nrgjeff

SPC is right to get a 5% down to North Texas on the update. Little triple point will be there late afternoon; but, the cold front will overtake it by evening. I like the Texas (or southern OK) triple point for a virtual target. Then there's Iowa, the source of so many chaser inside jokes!

My heat pump came on a few times last night. Cloudy cool day then clear cold night. Holston I was counting on you bringing me a Rockies trough in May, lol! I'm guessing Kansas will be open by late May, if Tennessee is opening now. Texas is on the Tennessee time table. I don't care about Oklahoma and the chaser crowds, lol!

Always Cookville. Photos on Twitter look grungy though. Jives with lots of rain wrap around on radar up there. Documented this foot / beaver tail around Ooltewah, before following toward Etowah. No touchdown, I saw the base at times driving. This is where I could safely pull over. It was a low-top mini-sup with tilted updraft. No true wall cloud, but it's gorgeous.

Nice photos @Jax! LP-ish with structure in the Southeast. Well it's 2020 and anything can happen!

That might be helpful for my Kansas concerns in May. Looking even farther ahead, though quite imprecise, another wave of convection is flaring in the western IO. It's behind the DL wave Jax writes about. I'm hoping my second wave is crossing Indonesia (MJO maritime sub-cont) about late May. By then I feel the SER will be attempting a return, probably more so than NWP shows out weeks 3-5. If Holston is camping out West, Rockies trough LOL. Could be the ol' chaser rose colored goggles, but it's all on the satellites covering the Indian Ocean. Cheers!

I agree with MRX above. Was that on NWS MRX page at one point? I saw it elsewhere. Meanwhile a triple point has pushed from Miss/Bama into southern Middle Tenn. Should continue over the Upper Plateau into northeast Tenn. Don't let the chart scare though. Still agree with only MRGL/SLIGHT risk thanks to pitiful dewpoints.

SPC Day 2 even mentions the Cumberland Plateau. Elevation puts it closer to the LLJ. So, I guess the Cumberland Trail is open?

Marginal. Saturday. That's a go! Of course it's garbage weak moisture return and all. However a surface trough and backed winds tracks through (during the daytime - what a novel idea!) Tenn. Could be low top, low probability, but decent visibility. So much for the latter on Thursday, lol! If the 12Z guidance is the same to more robust, Saturday might be a chase day. Um, urr, I mean, go to one of those State Parks that are opening.

Feels like Kansas. Oh wait, here the tornadoes are at night though. Thursday morning was exceptionally windy in KCHA.

That's some tough chasing terrain near the Red River (both sides) 2-4 counties east of I-35. Boundary could lift into OK, but that's the tougher terrain. Texas side offers higher dewpoint fuel and more ag clearings, though again not great. Trouble could be capping in TX but depends on surface heating. Be mindful of Red River crossings. Cell motion might be to the ESE, vs the usual NE. Don't get trapped on the river! If I still lived in DFW I'd be Paris bound this afternoon. Instead I just sit in Dixie and wait to get hit at night. Still salty from Easter.

Re: the Hanks video, I'm amazed the power stayed on. Traffic light appears to be working right after the tornado crossed the power lines; however, we only get a second or two of that before he moves. Later in the video power lines elsewhere are down. He is too close though. Tornadoes can and do rapidly/instantly widen. Bad move there. Moving on, today has a conditional Slight for parts of the Valley and Plateau. Is today Thursday? Anyway new development could be low top, low probability, but high visibility. And in the daytime - what a novel idea around here! Roger Edwards says it best. Here's our section of the 13Z Day 1. Severe potential still exists with a possible second episode, along/ahead of the cold front from the Tennesseee Valley region southward, but is very conditional. Substantial stabilization to near the Gulf Coast is associated with the leading MCS. Only a narrow back door of at least marginally favorable theta-e advection and related airmass recovery will exist to the west, which comes with offsetting influences: 1. Southwesterly near-surface flow ahead of the front will yield the best trajectories for theta-e recovery around the morning MCS outflow, but also contribute to relatively reduced low-level shear and convergence. 2. Any southerly to southeasterly trajectories from the MCS passage will be more convectively stabilized. (no dice there - me) Still, a narrow plume of favorable buoyancy may develop -- with MLCAPE ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg in the north where deep lift, cooling aloft and shear will be greatest, to around 2000 J/kg in the south under weaker ascent and shear. With uncertain coverage, duration and intensity of convection in this regime, the risk level is not as great as farther southeast, and should diminish markedly after dark.

3:35 pm Central cell getting healthy west of CLL. Hopefully keeps south of town CLL/Bryan. Too bad I think it's the wrong side for viewing from the A&M Lab. Nacogdoches cell is a beast. East Texas acting like Dixie.

I like the raised probs for the Carolinas (Day 2 pm). Bama is so conditional and borderline veering off, but GA/SC parts of NC have the backed LLJ. That said I don't see 15% in the cards. CAMs have trended to MCS and/or linear. That does not mean let down one's guard. 10% hatched can include some beasts.

Privileged people die! I'm just messin' with you. Had the same discussion in Chattanooga. Area hit is able to WFH for covid, has insurance for the tor, and otherwise can recover. However, a 4-year old boy succumbed to his injuries in the hospital. As a parent who protects my family, I cannot imagine what the dad is feeling. So, I'm still salty about privilege. Back to weather. I would chase straight north of DFW on I-35, perhaps into southern Oklahoma, but not far. Keep near Red River crossing until final cell selection. Wind might be more backed in southern OK; but, be mindful of that surging boundary from the north.

Yes things will get going east of I-35. West of there is veering off and/or getting undercut by the surging OK boundary. Watch probs 60/40 are actually pretty robust for that box size. Definitely looks like towers are working on a cap. Dews are there; but, will need to heat some more along I-35. Keep in mind a bust is not a bad thing considering 8M ppl in the Metroplex. Days like today I miss living in DFW.

Here we go initiation well west of what was shown yesterday - not really a surprise. Winds will be backed east of the surface low. What it lacks in CAPE it has in SRH. For chasers the two targets are a mess. Everyone and their eighth cousin will take a look from OKC into southwest OK. DFW is a mess even when Google maps is green. I want to say chase northwest Texas, and hope that OK chasers can't find a crossing, lol. However that goes both ways too. If I still lived in DFW I'd be rolling up 287.

I will sleep well tonight. Just checked the CAMs, and more important stability forecasts. Then Thursday looks veered off with lots of storms well to our southeast. Honestly I was checking radar and surface too much Sun. Apr. 19 - residual nerves after the April 12 tornado. Tonight/Thursday - like 4/19 - we're not even in Slight. Since I both agree with and trust the SPC forecast, I probably won't check as much this second time after. It's a process - even for a Met. Good thing for all of us on this forum, we have greater than average knowledge of this stuff. I'm not sure if knowledge is power, but it helps. Remember as the great James Spann says, tornadoes are rare.

I'm skeptical of the sig tor index this setup. Winds shear will be high, but the greatest turning will be GA/SC. Speed shear will be over Bama, but not as much turning. CAPE/LI will be high over Bama with clearing; but, the front will be racing into GA/SC. Believe the STI is over-blown, after drilling down the charts. If the short-wave was 12 hours slower, it'd be a bear of a day. Thankfully probably not for our Tennessee Valley. I am honestly worried about Georgia and South Carolina. This human puts the bullseye about a state east of the STP, and with a lower number.

As of 3pm Central the cell south of Houston was getting scraggly on radar. Good it missed/weakened around Angelton. Lake Jackson is south, but close, and Freeport is safely south. Praying it does not cycle and get its act together going into Galveston. South wind not particularly strong could help mitigate another tightening.

Probably a trough West, endless SER. Note I'm still negative and jaded about weather right now. In all seriousness, that could be a screaming +NAO and jet stream. Winters are a total loss, even in a Solar Min.

Just as well the area is off-limits. Friends and neighbors did a lot of volunteer work and clean-up last week. Now it's shifted to insurance and contractors. I helped on the edge, never really got into the core Gray/Jenkins damage. Saturday I think EPB was re-hanging some lines; so, it was closed. I'm angry and heart-broken to learn of looting. Stick to the positive. Help where we can. Though yard debris clean-up is wrapping up, still many weeks where volunteers and restoration crews can use food and water. YMCA is donation HQ. One can donate $ online if not comfortable going out in covid-19 times. Ditto for the Chattanooga Food Bank and countless go-fund-me pages. We. Are. Chattanooga! Strong!

The only time they are worse than in winter.

My understanding is some of that area has not been surveyed by NWS. I don't believe in guess the EF rating games, but I'd say the preliminary survey is pending further review. Of course we are safe. Got power and Internet back probably about the same time as DWagner - when the EB Rd line was rebuilt and restored. However several friends lost homes. Many friends had minor damage. Thankfully nobody hurt. However I'm heartbroken for the family of the 4-year old who succumbed to injuries in the hospital. Notes: 11:03 pm severe t-storm warning. Hoping rotation dies down, but it increases. 11:17 pm tornado warning radar indicated for here. Take shelter with helmets. Wind is loud behind weather radio walkie-talkie. Radar does not update, no Internet. Power goes out, likely as tornado crosses EB road 1.25 mils to my west. 11:24? Tornado Emergency Collegedale and Ootelwah (northeast of me) as the CC drops to bright blue on radar (I saw later). Winds actually diminish here. Two days later: Lovely orange (in fall) tree is decimated over East Brainerd EB Rd. Bones is a pile of twisted rubble, but not blown away – though a menu is in Cleveland. Several power trucks are working the EB line - rebuilding poles and putting up lines. Episcopal Crucifix stands proudly and defiantly! Small church on Shallowford Rd roof pancaked on downstairs. Shalloword trees are stripped bare. Power lines droop on Banks Rd. Help friends clean-up, document small and large debris. Some 2x4s in the next block. Their block is mainly small (size of hand) pieces of roof, insulation stuck to sides, and some glass in the yard. Screwdriver is from next block neighbor’s tool box. Truck dumps big debris down the street. Next ridge (area closed) is damaged houses as far as the eye can see. Jenkins Rd feels like a prairie country road where police block it; however, I forgot it was a tree-lined residential area. That's all I have for now. Thankfully Sunday looks Deep South. I'm not particularly interested anyway.

Moderate rain moving into Chattanooga. Looking forward to a relaxing stable evening... Just kidding! WF is trying to lift north, but I just can't get excited with my heat pump on while I'm wearing full sweats. Real concerns remain from Mississippi through Alabama and perhaps Georgia though. Warm sector gonna be lit, though very sloppy.

Definitely still keep an eye on it have your weather radio set up. I'm just naturally a cynic. Also Middle Tennessee I don't feel is in as good of shape as here in East Tenn.