nrgjeff

The flashes of lightning and the sounds of thunder Monday evening were particularly sweet! I feel like last thunder was early this fall, creating a longer than usual wait. Also... First thunder after the new year is always nice; but, I felt extra content this year. Almost a feeling of peace, tbh. Why those descriptions? It has been a trying ten and a half months so far with the pandemic, damaging tornadoes* and not chasing much last year. Lightning and thunder felt like a preview of a possibly (hopefully likely) more normal spring and summer. *While I'm interested in severe, high impact tornadoes are a turn-off. I'm hoping spring 2021 offers safe chase days in Dixie, and a Plains season later. For some thunder Monday brought snow Wednesday! Does that count? Anyway we are flexible on severe wx. Birmingham tornado was late and nobody was watching. By morning Twitter had it. Then TLH is Southeast. If it's not middle of the night we'll talk about North Alabama, most of Mississippi and southern Kentucky. Huntsville and Muscle Shoals, AL are definitely Tennessee Valley. We sometimes go as far west as the Delta and south as Birmingham.

We occasionally discuss severe as far south as Birmingham over in the Tennessee Valley region. We also discuss Mississippi sometimes as far south as Jackson. Tenn Valley region on this forum is more broad than the literal river valley. Typically we leave Atlanta to this Southeast region, but we'll talk North Georgia in the Tennessee Valley region since it's right up on southeast Tenn. Atlanta has enough members to typically generate discussion here in Southeast. Huntsville and Muscle Shoals, AL are discussed well in Tennessee Valley, for those North Alabama severe days. Rest of Alabama and Mississippi kind of depends on where the center of the threat is forecast. Safe but exciting spring to all!

Well that was interesting. First John is right the tail end was mostly under radar. Interesting system had a deep DGZ (dendrite growth zone, on sounding) which was closer to the ground late. Speaking of that rich DGZ, it was ideal across Kentucky and northwest Tenn. Sounding was nearly saturated at temps between -10 and -20 from around 700 mb up through 500 mb IIRC; I just remember it was rich. Didn't look too hard since Chatty was out, but I quickly double checked after seeing those half-dollar flakes out west. 850/700 mb were the cold side but still ideal. 500 mb was that -23C maximum production temp. It was a textbook DGZ beautiful... Until what started out looking like an over-achiever outran the low level cold air. Low level CAA had surprised me into Nashville. Of course it could not make it over the Plateau. Of course downslope was fierce in the Great Valley. DGZ followed the wave aloft, but was wasted on a warm boundary layer. Oh Kingsport, welcome to Chattanooga pain! I'm guessing Johnson City on the other side did a little better overnight, unless moisture departed too quickly. Any JC reports? MRX discussion says it well. So the CAA was great west of the Plateau but pressure rises (wind direction too) hurt east. So it's always a zero sum game in the South? Be nice to get a region wide win.

I bet the skiing today is electric! Note there's no lightning this afternoon so it's safe to make silly puns - plus ski and ride. Support our local ski areas if you can. Original video is previous page. Thundersnow rocks!

The warm sector had entered Middle Tennessee. January thunder is nice, especially if February snow follows it, haha. Figure they'll keep the Marginal. Instability is there, though modest. Despite some warm air in the sounding, there's SRH and low LCLs - Dixie Alley things, lol!

Yes the WPO is there by Day 10. Still have a Western US trough though. Actually I trust Day 10 a lot more than Day 14. Anyway we'll look for progression WPO to EPO and get that west trough over here into Feb. Might be after the 5th of Feb. Fingers crossed.

1. Late week snow looks like a Plateau to Northeast Tennessee special, with the Mountains too, most of it post frontal. Of course that is a non-starter southern Tenn. 2. Per satellite, MJO is trying to nudge into colder phase 7, but it's a fine line because phase 6 becomes less cold late January and mild in February. Then some EPS members trying to go phase 8 by Day 14, which would firmly settle the issue - huge iff there at the end of the forecast period. 3. Atlantic side blocking and occasional Scandinavia ridging continues, delivering cold to Europe. Alaska ridge is still AWOL for at least 10 days with a trough West. Some ensembles hint at the trough moving east toward Day 14, replaced with AN heights West. That's the unreliable end of the forecast though. 4. Still had that strato warming about a month ago now. Statistical correlation is highest Europe, second highest Asia, and actually pretty low North America. However NA can get a delayed reaction, causation is debatable though in a blocky environment anyway.

Maybe the atmosphere will lead the SSTs which can happen. It's a package deal. I almost wrote hopefully, but maybe I should take a more neutral approach to the topic. A delayed +TNI response would not hurt my feelings. Honestly I'd rather travel to the open Plains late season. Early season Dixie is sloppy. In other news, I don't think Monday Jan. 25 will be a thing. Maybe just enjoy the warm temps in the warm sector when it's not raining.

Planet pre-observation for Friday night: Uranus should be visible through binoculars or telescope just to the lower left (mainly lower) of Mars. Couple nights ago Uranus would have been easy to find between Mars and the Moon, but of course it was cloudy. Moon has moved. Planets are a little slower compared to the Moon. One should be able to find Uranus lower slightly left of Mars, about 7'clock that's direction from Mars (orange or reddish). Well the time might work too, just make sure it's dark. Uranus is not visible without magnification. This wasn't worth a thread, but it's more than banter. It will soon be an observation. Should be valid Friday and Saturday night. Sunday night looks cloudy. Have a good weekend! UPDATE regrettably it was cloudy Saturday and Sunday. Friday Uranus was hard to discern from stars using binoculars; however, Uranus is a small blue disk through a telescope. Nothing like the other planets, but obviously a planet vs a point of light star. AHEAD I would think Uranus will stay near Mars for a few days. Honestly it's easier to use a programmable telescope. Will attempt Andromeda again. Usually it's obvious in a 'scope but I don't think I was lined up right Friday. All of the above are pretty high in the sky early evening.

While I can remember some New Years thunder, it's usually after Martin Luther King Day. Well, here we are! Funny we say that about both snow and thunder. Well, both require a decent system so there's the link. Monday Jan. 25 looks interesting but no concerns; also, it's still several days out. Couple things look more like spring than winter. Upper level winds are forecast WSW with the wave vs some big ol' teardrop SSW wind. Also allows a just right 700 mb temp forecast, but that's too detailed seven days out. Still the 700 mb forecast is probably why models don't break out a Gulf Coast MCS. All that's subject to change. Climo sure says so. Another reason the Deep South may have little convection is wave timing. Again seven days is too early. Of course there's two waves forecast. Early wave would have subsidence behind it. Also the LLJ could get veered off that way. All these problems sound more like early season climo. Such a LLJ from the moist sector would support heavy rain on the warm front and or in the Mid South though. Bottom line: I have little concern about severe weather next week - except heavy rain. However I'd rather talk about thunderstorms than the winter pattern right now.

Looks like most of it will be snow showery, with occasional squalls. Forecast in two waves mainly Friday night and Sunday night, with an in between lighter chance Saturday night. The latter two may have timing shifts or even flip flop intensities. Such is modeling in fast cyclonic flow. Also any daytime hours over the weekend (when not in subsidence between waves) could pop snow showers. Looks light for Nashville, kind of the west side of these snow showers - yet still in the zone. I have doubts about Chattanooga mainly due to downslope. Might be cold enough nights, but still fighting drying wind off the Plateau - not a good flow for snow making over into southeast Tenn. Even when snow makes it up and over elsewhere - hello Knoxville. Also looks good MRX to TRI. Of course the Plateau will get magic! Could be productive in the Mountains too.

Deep -AO can't even help Tennessee. Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi yes. Spain definitely. Tennessee going like our football. I have not commented on the last two systems due to work and online school crazy. However I root for y'all in the zones. News is much brighter in basketball land! Vols and Jayhawks have both bounced back with 1-2 wins including Saturday. Tennessee is so energetic both sides of the ball. We meet in a couple weeks!

Track issues aside, I'm encouraged to see Chattanooga thickness 540 or below when or shortly after precipitation starts with both systems. In January (vs March BL questions) 540 ought to be cold enough. That's only good news farther north and west along I-40 (BNA, MEM?) and especially northeast. It's tricky in Huntsville. What's new for HSV and CHA? Appears that cold air tries to get in place before both systems. Big upper ridge in eastern Canada helps deliver the surface highs. Then there are 50/50 lows; honestly, I hate that expression. 50/50 is worthless in a mild stormy pattern. However next week proper ridging is forecast in eastern Canada. Also for a wider swath of snow we need that Western US ridge to verify; and, not let any energy sneak through the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies. Diving down the Plains and sliding across the Deep South is what we seek. Southern stream energy caused the Georgia tornadoes. Though the synoptic low went through the Midwest, southern stream energy and trough did Georgia. Now, do it with cold in place. Past performance blah blah blah. Main takeaway: I always like 540 thickness. The old fashioned method is sweet news to me - esp mid-winter.

Saturday I felt multiple disturbances in the College Basketball Force. Tennessee lost in Knoxville to Alabama. Vols let your hearts not be troubled. A January loss can promote excellence later in the season. Lack of home fans likely takes away some home court advantage. A much bigger debacle unfolded in Lawrence, Kan. Texas destroyed KU by 25 points! That's a bit more than a January home loss. I know they're both ranked; but, that's a stunning and colossal failure in Allen Field House. Cancelation of the tournament last season stings deeper today. Welp. There is good news when Tennessee hosts Kansas. At least we both can't lose that day, lol!

Middle Tennessee is ever so slightly more active than West Tenn. East Tennessee was historically less active than the other two; however, that may change (is changing) with recent trends and shifts. My conclusion on Mid vs West is based on historical tornado tracks, not really a map of the Alley. Those tracks have been floating around Twitter and other sites. North Alabama max bleeds north into Middle Tenn.

Yes I vaguely recall the 2010 system was there Day 5-6, got lost a little bit Day 3-4, then came back by Day 2. Not atypical. This year for KCHA was always a whiff from Day 10 in. At least the fcst was accurate, even if sad, lol!

Need to get rid of that bowling ball low sitting in the Gulf of Alaska. It's just killing cold air supply and surface temp forecasts. Temps are barely below zero on the North Slope and the Yukon. Mongolia took all the cold air, lol! Otherwise BN heights in the Southeast is good. At least the storm track is proper. HSV and CHA might be better served with a Miller B given the lack of cold air supply. If Miller A I'm sorry I'll just have to wish for severe in the Deep South.

On one hand that is so Soviet. Just shut out emotions to be content and warm. On the other hand we're all kind of the same. Who likes to be cold? Garth Brooks has the tie-breaker with, the Dance. Better to feel both than neither.

I'll leave Thursday to the SPC. I agree with them; and, it's way to far for me to even consider chasing. Overnight LA/MS is kind of a punt too. Friday forecast has shifted south and east. Looks like a cool wedge coming in from the Carolinas into North Georgia. At the same time, low level flow may hold up more than previous forecast out to the SC Coast and for southeast NC. Atlanta is on the north edge of Marginal, with very conditional instability. Best chance of instability is South Carolina below Columbia. That's way out of my range for a daytrip. Macon to Albany, Georgia is another possibility with some breaks in the trees. However construction on I-75 south of ATL makes it a hard pass. That construction is sooo annoying! New Year's looks like watching football and during commercial breaks, severe wx from my nice warm living room.

Dixie Holiday Special is coming up. I like the Day 3. System has really slowed down. It'll be a Louisiana and South Mississippi problem, perhaps overnight. Storms should get going in eastern Texas and enter southern Alabama by the end of the period. LLJ will increase with time Thursday night. Oh goodie for LA/MS. Friday Day 4 looks to refire or be ongoing in Georgia and the Carolinas. Could start in the southern Appalachians, before ramping up in the afternoon and lower elevations east. Piedmont gets involved. SPC rightly ends the action before the Low Country as upper dynamics will be ejecting away. However the LLJ hangs in through Friday afternoon. None of this is chase worthy imo. However it'll make nice armchair entertainment during commercial breaks of football games.

I'm starting to like the Martin Luther King Day period for a colder pattern. Well I'm wishing. Can't say I like it as a forecast yet. As Anthony notes North America has to hurry up and wait on the Strato warming and -AO. Right now Western Europe and China are cold due to blocking in the North Atlantic and also northeast of Scandinavia. Central Asia ridging helped promote that record surface high in Mongolia (Hoth, lol). Read a paper about the effects of SSW. Old news is that it can cause cold in eastern North America, Western Europe, and eastern Asia (one, two or three of the areas). However the North America failures are not new. Actually we have little correlation with the time of max Strato warming or -AO. Western Europe has the most correlation with blocking cold. East Asia is second, and lower. North America is barely significant at all. This is AO not NAO. Same study shows Alaska block has the higher correlation for North America. Not a surprise! We've been talking about that here. Though even I was a little intrigued just how poorly AO and even SSW correlate for North America - just not a big tool. The required Alaska ridge can happen 30 days following the North Pole true -AO. There is your North America lag. So North America lag might not be truly accurate. We need to wait for the AK ridge, whether by retrograde, Pacific forcing, or some other method.

I'm not sure about the Carolina side, but southeast Tennessee was somewhat locked in a couple days prior. That's pretty good for Southeast modeling. From 2-4 inches was forecast around here and verified Christmas morning - mostly during daylight hours. Points north and east got more, and like the Carolinas the forecast probably ebbed and flowed. I think I recall that deal. Chatty got blanked in 2020 while northeast Tennessee got the second white Christmas in 10 years. Probably be another 30 around here. From 1969 to 2010 was 41 years.

When the winter wx forecast goes to the dogs, there's only one question to ask. Though I acknowledge winter hope on Sunday in places.. When's the next chance of severe weather? Thursday night looks interesting, especially in the Deep South. The slower more amped, and perhaps cutting solutions, from the EC and NAM could get southeast Tennessee in play overnight. What a way to ring in the New Year! From the bathroom or closet? Regrettably it does not look like a chase scenario attm. First of all it's the shortest daylight of the year. Second, it looks to get going after dark. The just right 700 mb temp may check early junk; however, it also delays the main show. That'd be much more interesting in March or April. Third, it's relying on a developing LLJ a bit east of the best upper dynamics. Finally, the usual, it's Dixie Alley. All that said the wind fields are impressive. At first glance the 500-200 mb charts look a little meridional. However 850/925 is properly backed relative to those. 700 mb is just right temps for this time of year, and correct vectors. Surface temps/dews look to be there, again because 700 mb Ts hold off an early rain-out. The heavy rain advertised comes with the main system later. Bottom line: Chattanooga, North Alabama and North Georgia could ring in the New Year with overnight fireworks. Why not?

That went to the dogs in a hurry. 3 of the last 4 times I've posed bullish hope the last couple seasons it's gone mild within 36 hours. Jinx is real. Maybe after Martin Luther King Day. Hopefully then it's not maybe Feb. Then maybe Valentines Day. Then maybe next year. Some past set-ups where Greenland blocking was in conflict with Pacific mild going into early January, Europe and Asia got more cold dumps than North America. When North America starts out fairly mild it's tough. We'll see though. Time will tell.

Nice timing! Strato Warming has apparently ingested into the just released ECMWF weekly charts. I approve that message! Greenland block remains stout for 3-4 weeks. Some ridging West Coast. North Pac trough is more Bering sea than Alaska, a bullish shift for here. Surface Deep South is blue. Tennessee Valley and Mid South is variable. However these next four weeks are the core of January. We take! I'll be off for a few days. Merry Christmas!