nrgjeff

Worked out well for naked eye viewing through the high clouds. Orange effect was quite muted; so, did not attempt photography. Partial phases were pretty classic even with high clouds. Glad I woke up for the last one (4am) since this was less than ideal. Last two were visible from windows, easy haha! Three ago (cold January) is most memorable because it was the first time weather worked out in literally decades for me. However directly overhead it required going outside in ski clothes. At any rate, the total solar remains the granddaddy of them all. Little less than two years I'll visit Texas or Ohio or somewhere.

High clouds are encroaching East Tennessee / east Regional Forum area this evening. Lunar eclipse looks clouded out Middle and West. Hoping thin high clouds won't make much of a difference in East Tenn. In contrast to solar, a lunar eclipse does not require perfect weather. Just not overcast. Can't justify a thread this late, so going with increasing high clouds observation. Hopefully a good show later.

Late spring La Nina things... KCHA airport reported wind gusts to the 50s but I forgot the exact reading. Twas a good storm. Chattanooga had established an inverted V sounding, as dews mixed out, which promoted the strong straight line winds.

Good point Dusty. Actually the morning (or just earlier) rain likely laid down an outflow boundary which enhanced local storm relative shear SRH. Absolute instability is not always as important as the rate of destabilization - which is fast going from rain back to sun. Speaking of all that, East Tennessee had morning rain today (Friday May 6). Surface low in IL about to track into IN. Cold front in Missouri is not drawn. Quasi dry line DL in yellow, hailers probably on it under colder mid-levels. Warm front WF in red should host some hailers with some wind. Prefrontal trough dotted green is most interesting. Should have a blend of instability and some wind shear. Low level shear is a little better on the WF, but instability is just-in-time. DL is a little veered off both sides for tor. Prefrontal trough PFT might have that low top arc. We'll see. PFT could also accelerate (actually mix east faster with background wind) and/or merge with WF. Faster would put the area of interest east of Chattanooga later. Knoxville depends on instability and storm interaction. Just in 16:30 SPC shows that arc shape with the ENH part. Flexible forecast for either WF or trough East Tenn. Arc into Georgia.

Wednesday afternoon the SPC updated Day 2 (for Thursday) pushing Slight into Nashville and adding 5% tornado from West Kentucky through Clarksville TN into the Nashville metro. That is along the Wednesday cool front, retreating as warm front and/or outflow boundary Thursday. See if any morning rain, which would actually enhance local SRH if rain departs by Noon. I'm not really expecting anything big. Just need to give our region some attention. I can't get to the Plains yet, ha. Most likely Thursday Tenn / KY is just clusters and straight wind.

Happy Easter forecast. SPC has a slight risk Deep South. Lean South is prudent since outflow boundaries tend to reinforce south with repeating waves of convection, as has happened and is forecast Friday night through Sunday. ARWs (NSSL) and HRRR are in line south. NAM version opens the door a little farther north into central Mississippi on Sunday, with a little less morning rain and/or it departing sooner. FV3 also has less morning rain and some storms North Mississippi later, but that should be elevated given the boundary position. 12Z Sat. NAM low-level EHI (blend of SRH and CAPE) valid Sunday afternoon is below. Boundary tries to lift north (green central Miss.) however, best CAPE (orange) is south. NAM is struggling to juxtapose CAPE and shear, but it's close. Sunday will all depend on morning rain (shocker I know) but even more than usual. LLJ cranks in the afternoon; however, it does not line up with far south boundary (LLJ veered south). If the said boundary lifts north enough it'll line up (LLJ backed north). Mississippi and Alabama issue only.

Thanks Yoda. Also I think the warm sector never fully recharged from the morning MCS despite many hours. Dews did not recover as well as temps. A little veer-back could be overcome if the low-level CAPE was not so low (narrow on sounding). Dews below 65 made it harder for rising air parcels to overcome a warm layer about 800 mb. Said layer was also dry enough to promote the evaporative cooling SPC mentions. Rain falling through it exacerbated the situation (for the storm) but it was a blessing for the Public. Not a tornado day after all. Plenty of straight line wind though. As one would expect if evaporative cooling gets a cool pool going with a big squall line. Convective models got the QLCS. Separately @Matthew70 that picture is incredible. Were they OK in the car? Faraday cage hopefully protected the people, even if all the electronics are shot. What to tell the insurance company? Struck by lightning NOT storm chasing - just going to the store in a non-severe thundershower, ha!

There is the MD for which I'm waiting. If the SPC and I draw the same boundary and forecast, is that a good sign or a bad sign? At any rate instability and low level turning with height will increase markedly when it all comes together West Kentucky and northwest Tenn. Any discrete cell(s) will ingest it all. However that whole MD may get whacked by wind too. MEM south is at risk for QLCS tornadoes.

Wednesday April 13: My target area has shifted, though I do not plan a real chase. Virtual target is north of my previous post last night. Dyersburg, esp the flatter area west of is my target. Lunch in Dyersburg would have been nice! Mississippi dewpoints are under-achieving, not a shock given MCS. Also 800mb is warm on most soundings and fcst soundings (between standard constant press level charts). That means Miss has to work even harder to recover surface T/Td. Yes it'll hit 80 deg. However it might not be enough. Meanwhile outflow boundary OFB lifts north into northwest Tenn. 800mb will cool sooner there. Temps and Dews will almost match Mississippi. In fact dews could recover better, circumnavigating the mixed air over Miss. Dotted green is edge of the more pronounced lower T/Td. Yellow line is the chaser's OFB. It is forecast to lift into the red position by late afternoon. Prefrontal trough is not drawn, but I expect the red OFB to intersect it in northwest Tenn. Hence chase target. 1KM SHR below satellite, numerical models NWP shows my conceptual model. However NWP could misplace the OFB. NWP has robust cells on its intersection with the pre-frontal trough. Chaser would follow the boundary, not the NWP. Just good to see the conceptual model confirmed.

Oh wow! Aluminum bats carry the ball better than wood. Odd decision making. Kind of like chasing the South, haha!

Most of that Moderate is wind driven. However the southern quarter of the MDT is 15% tornado, which straddles the Arkansas and Mississippi border. Pre-frontal trough is quite likely along that AR/MS state line, and eventually moving into Mississippi. Outflow from morning rain and/or the usual Alabama boundary will intersect the prefrontal trough. That intersection is ahead of (southeast of) the synoptic triple point (TP). Synoptic cold front may have a line of storms as SPC says, and the TP a cluster near the warm front. However the pre-frontal trough and OFB intersection farther south could feature discrete supercells if enough local SRH storm relative helicity. Chart looks like a reasonable initiation of any tornadic cells. Could lumber farther east into Mississippi later. Alabama has lower forecast CAPE - but could get some straight winds Wed. night. Wed. Apr. 13 TOR probs.

Now for today Monday April 11, I have to post this. (See my April 6 follow-up previous page.) Little outside of our Region, but today so classic. Mon. April 11 boundaries for the win! First the black X is probably not severe though near boundaries, where they kind of merge in with a synoptic front. Not a classic intersection though. See MD 446. However some strong storms. Red X is classic outflow intersection with front, aligned right for severe. HRRR goes bonkers with supercells in Arkansas. We'll see. Probably something more in between like ARW / NSSL. NAM seemed underdone. FV3 looks good, more bullish than ARW but not HRRR fest. Despite rising heights, it's gonna go. Very much looks late spring like. Setup is May Plains. Terrain is.. Virtual chase from home, haha!

Wednesday April 6 follow up. Yes @PowellVolz that's my intended message back on Wed. At any rate the northern boundary intersection passed over Chattanooga. As expected, we just got some wind. However it was a little more interesting than I'd expected. First of all, going with a Kansas flag is the only way to go last week! Found my little perch in Chattanooga at US Express, a high spot with a good view. Also where I 1st saw Comet NEOWISE with binoculars. In town, but just doing recon before the dark skies. US Express is a sweet spot, both literally and figuratively in my heart. OK back to Wed. April 6. Then this gets going to my southwest over Lookout Mtn. Thankfully it dissipated without incident, because that's Downtown and other densely populated areas. Look back at radar archive and it had weak rotation. Then to my north a horseshoe cloud forms, sometimes an indicator of rear-flank and possible rotation, but I ignored it for a few minutes. Alas the check of radar archive and it was the better rotation. Not pictured. Think common bow horse shoe. Finally this happens! I gave chase to the horseshoe a little late for proper (aggressive) viewing position. I'm SAFE position with it to my north, but I can't see anything. Wind damage is later reported with the feature between Colledgedale and Ooltewah. I can confirm strong wind from west and small hail. Wed. April 6.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk! Thank you all for the congratulations. It is always special. Setting the record for come-back during the Championship is incredible too. I was out of town last week for kids spring break. Tuesday I was recovering from staying up so late Monday. Hard to sleep after all that excitement, and social media with friends back home. Kansas has been hungry since 2020 was cancelled. Some players remain from 2020. Team dedicated the Championship to players from the 2020 team who graduated. Coach Self also has the personal story. Team rallied around Coach after his dad passed away. Now it's baseball season. NBA and NHL playoffs are soon. Most importantly, it's the heart of Southern chase season. April tends to have better visibility than March. Rock Chalk Jayhawk everywhere!

Wow, I love the enthusiasm in here! Relative to past years this is actually hype. Might yet get some severe wx enthusiasts on the board, haha. Temps have over achieve; so, CAPE is higher than forecast. Dews are as forecast, with the higher temps, which means the LCLs are not particularly low and grungy. MRX may be right that LCLs are favorable.. for chasing. Deep layer shear is there, and the upper levels are stout along I-40. However the LLJ did not report for duty. Probably not a big tornado day.

I'm way behind. Drew up this when Mesoscale Discussion 422 came out. Then got sidetracked. Still worth comparing MD #422 with the old image. More notes below image, but first... However now MD #424 is more relevant to us. Feels like they'll go severe, not tornado watch. SPC put out a tornado watch for that southern boundary intersection. As expected went on gravity wave (yellow) intersection with maritime / yesterday outflow (dark green). Local enhanced SRH is almost Plains like. Our MD 424 is for the intersection of the traditional cool wedge (light green) and pre-frontal trough (light blue). It is more what I look for in the South. However, no LLJ saves Tennessee from much tornado action. I draw the cold front in dark blue, but it's less of a factor. Synoptic warm front is north of Kentucky. All boundaries were cross checked visible satellite and surface chart at the time.

True. Even summer could be tempered for yet another year - in contrast to 1st year Nina. Could we be that lucky? Also a third winter in a row with mild Tropical Pacific SSTs does create a cooler background in the broad Northern Hemisphere Atmo, regardless of MJO behavior. Let's do it! First of all for spring @jaxjagman let's try to hold that +TNI. Should we be careful what we wish for? Or just game on!

Showers percolating in southeast Mississippi are on and south of the Gulf Coast front lifting north, out ahead of the main surface trough and line of storms. Cells could be of interest. Gulf front will continue to lift north into east-central Miss. Main line of storms goes from West Miss into Louisiana. It's linear with QLCS tornadoes probable, and likely poor visibility. The new cells out ahead would perhaps provide better visibility; however, typical South challenges of terrain and trees exist. Also even the cells ahead could get into messy groups or clusters. HRRR is keying in on those southeast Miss cells 15-16Z runs. 12Z NAM missed them. 12Z FV3 was meh small cells. However one of the 12Z ARWs (NSSL research) hinted at the cells becoming rooted southeast Miss. Then going into Bama like the FV3. Latest HRRR runs have some ARW support. One could say the ARW is with HRRR (her). Satellite as of 12:30 Central shows vertical development, and turning with height as the baby anvils shear properly.

Showers percolating in southeast Mississippi are on and south of the Gulf Coast front lifting north, out ahead of the main surface trough and line of storms. Cells could be of interest. Gulf front will continue to lift north into east-central Miss. HRRR is keying in on those southeast Miss cells 15Z run. 12Z NAM missed them. 12Z FV3 was meh small cells. However one of the 12Z ARWs (NSSL research) hinted at the cells becoming rooted southeast Miss. Then going into Bama like the FV3. One could say the ARW is with HRRR (her). PS. I'm sorry I missed the thread for today. However I'll keep this here to follow the HREFs charts above. Satellite as of 12:30 Central shows vertical development, and turning with height as the baby anvils shear properly.

Yeah the GFS is trying to do something mesoscale in southeast Tenn. It could happen somewhere. Thunder would of course promote such totals, but wherever it sets up. Thank your brother's family for us down in Chatty! Though that mesoscale feature is a question, intensity and location, the synoptic setup looks good. Cold, lift and moisture are timed together. We don't have to pray for a trowal on the back side. Instead it'll get cold enough quick enough with the main lift. Last post for the afternoon. Chattanooga members of the board are cautiously optimistic.

Early Congratulations @Knoxtron! Baby previous page. I agree roads will be fine or at least easily passable by Monday. Free for All Friday: MRX refers to kissing jets. I want to make love to the upper level set-up. I was going to say the obligatory last-minute bump-up of snowfall totals. Appears justified this time. Normally I'm skeptical just-in-time cold. However we have key factors. We get classic jet induced / PVA upward vertical motion with thick DGZ. Also the isentropic lift. All juxtaposed with cold and moisture for once around here. NO transfer to the Coast; instead, the back wave (our wave) is the stronger one behind what went through the Carolinas today. Kissing jets is the Carolinas jet-let interacting favorably with what's coming out of the Plains. Areas of lift associated with each jetlet/jet stream interact. Kissing jets is the opposite of what often happens here, where they are out of phase and/or sinking motion of the Coastal nixes the lift. Again that's not a concern. It's fairly easy to model both ways, so the kissing jets carries solid confidence. MRX highlights below. National Weather Service Morristown TN 345 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 There is a very high degree of confidence that accumulating snowfall will be seen across the entire forecast area. There is also high confidence that a short period (roughly 2-4 hours) of heavy snowfall rates will be seen. Model plan views show the CWA between two distinct jet structures which will favor strong upward motion. Additionally, cross sections show this deep upward omega along with saturated air extending through the dendritic growth zone and also into regions of negative saturated EPV. All of this supports the idea of high synoptically driven precip rates with the potential for some enhancement via convective processes and resulting 2"/hr snowfall rates. All of this has lead to a broad increase in expected snow accumulations, especially over the central and parts of the southern TN valley, which are locations that should be favorably positioned beneath upper jet structures. That being said, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in a few areas. Geographically speaking, the southern and far northeastern TN valley are areas of concern. For areas east of I-75 in the southern valley, the question is whether the heavier precip rates will have a long enough residence time over the cold air to result in the higher amounts we`ve put in. Trends have been to support higher amounts so that`s the direction the forecast has gone. In the northeast TN valley, models want to hang on to some warmer temperatures near the surface for a bit longer than other areas, resulting in lower snow amounts relative to areas in the immediate vicinity. This is present in both hires model output as well as courser models like the GFS. Still, the trends have been upward there too. Lastly, going back to the convective element, this could easily lead to some overachieving of storm total snow amounts in places while other locations may be very close or possibly lower than forecast. This is something we simply will not know until we`re in the middle of the event.

Friday free for all. Time to start jawboning Sunday and Monday. Sunday Slight gets into Western Tenn. Flat Arkansas Delta might be the most interesting chaser aspect. Heights are rising though. LLJ ramps up anyway. It's almost like a later spring setup. Monday the Day 4 covers the Region from I-40 south. Inverse of my usual snow commentary, ha. Main system is lifting away, but CAPE and wind shear remain in our warm sector. Lots of college basketball will probably keep me home Sunday. Work would be the problem Monday. Unless it mainly keeps south of Tenn.

My Feb. 23 post above was my last peacetime post. I opined in severe wx yesterday but my attention has been elsewhere. We need the Europe warm 11-15 day forecast to carry forward into the 6-10 day. It will provide policy makers more leeway to strengthen sanctions against Russia even further. No politics rule is not violated hoping for a mild forecast in Europe. It's weather!

Yeah the signal could be there. Also seeing a possible colder 16-20 Day. One has to expect a significant system in the transition. Possible MJO move could support the severe wx pattern; however, it's quite muddled right now. Including tropical cyclones which are wild cards - though not as much so from the Southern Hemisphere.

Seeing Tennessee crush Mizzou is the most satisfying thing this week. Honestly it's more satisfying than Kansas crushing in-state rival KSU. Now you know how Jayhawks feel about Mizzou, haha!