nrgjeff

Wow that's some serious damage in the Chicagoland suburbs. We down here in Chattanooga know the feeling. Midnight Sunday evening. EF-3. Not cool. On the bright side @hlcater that's a very nice chase account on the previous page. I think that's the only pic of the second tornado I've seen. Good stuff!

Sunday night I saw lightning and heard thunder locally for the first time since maybe April. Could be March. It was a great night time light show. Storm missed by a couple miles, which actually improved line of sight with the lightning. A week prior we had thunderstorms in Florida, but that's not news in June down there, ha. Night lightning is not a Florida specialty though. Twas so nice to see frequent lightning back home on Sunday.

Mississippi has been pummeled two days straight. Some areas have 10+ inches of rainfall and Flash Flood Emergencies posted this morning. I think MEG (Memphis NWS WFO) posted some observed rainfall charts. Meanwhile an MCV is in Alabama this Noon hour Thursday. Mostly cloudy ahead of it should keep things stable. Suppose I agree with SPC. General. Snooze. When's the next hurricane?

Long as we can keep the 500 mb ridge parked North, adequate rainfall should continue in our region. However it's sooo humid! I know, it's June in Tennessee. Possibility of a true cool front next week including lower humidity. That'd be an excellent mid-June break.

Slight Risk in the Mid South includes 5% tornado. MCV magic season. However I figure any tornadoes would be brief and perhaps low contrast. Leading edge of MCS. Much of the 5% is also in moderate to high flood risk from WPC. Northern part is in just awful terrain where the Tennessee River curves north back into the state, and into tree-filled hills.

Classic 2% Plateau things

Thank you @Carvers Gap but I have a little help from an energy weather subscription. Focus is temps, but of course I look at precip. And glean info for severe, hehe! Lawn has barely survived my tough love regimen. If rain fails or under achieves today I'll have to water. Looks like more rain later next week, but that'd be too long a wait. Due to a kid recital this week I did not make it to the Plains. I would have busted in Kansas anyway, and been livid about missing the Nebraska tornado fest. So it all worked out. Marginal risk local today. Can we get an Upper Plateau Surprise? What about Sand Mountain, Alabama? Both are very unlikely, but I'm bored and need to talk about something. It'll take an elevated area with a little greater low level wind field. Finally the actual thread topic, Mid Range looks like no early heat waves. ECMWF weeklies are quite mild. American weeklies are hotter. I'd split the middle around normal temps. Long as the ridging stays North, we should get back into a normal rainfall regime.

I like western Oklahoma today, except it'll be so crowded! Kansas convection does not seem to want to enter Oklahoma, keeping OK undisturbed. Also some gravity waves are down in Oklahoma, well ahead of the Kansas cold front. Those will likely be a focus for afternoon development. HRRR seems to have that. 12Z NAM/AWR versions had too much northern Oklahoma action early. While I normally don't lean on mid-morning HRRRs they are probably more accurate than the 12Z suite. Reading some cold front pessimism in places (dark corners of the Internet, lol). We are talking gravity waves south of the CF. It's May 27 not May 7. Could work out!

Today May 26: Parameter space supports SPC 15% hatched. 50kt at 500 mb and 40kt at 850 mb. Turning nearly 90 degrees. CAPE 3,000-4,000 j/kg. Two boundaries may support cyclical supercells and multiple or long-track tornadoes. WF/OFB lifts north to around I-70. Been a focus of the CAMs for a few runs. Despite slight cluster risk, pattern recognition calls for supercells. Second boundary is the quasi-DL coming into southwest Kansas later. Winds remain backed ahead of it with ample moisture. While 700 mb is warm, the cap should bust via explosive development. I believe both targets are fairly equal. Tomorrow May 27: Depends on overnight MCSs. Boundary should be draped in southern Kansas. While it may behave like a CF early, stalling makes it more OFB. Late May the CF crash risk is low. Terrain is not ideal in northeast Oklahoma; so, one would hope northwest Oklahoma or southeast Kansas. Still just enough cross-boundary upper flow for supercells. PS Friday May 28, boundary still in West Texas.

Thursday signal has been on the models since the weekend. SPC is right to highlight it. First of all I believe the NAM is too veered off, too fast, and overall wrong. At 84 hours that's well beyond it's strength. NAM is good to about 36-48 hours. GFS has finally found a consistent groove for Thursday. It's barely got enough shear, both speed and directional. Normally I'm bearish cold fronts. However in late May all boundaries are game on. Enough cross boundary flow is forecast aloft. ECMWF is a bit east and south too. That may pull back with time. Though the Euro is slower / west Wednesday it wants to push faster east Thursday. Doubtful, even with an MCS. Bottom line: Thursday should be a good chase day following the Wednesday fun. Friday is up in the air, but a boundary will remain in late May.

I'll tell you what burns me up. SER forming, and no Plains severe. High Plains yes. Traditional central Plains no. Then it goes more Mid South than SER which might as well be death ridge. Bottom line: Unpleasant heat comes in here, but I'm not in the Great Plains chasing. When did central Plains severe get as hard as snow in the South?

Every weekly product has been a debacle for about a month now. I would not worry about the upcoming 7-10 days. Huge Mid South Ridge is probably drier than even a SER; however, it looks transient. Return to +GLAAM would punt that ridge as forecast. Might stubbornly linger as SER, but eventually get beat down. If we repeat last year, with highest 500 mb anomalies North summer, the door opens here on the soft underbelly of such a ridge. Fire hose is off, but I think normal rain in June. Perhaps most of summer. Should I water now? Probably. On the other hand May heat is not like July heat. Might let the lawn endure some tough love. Shrubs remain in excellent shape.

I'm glad my radar is over in Hytop. More and more I'm convinced there's a just-right distance; and, it's not necessarily super close. Of course far gives away vital accuracy, and radar holes still need to be plugged. Back in Wichita I would often use Vance to interrogate local storms. Wichita radar is right at the airport, which is in town; therefore, the radar beam sometimes undershoots if the storm is right in town. Memphis radar showed rotation, but not a TVS at the time of the tornado. It was a bit loose for TVS. However the next scan showed that debris in correlation coefficient. That's a confirmed tornado good as a spotter report. Was it part of ground clutter? All I can say, it was juxtaposed with the rotation. Plus old fashioned reflectivity hook and debris ball. Some grace is called for with the wording. It was probably the standard warning text; and by that point, they just had to get the warning out without editing ASAP.

Right about when KC Chiefs drafts solidified our offensive line, that blocking also went up into the -NAO. NFL Draft teleconnection? Weather is complex. Tropical forcing failed. NAO won. However the risk was always there, with a rising (now verified) GLAAM forecast. S* happens in weather. Tropical forcing will have another try starting about May 15. It's weather. We'll see. However Mets are tired of Monday morning QBs who never attempted a forecast. It's understood that any hype past 7 days is just jawboning, not a real forecast. Positive vibes to all the chase-cationers!

Yes it is. Anyway looks like East Tennessee is in the clear. Nice and stable.

Well, if the Bama boundary lifts north this afternoon... Cullman!

6:21 AM Central Time, Tuesday May 4

Another beautiful spring overnight in Dixie Alley! Figured it would run into stable air in Alabama. I'm impressed it got that far north and east to Tupelo. In April instability return often under-performs. In May it can over-perform. I'm not impressed with the low level jet today or Tuesday; however, it's May. Finally we need a Twitter poll. Cullman, AL. Yazoo, MS. Moore, OK. All three could be an answer too.

Plains storm chasers will take an order of that KW and MJO. Don't worry about it @Blue Moon minor scuffles are a part of Internet weather boards. We've had far more positive interactions than otherwise. Do keep posting. I forgot you're relatively new. We include all here.

Monday and Tuesday the low levels will be veered off; so, the tornado threat is fairly low. 2-5% is reasonable. Don't expect them to raise it. Waste of CAPE I know. However I'd watch for hail. Of course straight line winds are on the table too both days. Honestly though my mind is out in the Plains the following week.

You are trolling Bro. I’ve a thick skin from work. However I call out Internet trolls, period. Anyone wonder why Meteorologists are leaving the forums in droves? American Wx and Storm Track are bleeding Mets. We are switching to invite only niche Discord servers. However I do still like American Weather, Tennessee Valley best for winter. This is the best sub-form for South winter, and wishing, haha!

SPC has moved the 15% forward for a Slight Risk on Sunday. I like their use of pattern recognition. ECMWF is more bullish (ENH material). GFS is slop (Marginal verbatim). Sothern stream wave in early May certainly calls for Slight Risk. For those on the forum who get anxious about severe, I'm not at all worried about a big tornado day. Looks like straight wind mostly. However in early May we can't take a few tornadoes off the table.

Chances are the second will be easier. I'm hearing it's one or the other, not both. What brand did you receive? I got Moderna and have been fully vaccinated for a week. First was uneventful, just a sore arm. Second was actually less sore. However I was so sleepy the next day. Still retained moderate energy though. No headache, other than mild I need coffee on a cloudy day. No chills. No fever. No problem! Sleepy but with energy, in my case, is defined as taking a cat nap and then going jogging.

That mini-sup Wednesday. Something about slight risks, with stationary fronts, in northern Middle Tenn. Fortunately this one did not get out of hand!

Hey @Blue Moon this is a seasonal thread. ENSO discussions are for the 3-18 month range. We all knew La Nina would fade. Everything is going exactly as we have foreseen. Read more and post less, Sport.