nrgjeff

I have a feeling 2019 will be an active year. Atmosphere often tips its hand early. See if we can get a few more early days. Plains may end up being the most active, so I'm not mongering for Dixie. Storm track has been quite active. Low press likes to track over the Ozarks this winter. Shift that north later in spring for Central Plains action. Mid-South portion of Dixie could be seasonably active early while lows are still going through the Ozarks.

Looks like two boundaries, both in their CWA. Synoptic is north of MEM. Another sits south of MEM. Could be a fun afternoon. Still I agree with their reasons limiting the event. Probably just isolated gusty winds. Heavy rain is the other consideration.

Arkansas remains the prime areas IMHO. Obviously it is not chasable so I'm relaxing here in Chatty. Shear will be there. Instability depends on convective evolution. Few CAMs have cyclical supercells in western Arkansas, marching across the state. Others, like the NAM, have too much other stuff in the Delta. The latter solution cuts off the cells up on the boundary intersections in western Ark. Arctic air is another factor. If that air is right up on the boundaries, cancel supercells. What a mess. Must be February!

An ongoing severe wx thread is buried somewhere. Feel free to bump it. One can also start an event thread should the need arise. On the winter side, if that West trough settles in a little more Central and forecast it could get interesting. Otherwise, yeah track severe.

Sounds good to me. I'd rather travel to the Plains than try to chase Dixie. Euro monthlies have a chaser friendly look to May. BN heights Southwest and AN heights Great Lakes. Give me more of that southwest flow. QPF also hints dry line fires west of I-35 which is the prime chase terrain. Yes please! As for ENSO, one could infer the TNI is trying to set up right between Nino 1+2 and 4. However it's evolving from weak El Nino. Bullish TNI is usually from La Nina transition. We'll see though. PDO is also trying for a slightly better look.

Forget the litter box.. For southeast Tennessee, this winter is when the cat misses with the turd and sprays pee all over the room.

Welcome everyone to Severe Weather! In contrast to snow, I find severe wx easier to enjoy from afar. Snow you kind of have to be there. Severe can be tracked by watching radar and following chasers on Twitter or TWC. Scanner Radio is a good app to follow EM radio traffic. Now, here is how I forecast severe. Extended: I keep it simple. Look for instability and wind shear. Need temps and dews at appropriate levels (70+/60+). CAPE forecasts are available, but I like to look at temps/dews myself. Wind shear I want strong winds at 500/200 mb, preferably from the west/southwest, not really straight south. I need a strong LLJ at 850 mb, preferably south, not west. Need veering with height. Within 5 days: Starting looking at more levels in detail. Everything above plus 700 mb and 925 mb. Through all levels need to avoid veer-back-veer. Check forecast soundings. Look for a pretty hodograph forecast (long gentle hook or sickle* shape, no silly kinks). Also temperature profiles on the soundings. Might check 850/700 mb temps, esp 3-4 days out. Thickness can also shed light on cap, no cap, just right cap. 925 mb hints at lowest level wind shear. Looking for cold front, warm front, dry line placement. Do instability, wind shear and surface triggers line up? Within 2 days: Fine tune forecast. All of the above plus timing issues. Timing is everything. Also look for any rain interactions. Fine line between morning rain bullish outflow boundaries, and midday rain stabilizing things. Models offer more helicity and energy-helicity forecasts this time period. Still I check for wind shear myself by drilling down all the upper level charts. Same day I follow visible satellite trends and surface chart. * No hammers though. We're not commies! This post may be amended for a few days if I think of more stuff. Hopefully real-life will jog my memory, lol!

Regrettably the Euro has managed to kill the juxtaposition of instability and shear. One of many reasons I'd like to forget any 12Z runs ever happened. Oh well!

12Z Euro lights up Dixie Alley in less than a week. However it is just one run. If the advancing front is slow enough out of the Midwest, two waves are forecast in three days. Such a solution would give more time for moisture return ahead of the second one.

Hopefully the ECMWF finds some thunderstorms in the 6-10 day. I'm ready for severe wx season. Reality is a trough hanging out west for multiple days allows moisture return into Dixie. Bring out a shortwave, and boom! Once I take down the Christmas tree, severe wx season can start anytime.

Cheeseland is passionate about severe wx and welcome here. Note the smiley face. I was going to take down my Christmas tree MLK Day weekend. If it is still up Monday, I will also use the shutdown reasoning as a later deadline. Wetumka tornado is an unfortunate verification of the 5%. These things can happen with a dynamically forced line marginal instability. Most importantly sky will clear out in time for the lunar eclipse tonight! High clouds could come into the northwest quad of our Region but not a show stopper.

Saturday showcase includes thunderstorms. CAMs mostly line out the activity which is not a surprise. Line will be very forced with limited instability. Kinematics and wind field looks excellent. Rain and clouds should keep it a little cool though. If instability somehow verifies higher it might be worth a second look on a weekend. Otherwise the real show is the ESPN Saturday Showcase; lots and lots of good college basketball. Sunday evening should clear out in time for the lunar eclipse. Yes, back to fair weather chasing.

NAM raised snow amounts like it is playing catch up to the Euro. NAM still relatively lower amounts might be due to surface and ground temps. However right after Thanksgiving the Euro scored a big coup even inside the time frame where the NAM should prevail. Might have happened one other time, but I remember Thanksgiving more thanks to visiting KCMO. Looks like a big I-70 special from KC to STL. Everyone enjoy! And the Chiefs better win!! PS. Climate blog looks solid. More TV Mets should do that.

ECMWF and CFS monthlies both show April better than May. Fits El Nino climo. So I will look early and often in Dixie. Plains may be yet another crap May. No EML in the Plains means slop. If I'm going to chase slop, Dixie is a whole lot closer!

Bye bye severe wx season.

I remain bullish, slightly cold, for winter. Current El Nino is moderate, but it's only a snapshot. Two of the last three weak/mdt El Ninos briefly spiked strong before trailing off. Those were 2002-03 and 2009-10 both cold winters. Most recent weak-mdt El Nino 2014-15 stayed below moderate; it was also a cold winter. November verified cold eastern half to 2/3 of USA. It looks similar to 2014, but that year was colder to the East Coast. This year remember the cutter systems? Snow fans of course want that to end. Anyway 2014-15 was the last snow thump in Chattanooga. I'm quite comfortable with ENSO at the moment.

Saturday afternoon events Middle Tennessee and points west might luck out if rain can get out before events start. John I hope the Christmas parade works out. I've lost interest in thunderstorms; so, I will hope for fair weather. Appears severe starts Friday in the Ozarks; even more LOL with early sunset. Saturday dynamics seem to drift north of instability; so, rain here should be fairly benign. Rain timing should be in the morning many areas, including Mid-Tenn. Might still be afternoon showers in East Tenn. GFS is slower (wetter for Mid-Tenn) but ECMWF and NAM both push out the rain in time.

ECMWF remains consistent with a chance of severe weather Friday night and Saturday from the Mid-South to the eastern Tennessee Valley. Many details need to work out from instability to short-wave timing. Looks like multiple waves, which can giveth or taketh away. I infer from the text SPC really wants to outlook Saturday, but I agree it would be hard to place the 15%. Too early to worry for those who dislike severe. Just those of us who like it, we want to track it. Honestly, at Day 6, it is not any more likely than snow in Dixie, lol! PS.. I will comment on December after the ECMWF weeklies update. Maybe I should have stayed with Carver for Dec. Did I go cold too fast?

I was in KCMO for Thanksgiving and enjoyed tracking the storm. Interesting that at 30 hours the ECMWF just schooled the NAM. I joke about the latter choking 36-48 hours out, but it should beat the Euro and GFS inside 36 hours. NAM finally caught on farther south by 24 hours out. Euro was first to sniff out the vort max keeping south. NWS did a great job going Blizzard Warning. Plains pattern recognition promotes doing so with a tight vigorous vort max and deepening surface low press. Then, how about some thunder snow? Little busy with family to post or look deeply, but I was following it. For safety we departed Saturday evening before it started, so I missed the real fun. Wish the blizzard had been a day earlier.

European weeklies have a possible pattern the week after Thanksgiving week; so, a little later into the end of November.

I'll go with the ECMWF Euro as usual. Either way it is rainy crap weather on Election Day. Consider early voting if not already done, weighing the next two days also. Halloween is today and looks like rain tomorrow (Thursday) which is the last day of early voting. I respect no politics on the weather board; we love weather first. Just a note on weather related logistics. Happy and safe Halloween!

The increase in tornado activity on the Delta is convenient because it is flat. However that is just change (delta on the Delta, lol). The Delta is still a local min within Dixie Alley. Maybe it will change.

Confidence is greater on El Nino after data the last couple weeks. I've been around but quite busy at work and home with activities. Also American Wx fell off my routine when it crashed for a few days. El Nino could still turn out basin wide, but odds slightly favor Modoki.

CFS is also on fire all winter. Both models may be influenced by generally warm oceans over the entire Northern Hemisphere. Perhaps the late bloom of El Nino will behave more like weak Nino; and, get us some winter back half per ECMWF.

Too bad the TNI may be completely backwards for severe next spring.