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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Google Translate SPC: Tennessee Valley = North Alabama. Bama did get their obligatory tornado warnings, lol! In all seriousness SPC typically refers to the Lower Tenn Valley. Appalachians = maybe East Tenn. If you like severe wx you'll have to just hope, because something usually goes wrong. Except the Plateau might surprise. Also check the probabilities. IIRC they were never really there for East Tenn. Marginal used to be general, so it does not really count in my mind. I still have trouble giving Enhanced respect because it used to be Slight. However the science can discern the two now; so, I think breaking up the categories is correct. What else to include in Banter? Pacific convection is everywhere. Thunderstorms for everyone. Good luck forecasting the mid-latitudes though. Finally in sports, Kansas is #1 and Gonzaga is #2. Somehow this run feels like the GFS, and I'm not necessarily talking about the Zags. KU is at Villanova next. KU suffers the #1 jinx frequently.
  2. nrgjeff
    I have heard, snow breeds more snow. Basically it says a cold weather pattern is in place so another snow falls. We've seen two in a row here. I've seen it back in Kansas. I wonder if we'll ever see it again, lol. As for the thunder, it is about an amplified pattern. It can go both directions, especially in the Plains. I think here it's more the warm to cold, due to slower recovery. This time looks like a Deep South system is wasted Sun/Mon. Then next week is forecast warm, but the 6-10 day has been less reliable than usual lately. Oh yeah this is the Obs thread. Decent wind rain thunder and lightning in Chattanooga Monday evening. While sub-severe IMBY it was still a notable December thunderstorm with intermittent vivid lightning and loud thunder. Calmed down overnight. Then just before dawn the winds cranked up as the cold front crashed over the Plateau into town.
  3. nrgjeff
    Oh the weather outside is frightful, literally! Midday was robust in Louisiana including that tornado emergency for Alexandria. This afternoon looks a little more linear for North Mississippi. Strongest shear is ejecting away from Louisiana and southern Mississippi; however as of 3pm Central those south cells remain robust. Greater and forecast instability allowed this event to escalate day 1. Also it appears the LLJ was a little less veered through midday, compared to progged over the weekend. Little details make a big difference in Dixie. Y'all be safe!
  4. nrgjeff
    Yes what Jax says at the end bleeds into the weekly versions. I almost mentioned it above, but didn't since it's week 3+. Well, why not? CFS locks up cold in Canada (BN heights) downstream of its AK ridge. Euro weeklies, on the other hand, go with AN heights in southwestern Canada and the US Pac NW. That's not a classic +PNA but it has some of the characteristics (including Hawaii). Euro surface is not too cold here in the SE US but it's better than the CFS furnace. While weeklies are not too useful past week 3, one can certainly see colder scenarios than the CFS shows.
  5. nrgjeff
    EPS has been zig zagging wildly all week, more like the GEFS or even the lowly GFS. Speaking of it, the GFS can't decide between snow or severe Christmas week. Oh what fun! Carvers check-list above looks good to me. While the models still have -NAO overnight they got real warm with the Pacific indicators. Equal balance shifted warmer, but it can (and probably will) change again both ways. Convection in MJO phases 2-3 adds volatility since both the models struggle in those phases. Bottom line: I think the end of December will average mild. It will be variable however, note another sharp midweek cold front on deck. Christmas week could three-peat. Perhaps surprisingly, I'm less bearish than the weekly models. Maybe a turn colder in early January. If not, that time of year normal temps can still get it done.
  6. nrgjeff
    SPC still has Monday highlighted. Lots of kinematics including close to the surface, so a little straight line wind would not surprise me. However now the 850 mb level is veered off and precip may be sloppy. 925 mb is trying not to veer off and surface to just aloft is south. Still I think given the frontal orientation along the upper winds, it's a mess. Models continue to trend more positive tilt on the trough. At one point a few days ago it was almost neutral, but that's long gone. Can't imagine anything more than 15% even on game day. Not all D4-8 go big. This one was just evident on the synoptic scale, but slight all the way.
  7. nrgjeff
    EPS is not as cold as the GEFS at the ground. However the EPS trends toward that Greenland ridge. Hopefully this info helps the blocking discussion if no EPS access. @jaxjagman has a solid post deciphering Anthony speak on the previous page. @Carvers Gap is probably right about the ECMWF, this page. I've seen a few mild 11-15 day forecasts turn cold in the 6-10 day period. Tough pattern for models and humans. Christmas week (at least early) currently looks thunderstormy. Who knows? Maybe the GFS will go snow again. Any solution, including sunny and 55, could happen. My main point is that I'm skeptical of an extended blowtorch. I won't call big cold either. Just looking at the trend, it's back and fourth. And it actually snowed in Chattanooga!
  8. nrgjeff
    Always fun to saber rattle severe in December, a holiday tradition for me, though I enjoyed the snow yesterday. Moisture looks a little JIT and the wave has a slight positive tilt on the ECMWF. I can see why SPC waits. However the upper level wind fields are robust. Currently no VBV issues and 500 mb is nearly straight west. Things like this can work out in December when it's more about dynamics than thermodynamics. We'll see... If Monday does not work out there's always Christmas severe saber rattling. Big warm-up is forecast that holiday week before a front. Little more of a West trough is forecast for a few days before advancing into the Plains and Mid South. Funny a few days ago one GFS run had snow for Christmas. Anything is possible 2 weeks out!
  9. nrgjeff
    True a strong tight PV does not necessarily mean blow torch. Just as a weak PV is not guaranteed cold. If the strong PV translates to 500 mb and a +AO then odds of big cold drop, but models are conflicted on the AO. I have a feeling it gets colder the beginning of January. Warm spells have not lasted as long as progged so far this winter. The easing of the IOD, previously more lit, may reshuffle. However for now the trend is variable instead of constant warmth. I'll put at least some chips on colder than normal at least a couple weeks in January.
  10. nrgjeff
    One might be surprised that bearish Jeff actually thinks it could turn cold again as soon as the New Year. I'm inferring from / building on Jax's posts above. GFS wants to get tropical convection going over Indonesia which is a warm signal here. ECMWF might have a better handle with a weaker response over Indonesia. SSTs are closer to normal (prev cooler) but absolute SSTs keep dropping in Dec. Plus the IOD is still lit. China Met Agency has the China warming up from below normal to slightly above normal in a few days; then, warmer than normal next week. However they never go super warm and they trend back down. They agree with the ECMWF model, which cools down China faster than the GFS does. This only works at certain wavelengths, but I figure the Southeast US will similarly avoid a massive prolonged warm spell. Mild but not forever. Agree with Jax Christmas looks mild. Mele Kalikimaka. However I have hopes the New Year brings new chances of snow.
  11. nrgjeff
    Short-term I like the Morristown discussion issued Sunday pre-dawn, digging into type of precip. Partial thickness and temperature profiles support the forecast disco. I also agree non-event though. Mid-term the Ensembles have gone all mild. I really doubt it lasts, but could be a mild Holiday. How do you say Merry Christmas in Hawaiian? Mele Kalikimaka! Even the cluster with AK ridging has the PNA backwards for the Southeast, giving the Rockies/Plains the cold instead. Again, I figure it won't last forever. This year the see-saw goes both ways. Long-term I would not worry that the Strato did a major head-fake. Even if it had been jostled, it's normally not too impactful anyway the first tries of the season. Maybe next time will work out closer to the core of winter.
  12. nrgjeff
    LOL when 5-days or less forecasts are still in Banter, we don't trust the models much. I agree though. Nashville pre-dawn Sunday discussion said it best. Better luck next time snow enthusiasts. When's the next chance of severe weather, or the first decent Bowl game?
  13. nrgjeff
    ECMWF seems to like a second back piece of energy near/post frontal (Tuesday) even if it's weak. Wobbles between still mainly rain, or a chance of snow I-40 north (and Plateau). Can't see any path for Chattanooga though. My next post will probably be on Monday. Hard to feel anticipation when I've got Chatty near 0% but I'm always happy for members up north (or northwest) who get snow. If this one craps out, the pattern remains cold-ish for several days after fropa with East troughing. For now, have a good weekend!
  14. nrgjeff
    ^ Half joking but could be right on. Late next week winter storm could be interesting in the true Mid-South (MEM/PAH) and a real CAD beast over in the Carolinas. If it even happens, I'm counting on WAA magic in the Valley to get KCHA* above freezing shortly after onset of precip. I hate that when it's snow. Love it when it bails us out of ice! Still a day 8-10 event. GFS is slower than the ECMWF because the GFS gins it up stronger over New Mexico and Texas which slows it. 12Z Euro yesterday had energy from the Southwest but did not really get going until East Texas. Timing differences are not too important this far out. Main theme is NWP shows a chance of a winter storm. Other scenarios include drier cold or a cutter; so, I'm not too excited. Regardless most all scenarios keep Chattanooga mainly rain, which I will always take over ice. If the Mid-South scores I'm hoping sleet and snow; less/no FZRA makes my job easier. I'll leave the Carolina CAD to the Southeast forum. Just keep that crap out of KCHA - unless all levels cold enough for snow. *KCHA typically does warm up as fast as progged, but just CHA. From Athens north, including Maryville and Knoxville, cold tends to hold longer than progged.
  15. nrgjeff
    Temperatures look to trend at or below normal next week (after Mon/Tue) and maybe the following week. The colder shift in the 6-10 day started sneaking in progs a couple days ago. Then the 11-15 day joined in on a second cold front. NWP run-over-run cold gains have stopped, but the pattern looks seasonably cold (or colder) attm. Big AK ridging is a point of strong agreement. Whether the PNA lines up for the Southeast or for the Rockies/Plains remains to be seen. Even the latter would eventually bleed east. The 11-15 day trough looks a little sharper than that of the 6-10 day. The broader 6-10 day might mean less South. The deeper 11-15 day could deliver to lower latitudes, but the PNA will guide trajectory. Texas blue norther fading toward the Southeast, or Midwest hammer direct to Southeast? Tough to know yet. Precipitation is my usual. Probably rain except Plateau and Mountain leftovers. That's progs verbatim. Lots of cutters and post-frontal garbage which won't work out East Tenn. Things could change either direction. Precipitation in the extended.. That seems to work well in February. Sometimes even January. That Feb. Valentines Day snow is legendary, lol!
  16. nrgjeff
    ECMWF weekly charts are pretty benign, no matter what side one favors. The warm weeks 2-3 are already advertised in the ECMWF ensembles. While a loss to the GFS, it's no change within the European guidance. End of December is shown seasonable for the most part. Clusters are all over the place, common for week 4 where accuracy drops. Main takeaway is no endless blowtorch. Euro looks too cold in the Rockies, perhaps its snow feedback issue. Southwest low for two weeks? Doubt that. Early January (weeks 5-6) is so far out of the range of skill for these products that I will withhold comment. Slightly mild but mostly meaningless. Instead will need to watch sub-seasonal drivers which are indeed a mess, as mentioned in previous posts.
  17. nrgjeff
    I infer from Lezak's public forecast that the dominant pattern is the trough Plains, which gives 3-4 winter storms for KCMO. Secondary pattern is not discussed in the public forecast; however, the LRC usually has one. I don't have access to the subscription, though maybe I should. Anyway I figure the secondary pattern is northwest flow. That's less juicy your way but probably my only hope over in Tenn.
  18. nrgjeff
    Yeah the next big cold shot (11-15 day) may dive into the West first. Therefore a Midwest cutter would not surprise me. Note I'm skipping next week and talking 11-15 day. KCMO TV Met Gary Lezak released his public winter forecast. The really good stuff is behind a paywall; but, I can infer plenty from the KC forecast. He's cold and snowy in KC. Unfortunately that is a Plains favorable storm track, which matches much of what has been observed since September. Said primary pattern is cutters, especially bad for southeast Tenn. However a secondary pattern is forecast. He does not discuss it on the public forecast; but, his system has a secondary pattern. That's the colder northwest flow when our region could benefit. Especially true if split flow and a slider or two from Texas through Georgia. I figure all that good stuff is more likely Jan/Feb. Will try not to sweat a mild December. Pun intended? Only if we need AC at Christmas like four years ago, lol!
  19. nrgjeff
    Since I'm a Met I can't really throw rocks at the CDC folks, lol! UT would have beat FSU except those turnovers. I wouldn't worry too much this early in the season. Jax congratulations on the Iron Bowl! That is always fun esp when it's at Auburn. Kansas wins the Maui Jim Invitational. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Finally, jumped on some Cyber Monday ski lift tickets (Snowshoe and WinterPlace WV). Sorry if I cause a permanent SER now.
  20. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you!
  21. nrgjeff
    Lookout Mountain and Signal Mountain saw a dusting of snow this morning. Just rain in Chattanooga proper. Anybody surprised? Didn't think so. The only snowflakes I think I'll see this December (East Brainerd area) are the cheesy lights hanging on my house, lol!
  22. nrgjeff
    Saturday has more instability than Tuesday night's debacle. However Saturday low level winds look a bit veered. Probably be more interesting Friday in the Plains. At any rate Saturday would require some sort of meso-scale boundary set-up if those 850/925 winds don't back a bit on the models. I'm not counting on that. Good thing we have plenty of football, basketball and other sports this long weekend. Happy Thanksgiving!
  23. nrgjeff
    Yes we got flu shots. Mine may have mitigated a worse illness. I'm guessing this is the flu strain they didn't match perfectly, but better than nothing. Daughter was even milder, thankfully. Shows how the shot works differently for different people. Glad it did pretty well for her. Also remember the flu shot does nothing for a cold (different virus). Hopefully that puts the worst behind us for the season. In sports news Duke massively choked. Not sure whether to laugh or cry, since Kansas lost to Duke. Maui tournament rolls on with Kansas in the mix. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!
  24. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    If the IOD stays on full-tilt, it does kind of promote a Modoki shadow/imprint. However like pointed out above, sub surface is warm east. Perhaps most important, will be weaker convection when it's over/near Indonesia - thanks to cool SST anomalies. That's typically the warm phase, so muting it could help keep colder MJO phases.
  25. nrgjeff
    GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really.
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