Jump to content

nrgjeff

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,047

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    EPS has been zig zagging wildly all week, more like the GEFS or even the lowly GFS. Speaking of it, the GFS can't decide between snow or severe Christmas week. Oh what fun! Carvers check-list above looks good to me. While the models still have -NAO overnight they got real warm with the Pacific indicators. Equal balance shifted warmer, but it can (and probably will) change again both ways. Convection in MJO phases 2-3 adds volatility since both the models struggle in those phases. Bottom line: I think the end of December will average mild. It will be variable however, note another sharp midweek cold front on deck. Christmas week could three-peat. Perhaps surprisingly, I'm less bearish than the weekly models. Maybe a turn colder in early January. If not, that time of year normal temps can still get it done.
  2. nrgjeff
    SPC still has Monday highlighted. Lots of kinematics including close to the surface, so a little straight line wind would not surprise me. However now the 850 mb level is veered off and precip may be sloppy. 925 mb is trying not to veer off and surface to just aloft is south. Still I think given the frontal orientation along the upper winds, it's a mess. Models continue to trend more positive tilt on the trough. At one point a few days ago it was almost neutral, but that's long gone. Can't imagine anything more than 15% even on game day. Not all D4-8 go big. This one was just evident on the synoptic scale, but slight all the way.
  3. nrgjeff
    EPS is not as cold as the GEFS at the ground. However the EPS trends toward that Greenland ridge. Hopefully this info helps the blocking discussion if no EPS access. @jaxjagman has a solid post deciphering Anthony speak on the previous page. @Carvers Gap is probably right about the ECMWF, this page. I've seen a few mild 11-15 day forecasts turn cold in the 6-10 day period. Tough pattern for models and humans. Christmas week (at least early) currently looks thunderstormy. Who knows? Maybe the GFS will go snow again. Any solution, including sunny and 55, could happen. My main point is that I'm skeptical of an extended blowtorch. I won't call big cold either. Just looking at the trend, it's back and fourth. And it actually snowed in Chattanooga!
  4. nrgjeff
    Always fun to saber rattle severe in December, a holiday tradition for me, though I enjoyed the snow yesterday. Moisture looks a little JIT and the wave has a slight positive tilt on the ECMWF. I can see why SPC waits. However the upper level wind fields are robust. Currently no VBV issues and 500 mb is nearly straight west. Things like this can work out in December when it's more about dynamics than thermodynamics. We'll see... If Monday does not work out there's always Christmas severe saber rattling. Big warm-up is forecast that holiday week before a front. Little more of a West trough is forecast for a few days before advancing into the Plains and Mid South. Funny a few days ago one GFS run had snow for Christmas. Anything is possible 2 weeks out!
  5. nrgjeff
    Thank you to everyone for reports and pictures. I still can't react, but it lets me post. Reactions serve a valuable purpose, to cut down on clutter posts. Anyway I do have something to share. Got a thick dusting last night, maybe 1/3 inch but not a half. Here is our result. Daughter and I built this thanks to a 2-hr school delay. Micro-snowman sits on a deck railing. Zoom in for the win!
  6. nrgjeff
    True a strong tight PV does not necessarily mean blow torch. Just as a weak PV is not guaranteed cold. If the strong PV translates to 500 mb and a +AO then odds of big cold drop, but models are conflicted on the AO. I have a feeling it gets colder the beginning of January. Warm spells have not lasted as long as progged so far this winter. The easing of the IOD, previously more lit, may reshuffle. However for now the trend is variable instead of constant warmth. I'll put at least some chips on colder than normal at least a couple weeks in January.
  7. nrgjeff
    Still can't believe it's snowing in Chattanooga, even though it's not sticking well. Grill and metal surfaces mainly, but the flakes add holiday cheer. I'm out of reactions today. Want to thank all who report. Love the pictures coming in now. AmWx needs to allow more reactions instead of stifling expression (or forcing more posts when a reaction will do). Anyway the dry air that robbed Nashville is stubborn. I think it's impacting precip advancing out of Alabama toward southeast Tenn. Feels like that slug of moisture will break up in southeast Tenn. Appears northeast Tennessee is doing OK though. On the plus side the Upper Plateau seems to be doing well today. Earlier I thought there, it might be a good day. On the Upper Plateau it is now time to play Ice Cube's song Good Day. Radio version if kids in the room.
  8. nrgjeff
    Sleet in East Brainerd (Chattanooga) which matches official KCHA ob. I'm falling out of my chair, winter precip actually made it into the valley floor / Chattanooga proper, lol! Nothing sticking. I wasn't even checking until I heard it on a north facing window. I'm still recovering from almost falling out of my chair.
  9. nrgjeff
    Good to see new members posting. Thank you for the observations! Welcome to the board. If long time lurkers, welcome to posting on the board. Memphis will have a tough time. Looks like that dry air aloft is quite evident on the radar, hole around the site. Nashville might have the same problem; however, being farther east keeps BNA in the game longer. GFS bless its heart. Had the dry air near MEM but still tried to spit out lots of snow accumulation. GFS forecast all that virga but forgot it's not hitting the ground. NAM radar simulation looks wrong compared to live composite radar; however, NAM is right it's not hitting the ground. I still think it could be a good day on the Upper Plateau into East Kentucky. Have the Ice Cube song ready, lol! MRX to TRI is such a crap shoot trying to get the Valley to cool off. However maybe the NWS has a point about cold air delayed but not denied meeting moisture at the right time. (Post is back on page 3). Speaking of looking back, page 4 dual pole radar discussion is a good read. Thanks y'all. One easy part of the forecast: Chattanooga all rain.
  10. nrgjeff
    Looks good Middle Tennessee. Looks boring southeast Tenn. I've been surprised at ECMWF snowfall output. Euro seems to be accumulating too soon with the warm ground and questionable 2m temps. Plus the old fashioned thickness/QPF chart ends precip so quickly right after thicknesses drop. Yes, the 06Z is more realistic with the Valley of Death black hole. NAM might be more realistic with lighter totals. Interestingly, the NAM shows temps cold enough for a few hours during light QPF. Its thickness/QPF chart meshes well with its snow output, which adds confidence over the Euro. While my lighter model choice may sound bearish, at least it accumulates a little - an improvement over my thoughts yesterday. Plateau and parts of Middle Tennessee lower elevations appear to have a good shot at sticking snow. Might only be an inch or so but it should be really pretty sticking to the trees and stuff. Mountains of course will get theirs later, but that's pretty much a given. Forecast fun is at lower elevations. A more vigorous last piece of energy could drop a couple inches west of the Plateau with 3+ on the Plateau. More likely scenario is less than an inch lower elevations (Mid-Tenn) to a couple inches Plateau. Mid-South edit: Gut says it gets going east of Memphis and North Mississippi. However that area is infamous for surprises with rushing cold fronts. We'll see, but I doubt it. I'm not expecting anything around Chattanooga. Maybe Signal Mountain dusting, iff the more vigorous case above. I've doubts about Huntsville and Knoxville, but we'll see. Feel better about Tri Cities, maybe even Morristown. Those two can do OK with lingering moisture. Still think the best correctly timed true lift will be Middle Tenn.
  11. nrgjeff
    One might be surprised that bearish Jeff actually thinks it could turn cold again as soon as the New Year. I'm inferring from / building on Jax's posts above. GFS wants to get tropical convection going over Indonesia which is a warm signal here. ECMWF might have a better handle with a weaker response over Indonesia. SSTs are closer to normal (prev cooler) but absolute SSTs keep dropping in Dec. Plus the IOD is still lit. China Met Agency has the China warming up from below normal to slightly above normal in a few days; then, warmer than normal next week. However they never go super warm and they trend back down. They agree with the ECMWF model, which cools down China faster than the GFS does. This only works at certain wavelengths, but I figure the Southeast US will similarly avoid a massive prolonged warm spell. Mild but not forever. Agree with Jax Christmas looks mild. Mele Kalikimaka. However I have hopes the New Year brings new chances of snow.
  12. nrgjeff
    Short-term I like the Morristown discussion issued Sunday pre-dawn, digging into type of precip. Partial thickness and temperature profiles support the forecast disco. I also agree non-event though. Mid-term the Ensembles have gone all mild. I really doubt it lasts, but could be a mild Holiday. How do you say Merry Christmas in Hawaiian? Mele Kalikimaka! Even the cluster with AK ridging has the PNA backwards for the Southeast, giving the Rockies/Plains the cold instead. Again, I figure it won't last forever. This year the see-saw goes both ways. Long-term I would not worry that the Strato did a major head-fake. Even if it had been jostled, it's normally not too impactful anyway the first tries of the season. Maybe next time will work out closer to the core of winter.
  13. nrgjeff
    LOL when 5-days or less forecasts are still in Banter, we don't trust the models much. I agree though. Nashville pre-dawn Sunday discussion said it best. Better luck next time snow enthusiasts. When's the next chance of severe weather, or the first decent Bowl game?
  14. nrgjeff
    ECMWF seems to like a second back piece of energy near/post frontal (Tuesday) even if it's weak. Wobbles between still mainly rain, or a chance of snow I-40 north (and Plateau). Can't see any path for Chattanooga though. My next post will probably be on Monday. Hard to feel anticipation when I've got Chatty near 0% but I'm always happy for members up north (or northwest) who get snow. If this one craps out, the pattern remains cold-ish for several days after fropa with East troughing. For now, have a good weekend!
  15. nrgjeff
    ^ Half joking but could be right on. Late next week winter storm could be interesting in the true Mid-South (MEM/PAH) and a real CAD beast over in the Carolinas. If it even happens, I'm counting on WAA magic in the Valley to get KCHA* above freezing shortly after onset of precip. I hate that when it's snow. Love it when it bails us out of ice! Still a day 8-10 event. GFS is slower than the ECMWF because the GFS gins it up stronger over New Mexico and Texas which slows it. 12Z Euro yesterday had energy from the Southwest but did not really get going until East Texas. Timing differences are not too important this far out. Main theme is NWP shows a chance of a winter storm. Other scenarios include drier cold or a cutter; so, I'm not too excited. Regardless most all scenarios keep Chattanooga mainly rain, which I will always take over ice. If the Mid-South scores I'm hoping sleet and snow; less/no FZRA makes my job easier. I'll leave the Carolina CAD to the Southeast forum. Just keep that crap out of KCHA - unless all levels cold enough for snow. *KCHA typically does warm up as fast as progged, but just CHA. From Athens north, including Maryville and Knoxville, cold tends to hold longer than progged.
  16. nrgjeff
    Temperatures look to trend at or below normal next week (after Mon/Tue) and maybe the following week. The colder shift in the 6-10 day started sneaking in progs a couple days ago. Then the 11-15 day joined in on a second cold front. NWP run-over-run cold gains have stopped, but the pattern looks seasonably cold (or colder) attm. Big AK ridging is a point of strong agreement. Whether the PNA lines up for the Southeast or for the Rockies/Plains remains to be seen. Even the latter would eventually bleed east. The 11-15 day trough looks a little sharper than that of the 6-10 day. The broader 6-10 day might mean less South. The deeper 11-15 day could deliver to lower latitudes, but the PNA will guide trajectory. Texas blue norther fading toward the Southeast, or Midwest hammer direct to Southeast? Tough to know yet. Precipitation is my usual. Probably rain except Plateau and Mountain leftovers. That's progs verbatim. Lots of cutters and post-frontal garbage which won't work out East Tenn. Things could change either direction. Precipitation in the extended.. That seems to work well in February. Sometimes even January. That Feb. Valentines Day snow is legendary, lol!
  17. nrgjeff
    ECMWF weekly charts are pretty benign, no matter what side one favors. The warm weeks 2-3 are already advertised in the ECMWF ensembles. While a loss to the GFS, it's no change within the European guidance. End of December is shown seasonable for the most part. Clusters are all over the place, common for week 4 where accuracy drops. Main takeaway is no endless blowtorch. Euro looks too cold in the Rockies, perhaps its snow feedback issue. Southwest low for two weeks? Doubt that. Early January (weeks 5-6) is so far out of the range of skill for these products that I will withhold comment. Slightly mild but mostly meaningless. Instead will need to watch sub-seasonal drivers which are indeed a mess, as mentioned in previous posts.
  18. nrgjeff
    I infer from Lezak's public forecast that the dominant pattern is the trough Plains, which gives 3-4 winter storms for KCMO. Secondary pattern is not discussed in the public forecast; however, the LRC usually has one. I don't have access to the subscription, though maybe I should. Anyway I figure the secondary pattern is northwest flow. That's less juicy your way but probably my only hope over in Tenn.
  19. nrgjeff
    Yeah the next big cold shot (11-15 day) may dive into the West first. Therefore a Midwest cutter would not surprise me. Note I'm skipping next week and talking 11-15 day. KCMO TV Met Gary Lezak released his public winter forecast. The really good stuff is behind a paywall; but, I can infer plenty from the KC forecast. He's cold and snowy in KC. Unfortunately that is a Plains favorable storm track, which matches much of what has been observed since September. Said primary pattern is cutters, especially bad for southeast Tenn. However a secondary pattern is forecast. He does not discuss it on the public forecast; but, his system has a secondary pattern. That's the colder northwest flow when our region could benefit. Especially true if split flow and a slider or two from Texas through Georgia. I figure all that good stuff is more likely Jan/Feb. Will try not to sweat a mild December. Pun intended? Only if we need AC at Christmas like four years ago, lol!
  20. nrgjeff
    Since I'm a Met I can't really throw rocks at the CDC folks, lol! UT would have beat FSU except those turnovers. I wouldn't worry too much this early in the season. Jax congratulations on the Iron Bowl! That is always fun esp when it's at Auburn. Kansas wins the Maui Jim Invitational. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Finally, jumped on some Cyber Monday ski lift tickets (Snowshoe and WinterPlace WV). Sorry if I cause a permanent SER now.
  21. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you!
  22. nrgjeff
    Lookout Mountain and Signal Mountain saw a dusting of snow this morning. Just rain in Chattanooga proper. Anybody surprised? Didn't think so. The only snowflakes I think I'll see this December (East Brainerd area) are the cheesy lights hanging on my house, lol!
  23. nrgjeff
    Saturday has more instability than Tuesday night's debacle. However Saturday low level winds look a bit veered. Probably be more interesting Friday in the Plains. At any rate Saturday would require some sort of meso-scale boundary set-up if those 850/925 winds don't back a bit on the models. I'm not counting on that. Good thing we have plenty of football, basketball and other sports this long weekend. Happy Thanksgiving!
  24. nrgjeff
    Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!
  25. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    If the IOD stays on full-tilt, it does kind of promote a Modoki shadow/imprint. However like pointed out above, sub surface is warm east. Perhaps most important, will be weaker convection when it's over/near Indonesia - thanks to cool SST anomalies. That's typically the warm phase, so muting it could help keep colder MJO phases.
×
×
  • Create New...