nrgjeff

I will try the correct thread now: ECMWF and its Ensembles are similar to GFS charts for this system. Happy skiing @raindancewx. Southern NM ranges not quite as much snow. However one can infer similar snow levels and snow in the same places and/or mountain ranges. Ensembles get the UT/CO mountains again late next week. That one is not as south. Looks like energy sneaks in as Pac NW ridging breaks up a bit and/or lifts into Canada. GFS is less bullish; however, it's been missing West troughs in the 11-15 day.

Yes, and we storm chasers are excited. OK, cautiously optimistic.. Another trend is our friend deal: Central Plains had a good snow year. If the active storm track continues, lifting north with the jet stream, it puts the Central Plains in severe wx later in spring. KC had the first good snow winter in years. Will Wichita and others have an exciting spring? Note I've lived in both KC and ICT so I mention them by name. Applies to the whole area. Rock Chalk Jayhawk!

Good contrast, for Dixie.. Yes that's definitely TOG. Apparently I should have gone storm chasing, lol.

Congratulations Jax and your son! Make Gymnastics great again, lol. So what y'all are saying is Tennessee and Auburn are like Kansas. Depends on the day. We all blow chunks on the road. Play excellent at home. Neutral I think is not bad. Home crowd is missed; but, freshmen are not subject to a hostile crowd either. The intense energetic team just has to show up. Kentucky must be frustrated with the results, missing a share of the regular season title. Figure UK would rather their rival UT win, to get a share of the SEC title. As usual I look for Kentucky to make a deep run in the Tournament. From the main spring thread, regarding cold head fakes the past winter. Yeah it's like winning a great game at home, only to get crushed on the road!

I agree with Carvers (last two posts now) that March may close out cooler than normal. However it'll be close after all the sloshing around. Then I look for April warmer than normal. Euro weeklies last Thursday keep it cool a few weeks; however, they have been unreliable for months. Latest Euro ensembles end milder, and Euro monthly is mild April; perhaps weeklies will follow warmer tonight. CFS warms up April; it's been able to sniff out the shorter cold periods. CrankyWx is probably right about the Pac jet. A look at the Japanese satellite shows convection already blowing up again in the Indian Ocean, bound for the warm maritime continent. All that junk in colder phases at/east of the Dateline should have a fleeting impact only. Oh yeah the door is about shut on SSW. Upper strato is trying to warm. However the lower layers still have a positive wind. We're good. Start spring baby!

Now a little good news, hopefully... Columbus AFB, Miss. and adjacent radars show some bright banding this morning (Monday). Dual polarization confirms it's mixed precip aloft. Radar estimated (and human estimated) rainfall from the bright reflectivity is probably high. I figure totals are down around a quarter inch. Monday rain was always forecast light. Midweek system even improved a bit. Looks like it'll be moving just enough to keep totals 1-2 inches. Few days ago looked like another 3-4 in. This pattern anything can happen, but think positive.

Noon central time: Differential heating boundary is evident in North Mississippi, northwest Alabama, noted by 70s temps and 60s dews south and thicker clouds north. This is south of the synoptic WF which is in Kentucky. The Miss/Bama boundary should lift to the Tennessee border, perhaps into West Tenn. As the Arkansas front/dry line approaches, it should create intersecting boundaries, Low level convergence is forecast to increase in MS/AL/TN when the Arkansas front approaches. Conceptual and some numerical models have slightly higher storm relative helicity near the lifting MS/AL boundary. SPC and some CAMs have started to highlight this more southern boundary intersection. Compared to the Kentucky triple point, storms should move slower in the Mid South, esp down in Mississippi. Upper winds are strong both areas, but not quite as nuts strong South. Storms are a mess in the Delta right now. We'll see if the line breaks up a bit into Mississippi and Alabama later this afternoon. We can do without human impacts either way.

Saturday March 9, 11:30 central time: Differential heating boundary is evident in North Mississippi, noted by 70s temps south and thicker clouds north. This is south of the synoptic WF which is in Kentucky. The Miss boundary should lift to the Tennessee border, perhaps into West Tenn. As the Arkansas front/dry line approaches, it should create intersecting boundaries, Low level convergence is forecast to increase in MS/TN when the Arkansas front approaches. Conceptual and some numerical models have slightly higher storm relative helicity near the lifting MS/TN boundary. SPC and some CAMs have started to highlight this more southern boundary intersection. Compared to the Kentucky triple point, storms should move slower in the Mid South, esp down in Mississippi. Upper winds are strong both areas, but not quite as much South. Storms are a mess in the Delta right now. We'll see if the line breaks up a bit into Mississippi later this afternoon. We can do without human impacts either way. Perhaps the strongest upper dynamics will outrun surface features, but still plenty of winds aloft into evening.

Kansas basketball this season has been like winter in Dixie. Hopes were high early, and then, well you know.

1. I knew Tennessee would win at home, but I was surprised by the decisive fashion. High energy defense is so important to disrupt opponents. 3 shooting is a tough spot at times. Especially against the zone UT needs to be patient and penetrate. Yup, wear 'em down. At any rate a 1 seed would be justified IMHO. Right match-ups, with intense disruptive D, and UT is Final Four. Wrong match-up, well that's why they call it March Madness. Rooting for the Vols. 2. Kansas is probably looking at a 2-3 seed. They are talking 4-seed but I hope it turns out better, with or without the Big 12 Reg. Season Championship. Always the tournament in KC. Loss of Azubuike is significant, along with other hurdles, but KU keeps fighting. Not being a 1 seed might ease pressure, but again it's about match-ups. ADDITION: Kentucky should make the Final Four. Young teams gel late, and they are playing well. (At UT was home team revenge.) Cal usually has them ready for tournament time, regardless of seed. I still remember Cal was complaining about a seeding, and at the same time giving much respect to Wichita St. Nice! 3. True studies show false alarms do not contribute to warning complacency. Any studies on social media exhaustion though? Weather is so over-hyped. Everyone posts clown maps and tornadoes like the Day 7 model is money. People also need to know the difference between a watch and warning. Watch the weather but go about normal business. Warning = act now! On the flip side, social media can be a positive to confirm personal danger. 4. The thought of waiting for the first fall cold front disgusts me. I love summer, but not endless hot humid madness (with July lows) until October. Here's to a comfortable spring!

Sunday tornadoes were an example of intersecting boundaries again. While the synoptic WF made it into the Carolinas, the former coastal front became another warm front in South Georgia. Coldest air hanged back in Tennessee, even as the cold front had made it to eastern Alabama. Hence, arctic air did not surge into the risk area. Alabama cold front acted more like a pre-frontal trough, with the coldest air back in Tenn. Georgia warm front intersected Bama trough in Lee County. Damaging tornadoes continued east from there along the WF. Other tornadoes were in the free warm sector. SPC did a good job going hatched in spite for CAMs slop/lines. Of course our thoughts and prayers are with the victims. Next chance of Dixie Alley severe is back in our region, but Day 6 nobody needs to worry yet. If moisture returns (currently questionable after arctic front) the Mid South should see a potent short-wave on Saturday. Main storm system ejects north. Southern energy is progged however, including gradual turning with height. (remember just day 6 models) Later next week, out around Day 9, is another possible day. A little more moisture may be available. First system would start that process, if its front does not get to the Gulf Coast. Both of these could be nothing though. Just things to watch in March.

SPC did a good job forecasting discrete cells despite CAMs reluctance to do so. That coastal warm from lifting north is becoming a focus out east of the cold front, also noted on previous page this thread. Could be an ugly day the Georgia tornado watch area. Surface winds are only slightly veered; and, they are actually backed right along that WF boundary. Any cell that can latch to the boundary could become a long track supercell. Low level jet is also backed enough out in Georgia, away from the 700 mb trough in Alabama. Rest of the upper levels, stout from 700 mb up, of course add to the shear.

Well at SPC Broyles goes ENH for Sunday southeast Alabama into parts of southwest Georgia, including 10% hatched tornado. It's aggressive but some CAMs have broken cells. I'm not too interested. Terrain is mostly poor except south side of ENH. The 700 mb level offers wind direction challenges, except farther ahead of the trough. I suppose best cells would be ahead of the main line. Positive tilt just does not give me that feeling. Though 925 mb may be less veered ahead of the line. We'll see. Probably should post in the Southeast Region but I have not been in here for 3-4 days. Happy weekend!

Hells bells. I'm siting in Chattanooga wishing I'd rolled out to Florence, AL. MCS coming out of Arkansas may be messy. However Mississippi and northwest Bama are destabilizing along and south of an outflow boundary OFB. I now believe this OFB will be a focus for enhanced low level shear when storms reach it. Even more bullish, descrete cells in the free warm sector (Mississippi) heading into the said OFB would likely ramp up upon arrival. Not sure for how long, because it's stable on the other side. Still, it is a focus area. Quasi dry line coming from central Arkansas may still refire behind the MCS. However I'm not a fan of right on the DL if a pre-frontal trough is available and looks promising. Appears the latter may be on the Mississippi River as I type Noon Central Time. If I had departed on time I might target intersection of this pre-frontal trough and outflow boundary 2nd paragraph. Oh well, plenty of college hoops on today, lol!

00Z CAMs (convective allowing models) have a couple different solutions. NAM high-res focuses on the quasi dry line coming out of Arkansas. ARW version of the WRF has storms going up on a pre-frontal trough a little farther east, starting in West Tennessee and Mississippi. HRRR wants to light up both. Agree that seems a little too aggressive. Adding to low-level shear should be a morning rain induced boundary lifting north from Alabama into Middle Tennessee. Should be more stable north and east of it. The quasi dry line storms might be a little forced, perhaps a broken line, but with a few rotating. Deep level shear is impressive. I call it a quasi dry line because colder air lags behind with a separate wind shift. If the pre-frontal trough becomes dominant, the storms could be more beefy and discrete, but perhaps sloppy. Low level shear is even a little better there. However storms would run into more stable air sooner. Again I really don't think both will go this set-up. Happened before in Dixie, and the Plains for that matter. However Saturday the instability axis may not be wide enough to get both going. Have to wait until morning to decide which one, or even nowcast it later.

Friday Excessive Rainfall Outlook is upgraded to High for parts of North Alabama, southern Middle Tennessee, northeast Mississippi and other adjacent areas of Tenn.

Saturday severe risk has held up with data today. Just a look at the surface chart and visible satellite shows the Gulf air boundary is onshore and moving north. It will stall in the Deep South Friday as heavy rain pounds the Tennessee Valley. Then it is forecast to lift north Saturday, but probably become a little diffuse as the synoptic warm front lifts to the Ohio Valley. A couple days ago, I saw some veer-back-veer VBV on upper air forecasts around 700 mb. Most of the VBV is gone now. Forecast hodographs have that big but gentle curve up through 200 mb. Believe the presence of a more defined southern short-wave has created the more textbook upper air charts. Check of forecast helicity index confirms the drill down (or up) through the forecast charts. Instability remains a question. Severe weather really does not. This forced set-up will at least have a lot of straight line winds. Saturday morning MCS is generally forecast to lift northeast. However it could continue straight east and contaminate the warm sector. MCS lifting out and leaving behind an outflow boundary would be more favorable for tornadoes, iff enough breaks of sun can destabilize things. Looks like a good one to track from home. Could be high water spots on roads. Storm motion will be fast. Visibility may be low with tight T/Td spreads. Terrain is hit and miss. Couple huge college basketball games are on Saturday. While wind shear parameters are solid, it may just be forced winds without more instability. Of course the door is open for a greater tornado threat though. Separately, those Excessive Rainfall charts might be of interest in the Event thread for heavy rain and flooding. No worries about today, but I bet they stay robust next update.

Model fantasy pattern change is like Groundhog Day, the movie. Nightmare never ends. In other news, Tennessee is looking fwd to getting Kentucky back in Knoxville. Surely the Vols will shoot better at home. It's almost a Law of Science, but we'll call it the home court advantage theory for now. Believe me that game will be closer no matter what happens.

Rare and exciting when the Atmosphere actually looks like the textbook. Neat stuff!

Storm Prediction Center introduces 15% for Saturday. Yeah after about 4-5 waves tugging on Gulf Moisture, it could indeed be far enough north. Best dynamics may go over Midwest, but enough southern stream energy lingers over Dixie if the moisture is here. Looking ahead deeper into March, ECMWF weeklies (verbatim) tee up severe weather. Trough returns to the West with SER. We'll see..

Duds are not too discouraging this early in the season. Same week in March and I'm going off, lol! That said, I will be ready for day-of decisions if I'm not hammered at work. Next weekend would be convenient.

ESPN Saturday Showcase is going to be big time! Kansas takes the floor at 4. All kinds of ACC dogfights are scheduled. Tennessee invades Rupp for Prime Time! I will not be looking at much weather until Sunday or Monday. Saturday is dedicated to college basketball.

In the short-term, looks like snow for Kentucky! Surface winds are advecting in cold dry air. Shallow front just arrived, so ice first. Then snow esp north away from Tenn. Light snow should get across to the KY/VA and WV/VA borders early Saturday, higher terrain. Agree with @Carvers Gap about the La Nina signature out West, probably related to stubborn Indonesia convection, but it is complex chaos too. Should be a true cold front end of the month, but I will move to the elephant in the room. Next week looks like the real deal with rain. Rivers are already up. Ohio River concerns weigh downstream. In both regions we all hope the stationary front wiggles elsewhere. It is a balancing act, but many talented people are working it at both the Corps and TVA. 12Z ECMWF and ICON remain bullish QPF. Both backed off slightly, but still a lot of rain. Much will depend on frontal position and forcing, along with track of each wave. If QPF forecasts don't back off by Sunday or Monday, an event thread is probably warranted. Huntsville NWS went ahead and released the WPC QPF chart through Day 7. Issued Friday morning.

Desert Southwest regional radar mosaic and local radars are very impressive today Thursday. GOES-17 shows a massive plume of moisture back to Hawaii (actually farther south to the ITCZ). Big time atmospheric river is teeing up on the STJ. Rain and flooding will be the weather story next week. Agree parts of West Kentucky (maybe northwest Tenn) should see some light ice Saturday morning. Could be light snow into higher elevations of East Kentucky over toward the VA/WV border Saturday.

The PNA is stubborn. EPS joined the warmer CFS, kind of relegating the colder ECMWF weeklies. Still, the door is open for cold the end of the month. Tropical Pacific convection signal is disconnected. One forecast broke down the MJO forecast (normally 15 degrees north/south of equator) to 0-15 N and 0-15 S. Most influence was Southern Hemisphere. Overall the monster forecast signal shown a few days ago has faded anyway. Stubborn SER means next week system kind of fell apart. I know we keep pushing it back; however, end of the month looks slightly colder than normal. West trough is forecast to lumber east, at least Central. Would allow cold air into our region. March blocking may start to fade mid-month. Assuming 6-8 weeks of influence from SSW, it expires mid-March. Bring on severe weather season!