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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Snow in October. That's bearish winter right? LOL Weeklies both agree warm back half of November. Cancel winter. Just kidding! It's banter.
  2. nrgjeff
    Oh lovely. Anything really happening up that way? How much wind is really mixing down? Appreciate ground reports.
  3. nrgjeff
    I'm ready for May. Cold front hasn't even really crossed the Plateau and I'm already tired of winter. I mean it doesn't snow anymore in KCHA so what's the point?
  4. nrgjeff
    Escalated quickly per severe wx thread. Halloween front may finally break the SER. Always takes a few tries. Cool first half of November looks reasonable. Key will be second half. If November is mostly cold I will quit with my bearish barrage. Otherwise, the SER should occasionally visit per 07-08 and 08-09 winters. NWP will be awful for a few days with competing signals and competing areas of tropical convection.
  5. nrgjeff
    Thanks Carvers for the foliage report. Started getting some change around here too. Regrettably weekend rain and clouds will kill what could have been a nice outing between 2,000 and 4,000 FT. Maybe next weekend at lower elevations. Recent years the weekend after Halloween is still good. The 11-15 day actually might get cold per guidance. Looks like a little more support relative to the now 1-5 day stall. More ridging entire north Pac this time, if correct. Euro weeklies are cooler than the CFS, for those who don't get the Euro. Debate is whether the PNA lines up right, or opposite. Riding GOA or northwest NA? Easiest black/white or red/blue difference is Hawaii. Looks like the PNA will drive the outcome. Keep in mind it's a 4-point teleconnection. GOA, Hawaii, northwest NA, and our beloved Southeast. Few times last year and now recently the PNA explained otherwise strange blocking behavior.
  6. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    PDO is trying to drop. If it continues it'll be hard to get Nino 1-2 to warm up. Modoki could be wasted on -WPO instead of -EPO. Mild and wet SE? Still lots of grand solar min talk. Big blocking could be wasted on an out of phase PNA. Good to be in the Plains though.
  7. nrgjeff
    You should see the Euro, Canadian and UKMet for the weekend low coming out of Texas. They all strongly agree with each other, and the GFS is an outlier. Probably go warmer Euro next week. Now the 11-15 day period they are all cold. That case, GFS might be better for intensity. Interesting follow up to the conference I attended a couple weeks ago. While a -EPO is cold here a strong --EPO actually buckles the flow too much. Trough dives into West/Plains first and pops a SER. Even with a slight -NAO the SER oozes up. Can't really share pics but we've all seen it plenty the last year or two. Super blocking may be too much of a good thing. More examples of extremes disappointing compared to moderate. We like Alaska and Greenland together; but, too much too strong and the snow is Deep South, leaving us dry cold. Severe wx indices pegged off the chart normally ends up too much convection for chasing. How about the Miller A that pulls in too much warm air vs a Miller B slider? In the past I wrote about a weak source region; however, I think that's not all. West/Plains had some serious cold when we missed. I think it's the over-buckling of the jet stream. Wavelength shortens a little and SER forms. With all this super-blocking early strato warming, probably too much. Just go mild. (Ducks for cover) Honestly think it'll be variable mild, but with some cold shots. Eventually the shallow cold air oozes in if a couple short-waves chip away at the SER. Midwest cutters of course fail. Should be a challenging mix this winter.
  8. nrgjeff
    Sure enough MEM damage survey rates EF-1. Little drama for the Mid South to round out an active 12 hours starting back in OK/AR and of course Dallas.
  9. nrgjeff
    Naysayer warning, hatched 15%! Indeed ECMWF and now GFS are slowing down and weakening fronts into the Southeast. Believe the cold SSTs off SA have something to do with it. Also wavelength issues associated with split MJO convection. Japan's Himarwari satellite shows it so well. Convection crossing the Date Line would be a cold signal. Ooops! Got new blowing up in the Indian Ocean too. This winter is going to be a headache. Believe we'll get a couple legit shots and a lot of false alarms. I'm looking forward to forecasting it like I look forward to a root canal. Otherwise mild, I can't help it.
  10. nrgjeff
    Sunday afternoon SPC gave the Monday outlook a haircut. Probably valid. LLJ weakens going into eveing. That's just ugly. One looks for it to strengthen going into evening. HRRR has stuff ahead of the line, but it's the HRRR out 36 hours LOL. WRF versions don't and I think I'll believe meh for HSV to CHA. Wake me up in May. Edit: Wake me up when Mahomes is back.
  11. nrgjeff
    Oh yeah I totally agree with you Carvers. Also understood your skepticism with the tweet. Good posts. Some Wx Twitter is great, like Anthony, Grit and others. Also some Strato experts and Climo scientists I follow. Somehow, even with a good follow list, retweets sometimes get thru. Even if they are making fun of it, I still get high blood press. Anyway the GFS and GEFS are still frozen out to Day 15. EPS usually does not bounce around a lot. Figure it will stay cold. Occasionally has 8-10% cluster a little warmer SE. However the rest are full-on full-latitude trough. Looks cold end of Oct. Back to the busy hemispheric pattern, jury is out of November. Fingers crossed.
  12. nrgjeff
    High numbers sell subscriptions. Carvers is right, reality is 3 or 4 is actually more impressive. Oh well. Wx Twitter is awful. Wake me up in May? Oops this is not Banter, I have to say something other than biting cynicism. Hour 360 EPS is nearly unanimous still cold. 15 days out is not too reliable; but, the consistency is notable. Can it carry to mid-Novie?
  13. nrgjeff
    Alright time to get serious* after two cynical posts today (other threads). GFS and Euro are finally lined up on the Plains Sunday. That's going into Ozarks trash so no travel for me. Monday could go in the Lower Miss Valley into the Tennessee Valley if everything lined up. Turning with height has improved over previously forecast junk hodos. Moisture is there. Probably have an ongoing line of storms in progress. That would keep things mainly wind. While I'm not too excited about Monday, it's a whole lot more exciting than praying the October weather pattern somehow holds on into November. Think KC Chiefs blowing leads. Kills my optimism about anything. *Sorry I guess it's all relative, lol!
  14. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Japan always goes blue Southeast US. Probably not that cold here. Unfortunately climate change is killing mid Atlantic skiing as badly as it is Honshu skiing.
  15. nrgjeff
    Aaahhh the post-frontal choke job!
  16. nrgjeff
    All the answers are in Kansas, lol! OK to get serious. lots of solid posts above this page. I'm staying warm winter unless I see some big cold in November. October simply does not correlate. Weeklies are trash weeks 3-4. PDO is indeed trending down. It's positive right now, but West Coast waters are rapidly cooling on the dT charts. A -PDO is a strong SER signal all else equal. Coldest years here were accompanied by -AMO. Both negative, is cold and stormy coast-to-coast. A -PDO +AMO is really mild here. Both positive is mild coast-to-coast (too much warm water). Finally +PDO and -AMO gets you those 1980s arctic outbreaks. The two are out of phase about a half wavelength. This winter looks great again in Kansas, not so much East Tenn. Modoki look to El Nino is not enough if we go -PDO. A -NAO is not enough either without help post-climate-change. Shift everything north. -NAO blasts the GL to NE. We sit south of the jet stream, actually going mild. Used to only be a hot signal summer. Getting mild winter now. Pattern shapes up like 02/03 or solar cycle 07/08 and 08/09. All were cold nationally and burned a lot of gas. All were also meh Southeast US. Solar 09/10 is next winter. After softening my bearish stance over the weekend, I'm back in the solid mild winter camp. To go colder I would need to see big cold outbreaks early November with the start of some strato warming in the 6-15 day models. While the 11-15 day is a joke at 2m it is somewhat reliable in the stratosphere.
  17. nrgjeff
    Dry soil may be helping the temperature swings. We are not yet to the time of year where snowpack north is needed for cold anomalies. Dry soil can allow cold fronts to settle in now that the SER is broken. At the same time the Gulf Coast and Florida remain warmer than normal. Return flow will pop temperatures between fronts. Front parade continues. Looks like midweek and again early next week; warm in between. Another front is forecast in the less reliable 11-15 day period. Then weeklies try to warm up after November 5th. Should I wait for the Euro weeklies tonight? Well, none of the weeklies are reliable out week 4 and it's shoulder season, so it does not matter. Bottom line: Need to see continued march of the fronts into mid-November. By the the first of Nov, models will have that forecast period. Jury is still out on a long-term pattern change, just shoulder season shuffle, or return to AN temps.
  18. nrgjeff
    Appears CBS will show the KC Chiefs in Chattanooga and most of East Tenn. Hopefully I don't throw a shoe at the TV. Can't deal with another loss. I will stay warm winter if KC wins. Does look like another cold front later in October. Jury is out until November pattern shows itself.
  19. nrgjeff
    That hit was brutal. Hope the NFL levies heavy fines. Kansas and Tennessee fans counting down to basketball season.
  20. nrgjeff
    Rank snow black holes. Washington DC Asheville NC Chattanooga Tri Cities (without synoptic help) KC Chiefs defense
  21. nrgjeff
    Somehow KCHA got nearly 1/3 inch of rain. Thought about water but it's late in the season. Weekend overnights should put the grass to sleep anyway.
  22. nrgjeff
    First the IOD and Modoki signature above is indeed a cold signal for the Southeast, pre-climate change. It's worthless post-climate change. Second the typhoon remnants slams into the Pac NW, undercutting any AK ridge. That's torch east of the Rockies. Later in winter any undercutting mild flow also gets to work with +AMO. My forecast for internal clients is a mild winter Southeast.
  23. nrgjeff
    Front banging into ridge remnants + downslope = disappointment. Yes, that is so winter also.
  24. nrgjeff
    Spike in AAM and MJO wave (that sparked Hagibis) should deliver some BN temps here next week. As Jax noted the supertyphoon may not curve right (more later). At any rate we'll have that stubborn low off the East Coast and new front early next week to keep temps in check. That front next week will be the true usher of cooler air. Takes 2-3 to beat down a SER. Now the remnants of Hagibis are forecast to slam into the Pacific Northwest, rather than amp up a long-lasting AK ridge. When the Pac NW gets the fire hose, it's usually blowtorch east of the Rockies. Oh yeah, 360 hour ensembles all have, you guess it.. More SER! Never trust a deterministic that far. However when clusters are so lined up in agreement with another synoptic teleconnection (Pac NW) I'll go warm again here late October. Sets up a warm Novie. Nino climo is warm December. Carvers may be right about a colder shift back half of winter. However I'll go with the brief version. How about another warm Feb? I'll go another KC Chiefs playoff disappointment and mild winter.
  25. nrgjeff
    Teleconnections are less useful south of 40 degrees N now post climate change. The 6-10 day forecast is testament to the 11-15 day fail. Where is our East cold? It's out West! Big typhoon is progged in the Pacific. Look for fun times forecasting October. Weeks 3-4 forecasts are notoriously awful. However, seasonal forecasting (2-5 months) clearly adds value over climo. Reason is less granular. Nailing weeks 3-4 is shooting for the moon, and beyond the state of the art of the science. Broad brushing months 2-5 is both possible and valuable. I have to assume a return to split regime IO/PO Tropical convection in November. If the IOD weakens and Nino gets more full basin (with the +AMO) that's too much warm ocean. Will continue AN temps for winter East Tenn. Delta could see more cold oozing down east of the Ozarks some events. Southeast Tennessee snow impeachment inquiry continues.
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