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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Super Tuesday severe setup is now hampered by sharp divergence between the progressive GFS and slower Euro. Truth may end up in between, but mostly toward the Euro. As for north/south tracking, EC Op surface low is buried in the Deep South. However the vast majority of its EPS (Ensemble) members have surface lows farther north including the Midwest. That's more severe and more heavy rain here. No wind fields analysis since the whole thing is a cluster now. One can imagine the north members have better wind fields. South members are cool rain. Heck now we can't even pick out the day or the place. Tuesday Wednesday or Thursday anywhere from the Delta to the Carolinas; but, probably only one day where everything comes together for severe in just a couple states. Flooding rain is a different story in a different thread.
  2. nrgjeff
    Last time the Euro won this battle. It's less flooding and less severe. This case I'll punt my love of severe and pray for lower QPF.
  3. nrgjeff
    Oh the storm from The Day After Tomorrow sinking south - like the stock market! In sports, the WWE chair rematch is this weekend! KU at K-State is on CBS Saturday!
  4. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga started as snow, but changed to rain. Fitting as the DOW drops another 1,000 I'm looking forward to when the DOW = Doppler on Wheels. If it's not going to stick, severe?
  5. nrgjeff
    ECMWF backed off severe a touch, but seems to have shifted the highest QPF into the heart of TVA. Only good news is that high QPF isn't as high as shown 12 hours ago elsewhere. On the severe side, several EPS ensemble members are more like the previous runs. Low press into the Midwest and severe here. EC Op is frontal overrunning.
  6. nrgjeff
    The last two systems illustrate the importance of cold air and surface, I know kind of duh, but these last two systems really accentuate it. I'll add cold air in place vs JIT junk. I observed first flakes in Downtown Chattanooga around 8:30 Eastern, but not doing much attm. Actually I observed driver flakes on the way in too, but that's another topic...
  7. nrgjeff
    Upper Plateau and points north of I-40 look good for the two waves coming through from Friday morning through Friday night. Diurnal timing will play a role with accumulation. Plateau should have no problem accumulating, temps below freezing many hours. Valley I-40 north will battle temps more. Knoxvegas maybe. Morristown I'd think a little. TRI good. Nashvegas is the real craps table. I'm afraid Huntsville and Chattanooga are relegated to the cheering section again. Maybe snow showers, but I really doubt stick. My head is back to default fade KCHA. My heart is still stuck on 8 Feb.
  8. nrgjeff
    Euro weeklies are worse than the stock market action this week.
  9. nrgjeff
    Euro weeklies just piled on for a bunch of rain next week. Just awful.
  10. nrgjeff
    Euro retains at least 30 degrees of turning from 850 to 500 mb, and some runs it's close to 45 degrees. Speed shear is pretty much a given. If that directional shear verifies (tendency to get more uni-directional toward the day) and holds it could be a significant severe weather episode. Probably mostly Deep South though, not really our region. At least south of I-40. I was supposed to give up storm chasing for Lent, to keep me out of early season junk. Hmm, what else?
  11. nrgjeff
    Gorgeous in Maggie Valley! @Maggie Ace What's the chance Catalooche opens the Meadows? Friday night should over achieve, I hope.
  12. nrgjeff
    Don't underestimate the power of the Force, convective NWFS. Good luck! Oh MRX probably has more real estate and population up high; hence, the warnings. Friday night may do better than progged too. They keep drying out, but I bet the ski areas get more.
  13. nrgjeff
    He's wrong. Looking for attention. I don't see anyone by that name with credentials on Linked In. Currently the Milankovitch Cycles approximately cancel out each other. That's why Climate Science can more reliably zero in on the solar cycle and Carbon. The divergence is startling. Sun is sleeping; temps and CO2 continue up; and previously, they had always all 3 been in lock step.
  14. nrgjeff
    Tuesday 12Z Euro buys in for Day 8 Mid South. Winds turn enough with height, a new development, and dews are there. However it could fall apart the next 7 days. Either way I expect an active March. Trough in the west and Rockies.
  15. nrgjeff
    Above agrees with consensus on the Solar Forecast too. But if the Contrarian verifies, we already had our minimum. Head over to the Climate Change threads.
  16. nrgjeff
    It's not a weapon with only 2% fatal (greater than flu less than SARs). However it could be a virus animal experiment gone awry. China shut down. Less pollution. Something about the MJO. More cold in the Southeast US. China reopens. SER in March. Well, I doubt that, but we need to get back on topic. Thursday snow showers are looking a little better for the Plateau and Mountains; but, I think Friday night is more interesting. Friday night and Saturday still looks on-track north of I-40, Plateau, Mountains and probably TRI. Might even be Knoxvegas. We'll go snow dome BNA/CHA.
  17. nrgjeff
    Saturday Feb. 29 has echos of Sat. Feb. 8 for the Valley. Cold air in place instead of that JIT crap for starters. Models correctly default to no snow Valley climo. We'll have to watch it as it evolves. Full and partial thicknesses are buried. 850/700 mb charts have neutral to slight WAA while remaining cold. Little far out to look at soundings but what the heck? Deep moist layer reaches forecast DGZ. Just need some isentropic lift that zone, likely verbatim but Day 6. We'll see!
  18. nrgjeff
    AMS paper from U. Maryland has a contrarian view we may be heading into a major / active solar cycle. Hypothesis is solar storms dragged out cycle 23. This cycle 24 has been a little short in time duration and solar storms. Getting ready for 25 to roar out of the gates strong. Endless warm winters! Again it's just a contrarian hypothesis. But it would mesh with 2012 going into a warm 2012-13 winter. If anything can go wrong...
  19. nrgjeff
    Cold core surprise is possible in the Mid South still. Lows are stacked, which is helpful for that type of deal. However cold core is not my wheelhouse. Wake me up in April. Hopefully after Kansas wins the NCAA Tourney in ATL.
  20. nrgjeff
    Looks like the NAM and ECMWF did the best. They had sticking snow pretty well. They correctly blanked Chattanooga proper, but said yes up on Signal. However the Euro was too warm where snow stuck best. NAM was too cold in places. HRRR nailed the stubborn 40 degrees in KCHA. GFS was a debacle. HRRR > GFS like Warren beating down Bloomberg in the debate. I know we're not supposed to be political, but that was WWE folding chair regardless of your politics. I'm not saying I agree with any side, but that's what happens to Chattanooga every time cold air is not totally in place first. Time for the KU meme again. Save Chattanooga from the 40 degree chair!
  21. nrgjeff
    Actually phases 4-5-6 are still warm in March. I call those Indonesia or Maritime Continent. If I say West Pac I'm thinking 7-8-1 out by the Dateline. Sorry for the confusion. Maybe I'm not using convention. Speaking of conflicting signals, the ECMWF did warm up the 12-20 day forecast overnight. Oh yeah Indonesia thunderstorms flared up. Diurnal or a true KW? I hope only diurnal. Would explain all the diurnal model zig zags too. West Pac out by the Dateline is still going. Winter lovers can pray it dominates. Either way looks good next week. I-40 north of course! First storm may cut. Second comes in behind. That ought to be good along I-40 and points north. It gets TRI on both the front side and back side. That sequence won't work for KCHA; however, KTYS would have hope back side. KBNA is total crap shoot. Honestly BNA has been less lucky than CHA, which is wow!
  22. nrgjeff
    Yeah the JIT cold air is usually not in time. Kind of like moisture with severe. Anyway the HP was building in from the northwest. Better if it had been established north or northeast. That's playing havoc over in NC lower elevations too, trying to get that surface ridge to set up. That's a wrap for me. Happy for those who got nice snow. Chattanooga is reflecting on Feb. 8, lol.
  23. nrgjeff
    ECMWF weeklies concur with the above posts. 12Z EPS just out is not quite as cold 11-15 day with less +PNA; and, the weeklies are based on 00Z with quality +PNA. However they are both active and not warm. Tropical drivers include the IO calming down while the West Pac is convecting. See how long it can continue.
  24. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Yes those charts are not bad for winter. I was whining about spring severe. That'd work next winter for me.
  25. nrgjeff
    Euro is back on board. I'll stick with I-40 north, Plateau and Mountains. Should be TRI if that holds. Cold drizzle KCHA, lol!
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