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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Warm one-eyed pig continues to be delayed. Confidence is high it will happen; but, it is looking less like the monster it did before. I'll give it 7-10 days in mid-December. @Carvers Gap analog post is reasonable. Dateline convection is already trying to regenerate (cold signal), which would start to battle with the (warmer signal) convection farther east. MJO forecast is a mess, because the actual convection is in two clusters. Also, the AK ridge has been stubborn. AK troughs have tended to be transient. More broadly, even when it is not Alaska, other areas of blocking remain forecast in the Arctic and near Arctic. Finally, surface press is AN in much of the Arctic. My gut thinks the atmosphere is just cold for parts of the US this year. My only hard spot is little interest in storm tracking in the immediate future. During cold/stormy periods, NWP does not show cold air in place at the right times. However that could change esp a week out. Then the warm period comes through. After that it will be the heart of winter. Hopefully around the Holidays or shortly after things will get interesting. Wishing for snow.
  2. nrgjeff
    GOES-16 eye candy never gets old! Yes @Holston_River_Rambler cold hanged in the Valley. I might call it more cold air drainage from SW Virginia. Sometimes light winds will let it drain without warming on the way down. Happens going into Portland, OR (and other Pac NW) sometimes with high press anchoring the cold. We had a high press anchor Wednesday night here. In other cases the Plateau can act like a (micro-scale) cold air dam. Precipitation event a few years back (and others) the west side of the Great Valley was below freezing while temps on the east side got above freezing. One could almost call that in-situ, as HP was nowhere to be found in another cold rain day for Chattanooga. Still the Carolinas are the king of CAD on the meso-scale, bigger than our micro. They can have it. Much as I complain about cold rain, I'll take it over ice 1,000 times. If it's not a snow temp profile, punt.
  3. nrgjeff
    Saturday afternoon events Middle Tennessee and points west might luck out if rain can get out before events start. John I hope the Christmas parade works out. I've lost interest in thunderstorms; so, I will hope for fair weather. Appears severe starts Friday in the Ozarks; even more LOL with early sunset. Saturday dynamics seem to drift north of instability; so, rain here should be fairly benign. Rain timing should be in the morning many areas, including Mid-Tenn. Might still be afternoon showers in East Tenn. GFS is slower (wetter for Mid-Tenn) but ECMWF and NAM both push out the rain in time.
  4. nrgjeff
    Yes I presume it is Bays Mountain. Effect might be more concentrated with a more westerly component, narrow more intense band. NW wind spreads it out and it is lighter. The more westerly the wind, less perpendicular to the mountain, the more it can line up and converge well at the end of the mountain. If it were ever cold enough on southwest winds (unlikely with WAA) an intense band would set up flowing to the northeast. Again, it is just a hypothetical. Meteorology around here rarely if ever would support the scenario. IDK, anyone in Kingsport see something like that? I find Kingsport vs JC quite interesting in a wide range of cases, from these micro-scale events to the synoptic scale. Kingsport and JC behave differently on the front and back side of synoptic systems. I'm not sure which would mess with my head more, Kingsport gets the early start, but risks early shut-off. JC has to wait, nerve racking, but usually gets it eventually. Chattanooga is easy. Just forecast rain, lol!
  5. nrgjeff
    Keep calm, and listen to that chain as the roller coaster takes the cars up the hill. Guess that is not really a calming sound, lol! Anyway I'm going roller coaster December. I do not believe 4 weeks of torch. First it looks warm this weekend. Next week cold should verify. Transition timing is up in the air even more after 12Z runs, but it'll get cold next week. Fewer Deep South lows are shown, little disappointing, but we have discussed December is generally not our month for snow anyway. Middle of December looks warm for a couple reasons. Cold dropping into the West is a SER signal. We have a Kelvin wave trying to come out into a warm zone. Ensembles and weeklies pick up on the warm signal. Now I doubt the warm will last as long as weeklies predict. Yet another dateline flare-up is starting; and, it could be a cool signal. If it becomes another tropical storm or typhoon, it would strengthen the cold signal here. This late in the season the tropical cyclone does not need to be strong. Just needs to merge up with the jet stream off Asia. Two have done so ahead of and during current cold. Back to the weeklies, though majority warm, they have cold clusters starting as early as before Christmas. Cold clusters increase (still minority) Christmas week. I would not be surprised if the cold clusters become majority Christmas week. Then, the trend would be a friend. Will December overall verify AN or BN temps? Looks variable averaging near normal first 3 full weeks. That last week starting around Christmas may determine the outcome. Regardless, plenty of cold Oct/Novie and warm December have been cold Jan/Feb. This snow lover has no concerns attm. UPDATE: Forgot to mention, I love the one-eyed pig. Huge LOL!
  6. nrgjeff
    Wake convergence appears to be the driver. Drag of the mountain causes low level winds to slow next to it; keep ambient wind speed farther off to the sides. So the winds try to curve around the mountain and meet up in the wake. The meeting causes low level convergence. Viola! Snow. Bernoulli Effect could add to the curve around, with the speed-up phenomenon occurring just outside the friction zone. At any rate, I also remember seeing this last year. Enjoy!
  7. nrgjeff
    It is that time of year! Using my Kansas City, Country Club Plaza, Christmas Lights picture! Took my daughter to see them for her very first time this Thanksgiving. We also saw the Mayor's Christmas Tree lighting at Crown Center, which is close to the Plaza. The said area of KCMO is like Buckhead, Lennox, Phipps in Atlanta. I can't afford to shop there but I love the lights! We also saw Union Station KCMO which was my first time too! Major revitalization was about 10 years ago when I was down in Texas. The Plaza is my favorite though because it is my childhood now shared with my own daughter. She liked the tree lighting at Crown Center. After the long drive both felt like 2 cyclical tornadoes in May. Well, it is kind of apples and oranges, lol! Agree with others the UT/KU game the Refs were too involved. Seeing Williams and Azubuike (Doke nickname) finish OT would have been special. On the other hand, despite his excellent FG%, Doke can't shoot free-throws so we might have sat him at the end anyway. KU is lucky to have back-up not recovering from injury in Lawson. @Greyhound those seats are amazing! Kansas will and should be number one thanks to a more robust schedule to-date compared to Gonzaga. The Zags are for real this year, but Kansas has the resume to-date. Chattanooga has Rock City and Kansas City has the Plaza. Frankly I think both beat Buckhead in ATL.
  8. nrgjeff
    ECMWF remains consistent with a chance of severe weather Friday night and Saturday from the Mid-South to the eastern Tennessee Valley. Many details need to work out from instability to short-wave timing. Looks like multiple waves, which can giveth or taketh away. I infer from the text SPC really wants to outlook Saturday, but I agree it would be hard to place the 15%. Too early to worry for those who dislike severe. Just those of us who like it, we want to track it. Honestly, at Day 6, it is not any more likely than snow in Dixie, lol! PS.. I will comment on December after the ECMWF weeklies update. Maybe I should have stayed with Carver for Dec. Did I go cold too fast?
  9. nrgjeff
    I was in KCMO for Thanksgiving and enjoyed tracking the storm. Interesting that at 30 hours the ECMWF just schooled the NAM. I joke about the latter choking 36-48 hours out, but it should beat the Euro and GFS inside 36 hours. NAM finally caught on farther south by 24 hours out. Euro was first to sniff out the vort max keeping south. NWS did a great job going Blizzard Warning. Plains pattern recognition promotes doing so with a tight vigorous vort max and deepening surface low press. Then, how about some thunder snow? Little busy with family to post or look deeply, but I was following it. For safety we departed Saturday evening before it started, so I missed the real fun. Wish the blizzard had been a day earlier.
  10. nrgjeff
    Kansas gave me a little scare; actually, Marquette gave us a little scare. Second half KU took care of business. Tennessee game was good too, a little more defense. Auburn played Duke well, held up better than Kentucky. Then Gonzaga took down Duke? Really! Anyway Tennessee and Kansas meet on Friday. It's happening! If the cold pattern survives the long weekend I will have much more to say on the weather threads. Enjoy all the long- weekend sports! Happy Thanksgiving everybody! Safe travels if you do so.
  11. nrgjeff
    ECMWF Euro weeklies remain cold most weeks. CFS is gradually succumbing. Resistance is futile. Let the power of the dark cold side flow through. Happy for a Thanksgiving mild break, especially for Chattanooga's Holiday Cheer at the Pier Friday, much better and far more rewarding than shopping! Otherwise looks cold through early December. Mid-December the Euro weeklies show a mild break, which lines up with the EPS MJO forecast (at Day 14) so FWIW. Euro weeklies are cold again by week 6 (week 5 EIA Fri-Thu weeks) or about December 20. The mild mid-Dec and cold end matches that 1969 analog. Parts of the region had a white Christmas in 1969, but I don't want to get too carried away. Still fun enough that I've mentioned it in two threads now, lol! November is starting to remind me of cold years where the blocking just kept on giving more cold. We'll see, but this is a statistically favorable pattern to be in early if one likes winter.
  12. nrgjeff
    In a nutshell, Anthony is cold. Some of the threads are confusing, because he addresses multiple issues. His secondary line is that this is not SSW and is driven by the Troposphere. However that does not take away from his cold forecast. Sometimes I wonder if he is vague on purpose. It's a fire hose even for another Met, lol! He is sharp as they get though.
  13. nrgjeff
    Coworker used to have a Les Miles quotes calendar. I need to find one for 2019. Chiefs and Rams had a high scoring college type game. Regrettably the Chiefs could not beat both the Rams and the Refs at the same time. Tough assignment, but Mahomes almost prevailed! Finally good luck to both Tennessee and Kansas in the NIT Tip Off. Hope we meet!
  14. nrgjeff
    In addition to 500 mb blocking I like to look at surface pressure anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Started in a buffet line of bashing the SSAI which I still think is a bad tool all by itself. However the SSAI keeps coming back like Cousin Eddie. I believe a holistic (whole) look helps. Is Siberian snow due to a zonal active storm track (mild) or associated with cold air in place early and often (cold)? Note I do not claim any causation, but correlation can be useful. Forum has hit the 500 mb blocking pretty well. In addition surface press has been AN in much of the high latitudes. For cold I would also look for more BN surface press in China and the Lower 48 USA. However, the high latitude signal is there. Gin up some storms in China and the USA, and the surface press means may work out. In other news I have heard 1969 come up as an analog. I have no opinion there, but it was a white Christmas in parts of Tenn.
  15. nrgjeff
    Euro Ensembles seem to agree with that southern storm track in the 11-15 day. I'm jumping ahead of the 12Z package, but figure it won't change much. Looks like 1-2 try to cut but 1-2 slide south. Cold air and vort max tracks will remain a mystery until about 5 days out. I'm also interested in the weeklies tonight. Will comment on Tuesday unless I become unexpectedly free this evening, or the weeklies are particularly incredible. My Euro weeklies comments will likely go in December spec.
  16. nrgjeff
    Les Miles to Kansas. Wow! Hats off to LSU fans. Lots of tweets, Geaux Jayhawks. We will take the support.
  17. nrgjeff
    CFS seems like a joke right now, but in fairness signals are mixed. MJO and the Kelvin waves are a bit muddled. Global wind is up (mild) but so is blocking (cold). At any rate I go with the colder ECMWF due to recent trends. Thanksgiving warm-up is now stronger again on Ops, but overall they keep finding more cold returning late November. Both weeklies have most of the precip in the Deep South. They show normal over our Region. If you like snow, that is a nice signal. Rain Deep South with the snow band up here. Remember snow holds less moisture; so, I really do not look for AN precip. On the other hand I may be manufacturing dreams from the charts, lol! More cutters are possible to likely. I believe the secondary storm track will be farther south, which is favorable. With some luck, that farther south track could be primary for a few weeks of the winter. Then we still have to play the familiar game, getting cold air in place. While managing expectations, I'm optimistic. Bottom line temps: I prefer the Euro weeklies. They have the Thanksgiving warm-up, followed by variable but average BN temps into mid-Dec.
  18. nrgjeff
    I wouldn't want to play Duke if they bring what they put on Kentucky. Duke can have #1 by the way. Jinxes Kansas every time, lol! Auburn can beat Gonzaga. Back to the Tennessee game, Tech played too physical. Maybe the refs over managed, but both issues affected Tenn.
  19. nrgjeff
    Griteater posted his outlook also in Weather Forecasting and Discussion. Sorry if it is already mentioned above. Grit is in the Southeast and includes more South discussion. Well I am now colder than some of the others, which feels strange. However I'm just following my interpretation of the clues. Been a few years since we had 3/5 cold winter months (Nov-Mar) and been several years since they were Dec-Feb. Guess who is forecasting BN temps Dec, Jan, Feb. I revised December colder, making it so in my forecast at least. I can't really post it here since it is for work. However I can discuss it. So I am -2 Dec -1 Jan and -3 Feb. Yeah I can't believe I'm typing it either. Yes I'm giddy like watching March basketball. Winter precip is all across Dixie early, even if not IMBY. Could if flip? Yes. However with El Nino and the blocking signatures I'll go: Trend is our friend.
  20. nrgjeff
    Tennessee Men's Basketball defense looks solid. Vols guard tight and occasionally press. Love it! Vols remind me of the Wichita St. team that beat Kansas. Hopefully we get to play next week. However we cannot look past Louisville and Marquette respectively. Tennessee D will be a real test for Kansas. I think the Vols are tighter than Michigan St. D from last week. Tennessee still needs to find consistent rhythm on offense. I firmly believe defense gets deep tournament runs. However one still has to score. Finally, who keeps playing Guns and Roses cold November Rain. Get it off the playlist, lol. This weather is just dreadful in Chattanooga.
  21. nrgjeff
    Indeed forecast cold periods verify colder. Forecast warm periods are less so. Blocking themes are often noted. CFS caved to Euro weeklies. November correlates well to December and even somewhat to balance of winter. Nothing special about November, no causation; but, the correlation due to likely common causes is there. Evidence for at least slightly BN temps winter overall continues to accumulate. These cutters should settle down a bit later into winter as the jet stream continues its southward march. One has to like an active weather pattern. Kansas had snow twice in the last week. Might not help Tennessee in the short-term, but I like it long-term. Active is good. Oh yeah sleet in Houston TX this morning!
  22. nrgjeff
    European weeklies have a possible pattern the week after Thanksgiving week; so, a little later into the end of November.
  23. nrgjeff
    Carvers is very on-point about the Euro weeklies above. I have little to add to the surface weather outcomes. Here is my take on the 500 mb clusters, and I will lean cool. Thanksgiving week looks mild from the Plains into the Mid South, and perhaps the Valley. However by week 3 (after Thanksgiving) the AK ridge tries again, might be other blocking. If so, it is a short warm interlude for Thanksgiving. Surface is not too cold week 3, but 500 mb is not that warm either. Week 4-6 composites are a mess. Drilling down the clusters helps a little. Majority clusters do not show blocking. However large minority clusters do have blocking each week, sometimes multiple blocks. I will tell you the surface weather if you can tell me the stock market, lol! However I will go changable. Bottom line: I like variable and agree with Carvers. PS. Don't take my silence about snow I-40 north as a bust. Figure it will at least Plateau and Mountains. However I don't have a prayer in Chatty. Good luck!
  24. nrgjeff
    Tennessee basketball is on SECN often. Unfortunately I get only ESPN and ESPN2 on Sling. Perhaps I should pony up for Sports Extra and get SECN and ESPNU/News. On the other hand Tennessee may show up on ESPN/2 more if the Vols stay in the top-10. I really hope the Vols do well for a couple reasons. Of course it is fun when the home team wins. Selfishly, more people would talk college hoops with me.
  25. nrgjeff
    GFS-Para / FV3 went with less snow. It is warmer, a bit of a cold chasing rain deal with the lead/main wave. Secondary wave gets snow at higher elevations. ECMWF is warmer, despite the surface low not cutting. Euro has northern vort max stronger, which as usual is bearish for snow. At any rate I like moving the conversation from Banter into Fall Spec. It is a real forecast now. Euro is not always right, so at least I-40 north can hope.
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