downslope down the Great Valley, but not like off the Mountains for Chatty. I'm not too worried about time of day yet. If snow starts sticking overnight, it'll be fine in the morning. There's some causation there, but mostly correlation; if snow is sticking, it's cold enough. Cold, not just existing snow, would be the common helper. I think that concludes my eight cents worth, two cents on four above thoughts. I'm pretty optimistic for much of East Tennessee outside of Chattanooga (though we could) and even the Plateau. My gut says this will turn out from Knoxville east and north. Given the northwest NWP trends, the Cumberland Plateau should get snow too. GFS Georgia lala land aside, 12Z Thursday NWP (06Z Euro) keeps the TROWAL feature* going up that way. Finally we all talk about a little expansion on the north side of the snow shield. * See WAA from the northeast into the cold core at 850/700 mb on most NWP.
  3. nrgjeff
    12Z ECMWF wants to bowling ball East Tennessee with snow, including Chattanooga, Saturday night. Today as I write (Wednesday) it is the 3-year anniversary of the February 2020 bowling snowball. I will jump into the real / pinned forecast thread on Thursday if the above holds. Chiefs also won the Superbowl in 2020. I'll take an order of both snow and KC Superbowl champions. I'm not sure what's longer odds. KC vs the Philly defense, or snow in Chattanooga. Y'all know the answer!
  4. nrgjeff
    Nice spy chase @Jed33 lol! Did you give them the Finger? I never saw it but read it passed over Tenn. In more concerning news, Kansas lost our 4th conference game at Iowa St. We must right the ship vs Texas in Lawrence tonight! SEC is in action Tuesday and Wednesday. Tennessee and Alabama play next week, so the SEC race is still pretty open.
  5. nrgjeff
    Severe wx enthusiasts need the next SSW to fail as miserably as the last. A SSW follow through would crush the early season. Not in time for winter snow, just in time to make spring blow (chunks not severe).
  6. nrgjeff
    My two cents. Yes the cold will undercut. Mid South and western third of our Region could surprise one day next week. Upper Plateau could / should do so as well. I don't about the I-81 corridor though. My other penny is that Chattanooga will stay well above freezing when it counts, so wake me up the next chance of severe.
  7. nrgjeff
    I've not been on the forum as much as I'd like due to mainly kids activities. Performing arts is steady through the year. Nobody told me basketball is 3X as busy as track or cross country, lol! @Holston_River_Rambler good to know things are better with family. I guess health or accident, but I don't find the OP. Regardless, the power of prayer does not require details. On lighter topics, SEC vs Big 12 challenge is this weekend! I have to pick Auburn and Alabama on the road. Auburn will bounce back from Wed. WV is a tough venue, but their press is weak this year. Tennessee will win at home, but Texas is tough. TX Tech vs LSU is and should be relegated to ESPNU, lol. Now for my Big 12 picks. TCU and Iowa State are capable of road wins, but it depends on which Miss State and Mizzou show up. K-State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor should win at home. Kansas is better than Kentucky this year, but a road game is probably not where Kansas gets back on track. Coach Cal often says Kentucky plays better on the road. Well, they'll bring that intensity to home court between blue bloods. I'll go Kentucky W and be pleasantly surprised if Kansas snaps a 3-game losing streak at Rupp Arena. None of the above are recommendations, lol. At any rate, I show a 5-5 tie in the SEC Big 12 Challenge 2023.
  8. nrgjeff
    I don't know Larry Cosgrove personally, but he has a nice presence on social media - a rare and refreshing occurrence in our era of cocky novices on social media. At any rate I have traded in my MLK Day cold flip for 2-3 more weeks of warm. Oh Alaska trough! Always a chance again in Feb. However years with extreme cold dumps sometimes can't fully reload. Including both the 500 mb and the surface projection.
  9. nrgjeff
    Still praying for Damar Hamlin and the Bills. Chiefs fan here wanted to see Cincy win (KC home field concerns) but all of a sudden that does not matter. We just need son, brother, cousin, player, friend Damar to get well. Description borrowed from Jason Gay, WSJ sportswriter. After reading Jason's column from today I had to read his more typical fun one from yesterday. Talks about Rodgers and Brady back from the abyss. He also mentions TCU in college - yeah Big 12! I think one thing we Big 12 and SEC people can agree on, watching the Big Ten go down in flames, lol! Both Kansas schools lost Bowls to their SEC opponents, but at least my KU kept it close with Ark. How about them Vols! I told y'all Tennessee would win the Orange Bowl. Forecast verification!
  10. nrgjeff
    The surface temps bias of course depends on the situation. Surging Arctic fronts, a forecaster should go colder. Warm fronts dislodging cold air the chilly NAM can sometimes win. In this case, it's already mild. WF should be stronger than forecast - stronger than winter model climo. Therefore I agree warmer than guidance at least from the Gulf WF south. I'm still not sold on the synoptic WF farther north since it's already raining. My bottom line: Mississippi late today and tonight. Central and South Alabama Tuesday. Bama requires the boundary intersection survive, and proper upper jetlet alignment. LLJ is forecast to remain in place Tuesday with warm enough surface temps/dews central/south Bama.
  11. nrgjeff
    Tennessee is going to win our Bowl game. Oh Clemson it's Clemson. Yeah but the SEC is tougher than the ACC. Tennessee will win! (Not betting advice) Just have fun getting the W. Also Happy New Year!
  12. nrgjeff
    Yeah @Matthew70 that was historic. It's almost like we get fewer tornadoes, but the energy is rolled up into several big ones. A look at overall history shows more general tornadoes in the Plains, but the 4s and 5s are concentrated in the South. Interesting @jaxjagman that 1989 was the last year so quiet in Tenn. Kansas was dead the late 80s too. Kansas is dead now too like Tenn. In both cases last year the states had notable tornadoes (Andover 2.0) but not much activity overall. Alas the Monday outbreak appears on track but mainly juuust to our west in Arkansas. Best chance of tornadoes is probably the western half of the 15% closer to initiation and the main pre-frontal trough. Could be mostly straight wind into the Mid-South but don't let down your guard yet. Anything going well out ahead on the WF could rotate. Mid-South looks after dark. Daytime action looks Ozarks. With Bowl Games galore on Monday the choice is clear. No chase!
  13. nrgjeff
    Day 4-8 looks valid for Monday severe Mid-South. 12Z Wed. is slowing it down, into the flatter Delta region. Nice! Friday system tugs on Gulf Moisture; then, front does not clear the Coast over the weekend. Perfect for moisture return on Sunday. I always like a second system to ensure deeper moisture return. It’s nice in spring. It’s vital in winter. It’s this set-up. Then the table is set Monday. Winds turn with height forming a textbook curved hodo. Prefrontal trough is forecast intercepting WF or differential heating boundary. Those are fine details for so far out, but also easy pattern recognition. Believe SPC is right to outlook Day 6 in the cold season. Second wave (vs one-and-done) adds confidence to the thermo profile. In winter the wind profile is a given. That said, those who get anxious should not be this far out. Whole thing could fall apart. At the same time, chasers should check their equipment.
  14. nrgjeff
    Belated merry Christmas! We were out of town after being super busy. Chattanooga did better with snow Monday evening than with the Arctic front, according to neighbors. We enjoyed the Monday snow showers welcome home. Today we have Kansas vs some pigs who can’t spell Kansas in the Liberty Bowl. Tennessee basketball is going to Ole Miss looking to prove something on the road after Arizona. I’ll take the Vols all day even Away. Looking ahead I like Tennessee football in the Orange Bowl. Clemson is still good, but Tennessee has just. So. Much. Offense. That’s a Vols win!
  15. nrgjeff
    Above are the odds of SEEING anything in the South. Odds of it happening may be higher, but hills trees, short daylight hours, peaking after dark, etc.. Could be the same story Tuesday in the Mid South and just southwest of our Region.
  16. nrgjeff
    Well it is a Monday.
  17. nrgjeff
    USA loss to the Netherlands. Guess that's what thunder means.
  18. nrgjeff
    Relaod. Rutgers (not shown) has AN snow on the southern periphery of Asia snowcover. We patiently (or not so patiently) await the North America response. Even if SER (or more likely south-central ridge) early, the cold should eventually win out.
  19. nrgjeff
    I figure that SER, really more of a south-central US ridge, will try to hold on through early next week. Eventually the dam breaks in December*. Just too much blocking. *That's a generalization. Not a forecast. I have a long infamous history of jinxing weather patterns; so, just idle chatter.
  20. nrgjeff
    I don't normally just drop Twitter threads, but this one is legit. Original thread is accessible from my retweet.
  21. nrgjeff
    Mid-South Tuesday will depend on daytime heating. Overcast would delay thunderstorms until overnight, and Tennessee would probably escape severe. Mississippi would still face some risk Tuesday night. Greater sunshine on Tuesday would promote high temps over 65 maybe 70, and daytime severe thunderstorms. Scenario would also accompany a farther north and east warm sector for Tennessee and Alabama. Finally, the wind profiles are quite robust both speed and direction. Key to this almost winter set-up is Sunday. The weekend system won't send a front to the Gulf Coast. Sets the table for a quick and perhaps deep moisture recovery by Tuesday afternoon.
  22. nrgjeff
    Turnovers were atrocious for both teams. Kansas needs to solve its size problem. After Duke I said it's how you work it. After Tennessee I see Kansas has a problem. Tennessee sharpened up second half. After my mental wounds heal I can get back to cheering for the Vols when they are not playing Kansas. Tennessee has a shot at winning the SEC, though it's not easy. SEC West has good teams too. Football today has offered closer more exciting games than pre-game spreads, which is nice. Later I probably don't want to watch the Sunflower State Showdown. Tennessee at Vanderbilt sounds better.
  23. nrgjeff
    Happy Thanksgiving! It has been a nice day chillin' with family in Chattanooga and watching more basketball than football. Multiple college games went into OT. Yes Kansas and Tennessee have a date Friday for the Battle for Atlantis Championship. I think we've met in that tournament before. Plus we scheduled home-and-home a couple recent years. So, Kansas and Tennessee is a wonderful holiday tradition! I'm going to try and just enjoy the game. I've come to really like Tennessee sports, but there's no place like home. My prediction, Final score within 2 either way. Cheers!
  24. nrgjeff
    GFS caught onto the two systems well before the ECMWF. Result is the Thanksgiving wave followed by that closed low later in the weekend. EC had everything coming out Thanksgiving before catching on. LOL!
  25. nrgjeff
    Yes in Dec. 1989 we kept 2-3 inches of snow for 2-3 weeks. It stayed pretty white, vs getting dirty, because it was so cold with little daytime melting. I can't imagine that in our current regime.
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