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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Tennessee is going to win our Bowl game. Oh Clemson it's Clemson. Yeah but the SEC is tougher than the ACC. Tennessee will win! (Not betting advice) Just have fun getting the W. Also Happy New Year!
  2. nrgjeff
    Yeah @Matthew70 that was historic. It's almost like we get fewer tornadoes, but the energy is rolled up into several big ones. A look at overall history shows more general tornadoes in the Plains, but the 4s and 5s are concentrated in the South. Interesting @jaxjagman that 1989 was the last year so quiet in Tenn. Kansas was dead the late 80s too. Kansas is dead now too like Tenn. In both cases last year the states had notable tornadoes (Andover 2.0) but not much activity overall. Alas the Monday outbreak appears on track but mainly juuust to our west in Arkansas. Best chance of tornadoes is probably the western half of the 15% closer to initiation and the main pre-frontal trough. Could be mostly straight wind into the Mid-South but don't let down your guard yet. Anything going well out ahead on the WF could rotate. Mid-South looks after dark. Daytime action looks Ozarks. With Bowl Games galore on Monday the choice is clear. No chase!
  3. nrgjeff
    Day 4-8 looks valid for Monday severe Mid-South. 12Z Wed. is slowing it down, into the flatter Delta region. Nice! Friday system tugs on Gulf Moisture; then, front does not clear the Coast over the weekend. Perfect for moisture return on Sunday. I always like a second system to ensure deeper moisture return. It’s nice in spring. It’s vital in winter. It’s this set-up. Then the table is set Monday. Winds turn with height forming a textbook curved hodo. Prefrontal trough is forecast intercepting WF or differential heating boundary. Those are fine details for so far out, but also easy pattern recognition. Believe SPC is right to outlook Day 6 in the cold season. Second wave (vs one-and-done) adds confidence to the thermo profile. In winter the wind profile is a given. That said, those who get anxious should not be this far out. Whole thing could fall apart. At the same time, chasers should check their equipment.
  4. nrgjeff
    Belated merry Christmas! We were out of town after being super busy. Chattanooga did better with snow Monday evening than with the Arctic front, according to neighbors. We enjoyed the Monday snow showers welcome home. Today we have Kansas vs some pigs who can’t spell Kansas in the Liberty Bowl. Tennessee basketball is going to Ole Miss looking to prove something on the road after Arizona. I’ll take the Vols all day even Away. Looking ahead I like Tennessee football in the Orange Bowl. Clemson is still good, but Tennessee has just. So. Much. Offense. That’s a Vols win!
  5. nrgjeff
    Above are the odds of SEEING anything in the South. Odds of it happening may be higher, but hills trees, short daylight hours, peaking after dark, etc.. Could be the same story Tuesday in the Mid South and just southwest of our Region.
  6. nrgjeff
    Well it is a Monday.
  7. nrgjeff
    USA loss to the Netherlands. Guess that's what thunder means.
  8. nrgjeff
    Relaod. Rutgers (not shown) has AN snow on the southern periphery of Asia snowcover. We patiently (or not so patiently) await the North America response. Even if SER (or more likely south-central ridge) early, the cold should eventually win out.
  9. nrgjeff
    I figure that SER, really more of a south-central US ridge, will try to hold on through early next week. Eventually the dam breaks in December*. Just too much blocking. *That's a generalization. Not a forecast. I have a long infamous history of jinxing weather patterns; so, just idle chatter.
  10. nrgjeff
    I don't normally just drop Twitter threads, but this one is legit. Original thread is accessible from my retweet.
  11. nrgjeff
    Mid-South Tuesday will depend on daytime heating. Overcast would delay thunderstorms until overnight, and Tennessee would probably escape severe. Mississippi would still face some risk Tuesday night. Greater sunshine on Tuesday would promote high temps over 65 maybe 70, and daytime severe thunderstorms. Scenario would also accompany a farther north and east warm sector for Tennessee and Alabama. Finally, the wind profiles are quite robust both speed and direction. Key to this almost winter set-up is Sunday. The weekend system won't send a front to the Gulf Coast. Sets the table for a quick and perhaps deep moisture recovery by Tuesday afternoon.
  12. nrgjeff
    Turnovers were atrocious for both teams. Kansas needs to solve its size problem. After Duke I said it's how you work it. After Tennessee I see Kansas has a problem. Tennessee sharpened up second half. After my mental wounds heal I can get back to cheering for the Vols when they are not playing Kansas. Tennessee has a shot at winning the SEC, though it's not easy. SEC West has good teams too. Football today has offered closer more exciting games than pre-game spreads, which is nice. Later I probably don't want to watch the Sunflower State Showdown. Tennessee at Vanderbilt sounds better.
  13. nrgjeff
    Happy Thanksgiving! It has been a nice day chillin' with family in Chattanooga and watching more basketball than football. Multiple college games went into OT. Yes Kansas and Tennessee have a date Friday for the Battle for Atlantis Championship. I think we've met in that tournament before. Plus we scheduled home-and-home a couple recent years. So, Kansas and Tennessee is a wonderful holiday tradition! I'm going to try and just enjoy the game. I've come to really like Tennessee sports, but there's no place like home. My prediction, Final score within 2 either way. Cheers!
  14. nrgjeff
    GFS caught onto the two systems well before the ECMWF. Result is the Thanksgiving wave followed by that closed low later in the weekend. EC had everything coming out Thanksgiving before catching on. LOL!
  15. nrgjeff
    Yes in Dec. 1989 we kept 2-3 inches of snow for 2-3 weeks. It stayed pretty white, vs getting dirty, because it was so cold with little daytime melting. I can't imagine that in our current regime.
  16. nrgjeff
    Oh wow Nov-Dec 1989 was ludicrous cold in the Plains. I figure the same here? December 1989 KCMO set its all-time record low two nights in a row at -22 but that's at MCI which was built in 1973. MKC got close to its all-time and it's been around much longer. MKC is in the Downtown heat island, so many went with the all-time story out of MCI.
  17. nrgjeff
    European is markedly better than the GFS for a clipper right after Thanksgiving. Euro punts the midweek rain. So, the Euro shows great snowmaking followed by some natural snow showers in the Mountains. Black Friday opt outside. If the forecast holds, the choice is clear. In contrast to tracking zig-zags; usually, a big flip in the continental pattern like that holds.
  18. nrgjeff
    A few days ago that was severe coming up from the Gulf. Now it's a clipper. Trends like that are bullish cold, but I remain pessimistic. Anytime I'm optimistic it's a jinx. Getting serious, two streams were always progged for Thanksgiving. Appears the northern one is now dominant vs previous southern. The obligatory Midwest winter storm for Thanksgiving is now forecast. If that holds, I'll be in the Southeast Mountains thread.
  19. nrgjeff
    Thankfully I missed all the news from Poland to Florida last night. Also did Taylor Swift have some sort of big ticket sale? It was the Champions Classic! Dickie V was back. All basketball baby! Michigan State "upset" Kentucky. MSU was already tested at Gonzaga while everyone else played small schools. No surprise MSU covered the spread, but I was surprised they won outright. Kansas upset Duke with stifling defense and coordinated (assists) efficient offense. It was a thing of beauty. Need to see the Vols do similar things. They have the talent. Colorado zone D just frustrated them, which is common early season. By January I bet Tennessee will shred any zone D. Did I mention I can't stand zone D? Unless my team is using it, lol!
  20. nrgjeff
    Convection is trying to get into better (for cold) West Pac phases. However when the only Invest is in the Indian ocean, I say the muddled tie goes to the warm signal Indo Subcontinent. Keep in mind my job here is Devil's Advocate; so, I could be wrong. Except I'll be right in southeast Tenn.
  21. nrgjeff
    You love to see it. I'm feeling like some early Thanksgiving week
  22. nrgjeff
    My favorite chart explains a lot today. Not shown, Rutgers snow cover is AN in the NH. Below we see high pressure all over Canada; hence, it's cold in the Lower 48. Note that Siberia is already back in low pressure. That's not just Putin's approval rating. I believe we get a mild couple weeks starting around Thanksgiving. The big question is whether this record -EPO in November (currently) foreshadows more blocking much of this winter. I'd really like to see a full cycle through both patterns. I thought we'd know more by Champions Classic Tuesday tomorrow. It'll have to be the Thanksgiving week basketball tournaments.
  23. nrgjeff
    I wasn't able to watch much of the game. From what you post, and looking at the gamecast graph on ESPN I can deduce Colorado played zone D. Is that right? Vols need to penetrate that. Drive inside. High-Low is OK but don't just chuck 3s without probing. Otherwise, every team will play zone. I can't stand zone D. It should be punished with drives inside, drawing fouls, and even taking offensive fouls to establish physicality.
  24. nrgjeff
    If the mountains were not there, winters would be much better in East Tenn. However the Carolina cliff diving would be even worse, lol!
  25. nrgjeff
    I'll take an order of Holiday severe weather.
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