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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    Les Miles to Kansas. Wow! Hats off to LSU fans. Lots of tweets, Geaux Jayhawks. We will take the support.
  2. nrgjeff
    CFS seems like a joke right now, but in fairness signals are mixed. MJO and the Kelvin waves are a bit muddled. Global wind is up (mild) but so is blocking (cold). At any rate I go with the colder ECMWF due to recent trends. Thanksgiving warm-up is now stronger again on Ops, but overall they keep finding more cold returning late November. Both weeklies have most of the precip in the Deep South. They show normal over our Region. If you like snow, that is a nice signal. Rain Deep South with the snow band up here. Remember snow holds less moisture; so, I really do not look for AN precip. On the other hand I may be manufacturing dreams from the charts, lol! More cutters are possible to likely. I believe the secondary storm track will be farther south, which is favorable. With some luck, that farther south track could be primary for a few weeks of the winter. Then we still have to play the familiar game, getting cold air in place. While managing expectations, I'm optimistic. Bottom line temps: I prefer the Euro weeklies. They have the Thanksgiving warm-up, followed by variable but average BN temps into mid-Dec.
  3. nrgjeff
    I wouldn't want to play Duke if they bring what they put on Kentucky. Duke can have #1 by the way. Jinxes Kansas every time, lol! Auburn can beat Gonzaga. Back to the Tennessee game, Tech played too physical. Maybe the refs over managed, but both issues affected Tenn.
  4. nrgjeff
    Griteater posted his outlook also in Weather Forecasting and Discussion. Sorry if it is already mentioned above. Grit is in the Southeast and includes more South discussion. Well I am now colder than some of the others, which feels strange. However I'm just following my interpretation of the clues. Been a few years since we had 3/5 cold winter months (Nov-Mar) and been several years since they were Dec-Feb. Guess who is forecasting BN temps Dec, Jan, Feb. I revised December colder, making it so in my forecast at least. I can't really post it here since it is for work. However I can discuss it. So I am -2 Dec -1 Jan and -3 Feb. Yeah I can't believe I'm typing it either. Yes I'm giddy like watching March basketball. Winter precip is all across Dixie early, even if not IMBY. Could if flip? Yes. However with El Nino and the blocking signatures I'll go: Trend is our friend.
  5. nrgjeff
    Tennessee Men's Basketball defense looks solid. Vols guard tight and occasionally press. Love it! Vols remind me of the Wichita St. team that beat Kansas. Hopefully we get to play next week. However we cannot look past Louisville and Marquette respectively. Tennessee D will be a real test for Kansas. I think the Vols are tighter than Michigan St. D from last week. Tennessee still needs to find consistent rhythm on offense. I firmly believe defense gets deep tournament runs. However one still has to score. Finally, who keeps playing Guns and Roses cold November Rain. Get it off the playlist, lol. This weather is just dreadful in Chattanooga.
  6. nrgjeff
    Indeed forecast cold periods verify colder. Forecast warm periods are less so. Blocking themes are often noted. CFS caved to Euro weeklies. November correlates well to December and even somewhat to balance of winter. Nothing special about November, no causation; but, the correlation due to likely common causes is there. Evidence for at least slightly BN temps winter overall continues to accumulate. These cutters should settle down a bit later into winter as the jet stream continues its southward march. One has to like an active weather pattern. Kansas had snow twice in the last week. Might not help Tennessee in the short-term, but I like it long-term. Active is good. Oh yeah sleet in Houston TX this morning!
  7. nrgjeff
    European weeklies have a possible pattern the week after Thanksgiving week; so, a little later into the end of November.
  8. nrgjeff
    Carvers is very on-point about the Euro weeklies above. I have little to add to the surface weather outcomes. Here is my take on the 500 mb clusters, and I will lean cool. Thanksgiving week looks mild from the Plains into the Mid South, and perhaps the Valley. However by week 3 (after Thanksgiving) the AK ridge tries again, might be other blocking. If so, it is a short warm interlude for Thanksgiving. Surface is not too cold week 3, but 500 mb is not that warm either. Week 4-6 composites are a mess. Drilling down the clusters helps a little. Majority clusters do not show blocking. However large minority clusters do have blocking each week, sometimes multiple blocks. I will tell you the surface weather if you can tell me the stock market, lol! However I will go changable. Bottom line: I like variable and agree with Carvers. PS. Don't take my silence about snow I-40 north as a bust. Figure it will at least Plateau and Mountains. However I don't have a prayer in Chatty. Good luck!
  9. nrgjeff
    Tennessee basketball is on SECN often. Unfortunately I get only ESPN and ESPN2 on Sling. Perhaps I should pony up for Sports Extra and get SECN and ESPNU/News. On the other hand Tennessee may show up on ESPN/2 more if the Vols stay in the top-10. I really hope the Vols do well for a couple reasons. Of course it is fun when the home team wins. Selfishly, more people would talk college hoops with me.
  10. nrgjeff
    GFS-Para / FV3 went with less snow. It is warmer, a bit of a cold chasing rain deal with the lead/main wave. Secondary wave gets snow at higher elevations. ECMWF is warmer, despite the surface low not cutting. Euro has northern vort max stronger, which as usual is bearish for snow. At any rate I like moving the conversation from Banter into Fall Spec. It is a real forecast now. Euro is not always right, so at least I-40 north can hope.
  11. nrgjeff
    Thanks AMZ8990! KU let MSU back in it, but made for an exciting finish. Duke and Kentucky decided on an NBA score, lol, also entertaining. Kansas is excited about the Lawsons. Thank you U. Memphis! Nice to have another big man with Azubuike. Grimes looks like another new star. Plus KU returns some experience this year. Jayhawk Nation is fired up.
  12. nrgjeff
    Great analysis by Holston River Rambler above; I have little to add to the already thorough objective analysis. Instead I will share my subjective thoughts. ECMWF is wobbling so the EPS probably has more reasonable members than the Op. GFS-Para (FV3?) is not as robust as the GFS-Op either 00/06Z. Perhaps the Para is the proper middle ground among everything including the Euro. It does not give the Plateau much but the Smokies are of course in the game. Mid-November just the Smokies is still a good look for our region. I've been posting about middle forecasts a bit recently. Saw a conference presentation that was quite interesting regarding combos. We all know ensembles beat ops. Even if a member is pretty bad, its combo with a good member still beats the good member alone. It does not match simple math or intuition. One must consider errors canceling out. So combining a model with 2% error and one with 4% error rarely gives 3% error. More likely, the combo error is below 2%! So, I go with the GFS-Para / FV3 this outlook.
  13. nrgjeff
    ECMWF scores another coup. I was skeptical too.
  14. nrgjeff
    Next week is an awfully cold pattern, with ECMWF backing. In fact the Euro has that look of a 'hidden' system(s) in the southern stream. GFS hinting. Guess just banter now though. Remember to vote, but don't stress over election returns. Champions Classic is tonight! My Kansas plays Michigan State followed by the Kentucky Duke nightcap. Can't wait!
  15. nrgjeff
    Highlights from this weekend. Went to South Cumberland SP / Savage Gulf Natural Area, Tenn. Also some from above Dalton, GA and around Chattanooga. I heard Fall Creek Falls and the Ocoee areas were excellent. Can't be everywhere at once, like storm chasing LOL.
  16. nrgjeff
    EPS certainly turned sharply colder, along with the GFS and even stubborn CFS. Seems the upper pattern prevailed. A mild period around Thanksgiving would not surprise me. However I think the CFS is still too warm. Prefer the Euro ECMWF weeklies. Warmer CFS may be rushing the MJO into warmer phases; then, keeping it there. Euro does better with most phases of the MJO, including these. I prefer the slower return to mild and a shorter mild period at that. With the clouds forecast the rest of this week, esp brutal at time change, I am already not sure if I like El Nino. Keep reminding me the winter pattern may be good.
  17. nrgjeff
    I also noticed the ECMWF Euro monthly charts keep a cold upper-level pattern Dec-Feb. Surface does not respond as much on the new run. Hmm, where have we seen that before? November EPS, lol! ECMWF monthly clusters shed some light. Dec/Jan both have a warm cluster of about 1/3 of the members. Take it out, and surface temps average BN. In fairness, take out the cold cluster and... We're not talking about warm crap, lol! With El Nino developing and early signs the stratosphere might want to play, I see no reason to deviate from slightly BN temps. I was never very cold. Probably not wall-to-wall cold either. Could be a thaw somewhere in December or January. Finally I do like Rays Weather. Surely he's a Met. Main thing is he has a skiers / riders focus for the NC Highcountry. Seasonal outlook can be applied to Tennessee mountains. Finally the broader pattern discussion is valid for much of the Southeast.
  18. nrgjeff
    That hatched is back! Maybe within a QLCS but it is a tough forecast. Also, welcome Araqiel! Here is my take. Event is looking less like a super cell laden tornado outbreak. QLCS tornadoes are certainly on the table. As I type elevated convection is in progress over Arkansas. Late this afternoon it should become rooted and/or new stronger storms will develop in the Mid South and Delta including around Memphis. Those may be messy, but the only chance of a daytime chase. Rain should reach Nashville with late afternoon daylight, but I doubt those leading thundershowers will be significant into BNA. Appears the line actually strengthens into the evening hours after dark from Middle Tenn back into Mississippi; then, moving into North Alabama. Should be more straight line wind. May be a few QLCS tornadoes. Looks like JIT (just-in-time) moisture and perhaps not juxtaposed with the best dynamics; so, maybe Dixie can avoid a night time mauler. Toward 00Z the short-wave trough punches across with vigor; but, then heights almost go neutral overnight (vs falling). Explains some warmer mid-level forecasts. Dixie at night can overcome all that with a forced line. Just does not look like a big tornado outbreak - thankfully. CAMs offer 3 scenarios and I'd pick the middle ground. HRRR is quite robust overnight; one can almost see predicted QLCS spin-ups. LLJ will be going strong. NAM shows a skinny squall line that appears forced, and probably low-top. ARW (run or WRF like NAM) shows in-between. Strong line looks like it has straight line punch, maybe 1-2 spin-ups. No plans to chase. Sloppy storm mode and JIT moisture make an easy stay-home decision. Lack of daylight weighs too. Everyone be safe overnight.
  19. nrgjeff
    LOL I'd actually forgotten with whom I sparred. It's all good! Anyway one path to the Raleigh charts would be that variable pattern. If I'm thinking warm Dec. but it is variable, then the closer to normal might verify. January is all about the timing, before or after Martin Luther King Day. The Feb. chart would require the variable pattern get stuck cold. The South winter is like a power hitter; I've said it before. If we can time a system or two right, instead of strike-outs it will be home run(s).
  20. nrgjeff
    Raleigh Wx looks reasonable, with the mild start and cold finish. However I'm not quite as cold any month. I'm warmer Dec. Near normal here Jan. Cold Feb. but not MB. I think Tweets are OK if they contribute to the flow, which that would have. My only gripe is when one barely understands the tweet and posts like it's their thoughts (not the case here). In this case Carvers offers his own thoughts on the CANSIPS, so the tweet embed would have been fine by me. Cheers!
  21. nrgjeff
    Weeklies, Ensembles and Ops are of course conflicted. Blocking seems to be persistent, or at least present a majority of the days. At the same time, global wind MJO and Kelvin waves want to promote zonal flow. That's what I see at the broadest level. Results indeed should be back and fourth where we live. Thank you all for the foliage reports! Chattanooga visibility improved today. In the last 48 hours things have improved markedly. Lookout Mountain and Signal Mountain look fairly colorful. No pictures; still cloudy. However, this weekend it is certainly time to hike! Everybody enjoy weekend leaf viewing.
  22. nrgjeff
    Novie is starting to look variable and choppy. Fun forecasting, um not really! Going between the warm CFS and cool ECMWF weeklies is more than a lazy compromise. Per reasoning above the meteorology also supports doing so. Could be a brief cold shot late next week, with more warmth after. Warm Novembers are not deal killers for cold El Nino winters. In fact a few recent Ninos had cold Oct, then warm Nov or Dec, before some cold weeks later in Jan and Feb. Since this is the Fall thread, I am seeing some encouraging photos over in Southeast/Mountains. Apparently the leaves are starting to change mid-mountain and Valley. Peaks were garbage. TVA and other social media also showing good stuff starting around Tenn. Saw colorful social posts along the Clinch River below Norris Dam, and at Fall Creek Falls SP. I wanted to try Frozen Head SP last weekend; but, weather/busy Sat/Sun and now figure it's past. Probably just go local this weekend. Lookout Mountain and Signal Mountain showing signs of change here. Anybody have intel on the Plateau or up near Knoxville?
  23. nrgjeff
    I'll go with the ECMWF Euro as usual. Either way it is rainy crap weather on Election Day. Consider early voting if not already done, weighing the next two days also. Halloween is today and looks like rain tomorrow (Thursday) which is the last day of early voting. I respect no politics on the weather board; we love weather first. Just a note on weather related logistics. Happy and safe Halloween!
  24. nrgjeff
    ECMWF Euro weeklies performance improved markedly in October, after a couple dismal months. Assuming it is accurate, and not just stuck cool, I believe it over the warmer CFS. The latter has reduced the number of warm weeks. Euro ensembles and weeklies kind of missed the Halloween warm spell; so, I hope that is not a warning of more poor performance. Weeks 3-4 clusters are all over the place, some opposite patterns. Chaos may continue. However I do not buy wall to wall CFS warmth.
  25. nrgjeff
    Yes it is classic down slope. Glad TRI is enjoying 60 degrees. CHA is dreary SEA.
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