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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Thursday kind of surprised in Alabama. I figured the CAPE was more robust in Mississippi; however, the line was also forced. Same east-west boundary sat in Alabama, awaiting the pre-frontal trough. Sure enough the boundary intersection was the epicenter. Notably the FV3 got the scenario day ahead. NAM caught on later.
  2. nrgjeff
    I forgot to comment on the big Tennessee win! Vols avenged the Rupp ruckus. When Tennessee plays with energy the defense creates offense. We'll see how things go into March. As of Arks, yeah the extended range looks wet. Most of it is above freezing in contrast to the ice crap progged a couple days ago. Oh the Knoxville article. Regardless of which side one is on the climate debate (another Forum section) a warmer climate with longer growing season is considered beneficial to humanity thanks to food production. Nets drought impacts with longer growing season where moisture is adequate.
  3. nrgjeff
    Cold starting late next week into the 26th weekend has support from the Yukon block @Carvers Gap that's a good description. However I'm not sure how long it'll last. It's been cold-ish for six weeks now.
  4. nrgjeff
    Mississippi I have more confidence in on Thursday. Surface temps should hit 70 degrees with 65 dews. Prefrontal trough will slam into that environment. Alabama will depend on how the warm front behaves. Midday rain would keep it stable. Morning rain lifting into Tennessee would open Alabama to outflow. Little if any rain would leave the warm front, but still surface heating questions. No rain would leave a stratus deck in tact. Stratus is pattern recognition early season warm 850 Ts. Bottom Line: Alabama has two paths to keeping stable and only one path to severe. Mississippi is probably reverse, a 2/3 chance of severe.
  5. nrgjeff
    If it can happen in the Plains in early March, Hesston KS Mar. 13, 1990 it certainly happens in the South. That day in March 2012 was prolific on a national scale. This (Saturday) morning SPC expanded the Thursday 15% east to the Alabama Georgia line. Gets into the Lower Plateau as well. As for the MJO, we got a buffet line of convection going into the Maritime Continent. -PNA is indeed activated.
  6. nrgjeff
    Perhaps we can test the TIMS enhanced version. Tornado watches bring even more snow the next system. For those who get anxious about severe wx I'm just jawboning. Day 7 might as well be day 124.
  7. nrgjeff
    Saturday snow is canceled for southeast Tenn. I'm now much more interested in Thursday severe Mid South. Maybe it'll TIMS after that, haha!
  8. nrgjeff
    Vols got a nice road win! Do we have a snow index for that? Also we need a rave glowsticks reaction. Really good news such as.. Garden thread going means spring is coming!
  9. nrgjeff
    Yeah they might want to ask Memphis truck drivers about that, lol! Models could have been better overnight. Southeast Tenn gonna need more @John1122 Feb 2014 vibes. That one got us.
  10. nrgjeff
    Oh my the 18Z NAM has the correct WAA look 700/850 mb. 500 mb vort max digs better. Going to issue a Snow Lovers Heart Ripped Out by NAM watch.
  11. nrgjeff
    This is a big test for the EC. As @Vol4Life points out the Euro is having an off season. Still I'd like to see even a little tiny hint of WAA at 700/850 mb but the EC upper trough interaction remains a no-go. My personal conceptual model remains Upper Plateau to Mountains and a decent chance MRX to TRI. Lazy general pattern recognition is right 90% of the time. Those are the regions that can squeeze from the northern stream if the southern craps out. Hedge your bets!
  12. nrgjeff
    Weekly products all support severe weather on or after President's Day. AN temps with AN precip Mid South or Deep South. Hints of a passing wave that week before a more robust SER. Then start Hoosier Alley season! Other evidence is a severe favorable MJO impulse. Also the Polar Vortex is locked up so no SSW to spoil early chase season.
  13. nrgjeff
    Yeah look for WAA at 700 mb and 850 mb. GFS and Canadian have it. Ukie too. NAM does not at 00Z Sunday and neither did the Euro. We eagerly await the 12Z Euro! Getting to root causes of forecast differences is indeed the OV PVA. We need Southern to dominate. Carvers explains very well the pitfalls. Event has a high ceiling AND high bust potential, more than usual even here. Maybe if I jawbone in the severe thread it'll help, haha!
  14. nrgjeff
    Some snow north of I-40 mainly east of Nashville would not surprise me this weekend. Above progged moisture for TRI would get the job done. Upper Plateau has a good chance of sticking snow IMHO. Mountains will see some good accumulation at higher elevations.
  15. nrgjeff
    For all you who think SEC refs are biased, Big 12 gave a clinic on poor officiating last night. Kansas was gang raped at the post and hardly any of it was called. Could have scored 4-6 extra points off free-throws. Texas got plenty of ticky tacky calls against KU. Normally officiating isn't an excuse, but this game was scripted to keep the Big 12 close for TV revenue.
  16. nrgjeff
    Threading the needle is the only hope for Southeast Tenn. Otherwise Carvers is right it's mostly strike-outs for the rest of the Region. What am I doing in this thread? Upper Plateau and Mountains could cash in if we can get a buffet line of clippers going. Last time I personally got snow from a clipper was probably KC circa 1990, lol! Does not count NC WV ski trips.
  17. nrgjeff
    Perhaps the thunder followed by snow can verify in the mountains. Just saw another Southeast Tennessee system turn offshore snoozer. I've closed the books on winter Southeast Tenn. GFS picks up on the severe system Day 10 but there are typical questions 10 days out. Watch it slide south and snow on Chatty just to make me eat my words, haha!
  18. nrgjeff
    Both! What else would one expect in the South? LOL Dear ECMWF tee up some North Alabama Day 10.5
  19. nrgjeff
    I feel like this thread is missing posts. At any rate it's always a good time to jawbone severe weather early and often.
  20. nrgjeff
    It's amazing what can happen when High Press is properly anchored north of the region. Too bad it's more than 10 days out. Tennessee showing up on the road. I know the game just started, but the tone is set!
  21. nrgjeff
    Yeah radar misses Plateau upslope. Most of the cloud, at least the nucleation, is below the beam from any radar site. I have settled into talking about everyone else's snow. GFS is caving to the warmer Euro. See you in the severe thread.
  22. nrgjeff
    Don't ask that question in the South, lol! My Cousin Vinny is classic South too. Tennessee, Auburn and LSU should have wins but all are on the road. UK at Bama may be more interesting than whatever spread comes out. Ole Miss at Florida and MSU at Arkansas might have tighter spreads, but who knows? Over in the Big 12, tell me which Kansas shows up and I'll tell you if they beat Baylor. It is a home game, but so was Kentucky. Bedlam (OU at OSU) will be a barn burner but I favor home team.
  23. nrgjeff
    With all the rain softening soil, even a marginal mountain wave event will damage trees. I concur with Matt.
  24. nrgjeff
    Dyersburg is SLEET per correlation coefficient on radar. 11:37 am Central Time. Still true at Noon. Memphis airport is just above freezing but points north in the metro are 32 or lower and have 1/4 to 3/8 inch of ice.
  25. nrgjeff
    Little birdie told me Nashville knows they have a higher ice accumulation risk. They are trying to manage flash flood messaging first. I get don't confuse the public. However if there's a chance of meeting ice storm warning criteria, a WS Watch needs to be out. Advisory upgrade last-minute will make grocery stores comical tomorrow. And Memphis to Paducah. Nothing but pain. Cue up Mr. T / Clubber Lang gif. He just says one word to Rocky. Pain!
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