nrgjeff

My target is anywhere on that red path, of course the closer the better. Midwest is closest to me. Mid-South is a near second. TX and OH are my next tier of back-up plans; We have motels or places to stay to cover North Texas to Ohio. Wil cancel what's not needed according to their canx policies. If at about 5 days out South Texas or the Northeast US still looks like the only game in town, activate panic button. It could be done, but what a far cry from the Easy Button in 2017 which was clear 45 minutes up the road. About 5 minutes after 2017 we decided we're traveling for 2024. Too early to pin down target areas. Broad pattern still looks trough West ridge East, which is sub-optimal for much of the path. In about a week, we'll know if how we can work around it. We don't want something like April 1-2 positive tilt with the fronts draped along and parallel to the path. Neutral or negative tilt could be managed if the main rain band it perpendicular to the eclipse path. Just find a better spot on the path. Still ten days out; so, there is as good a chance the forecast improves as otherwise. Traffic will be worst departing. Big picnic and drinks. I'm not worried going to, but we will be there early. I prefer ol' fashioned eclipse shadow boxes to the glasses. Image in the glasses is so flat, I feel glasses don't add much value over the box. Maybe glasses for Bailey's Beads. No photography for us again, except killing time in the partial phases. I want to remember going with family and friends, but I'm not going to waste Totality fumbling with equipment. From about 5 minutes before Totality it's all about experiencing it and soaking up every last detail into long-term memory. Cicadas at midday. Birds freaking. Shadow bands on white surface. Then that shadow in the sky. People describe it as eerie, but I prefer majestic. Dark curtain rushing toward is the sign that it is almost time. It's so exciting but at the same time we went silent in awe. The only man-made sound I want to hear during Totality is my eclipse timer. Nice to know how long you got so you don't go blind, haha!

From my location MO/IL/IN are my preferred eclipse targets. All are about tied for shortest distance for me. I have backup and tertiary rooms booked to cover Texas to Ohio. I agree that we can discuss the broad wx pattern, even if it'll be several days before pinning down locations. We do not want a system like April 1-2. That sucker gets positively tilted with fronts parallel to the Totality path. We just can't have that April 8. Current models have the April 7-8 system neutral, but the risk is that changes. Sometimes these things trend to positive tilt. A negative tilt would be easiest to manage, with the main moisture feed perpendicular to the Totality path. WF could be a painful exception, but still probably not the whole path. Trough orientation is all I care about right now. Neutral and negative could be managed by picking a better spot on the Path. Positive tilt could cause much longer drives, heartburn, and gnashing of teeth. I really don't even care about timing as much as tilt. Timing can be managed by changing location. A positive tilt could be heartbreaking. If one thinks it's too early, scroll on. We don't need another noise post (comment with no discussion) in an important thread. If anything, it's been time for a couple weeks now. Finally, perhaps we get lucky and at least short-wave ridging covers large parts of the path. Ten days out the forecast has as good a chance of improving as otherwise. If TX-OH is socked in, at about the 5-day mark I'll hit the panic button and think about the Northeast US.

Yes I remember the clouds 'flipping' from white to dark with the few Cu still around in East Tenn 2017. Thankfully it was totally clear overhead. We also remembered to observe the 360-degree sunset. I did not notice the shadow on the ground, but we were in a flat area. Were you elevated in Aruba? Our main animal obs was the cicadas going off like it's evening. I've read about things like those birds etc. In a previous post I wrote about the smaller orange/pink prominences (much smaller than the silver corona) and I'm glad I remembered to look at the smaller prominences. Otherwise the 2017 delicate corona at the solar Min was absolutely gorgeous. I'm hoping 2024 near solar max the power doesn't take away from the finesse. Anyway we won't get cute with extended Bailey's Beads or Diamond Ring - just in and out of totality. I'll take 4 minutes of totality please!

I'd probably try @PWMan in almost any forecast scenario. In 2017 some KCMO friends thought they were hosed with mid-level clouds but they got a lucky break for several minutes at just the right time. If there is any chance of a breaks in clouds I would take a chance on it. I suppose have some other activity to justify the drive. Again, one should still experience some effects under overcast and observe animals react. Even mostly cloudy could yield bits and pieces of the main show. The KCMO story was a morning MCS. Of course that day clouds lingered well after the storms departed, rather than quickly clearing. Friends gave it a shot despite lots of afternoon clouds. They got the break they needed. Sometimes things actually go right! At this point it's too early to worry about the forecast though. Maybe consider some back-up locations. One can still get a motel off the path of totality in the Midwest no problem. Then drive on in that day, early of course.

New England is my tertiary or 4th backup, blowing my frequent flier miles. Per my location I'd like to see it in the Midwest or Mid-South. Texas and Ohio are my secondary backups before the tertiary gnashing of teeth. For traffic, I like the sports or large concert comparison. No huge problem getting into position if one gets out early. In 2017 we went very early and waited out the partial phases. The build-up and anticipation is fun, like waiting on a storm to gin up. Traffic getting out will be tremendous. One could bolt right after totality ends. In 2017 we found that hard to do. Enormity of the experience required some time to reflect and process it. One could hang out some more, picnic or hike. Probably don't expect a table at a restaurant until you get to a city outside totality. We ate in Chattanooga. We still have eclipse glasses, but it says they expired. Either way I will use an eclipse shadow box more. Image is so flat in the glasses, really no different than a shadow box. Ended up using mostly the shadow box in 2017 for partial phases. Minute before totality maybe the glasses add value, so you know exactly when it's safe to look. Eclipse partner thought I was crazy to use binoculars during totality. Absolutely be extra sure it's not coming out of totality - only do it with 1-2 minutes to spare. Anyway I saw the orange/pink prominences with binoculars. Wider corona is far better naked eye. Really for the whole thing, naked eye is superior. Just took a quick peek at the prominences. In 2017 we were in a solar cycle min. Corona was delicate and seemed to stretch across the sky. Two long streamers were on one side and one long streamer was on the other. The moon was blacker than I'd imagined, but intellectually it makes total sense. Actually everything was even better than the hype. In 2024 we are near a solar peak. I've read the corona will be bolder but maybe more concentrated. Sky may be darker since it's a longer totality. Could be a great vivid contrast. Guess we'll find out if a stronger / bolder corona is pretty. I know I loved the delicate version in 2017. This 2024 will be my second total solar eclipse. Either way it'll be so incredible! Don't forget to soak in everything. Last minute or two is wild when the sky gets darker incoming. Also shadow bands could start 5 minutes early if I recall, maybe just a couple min. White surface looks like the bottom of a swimming pool. I think the cicadas were going several minutes before totality. Deep partial phases are pretty cool too. I think of deep partial and total like structure and tornado to the storm chaser. Of course both are great, but there's only one mission on April 8. Chase the clear skies and it must be Totality.

Vols are still in it! Sweet 16. One of my brackets is doing well, but it requires Tennessee to the Final Four. The others are bust. In other news, the Central/West and Ohio Valley both lack total eclipse threads for April 8. What a pity! New England has a thread, but I sure hope it's clear much closer. We had a thread going two years before August 2017. Who started it? Thank you! Search is acting up now. Tennessee Valley remains the best Region!

Thursday sky definitely had a fall feel. I couldn't put my finger on it, but yeah it was the smoke. Friday we are back in business with a proper deep blue sky.

True as a profession too, lol! I thought the Plains was strange forecasting. Then I moved to the Tennessee Valley. But yeah, the strato fake-outs surely have caused problems for numerical models this season. Probably connect very late and just ruin severe season.

Epic model failure! How a cold forecast goes torch. I'm out until spring severe. Except Banter, always college basketball.

Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often.

Good to read reports of lightning and thunder. We can settle the mid-term debate in the pinned thread. Snow before the season ends!

Indeed @Itryatgolf70 this unusual combo of -PDO and El Nino has been fickle. It's how we get a great storm track, but putting cold air in place is like pulling teeth - without Novocain.

Cold core setups do weird things, but often photogenic things. Saturday on the hardwood Eve. Tennessee goes on the road in what's pretty much a must win game. Gotta get Ws on the road. Kentucky will win hosting Gonzaga. Kansas will win hosting Baylor. Alabama and Auburn are both on the road. I have no idea. Couple other Big 12 games that might be interesting are TCU at Iowa St. and Oklahoma bedlam.

The Indo-Pacific is a mess. Convection that has come east from the Dateline is old news. Thunderstorms percolating over the Maritime Subcontinent (Indonesia / Malaysia) are a warm signal (current pattern) that was supposed to move east into colder phases again. Ope! Got new convection blowing up in the Indian Ocean. As it marches east it gets into the warm signal Maritime Subcontinent again. MJO models are not as messy as the reality I see on satellite. I suspect weather models will continue to struggle for North America. At least the southern storm track looks active.

The next snow is always 3 weeks away, kind of like the next Kansas road win.

South Carolina played dirty, but UT needs to play through that. Oh I have my own problems. Kansas may look invincible at home, but can't win against Q3 on the road. As for the NCAA I've long called it Nazi Commies Against Athletes. It's corrupt, power hungry, greedy, and doesn't want to share with the athletes.

I thought Kansas was inconsistent. Then Kentucky is like, hold my beer! Tonight Alabama and Auburn should be interesting. Hopefully high scoring. So Tennessee has the whole week off? Should be well rested for Saturday.

Big ol' Siberian high invaded China. They have racked up above normal snow cover now. High press extends over the Pole to Alaksa. However a big ol' GOA Low is grinding away. Could get cold again in 2-3 weeks. Fow now, Hurry Up And Wait!

Yeah that's a dubious stat. Anytime from the late 60s to early 80s we had the -PDO and -AMO which is ideal for low latitude winter storms. Basically dig the jet stream south coast to coast. I agree with @John1122 something is awry. I'm on board with the consensus climate science, but the community must do better with so-called data quality control. Stuff like this seeds doubt in the data, and then doubt in future predictions. Burden of proof is still on us scientists, even if we're very confident.

Tennessee is ranked above Kansas this week! KU has played a couple dreadful road games. Tennessee really handled Alabama. Yeah it was at home, but the Vols would have smoked them on the road playing that well. Kentucky shows some high-power offense like we have not seen in a few years. Defense is TBD. Auburn could also make a statement in the SEC. Some of the best weeks of the year are upon us. Time to dig into the heart of college conference basketball season!

Looks like a mild two or three weeks. Two weeks straight warm is tough to do this time of year. Perhaps a pair of 5-7 day warm periods with a cool sandwiched in between. High latitude ridging has sloshed back and fourth between Greenland and Scandanavia on a 4-6 week cycle since Thanksgiving. We'd be due for another cold period the back half of February. Cold wouldn't have the punch after 15 Feb. However it could get cold enough for winter precip. Honestly I could use the break now. Enjoy some Conference college basketball as we dig into the heart of the conference season.

Last visit and post for the night. @Chattownsnow and @Uncle Nasty I think the chart above from @TellicoWx eases the Chattanooga anxiety a little bit. We should be able to avoid a Dallas Cowboys style melt-down. I'll feel better when I see snow falling. Warm air is hanging tough in KCHA but we're always the last to cool off. Already snowing in Knoxville. LOL Chatty. Back to the game!

No I think you're OK. In fact that forecast is so nutty that I should feel better down here too. Cynicism aside, this snow event should work out. Pattern recognition is that the reinforcing Arctic front will anchor the cold. Isentropic lift with mid-level front is near ideal. NAM has its strengths with robust waves, but this isn't that. I may eat my words, but I think everything will work out. PS the Paul Barys post shows up now. Yeah that is about what I'm thinking locally. Time to relax for a bit. I'll be back later.

KCHA Dew is 28. It should fall as the reinforcing front settles in over the Plateau. CAA is fighting downslope right now too, see the dry bulb 44. Both should improve at dark and as the cold air settles in over the Plateau. That said, this is Chattanooga. We have suffered many instances when what looked like a good wet bulb setup failed. We'll find out a lot this evening when precip starts falling enough to impact the low-level profiles. Rather than going neurotic in Chatty, I'm gonna watch this football game for a while. At least until half-time. Unless I check at the next commercial, lol! What did Paul say? Is it gonna piss me off or make me happy?

Beginning of precip will provide much needed information in Chattanooga. See were our wet bulb and dry bulb go. I'm pouring a drink. Will we toast in happiness or rage drink?