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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    Knoxville zig-zag heartburn update.. Should only last another hour. Hard to see Knox radar but Hytop shows better CC trends. Line is finally dropping south on the Plateau. Should translate east. Remember this is not an elevation problem. It's the storm track. Can't promise anything south of there, but Knoxville should barely hold on snow.
  2. nrgjeff
    Going back and fourth another 90 minutes in Knoxville, in infer from CC loop. Gut says switch for good, just in time for rush hour. Schools enjoy your 4-day weekend!
  3. nrgjeff
    Athens reports are disheartening regarding the warm nose; however, this is a storm track issue more than an elevation issue. Athens is higher than Knox, but Knox is in a better spot relative to the storm track. Radar in Middle Tenn is filling in better than I'd imagined. Still light, but not zero. Certainly it's better than the CAMs had depicted with the hard shut-off. North Alabama visible satellite is bumpier than I'd expected by now - a sign of continued lift or at least multi-layered clouds. Both trends are favorable where it's currently snowing. For those in the warm nose, join me and the Dark Side. Let your anger flow through you. We Sith can hope for severe weather next time. This system would be a warm front tornado machine in March.
  4. nrgjeff
    Nashville is mighty close to the dry slot. Southern 840 suburbs are probably about done. Downtown north could get clipped with what little back side this system offers. Meanwhile MRX is growing more confident about Knoxville. Mentions snow and ice covered roads evening rush hour Knox to TRI. Warm nose is trying, but I-40/I-81 are simply in a better position with this storm track than say Chattanooga. Or Signal Mtn. Oof!
  5. nrgjeff
    Correlation Coefficient bright band diagnostics looking at both Nashville and Huntsville radar... West of I-65 snow line is trying to move south, as expected on the back side. Carry on Nashville! Hammer time Upper Plateau! Bright band is trying to hold over KCHA (our mix) but appears warm air is nosing up too. Knoxville is going to be close. Gut says 850 T drops back side before moisture departs - some snow Knox. Like Vols basketball, you have to sweat it out before the win! Can't imagine the TRI Cities busting here. Only concerns are the usual local orographics. Gotta take turns.
  6. nrgjeff
    Snow in northwest Alabama again. I need to be in the Shoals for snow and severe.
  7. nrgjeff
    All rain East Brainerd. KCHA reports sleet and 40, but no pellets at my location. When's the next chance of severe weather?
  8. nrgjeff
    MRX just updated. Knox may start as rain. Quick change to snow. Esp north of I-40. Knox proper will be fine. AFD does not show it yet, but they just wrote it to EMs.
  9. nrgjeff
    As @dwagner88 said we are getting ready for our rainy day in Chattanooga. I doubt any snow later. Initial sleep pellets will be it. Signal and Lookout could get some snow, but I bet less than last time. Knox to TRI axis is a little better relative to the track. Warm valley may be an issue, but I figure snow falls up there later. Regarding 850 Ts it's probably accurate because they do have aircraft. MD drawing even acknowledges the situation with the kink southeast side of the blob. Today is fun for Western and Middle Tennessee, esp Middle. Enjoy the snow!
  10. nrgjeff
    I wouldn't worry about that 18Z NAM. HRRR run off the same WRF is in line with the GFS/Euro. Upper Plateau is staying all snow. Bank on that! Tennessee has sports bettering. What about weather betting? Though I have not looked hard, Kentucky snow looks excellent. PVA is lined up. Should be plenty of overrunning moisture up there. Last post today. You all know my Chattan00ga forecast. No snow in the valley. Wins for Signal and Lookout. Mocs beat Wofford tonight.
  11. nrgjeff
    Re the vort max: Fortunately the flatter / less amped kind of offsets the north. They both keep similar results at the ground. Chattanooga border war. Elsewhere I still think the Upper Valley will be fine, barring a particularly brutal energy transfer debacle. My gut says it'll be OK. Advisories hoisted from North Mississippi and North Alabama northward. MRX will decide in an hour, situated in Eastern Time.
  12. nrgjeff
    Arctic air situation qualifies everywhere but Chattanooga, lol! Long as the vort max is north we have warm nose risk. Downslope is not as much the issue with northerly rather than easterly winds. Meanwhile the ECMWF is steady. Keeps almost all of Tennessee involved. For Chattanooga see above. Signal and Lookout are good. Oh wow! Kingsport heartburn never ends. Do we cue up Metallica? My Friend of Misery.
  13. nrgjeff
    Forum needs a glow sticks rave emoji for a forecast like that above. Reality is that along and north of I-40 and I-81 all systems are go!
  14. nrgjeff
    Regarding last post page 7. Chattanooga proper might score two busts in a row. Looks fine for the rest of East Tenn. Barring a hand-off debacle I think all of the TRI should be fine. ICON follows GFS with Chatty winter precip. Prepare for disappointment in the valley. I'll double down. How about snow in Soddy and Ooltewah but not Downtown or East Brainerd? Signal and Lookout look solid though.
  15. nrgjeff
    Southern Valley warm-nose risk is mainly because the vort max is still north. With less of a defined low level low, downslope will not be the deal killer. Plus the dry air will cool with precip. But that vort max. HRRR is too amped though. We know it's always on steroids for severe. Well the physics of the model remains the same; therefore, one can deduce it's too amped. So the HRRR warm risk is too much. NAM is probably the worst case. Globals of course are all systems go! I feel pretty good about along and north of I-40 and I-81. South is TBD. Note the MRX lowest case still gets Knoxville snow. Shows the classic Athens north. MRX highest case gets Chatt. Official fcst looks reasonable. Nashville, Memphis, Paducah and Jackson, KY also have a public snow forecasts up.
  16. nrgjeff
    1. Tri Cities should do better, or at least be more consistent @Carvers Gap. 2. I'm never excited about Chattanooga @dwagner88. Last post of the day. Cheers!
  17. nrgjeff
    So much to discuss. It does looks like a decent situation state-wide. 1. Sounding is from near the rain/snow line so yes it has a warm nose. What I'm seeing above that is a saturated DGZ. Looks like an isentropic lift event along all the right surfaces. 2. Chattanooga could benefit from dynamic cooling aloft; however, surface temps should remain mid-30s during snowfall if it snows. Signal and Lookout will be snow. 3. @8283 El Nino Baby welcome to Tennessee! Rose Bowl effect in Chattanooga today - I know that's Southern Calif. Chattanooga got blanked but snow sits on local mountains. I used to forecast for several California newspapers including the LA Times and San Jose Mercury News. California micro-climates rock! We will try to satisfy you here in Tennessee. 4. Yeah the banding on the Euro is probably forecast banding of snow. Of course those locations are subject to change. 5. There's still time for East Coast weenies. Our last system surprised them. Can we get two in a row in DC for Ian? As others have noted a less amped slider would really help Chattanooga proper. However it might put us in conflict with Memphis - where snow is quite possible this time.
  18. nrgjeff
    That's not bad right above. 1-2 West. My conceptual model has 1-3 most of Mid-Tenn, except far southern. Then 3-5 looks reasonable Upper Cumberland into Kentucky. Upper Great Valley should do better than last time. Chart looks similar at higher elevations with 6-8. KCHA remains a big warm nose risk. Signal and Lookout get snow again though. GFS below must be forecasting some banding. Not unreasonable, somewhere in the Region.
  19. nrgjeff
    I like the GFS/Euro blend. NAM is still probably too north the 12Z run. UK Met is with the other globals south of the NAM. Still blanks Chattanooga. However it looks really similar to Sunday night. Add more for Western Tenn. If we can get a more diffuse northern boundary then Kentucky remains well in play. Track may be broader north and west. South side (KCHA) still has warm nose issues. Also does not line up as well for North Alabama (still light snow but not nearly as much).
  20. nrgjeff
    Add the Florida Gulf Coast to places that get more snow than Chattanooga. NYC got hammered right after comparing itself to HSV. See what I'm trying to do here?
  21. nrgjeff
    UK and ECMWF join the chorus for I-40 and I-81 north on Thursday. Looks like all good straight east of Knoxville too. GFS has an odd southern solution; so yes, I'd go with the GEFS. OK in Chatty we are praying for the GFS Op. Cold air will be in place. Might not start below freezing, but it's not starting at 70. Starting around 40 is doable with an east wind, except for... you know. ECMWF weeklies in cold for three weeks. Could be a fun January. It has MJO support attm. AN rain Deep South and BN precip here is a good look. Snow holds less moisture.
  22. nrgjeff
    Chart below is important enough to post twice. I just eyeball the convection on the Pacific satellite. The 200 mb divergence or 850 mb convergence or outgoing radiation all show the same thing. Why make it complicated though? Satellite is simple. Now one can look at forecasts of the other variables on the models, but satellite is by far my favorite diagnostic tool. One can also loop it to get an idea for the next couple days. With up to a 7 day lag for effects in North America, that goes pretty far. Oh yes convection is in a favorable area for cold in the Southeast. China chart is also favorable with Siberia ridge and South China storm track. See @jaxjagman above. Sometimes China and US weather go together - depending on what's going on in Alaska. I like 2-3 weeks of cold. Mild interlude sometime next week would not shock me. Northwest Canada ridging never really settles down, so I could go with the CFS 16-20 Day with another cold shot. Unfortunately that could be it. I'm joking spring starts after Martin Luther King Day. However if the mild interlude fades (to normal or cold) late next week that could be signs of a more durable cold pattern.
  23. nrgjeff
    Yeah @Uncle Nasty we know the physics, but it's still a tough pill. I mean the picture right above is not that far away. Chattanooga is of course the lowest elevation; so, downslope does more here. Also the Mountains are directly east-northeast, so that just magnifies the relief over which the downslope travels when a surface low is pivoting. KCHA misses the critical time of snow. Cold air simply must be in place first. We've done it from mid-30s before, but I've never seen it starting above 40 with rain. Tri-Cities is always a pressure cooker. I mean at least in KCHA we can just set our expectations low - or go up Signal/Lookout where it snowed. Kingsport has to get going early on the east wind; otherwise, the north wind on the very back side is downslope. Johnson City often has to endure downslope crap before the wind turns around more. Parimutal racing metaphor. Kingsport is a breaker and JC is a closer. If Kingsport does not break it's over. JC just has to wait. Bristol seems to behave a little closer to the Norwegian cyclone model, unless warm nose hell which often delays.
  24. nrgjeff
    Some crap never changes. Expected but still... Congratulations to everyone else who got snow. LOL Tuscaloosa but not Chattanooga. I understand the physics but I'm still shaking my head in disgust. Again, I'm happy for everyone else in the entire free World who got snow!
  25. nrgjeff
    LOL Tuscaloosa gets snow and Chattanooga is blanked. Sh!t no wonder I like severe weather. Birmingham eventually change over? Otherwise Chattanooga needs a friend of misery.
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