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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Oh my! Anytime it starts with "not to be that guy," "not to be offensive," or "I'm sorry but" then they are that guy, they are offensive, and they're not sorry. That's political roundtable toxic! Southwest Virgnia is 110% this Region. It certainly is by weather patterns. It definitely is by culture - and that's a high compliment. It's an extension of the Great Valley (and sometimes the snow pain), the Blue Ridge, and the Cumberland Gap is still up from the Cumberland Plateau. Geography is king. As for the topic at hand, friends west of Knoxville also had some of that snow band this morning.
  2. nrgjeff
    Looks like wind converges in the lee of the peak. Bernoulli effect both sides. Convergence zone overcomes any downslope. Second example also looks like convergence after wind accelerates over two parallel parts of the River, then converges. Unless it's plain ol' river / reservoir effect. Hopefully Friday we can do better the micro-events, haha!
  3. nrgjeff
    I don't know if snow weenies ever relax, lol! It can be moderate snow with phat quarters but the dry slot could end the party faster than a police raid. This thing looks Miller B more than Miller A. That came up on the last page. Of course our best deal is a true slider which is still possible. Trouble with B is we can get hosed in the handoff. More specifically the 500 mb low hanging so north trashes the partial thickness chart. With low levels 850/surface clearly cold enough, we'll get snow. Trouble is the 700 mb level* and DGZ will be suboptimal during what's usually the best WAA phase (isentropic lift). Comma head should be responsible for most of that snow forecast by WPC and local NWS WFOs. *700 mb is well below freezing, no concern there. Just not the ideal cold. We'll see. Second half of storm could be all systems go. What we need is a good ol' fashioned TROWAL and corresponding shovel graphic or gif, lol.
  4. nrgjeff
    Let's talk severe instead. Come on GFS, I was only joking!
  5. nrgjeff
    NBM and ECMWF are all in line with the WPC. Inject me with more 12Z EC, fewer hand-off complications. If we can reel it in another 36-48 hours of modeling, WPC has pretty good probs this far out! Update: Nashville briefing has 56-60% one inch or greater Friday. Chart is not public yet.
  6. nrgjeff
    After that said system, models try to break the cold. Warm front would make sense after a last over-runing event. Or, you know, there's a strato warming event forecast at the same time. Release or Reload?
  7. nrgjeff
    Pain is part of following snow in the South. Same system dropped 6 inches 10 miles to my northwest, Soddy Daisy north of Chattanooga. Eastern part of Chatty proper got nothing, nada, zilch. I get sharp cut-offs, but that was a new level of cruelty. Think positive thoughts. I believe cold air will be in place. Handoff issues are a risk; and related, the lower precip rates could allow the surface warm nose. GFS can't decide whether to screw Middle Tennessee or the Great Valley. We've seen both either side of the Plateau. Euro has decreasing precip rates but holds the temps in line. Could still be a low spot at the handoff, but the Euro doesn't really blank that spot (wherever it ends up). Or, perhaps we get a classic snow for everyone slider!
  8. nrgjeff
    There is a risk of a handoff debacle, you know when the Olympic relay runners drop the baton. However I'm not going to fret over that on the ECMWF yet 5 days out. I'll still take the Euro risk over the GFS surface warm surface nose rubbish. The latter is particularly annoying. Just get the cold air locked in for once! Getting back to the current system, yeah @Holston_River_Rambler it over achieved in a few areas. KCMO had thunder snow. That's always a big score.
  9. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga temp is dropping during the day! That's rare as air tries to work over the Plateau. Is Hell freezing over? Perhaps it's just the beginning of a good winter weather pattern. I have almost forgotten what that is. Models have a buffet line the next 10-15 days if we can avoid major disappointment. My thoughts on late week are in that thread.
  10. nrgjeff
    I just got back from a week-long vacation. I see y'all saved the best for later this week. Thank you! GFS has surface warm nose problems, which is related to the DGZ* problems (few posts above). But the GFS still has greater snowfall than the Euro. What a silly model! ECWMF has a more consistent snow profile (thickness temps) no sounding available my preferred site. EC is lighter total precip, but I prefer the EC over that GFS warm nose crap. *lighter precip. warmer sfc temps
  11. nrgjeff
    Getting caught up. Y'all write a lot overnight, lol! Re the Tomer Burg tweet(s) yeah blocking sometimes goes longer than progged. I feel like that held truer a decade ago. Seems that climate change also means less stable blocking patterns. However blocking can still be quite intense when it's on. Overnight both models dried out a little on the 6-10 day winter precip. (06Z GFS exception NY) Still got fronts, but not much action. How about severe wx January 5-6? Then they introduce another chance of snow in the 11-15 day. Just keeps pushing out. Closing positive. We all know if we are going to get thumped it'll show up like 3 days out. Ripple in the stream escalates. Let's hope!
  12. nrgjeff
    Yeah that's true. Here in Chattanoga we know if it's coming from Alabama it's gonna hit the fan. If it's coming over the Plateau it's not making it in here. I apply the rule to both severe and snow. The other thing about thunder... Snow the next week? Just not IMBY, lol!
  13. nrgjeff
    All I want for Christmas is you! Whoever has not posted in a while, and anybody out in West Tennesse and Memphis.
  14. nrgjeff
    Quick look at 00Z ensembles. We can see from members and operationals that we have chances of good things, and chances of typical disappointment. Ensembles generally reflect the two less than ideal (but better than average) scenarios. Euro goes cold fast, but behind a quickly moving New Year's system. GFS has a more southern track, and a day later which makes sense south, but cold air is not in place. Either of those scenarios sound more realistic than a big ol' snowstorm, but anything is possible. It's still Day 7-8. Perhaps by the weekend we can talk about more details. Hopefully we avoid a debacle and instead escalate.
  15. nrgjeff
    GFS tried to dump the cold West around Thanksgiving and it ended up barreling east. I'm normally quick to jump on the West first deal, with stubborn SER, but not this time. GFS has a history as noted above. Finally the AI versions strongly favor the Euro. Even the AI version of the GFS caves to the Euro. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Enjoy the NBA Christmas lineup.
  16. nrgjeff
    They both still see that system but of course it's Day 12. Either way, evidence is building for a cold pattern starting a few days after the New Year.
  17. nrgjeff
    Looks warm between Christmas and New Years. Warm Hanukkah. One way or another I have to use this.
  18. nrgjeff
    It's a good sell signal. When they get too bullish, sell natural gas. Not trading advice! I don't trade gas. At least seasonable cold if not colder is still on tap for the first work week of January. Right during the warm holidays will be when to buy gas. Again not advice.
  19. nrgjeff
    Hamilton Co. special weather statement is achieved. Guess it's not bad for December. It's not severe but it's not coal in my stocking either.
  20. nrgjeff
    Rare good news from me.. AI versions have another sharp cold front around Dec. 20. Weeklies hint at it, but the AI version is full tilt cold into the East. The AI versions have been first to sniff out cold before. They typically don't just false alarm like the GFS. We'll see. If they keep stacking up wins I may have to convert to the school of machine learning. I'm just talking temps. If one wants snow in southern Tennessee... The only way to win is not to play. -Wargames
  21. nrgjeff
    European Monthlies are severe all winter.
  22. nrgjeff
    Wow that's the same system I thought I'd jinxed, when it cut at the Mid-South. In the last two days we've gone from severe, to blah rain, to possible winter precip. Not bad!
  23. nrgjeff
    Mele Kalikimaka - Merry Christmas in Hawaiin. I'm buying into the warm pattern flip middle of December. Asian weather pattern situation is out of phase for Siberian delivery to North America. East China might get one more shot of cold. However the forecast troughing in the GOA is pretty bearish for North America.
  24. nrgjeff
    Hopefully we can catch up on rainfall via severe weather. Sorry y'all that's all I have today. Required a flood light to see Chatty snow flurries last night.
  25. nrgjeff
    Doughnuts in the parking lot! I really miss that. I have not seen a good snow since before the Pandemic.
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