Jump to content

nrgjeff

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,030

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    If cold air is truly in place downslope is not such a deal killer. How about an inverted trough to enhance snow? Not a forecast. Surface high is not quite aligned to jam down (resupply) cold. ECMWF is a true Miller A, none of this Miller B transfer garbage. Short wave out of Texas gins up a Gulf Low that rides up the East Coast, close enough to get East Tenn. GEFS has two pieces of energy, and is concerning; so, the GFS is not a bearish outlier relative to the ensemble mean. EC is known to miss subtle details, even though it's the better synoptic model. Re the GFS, be scared be very scared of a dry air bust. Fingers crossed the ECMWF scores an important win for East Tenn.
  2. nrgjeff
    Sunday night my location East Brainerd, Chattanooga got a half-inch or even close to an inch. It was sitting atop the grass. Kids were able to build a decent size snowman though. I did not post an ob in the storm thread because I'm three blocks from @dwagner88 and even in fickle East Hamilton Co that's close enough to have matching obs. If he posts I generally will not duplicate. Oh yeah also took snow matters into my own hands. Skied West Virginia atop 6-8 inches of new snow. Once in a while the Mid Atlantic puts together a Western/Rockies type weekend. It. was. sweet! Ski location WinterPlace right off I-77, knowing Interstates would be cleared quickly.
  3. nrgjeff
    It's frequent in spring to kill off severe wx chances via too stable. I can't recall it in winter, but I only have a cynical short-term memory. Key is to get help above the surface too.
  4. nrgjeff
    You're right @Carvers Gap I was comparing with 00Z. The 06Z was dreadful. Pattern recognition says TRI does fine back side. JC might do better than Kingsport but you know more about the micros up there. I was also in a hurry. MRX proper is the dreadful snow hole those runs. It's all meso-scale crap 48 hours out anyway. In a perfect world that comma head goes KCHA KTYS KTRI but that's a big ask, and without other micro-debacles.
  5. nrgjeff
    Yes @Holston_River_Rambler I'm in and out frequently. Re your reply to me @TellicoWx it could be so if that TROWAL is correct. Truest sense of a TROWAL is warm air advection at 850/700 mb from the North instead of the usual Southeast. It's definitely there on the 12Z GFS and why it gets KCHA. If in a hurry one can look for the 700 mb vort max south. Whether or not it's a true TROWAL or standard comma head, it's good news. TROWAL is nice because it's a bonus. Where some systems cut off in CAA, the meso-scale eeks out WAA from the north. PS wow that's a bitter pill for Kingsport.
  6. nrgjeff
    Knoxville north is still in the game East Tenn. Trend is not ideal this morning, but the end of the storm is still 48+ hours out. We need an O/U pool on the TROWAL. North or South of I-40 and I-81?
  7. nrgjeff
    I prefer binary options over snow amounts. I'll take the snow day bet. If the TROWAL passes over NE Tenn the system could recover well after a dismal start.
  8. nrgjeff
    Agree with Carvers above. Southern stream energy is there. Just need a little wave to kick off a system. Plus I always favor getting the cold pattern in place first. Worry about a system later. Unless it's Jackson MS to Savanah GA. Oops!
  9. nrgjeff
    I generally agree with MRX thinking. Valley has MAJOR boundary layer issues Sunday morning. However the comma head / trowal lurks Sunday afternoon. If the main storm track was not difficult enough, that last feature is meso-scale. It could rescue Chattanooga from the snow drought iff it tracks far enough south. However model consensus is no again for Chatty - just north. Western and Middle Tenn look more straight fwd on the main storm track. Middle Tenn now looks to avoid heart breaking boundary layer temps. East winds off the Plateau not enough downslope to crush dreams. Kentucky is going to do very well here. Almost as exciting as the UK Louisville games!
  10. nrgjeff
    NCEP is markedly more bullish than even this morning. Those ensemble individual lows tell the story better than the mean. South! All optimism excludes Chattanooga by default until within 12 hours.
  11. nrgjeff
    Still a slight risk of an energy transfer debacle Great Valley, but it's lessening. Having the 500/700 mb vort maxes south is a nice change! Looks like 850 and 700 (gotta watch that crap too) are colder. Time to dig up the TROWAL graphic too. Classic!
  12. nrgjeff
    You could consider somewhere in West Virginia too. I-77 goes right up to Flattop Mtn and Winterplace Ski Area. Advantage is pretty much all Interstate getting back home. Believe driving time is surprisingly not much greater than that to NC. Also lower warm nose risk. Finally a little birdie told me despite the MLK Day weekend, rooms remain available that way. Be careful about food though. Hearing many restaurants are closed due to staff illness. Sports betting is also legal in WV, lol!
  13. nrgjeff
    My definition of regional temps is a 5-city average of Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Huntsville. Not even close.
  14. nrgjeff
    I think low temps in the 11-15 day will get down around 20 region average a couple days. Unless we get deep snowcover I don't see low teens. Note anything from this weekend will have melted off; so, it'd require another one. February I still think is warmer than normal. MJO indeed is entering a favorable phase for January. Did it ever leave it? Anyway Indonesia convection is pushing into the West Pac... good for Jan. However brand new storms are percolating far west Indian Ocean. When those reach phases 3-5 the -PNA should invade the Western US and allow the SER to re-establish in Feb.
  15. nrgjeff
    I'll go for 3/4 SEC. Kentucky Auburn LSU. Big 12 is competitive but none are consistent. Ditto Big 10 and ACC.
  16. nrgjeff
    ^ This TBH ^ About the only thing I have confidence in with this storm.
  17. nrgjeff
    Tennessee description from @Carvers Gap is a carbon copy of Kansas. I'm not taking KU or UT on the road or if the spreads are wide at home. Speaking of LSU, they won again for me last night. @jaxjagman Auburn is also fun to watch. Kentucky will be in the SEC mix of course. All I know is watching SEC basketball is much better than the Big 12 for my blood press. Sure I pull for Tennessee, but it's not quite as stressful as Kansas.
  18. nrgjeff
    Read discussions from NC, Virginia and West Virginia offices. Even that far north they are worried about warm nose / boundary later west of the Apps and east of the Blue Ridge. High press off the Coast, rather than Great Lakes. Even the snowy Euro has surface temps well above freezing. Honestly I'm already telling friends and family Chattanooga all rain 100% confidence. This is one of those systems that could sharply disappoint even Middle Tennessee west of the Plateau. West Tenn could pull off a miracle while it's still positive tilt clipper characteristics. Once it goes negative tilt the warm nose becomes a threat. Also east winds downslope off the Plateau Mid-Tenn. Great Valley pain east. All this said, I-40 north could get sticking snow. Kentucky should get several inches of snow. Upper Plateau looks good. TRI could be fine back side. The more I look for work (not just being cynical) the more I think this is setting up for major disappointment.
  19. nrgjeff
    Honestly the GFS is better than the Euro at sniffing out a warm nose disaster. That said I'll take some more Ukie. Hey the British Pound is stronger than the US Dollar or Euro right now. Currencies method? In all seriousness, I'm preparing for cold rain KCHA. Might as well go 0-3 and the strike-out.
  20. nrgjeff
    Impressive blowout. Covered the spread and more. Too bad I was chicken to bet at -15.5 but I knew Tennessee would win. Instead I took a stupid bet for KU against a ranked team. No spread but at least the W. In other SEC news the basketball version of the Iron Bowl was entertaining. Free throws will matter in closer games, esp at home where you gotta get the W.
  21. nrgjeff
    Warm nose will win. No surface high. Next? MJO convection is fixin' to push east from Indonesia and recharge the West Pac. That at least keeps the SE US cold.
  22. nrgjeff
    I'm preparing for Chattanooga flurries while Calhoun, GA gets a foot. Atlanta gets missed too, lol! Extreme cynicism is a Chattanooga defense mechanism.
  23. nrgjeff
    Honestly liked the Tennessee energy at LSU; however, LSU was equally energetic and unconscious shooting. Back home can the Vols cover a 15+ spread hosting SC? Vols are going to win, just not sure by 15. In other SEC action Alabama hosts Auburn, which should be a great game. Kansas 13 points over Iowa State is LOL. We are not that good even at home. LSU or Auburn would beat Kansas in Lawrence, lol!
  24. nrgjeff
    12Z GFES mean is closer to the 12Z ECMWF Op solution. Stick that warm tongue somewhere else!
  25. nrgjeff
    EC Weeklies do carry that into week 3. Brrrr! However the -PNA concerns allow a SER to rear up week 4. I'm not concerned about week 4 though. Looks like we are game on for the next two to three weeks. Temps will be cold. Southern stream looks active, plus possible clippers out of the northern stream.
×
×
  • Create New...