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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Olga Oct. 25-29, 2019 brought TS strength winds to West Tenn. Believe it was still designated TS or STS but greater than TD at the time. Back to current: Zeta caused a couple Halloween decorations to face-plant. We will rebuild, lol! PS. Dewpoints of 70-72 are quite frankly unacceptable in late October.
  2. nrgjeff
    Well now my friends, Zeta may still be a minimal tropical storm when it crosses from Alabama into North Georgia. That means steady wind from North Georgia up the Southern Appalachians, especially the Smoky Mountains. Forget about the Cat 2 noise on Twitter, though it's not totally out of the question. Main issue is the forward speed. With the help of the mid-latitude trough, Zeta will scoot right along relative to earlier tropical systems. Though weakening quickly, a quick 15-hour ride from the Coast means it can still be tropical storm strength. Usually I'm not a, goodie we got a TS guy; however, I'm bored. Can't see any interesting severe wx, at least not during the day. Hopefully the WS goes to Game 7.
  3. nrgjeff
    GFS and NAM have dews lower than the ECMWF. Enough rain on Wednesday would help prevent the higher dews advecting north. 70+F really is cruel and unusual punishment this late in the year.
  4. nrgjeff
    Latest European weeklies line up with the tropical convection for the last forever. Except for next week's cold front, it's mainly warmer than normal weeks. Especially weeks 3-6 have a screaming +ABNA pattern. That's not super warm here, but no way to deliver cold. Warmest anomalies are north and west. I would think it's the secondary pattern. Would last until about Thanksgiving. Then the primary pattern in La Nina would be that stubborn SER. Neither is really cold here, which is not a surprise in La Nina. Guess I'm saying the same thing over and over. Mainly warm. Hope for a well timed miracle. One of those Plains cold outbreaks bleeds southeast correctly timed.
  5. nrgjeff
    Yes this weather is simply perfect. Looks to continue for several days (except maybe Saturday) as all global models slow down the Big Front. Only the ICON is still cold before Halloween; but, it's an outlier. Looking for more leaf viewing this weekend. Probably about 3,000 FT. We jumped a bit early last weekend, but still made the best of it. Got the blue sky pics which might be elusive this weekend. However sometimes bright overcast is good in photos, with minor 'help' on the PC, lol! Halloween weekend could be good lower elevations if the front just prior is not too windy. Also note the early Fall time change this year Sunday November 1.
  6. nrgjeff
    Let's do it! I'm happy the Challenge will go forward despite the pandemic. Kansas at Tennessee will be close. We might not know the winner for a couple weeks. Just kidding! Last I checked the Champions Classic is still on for late Novie. However I think some of the bigger early season tourneys are cancelled. Big 10 fb starts this weekend. LOL that two of their teams have such high probabilities for the BCS. Really? They haven't even played one snap yet!
  7. nrgjeff
    Next year we will do the Blue Ridge on Fall Break. Seems to go 7-10 days earlier than Tennessee or even the Smokys, timed with fall break. Those pics on the Parkway are stunning. Even the cloudy day the trees pop out. Here is Saturday October 17 on the Cherohala Skyway. Pictures are taken from just inside NC at about 4,500 FT. Higher was well past peak. Lower was green. Past weekend only a thin 500 FT section was peaking. We enjoyed that elevation quite well. I suspect the 3,000-4,000 FT area will be great this coming weekend on the Tennessee side.
  8. nrgjeff
    My only thoughts are Bearish. What's new right? North Pac certainly helps with cold air delivery - just not here! OK the Mid South maybe. But I forecast a winter of malaise for the actual Tennessee Valley. Farther northeast (MRX/TRI) could do ok. I have strong doubts anything of note will happen HSV to CHA. I know it only takes one bowling ball, but nah. Forecast model failures recently point to the trend. SER likes to hang on, even w/o an upper ridge. Just stay warm. Eventually cold air will bleed southeast a few times. Then I'll forecast drizzle and 38 for KCHA.
  9. nrgjeff
    Sports has been a disaster from Volunteer football to Braves base running. The only thing harder than being a Vols fb fan is being a Kansas fb fan. Poll. What's worse. 1. GFS extended 2. Kansas football 3. Atlanta base running Kansas and Tennessee fans look to NFL/Pro or await basketball season, and pray it's not covid crazy.
  10. nrgjeff
    Ensembles and Weekies have settled on the hurry up and wait solution. Cold front coming. Just wait another 10 days. We can trust the timing. Halloween cold front is usually money.
  11. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Oh I saw a webinar yesterday about SSW and related events including early season, last warning, and something called reflection. I'm sorry I can't share it. However the reflection case resembles the ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern, which is also related to charts Jax shares including Asia and North America. All 3 tie in. Good stuff! Reflection is both horizontal and vertical. The vertical requires the stratopause be in a certain state. Warm energy from the West Pac Tropics pumps up a ridge in eastern Siberia. China gets cold. Pattern reflects a wavelength downstream over North America. Canada mild USA cold. At the right wavelength looking at Asia weather charts can help with USA forecasting.
  12. nrgjeff
    Eddie Van Halen passed away. I'm going to be pretty bearish for a few days. Much above normal temps this winter. No snow. Nocturnal tornadoes.
  13. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Looks like MDT Nina. Oh yeah Jax our posts are three weeks apart. Definitely a different sequence. At any rate, tee up a SER most of winter. Cutters. Severe wx. SOS
  14. nrgjeff
    That's good news, except for more of those snow clown maps on Twitter, lol! Euro at times gets even more carried away than the GFS, depending on the vendor algorithm. Baseball wild card was fun. Games all day like March Madness. Still have a ton of sports overlapping now with the NBA Finals, MLB playoffs, and lots of football. Ironic that after missing sports for several months, we now enjoy a huge sports period that started with the NHL and NBA playoffs. Now college football is full steam ahead.
  15. nrgjeff
    Yes 1989 was the winter of record back in KC. All-time record low was set two nights in a row at -23 F. However that's for MCI since 1973. I think Downtown MKC has a colder older record, but that'll stand due to the urban heat island now. Apparently the 1989 wavelength was fairly big if Kansas and Tennessee followed the same pattern, vs cutter city over here. The blowtorch second half was the same too. Wow back in the days we had full latitude troughs for everyone! Other big years 1985 was more over here, cold but nothing spectacular in the Central Plains. 2000 was more there than here. I was about to put this in Fall; then, realized it's winter. All the out-of-region stuff I'll go Banter. Now in 2020 I'll go stubborn SER for at least southeast Tenn. I could see northeast Tennessee doing fine in La Nina. Then when the trough is Central US, a nice Mid South winter hammer. Everyone but CHA and HSV. Barring a one-day miracle.
  16. nrgjeff
    Around 3:30 Eastern today Friday a tornado touched down around Myrtle Beach / North Myrtle Beach. Plenty of stills and videos on Twitter since it's a tourist area. #scwx will bring it right up.
  17. nrgjeff
    Yeah the +ABNA does have some blocking as Carvers notes. However the Alaska / northwest Canada source region is on fire. +ABNA can get it done down here locally with split flow, but that's not usually good for Region wide fun. Plus I'm just a very skeptical bear. If I can find just one reason to go warm, against 3 cold, I'll go warm. It is the South. Everything lines up, or cue up Toad the Wet Sprocket 1992, something's always wrong. Given a decent La Nina and QBO fail I'm seriously warm winter at work, no joking. However fall leaf season looks superb!
  18. nrgjeff
    European weekly charts line up with the cooler than normal outlook through the first 10 days of October. However, it ends there. Rest of the weeks are slightly warmer than normal. AN heights stretch from the West across Canada. Return of the +ABNA. Cancel winter? Well, this is the fall thread. Good news is the next few weeks will be good for leaves turning on time. Just avoid any wet wind storms. Early next week is not an issue. Same system in 15 days would be awful.
  19. nrgjeff
    Latest QBO coming in positive. The -QBO appears to have failed like a few years back. Looks like a long mild winter. Might as well look to Dixey Alley action. Wake me up in March for basketball and storms.
  20. nrgjeff
    I want to be a cynic and say it failed the last two times in the 11-15 day. However this time it has plenty of teleconnection support. Also East Asia looks more friendly upstream. That's just for the next 2-3 weeks. For winter, revert to cynical skeptic.
  21. nrgjeff
    I felt the same watching the Chiefs. When they looked awful I actually said out loud, I wish CBS would have saved me the pain and just shown Baltimore here! Things turned around of course. Why can't we have normal wins anymore? Always with a side order of heart attack, lol! Meanwhile the Saints choked last night. What is it with the NFC South? Can't stand the Raiders!
  22. nrgjeff
    Atlanta Falcons meltdown reminds me of cold November 2019; then, mild winter 2020. Why do the Chiefs have to give me a heart attack before winning? Titans kind of did too as JAX rallied, but the Titans held. Baltimore looks good. Tonight, Nola please beat the worthless Raiders! Do we have a Fall banter thread?
  23. nrgjeff
    I like John's cynicism. I strongly approve that message! Remember November 2019 setting the table for this epic snowy below normal temps winter? Sure was a nice early spring! OK I will try to share a shred of optimism. Only takes one day. Chattanooga Magic Saturday February 8.
  24. nrgjeff
    I saw the same. Weeklies do look blocky; however, we still might have to hurry up and wait on wavelengths and other features. If the Canada ridge goes mega-ridge, we are back in that +ABNA summer weather pattern. Siberia is also doing +ABNA things on the weeklies. Fortunately in October that's not as humid. Temps near normal, but no big trough either. Also, to give fair time, haha... There are some 16-30 day analogs with blocking and the +PNA and +WPO that go pretty cool. +WPO might be meh in winter; but at these early fall wavelengths, it's actually cold East. Selfishly I'm hoping for the normal/warm scenario. While I love cool mornings, warm afternoons get me more in the mood for fall foliage. In the relatively shorter-term there's Wilfred/22 for next week. ECMWF favors a track between that of Laura north and Sally south. Caution a 7 day forecast; but, inland storm chasing hopes always spring enternal!
  25. nrgjeff
    More positive news from MEM to BNA. Depending on wavelength and the like southeast Tenn could still be in the SER screw job.
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