nrgjeff

Models have been improving the last 12 hours since my last post. Looking at Ops AI and ensembles. 06/12Z GFS have a true TROWAL behind the main WAA later this week - a recipe for several inches of snow. Other models have light overrunning. Few blank us now. Few details. Work is really busy. I'm also following current events - but for that you'll have to visit Randy's hood to see my thoughts.

Model trends encouraged me today. Per my last post, I'm much more interested in midweek than Sunday. Southeast Tennessee needs a new system, not one chasing the Saturday rain. Ensemble members and some ops and AI runs are delivering a midweek system. Others keep it buried in the Deep South. Again I'd much rather be concerned about moisture getting north, rather than warm noses and cutters. That's all for today. Long day at the office, but I was watching trends. I'll sleep happy tonight.

12Z Canadian shows ice! What is that Trudeau's retaliation? GFS and Euro I see Sunday as the first chance of winter precip. Perhaps late Saturday night northwest so that's still Day 7 as of this writing. I like the Peachtree discussion. At the same time the ensemble snow means are increasing per Carvers above. Personally I'm hoping for something the middle of next week to show up in the flow. Sunday is way too soon after the rain system for KCHA. We'll be fighting subsidence behind the first system; plus, anafrontal is DOA for Chatty snow.

Strange. Hall is never bullish about anything. Chattanooga probably has reached our half-way point even if the good models verify. Other parts of the forum may be just gettin' started. We'll see.

Even that 12Z GFS verbatim, buried in the Deep South, more snow than progged would get up and over us. Northern stream, maybe instead of warm nosing us, could do something productive (for once) in that setup.

November snow in Florida! per a few posts up. Guess anything can happen in this business. Quick look at the medium range models and most bury any waves. I'd much rather see that than cutters. Perhaps one will develop in our sweet spot. A couple AI versions have just that. Right after the Saturday rain, but separated enough to develop, second wave Sun/Mon.

Maybe we can get some severe weather going on Saturday. OK I'll be good! Oh the EC for Tuesday Jan. 21 is lovely. Full thickness is 522 low lower. You wouldn't think we'd get a warm nose, lol! Partial thickness lines are buried in the Deep South - where they belong. 700 mb is a proper -10 to -15. That's Day 10 counting Sunday as Day 1. Long way to go. Broad theme is waves will continue on a buried southern jet vs all NW flow.

WPC/CPC risks at the same time periods Jan 18-24. What could go wrong? Please no ice overrunning. Can we order up more snow? With the jet stream buried and roaring, things may show up inside 5 days at any time.

Either that or they check at 11:59 pm in which case everything got compacted. Yeah I see the snow and snow on ground, but I got 5.5 inches in three very different spots in our 'hood. This was at peak fluff and quarters ripping. It immediately settled with the dreaded sleet and then light freezing rain. That said, we hit snow stretch goal before the mixer mayhem, so I'm happy with the event in KCHA

Euro is generally better with the MJO but it struggles in a couple phases. Always a trade off with NWP. Regardless they both stay cold CFS/EC weeklies. Friday was terrific in Chattanooga*, but I still want more snow! *yes the sleet was disappointing and ate up QPF, but we hit our snow stretch target first!

We needed much thicker multi-layered clouds like this morning @midwoodian behind the dry slot to get it to change back to snow. Most of the afternoon junk fell from a layer of lower clouds, below the snow production zone. The other storm thread (whopper) has a good discussion of this matter pages 13-14. DGZ dendrite growth zone, and an MRX discussion. Thankfully we got a good snow before the ice to dry slot. If you're getting snow this evening on Signal it's probably the ol' Signal microclimate. It's 33 and drizzle in town. I'm signing off for the night. Cheers to all!

Dry slot over I-75 southeast Tenn. CHA-TYS at this moment. Late afternoon break or end of storm? Looks like it wants to fill in again west, and/or sink south from the Nashville shear band. Trouble is a lack of middle level clouds (upstream). We need a deeper cloud deck to produce snow. Clouds won't have to be as deep as before, but we need more than what's incoming. Might even be a break north of I-40 east of the Plateau but that area has a better chance of refilling. It's still snowing in Nashville.

Yes I got 5-6 inches measured in three places while it was still rippin quarters and some half dollars. When it stopped it settled about an inch. Then the sleet really beat it down. Glad we got out at peak snow rates, just down the street.

Nah we're golden! Big slug of moisture, isentropic lift and CSI incoming.

Moderate snow in Chattanooga with 2 inches on the ground. Need the precip type to hold the line.

Getting on 2 inches Chatty. Excellent news out of Hytop. Though the green line is trying to advance, snow is holding the line east of I-65 in southern Middle Tenn. When the mix tries to advance snow pokes southwest.

I'm pretty sure the earlier week snow was produced at lower levels, and John know this already. But yeah these traditional snows are like waiting for the big game to start. Northwest Alabama, no. Chatty flakes are still not the phat quarters I'd imagined. Correlation coefficient is still PANIC ROOM like nursing a 3 point lead with 8 minutes left in the game.

Yes Chatty is getting light but solid snow. Moderate SN is incoming. Huntsville 30 and all snow is very encouraging up our way. Thank you!

KCHA Is down to 27. I'm honestly shocked. Thought we'd hang up around 30. CC line in North Alabama is behaving well, would keep us all snow. However upstream in North Mississippi the line is advancing. Chattanooga is the border war. Guess it's been that way for about 160 years, and probably way back into prehistory tbh. If these temps lock in forget about regular rain. Our choices are ice or all snow. Obviously we want snow, preferably some thundersnow with that CSI banding.

Goot question @matt9697 This thread is supposed to be Observations only. Photos, text descriptions, and even complaining about mixed precip. Slider original thread is the nowcast thread, formerly forecast thread. IT issues have to go in Banter or somewhere else. Please y'all. And now I'm going to blur those rules with a radar shot, lol! While North Alabama was turning to snow, North Mississippi rain line is moving north. Southern Tennessee, we're going to be biting our finger nails the entire time. If I have an actual forecast (rather than freaking out) I'll put it in the Slider nowcast thread.

Chattanooga is truly on the edge of glory or the edge of a cliff. Change to rain, or thundersnow? If I play Lady Gaga's Edge of Glory maybe it'll stay all snow and we'll get thumped. The upper jet will produce good fronto-genetic forcing along with isentropic lift into the region. Good dendritic snow growth is noted as well along with several hours of CSI for snow banding especially across southeast Tennessee, northern Plateau, western half of the Tennessee valley and southwest Virginia. Rain line on CC was moving north, and still is. At the same time it's dropping south where heavier snow is muscling in. Edge of Glory, baby!

Light snow in eastern Chattanooga. Getting to the high end of light, but not yet moderate. Thick dusting to quarter inch already. Light snow started around 7am ET. Correlation Coefficient still shows a county or two buffer between Tennessee and rain/mixed. However it is creeping north. Need the defensive line to hold! I believe Hytop and BMX are scanning different elevations at the mix line (green). BMX matches surface obs better which is good 'cause its green line is farther south.

I'd feel better if DFW had not changed to 33 and rain. Just happened to be following them since early week. This 546 line may bite us in the ass down in southeast Tennessee. It's just too high. Yeah GFS has WAA winning a little too much. Nashville can relax now in my opinion. Lock it in 4 inches. Probably 6 and locally 8 in. Drier snow will help totals. Isentropic lift blasts northern Middle Tennessee without warming up too much aloft. Gonna give Tellico the medal for best sports metaphor. Esp. going into the CFB semis tonight. You know what? I think the analytics say go for it. Perfect!

That's almost the entire TVA Service Territory. Overall this is a true Southern winter storm. Re the MRX low-end and high-end charts. That's anything from a depressing warm surface to all-snow big-time isentropic lift for hours. We're gonna find out soon! NAM red alert below. Can I give the NAM the Finger?

WPC winter page updated in the proper direction. Chatty looks really reasonable. JC is similar but 2 in. low-end. Kingsport is similar with a 6 in. high-end. So yeah, keep giving us the Finger! Then they have KnoxVegas 2-5-8 must be nice. Range is from questionable temps to isentropic bomb. They have NashVegas 3-6-7 which seems aggressive. Tighter range more confidence though. Experimental NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal to explore on your own from the WPC winter page.