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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Big trade winds push in progress. Moderate La Nina is within striking range. Still feel like a good weak Nina. No borderline.
  2. nrgjeff
    I saw some 1965 hype, but didn't check snow. Severe wx that spring, lol! My guess is Memphis and Nashville will do OK this winter. Southeast Tenn will be blanked, or have an upper low surprise. All or nothing, lol!
  3. nrgjeff
    European monthly charts are classic La Nina, except a little better shot at cold Jan vs Dec. Verbatim that's great for a chance at snow. Jan > Dec. Feb-April annihilate Dixie Alley.
  4. nrgjeff
    It will eventually come through, but might be limping and weak. That kind of cold anomaly in the Plains will usually bleed southeast even this time of year. My biggest gripe is the awful evolution of the trough overall. Not only do we get robbed of a true cold front, no severe set-up in the Midwest. Could it be any worse? Actually I should not ask it's 2020, lol!
  5. nrgjeff
    The ever slowing cold front. What takes longer? 1. Breaking a SER 2. Waiting at the DMV 3. Getting covid test results No I have not been exposed or sick, but I just could not resist number 3.
  6. nrgjeff
    A boundary cooking all day makes my heart wish I'm there. Terrain? I'm used to it in East Tenn.
  7. nrgjeff
    Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there. HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh. Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming... Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort. Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn. High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.
  8. nrgjeff
    Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol! Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable. Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too. If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go! Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck!
  9. nrgjeff
    And the 06Z GFS and both Ensembles hang up like the ECMWF. Do you know what happened? Meteorologist (me) promised / jinxed football weather, lol! Actually trouble could have started all the way upstream in the Western Pacific. Typhoons going west instead of recurving. Korea is getting slammed. US trough goes Central instead of East. Naturally the ECMWF picked up on this 48 hours before the clumsy GFS. Please do not re-post the picture. Thanks!
  10. nrgjeff
    Memphis had some drama Wednesday eve. They tornado warned Arkansas just west of town. Good thing it did not pan out. Heading right to the most populated area. Saw a nice shelfie on Twitter or somewhere. Clarksville also had a suspect cell. Never warned and didn't go severe. Friend sought out the base from Austin Pea U. Not bad. So, PowellVolz we have another severe enthusiast? Jax is another one of us. Everybody join us. You do not know the power of the Dark Side!
  11. nrgjeff
    Tuesday was interesting. Wednesday (today) looks like another possible Marginal to Slight upgrade. Similarities include a surface boundary in the region include CAPE (absolutely ludicrous humidity) and a CV / vort max coming out of Arkansas. Difference is surface is all veered off today. GFS/NAM keep it so. Euro 06Z develops a meso-low on the Ky/Tenn border that'd light up! PS the HRRR is doing HRRR things. Maybe 16/17Z closer to game time it will be useful.
  12. nrgjeff
    And now the CFS came around to the Euro weeklies with 2-3 BN temps weeks. I do like a warm October for fall foliage. Hard to get in the mood if it's too cold. Cool nights are great of course. Warm afternoons just make the day! Then for winter, hopefully we get some snow and Southeast skiing.
  13. nrgjeff
    I have a good feeling we will have a fall this year. European weekly charts (like ensembles) are a little slower on the cooler air settling in later next week. However they keep early season football weather around longer than previous runs, and longer than the CFS does. Keep in mind October is typically warmer than normal in La Nina years but November is then cooler than normal. Correlations are weak. Just noting in case October is warm, it does not necessarily last. Second half of winter is a different story, but let's enjoy fall first.
  14. nrgjeff
    Models have reeled it into the 6-10 day period. Looks like a Real Cold Front (RCF) tm middle of next week. Get a little break over the weekend. Humidity may rebound ahead of the RCF early next week. Severe weather would be fine by me. Then football weather!
  15. nrgjeff
    The UAH SWIRLL sounding above hinted at action. Oh yeah, the Cullman AL area got action. Cullman, anyone surprised? I visited for my first time Friday. Cullman sits on a low plateau; but yes, it's elevated which helps inflow winds. HSV NWS surveyed a couple weak tornadoes near West Point and Eva, which is a track just northwest of Cullman. I followed that storm but did not see the tornadoes. Happy to report excellent other structure and a good chase. Heavily doctored photo looking west from Falkville, AL. I still do not discern a tornado, but it's a heck of a Dixie supercell. Believe the dark spot is looking sideways through a C-shaped heavy rain band. If it's a funnel one cannot confirm it's down. Pancakes just northeast of Cullman at Cornerstone (church) Revival Center. Pastor is really nice. We chatted about the storm of course. The storm was so good he forgot to ask me about Jesus! I told him the church is OK and any rotation will pass to the northwest. Little did I know a tornado was indeed in progress near Eva. Barber pole between Cullman and Arab, AL as I took AL Hwy 69 toward home. Reminds me of an old friend US-69 in Kansas.
  16. nrgjeff
    Yes another tornado reported near Oxford, Miss this morning. Had an MD before 7am Central, even though low watch probs. Still we're getting started early and often. 13Z SPC talking possible ENH upgrade for tornadoes. Paraphrase: Inland decay phase can be the more prolific tornado day. Wind fields spread out into better CAPE environment. Set up does remind me of the Harvey tornado I documented in northwest Alabama. Well it almost documented me, ha.Y'all it's Free for all Friday!
  17. nrgjeff
    European weekly charts are beautiful. Looks like we need to get through next week. I favor warmer ensemble clusters that slow down the front. Either way I'm in agreement with good times after Labor Day. End of ensembles shows AK ridging. Weeklies both show Midwest to Ohio Valley trough. We take!
  18. nrgjeff
    Right front will be the main show overnight. Arkansas has truly rain-wrapped tornado warnings in a shield of rain. Also think leading edge of the rain is going into higher CAPE in western Mississippi. Friday right front quad may remain so, but it's way up over Kentucky. When Laura gets more hybrid, could be sups straight east or even southeast with those convergence lines in more CAPE.
  19. nrgjeff
    Friday slight risk is justified. Laura will start to assume hybrid characteristics regardless of the depression designation. Appears the 500 mb winds will be veered compared to 850 mb, more turning than a pure tropical system. A 200 mb jet streak will be over North Georgia and southeast Tenn. However the best overall features appear northern Middle Tenn. Two convergence lines are shown on all guidance, CAMs and globals. One pushes out toward the I-65 by midday with another coming out of West Tenn mid afternoon. I think the back one will have more CAPE with which to work. Front one may run into an even farther east feature, morning rain East Tenn. Focusing on the back convergence line, it appears to intersect even more backed winds around Clarksville mid-afternoon. Calling that the hybrid quasi triple point, east-southeast of the surface low. Should be great convergence and excellent turning there. However CAPE will be greater, with still good turning, Nashville south. While this reads like a severe wx post, well it is, I will post in the Laura thread.
  20. nrgjeff
    Don't worry about that Euro chart. Use regular old surface wind progs. Believe it or not they are pretty good inland. I figure that Euro peak wind product is for individual strong/severe storm cells, based on CAPE and column water content. It's definitely not the circulation. Thanks @Carvers Gap for the keenly props, but I probably got lucky. I'm definitely thankful July was peak summer vs August. Hello @mempho I certainly have inland Laura impacts in mind. I'm a sucker for Dixie Alley when tropical depressions bring low level shear well inland. More on that in the severe thread if I get time to write anything coherent. East moving remnant low will promote storm cell motion slightly right of the mean low level flow Friday. hmmm
  21. nrgjeff
    Iceman: Tired of summer. Switching to fall. I do like the last few posts on the summer thread. EPS is indeed pushing a cool front through the Midwest to the Mid South. Can we get it all the way through? Probably so in some form. Looks a little hot and humid until we can get these tropical cyclones pushed out. Laura going west is going to behave like a warm front, especially in August. Midwest system next week may not quite be enough to scour out the airmass. However the 11-15 day period looks a little more encouraging. European weeklies are quite friendly to a moderating temperatures forecast. Looks at or below normal through about week 3. Gets us past mid-September before any aboves. By then slight above is fine, esp if not too humid. Except for late August heat, I will try to remember to post mainly in the Fall thread. Cue up some Ce Ce Peniston. Finally!
  22. nrgjeff
    Three years ago today we were eclipsing! No social distance. Gathered in big happy groups. Got blown away by Nature. Happy reflections! At least this year we had Comet Neowise, a minor but nice concession. Have a good weekend!
  23. nrgjeff
    European weeklies want to end summer right on time. Looks like seasonably hot the end of August, in line with both Ensembles. Then the ECMWF weeklies follow the CFS at or below normal temps the first half of Sept. Such an evolution is reasonable with current MJO and ABNA expectations. Also active tropics and precip. To celebrate I should probably post this in the fall thread, but I also talk about tropics. Maybe next time!
  24. nrgjeff
    Yes the end of the 11-15 day (both ensembles) and the 16-20 day (ECMWF weeklies) hint at some heat end of August beginning of September. See if it can reel into the 6-10 day, but I'm OK if it doesn't, haha! CFS does not echo the heat. After Labor Day September looks fairly benign on the heat front. It's supposed to be so, but we know how the last few years went. Tropical cyclones may impact temps either way too. Speaking of that, I cannot promise benign in the tropics. Starting in late August this MJO pulse might light up the Atlantic into early Sept. Gulf storms tend to behave like warm fronts for the South (outside of rain). East Coast storms can bring some heat relief back side, esp in Sept.
  25. nrgjeff
    Apparently the FF guidance is low there. WPC has flood risk. On the bright side somewhat fall-ish weather is on deck after the front. Watching the Perseid(s) the other night (only one, lol) I noticed Orion coming up in the East. Orion is of course a staple of the winter evening sky. He's like, hold on, fall and winter are on the way! Hopefully more snow will grace the Mountains this winter, though it'll be a chore with La Nina. Ski areas need our support more than ever. I'd say if not bar hopping at night, it's safe to ski/ride bundled up with face coverings anyway. Get take-out to support restaurants. Never too early to think ahead, lol!
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