nrgjeff

Feels like Kansas. Oh wait, here the tornadoes are at night though. Thursday morning was exceptionally windy in KCHA.

Re: the Hanks video, I'm amazed the power stayed on. Traffic light appears to be working right after the tornado crossed the power lines; however, we only get a second or two of that before he moves. Later in the video power lines elsewhere are down. He is too close though. Tornadoes can and do rapidly/instantly widen. Bad move there. Moving on, today has a conditional Slight for parts of the Valley and Plateau. Is today Thursday? Anyway new development could be low top, low probability, but high visibility. And in the daytime - what a novel idea around here! Roger Edwards says it best. Here's our section of the 13Z Day 1. Severe potential still exists with a possible second episode, along/ahead of the cold front from the Tennesseee Valley region southward, but is very conditional. Substantial stabilization to near the Gulf Coast is associated with the leading MCS. Only a narrow back door of at least marginally favorable theta-e advection and related airmass recovery will exist to the west, which comes with offsetting influences: 1. Southwesterly near-surface flow ahead of the front will yield the best trajectories for theta-e recovery around the morning MCS outflow, but also contribute to relatively reduced low-level shear and convergence. 2. Any southerly to southeasterly trajectories from the MCS passage will be more convectively stabilized. (no dice there - me) Still, a narrow plume of favorable buoyancy may develop -- with MLCAPE ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg in the north where deep lift, cooling aloft and shear will be greatest, to around 2000 J/kg in the south under weaker ascent and shear. With uncertain coverage, duration and intensity of convection in this regime, the risk level is not as great as farther southeast, and should diminish markedly after dark.

I will sleep well tonight. Just checked the CAMs, and more important stability forecasts. Then Thursday looks veered off with lots of storms well to our southeast. Honestly I was checking radar and surface too much Sun. Apr. 19 - residual nerves after the April 12 tornado. Tonight/Thursday - like 4/19 - we're not even in Slight. Since I both agree with and trust the SPC forecast, I probably won't check as much this second time after. It's a process - even for a Met. Good thing for all of us on this forum, we have greater than average knowledge of this stuff. I'm not sure if knowledge is power, but it helps. Remember as the great James Spann says, tornadoes are rare.

I'm skeptical of the sig tor index this setup. Winds shear will be high, but the greatest turning will be GA/SC. Speed shear will be over Bama, but not as much turning. CAPE/LI will be high over Bama with clearing; but, the front will be racing into GA/SC. Believe the STI is over-blown, after drilling down the charts. If the short-wave was 12 hours slower, it'd be a bear of a day. Thankfully probably not for our Tennessee Valley. I am honestly worried about Georgia and South Carolina. This human puts the bullseye about a state east of the STP, and with a lower number.

Probably a trough West, endless SER. Note I'm still negative and jaded about weather right now. In all seriousness, that could be a screaming +NAO and jet stream. Winters are a total loss, even in a Solar Min.

The only time they are worse than in winter.

I miss classic wrestling.

Wednesday night southwest flow apparently washed out any boundary. The veered off onslaught saved us from spinners. Then the 5% East Tenn. Wow it was obvious back around midday Wednesday that's not necessary. Might explain SPC. With all due respect, they've been way too model dependent the last couple seasons. Especially the amped up HRRR.

The good the bad and the ugly. Bad first: Tonight looks like an overnight event. The Good: I don't see enough turning (low or upper level) for a big tornado risk. Wind and hail yes, especially from sups. Instability could cause some gorilla hail Midsouth. Yeah we'll have some sups, but turning wind is not that bad. Helicity forecasts are up due to speed shear, but directional is meh. The Ugly: Forecasting an Outbreak Day 5 Sunday. Who knows? Maybe a Gulf Coast MCS will rescue all of us. I mean, it is Easter! Since we can't chase right now, might as well side with the Public and wish against severe.

GFS forgot there's no early season baseball games to snow out, lol! Though the Euro has jumped on. Is that some delayed April fool's joke? Happy Palm Sunday!

It's probably usable NWP, even with some degradation. We been modelling 500 mb for over 50 years. The pattern is obviously quiet upstairs. Chaser be like, fine. Get the garbage pattern over with while we can't go out anyway. No matter what, I'm out of the field through April 30, or later if state level guidance goes longer.

Count me in the weenie group. When that low passed to our south I was about to put a shoe through my TV. Next couple systems look weak and/or positive tilt. That's good to keep severe wx away from the already battered South. GFS and Euro both want to tee up Easter weekend, but it's Day 10. MJO / KWs. are still muddled with two separate areas going. North American modeling will probably be flaky.

TVA has a great article on the rain this year, and compares to last year. Seems Nature's SOP is break a record, and then break it again the next year. 2020 1Q set a 3-month rainfall record. https://www.tva.com/Newsroom/Rain-Rain-Go-Away

SPC goes with a tornado watch that gets to KATL and all of the southern 'burbs. While the LLJ is a little veered, it is bringing in a moist fetch. Also surface winds are really backed on that retreating boundary. Regarding that LLJ, I've noticed southern Georgia can produce while a little veered off. I think most of the Atlanta metro is OK, some morning rain and the atmo should not recover / destabilize enough to get nasty later. South Georgia could have a day though.

Jonesboro tornado trolled all the Illinois and Iowa chasers. Thankfully nobody was killed, but news says some serious injuries. OK we get a break this week. Probably a good thing. Models saw the East trough last week, and it's in progress now. Next week could get active again. Convection is coming out of the Indian Ocean toward Indonesia (maritime sub-continent). Lead by the ECMWF all models are coming around to a West trough. Euro verbatim favors Plains/Midwest. Getting into April it could go north, south and/or both. I don't have any plan to chase anything beyond 2 hours. Dixie just isn't worth the drive, lol.

Thursday night the stars were particularly vivid. I could almost discern the Milky Way from MBY but not quite near the city. Still the peaceful feeling out under the stars was incredible. Figure with reduced pollution in these times the star gazing will be excellent on clear nights.

Gulf will also help severe season along. LOL the CFC flip flops on ENSO. Ahh, that spring predictability barrier.

Late summer drought (perhaps flash repeat) would not shock me. Risk of sooner, but depends on if SER is dirty or clean. Until then pretty wet, yuck!

Hopefully the -NAO is a joke too. Might as well get on with spring. Let the SER give us some sun and Vitamin D! Long range I have to favor a persistent SER. TNI might get backwards for severe early / SER late spring. However, the broad forcing is already acting Nina. So after electric load goes on holiday, maybe utilities can make some money back this summer. HOT and HUMID - Dry heat is off the table after all this rain.

Big changes since Sunday. Instead of Ohio River Valley jungle, we now have an outflow boundary in North Alabama and just south of KCHA. Still plenty of failure modes. A. Rain-out B. Veered off C. Capped (too little too late) D. Combo of 2-3 above E. Rather watch sports reruns Early season is prone to failures, which is of course good for the general public. That said I figure ENH is incoming. Obviously if something is close to KCHA I'll take a look. No chase greater than 2 hours though; so, I won't be visiting the chasable northwest Bama area today.

We got throttled March 2012. I've nothing much on this week. Veered off trash. Only turning is in the Ohio River Valley jungle. Back to NCAA Basketball reruns!

I expect Tuesday will get an Outlook on Saturday morning or soon after. Euro remained consistent if not stronger. LLJ is a touch veered, but not like the last two systems. It's fortunately not backed like Super Tuesday either. Upper level winds are a given. Low level theta E (temps/humidity) will be a question. Even with all those caveats, if the Euro holds, one has to think Tuesday gets a 15%.

Be safe @Calderon and thank you for your service!

A less smug tone is appreciated next time. Thank you. Holston you are a better person than me, lol!

The Midwest can have it. Dixie had enough heartache for the season.