nrgjeff

Yes that was the band of CHA precip. I saw the BNA metro got nice bands too. Today/Thursday might feature some hailers in Kentucky. Just enough wind fields justify 2% TOR and maybe just maybe a small 5% West Kentucky. Friday the Marginal could turn to Slight if we can get a little better wind fields over the Tennessee Valley. Saturday has more questions than answers. Looks like a roaring MCS will slice through Missouri. Warm front should be in Illinois. The IL WF will be what's left of their CF Friday. I love retreating boundaries (that never scoured out dews south of them). Saturday problems include jungle terrain and possible huge MCC/bow. If evidence increases for discrete Saturday, I might have to chase.. I mean visit my buddy in Memphis. Worst case bust scenario: Beale St. Not bad for 2018, lol!

I am still holding in Tenn. Almost went to the Plains for early this week; and, apparently DDC is going to DDC when it comes to tornadoes. WY/CO also did their late May thing. Today/Wednesday a nice cell or two starting near where CO/KS/OK meet would not surprise me - but late. 700 mb is warm, but not too hot. Heights are rising this morning, but are forecast to fall again this afternoon with a short-wave. Boundary sits there. Low level wind fields should improve this afternoon. Thursday looks like the big shift North. Friday could be a nice event, but risk is mainly CF/WF if DL stays capped. Both days SPC forecasts looks reasonable to me. Chasecation thoughts: If one has two weeks and must schedule ahead, probably go last two weeks of May, or last week of May and first week of June. I think one week is not enough if one has to schedule ahead. While any of those weeks should have tornadoes, who sees every tornado? A good chaser bats about .333 so one needs more than a couple chances. One fixed week might not be enough. Best deal is a floating time-off agreement at work/home and go when a quality trough is forecast. Then one can pick a week with 3-4 chances. If not, then the two weeks fixed should offer 3-4 chances total even with poor troughs. Goal is 3-4 chances on the trip. Batting .333 odds improve greatly with 3-4 chances vs 1-2.

Monday I busted in South Georgia. Tuesday the best storm came right over my house by about 02Z Wed. We had nice lightning and thunder with torrential rain. Too bad no hail in tropical precip. Thursday nice mid-level winds and short-wave are forecast. Regrettably 850/925 mb is terribly veered. I know Dixie can give a little compared to the Plains, but this is a deal killer. 2018, sigh. Actually Kentucky should get severe, but probably wind/hail.

If a subtropical system can gin up 850/925 mb winds the Region would have a better chance of actual severe early next week. Odds may be higher Deep South. May 2018 is strange...

Looks like it goes for a robust Southwest monsoon too. Usually goes together with a soft underbelly of the summer ridge. I'll go with at/above normal rain this summer in the Valley.

Indeed the weeklies choked horribly for May 18-25. Trouble is those Gulf lows are probably too small to resolve for weekly products. West trough was there, but so were 2 Gulf lows. ERTAF stayed skeptical which is a huge win for them deviating from the weekly charts. UPDATE: ECWMF has improving wind fields next week, but still moisture questions. Exactly two weeks ago my hopes were up for the following week, but we punted on moisture concerns. Managing expectations this time around, but cautiously hopeful in later May climo.

Atmospheric response trending ahead of SSTs adds some confidence in the El Nino story for this winter. Main Weather Forecasting forum has a detailed debate, and I lean toward the El Nino solution. Subsurface is warmest Modoki region, but right now that detail is still in my wish-cast category. Again, I do think some kind of El Nino is quite possible.

Chattanooga media is starting to hype heavy rain this weekend. I know it is a holiday weekend, but I do not see any reason to forecast more than scattered afternoon thundershowers. What is media doing up in Knoxville? WPC official QPF forecasts are an inch, maybe locally 2 for a five or seven day period. No model is going higher than WPC. Alabama, maybe, could use a heads up ahead of the holiday weekend. Buth yeah I'm ROTFLMFAO about Tenn!! Let's see a tropical system develop first. Good luck with the wall of shear in the Gulf. A repeat of the last two ULLs is quite possible. Seriously, the tropical scenario is less likely than a garden variety mid-level to upper-level low. I know the Preds are out of the NHL, and the NBA is not March Madness, but the Braves are doing well. Too early before the All-Star break to get excited? So, hype fake weather! Skeptic that I am, I would not complain about a tropical system ginning up 850 mb winds. Wouldn't it be funny if the best flow regime in late May was in Dixie not the Plains?

Middle of this week looks like a doable 3-4 day stretch in the Northern Plains. Tue/Wed feature a LLJ somewhat backed approaching/over the region. Moisture may be JIT on Tuesday but should be there Wednesday. Note that 65F dews is enough up there. I will not attempt specific targets due to mesoscale details, but generally Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska and the Dakotas. Late this week SPC even mentions a short-wave for the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin Thu/Fri. Nebraska and Iowa could be involved. Best forcing looks north, but boundaries may sag south still with just enough flow aloft. Is the season over in the heart of the Alley? Time will tell, but it looks like the North is perking up even if it's a little early compared to climo.

ECMWF wants to put a tropical low over CHA at hour 240. I doubt it. However I am always looking for conventional storm chase opportunities. If a northern stream trough brings just 30 knots of upper wind and a tropical entity can get the 850 mb LLJ going at the same time, I'll take it! TGIF

I'll take Slight Risk for $400, maybe even ENH for say $200. Hoosier Alley Sunday forecasts have trended slightly better for chasing/enthusiast concerns. The 12Z NAM high-res radar simulation is notable at 60 hours, but in 2018 too good to be true. Still, evidence supports giving Sunday a chance. Surface looks to have adequate 68+ dewpoints, in contrast to the Plains struggling to 65 and mixing out to 60. Upstream over the South is humid, along with soundings up to 850 mb. Forecast soundings for ILX/IND look to hold moisture for Sunday. 850 mb/LLJ is a little veered, but not enough to kill the deal in Hoosier Alley. 925 mb may be less veered. An outflow boundary would locally enhance helicity enough to overcome the LLJ orientation. 700 mb looks just right temps. GFS is backing of all the midday rain, more in line with ECMWF and its parallel. 500/200 mb forecasts remain modest shear, plenty enough for May. However that forecast has to hold up. I am looking for any outflow boundary to stay north of I-70 out of the jungle, preferably north of I-74. Upper jet needs to hang in there. LLJ I'd like slightly stronger and/or less veered. If things can line up, Sunday could offer a severe weather surprise for Hoosier Alley.

The Colorado vs Kansas is a tough call, again Friday. Today Thursday I think is a pretty clear Colorado, though low odds. Anyway I will share a few rules I follow. Quincy please feel free to comment and even critique. This is a good discussion that could help many chasers. For Colorado I look for dews to hit 60. The book says 55, but 60 really increases the odds and even chance of multi-cycle. Of course the winds have to be backed. Temps around 80 is nice for LCL considerations. Temps above 85 either needs 65 Td or something to lower the LCL, like a defined outflow. If Colorado is 85/65, Kansas is probably primed too, so I'll stick with 80/60 Colorado. Next I look for an outflow boundary close to the Palmer Divide. Either one can produce. Line them up and odds increase. Ditto for Raton Mesa and the Cheyenne Ridge (WY) but the Denver Cyclone DCVZ is pretty special. Friday Colorado could go, unless Kansas storms cut off inflow. Kansas has dewpoint issues though. Out there I want 68+ Td. My Kansas criteria may not be met, but my Colorado criteria will. Kansas CAMs show an MCS following Kansas outflow, but any early sups quickly go mess. Could play Colorado, and hope it produces before the Kansas MCS gets in the way (of inflow). Oh yea, I do not get too into UH tracks. If leaning on CAMs I look more for a big supercell on an outflow boundary. Nice when the numerical and conceptual models match.

ECMWF and its parallel are finally starting to slow down for Saturday. GFS about to score a coup? NAM also slowed down more at 06Z. Storm mode is still in question with an ongoing MCS that is not forecast to die in the morning. However, in contrast to Friday, dewpoints will be there Saturday. Northeast Kansas is good chasing terrain. NW Missouri is even OK if it crosses the River, but be mindful of crossing well in advance. Plan ahead for both safety reasons and not losing the storm.

Agree a tropical cyclone (depression/storm) is becoming more likely. Euro Ensemble some members started having it a couple days ago. GFS forecasts 9 out of every 1, lol, but I think it was just too fast. ECMWF does appear to be getting on board. MJO is going into a phase that would support the solution. While it wrecked my Plains plans, it helps get rain in here. Guess I will settle for chasing rain bands east of tropical lows, lol!

One should include reasoning regarding why one agrees or disagrees with data.

We'll make it work, lol. I do have an ob. CHA airport only reported a quarter inch Tuesday. MBY had at least a half if not 3/4 inch. No precise gauge but the standing water lines up with .50+. I think the height weakness in the Southeast is a combo of the old (main) winter pattern and Gulf influences. That secondary ridge winter pattern may visit at times, but I think not often or for long. Two main pieces of evidence point me to the near seasonable summer. First the SOI and AAM are going in an El Nino direction. The split flow across NA is more evidence. Second, water keeps getting warmer off the Pac NW coast; could be correlation more than causation. Either way it's a not hot signal here. While we may fail to get nice fronts I don't see a scorcher. I'm looking for a slightly warmer than normal summer, most of that in June. Kind of humid, but what's new. July/Aug closer to normal, but that's still mighty warm. Adequate or better rain. Believe we just came out of the dry part of the old pattern. The rainier shift may hold.

On the plus side 2013 and 2016 were good chasing. We don't need high tornado counts. We need tight clusters, but I think everyone knows that. Just a rosy glasses reminder. This week I see the following targets. Thursday DCVZ would be my choice. Action is forecast farther north, but I'll take some geography to increase success rate. Friday could be the first true DL event of the season; or, it could turn into a cluster fast on sub-68 dewpoints. Saturday looks a little bit like Monday in Kansas (OFB); or, CF/DL farther south but with moisture risks. Saturday is still way up in the air 5 days out. Next week hints of a midweek shortwave are noted. Attm it looks like slightly less than Fri/Sat but it's also a week out. Could improve or fall apart but something to watch. Memorial Day weekend looks awful on the GFS ensembles; however, Euro/Cad have the door open for another trough. GFS is trying to latch onto some bearish Pacific forcing, but a slower evolution would favor the Euro/Cad. Time will tell. Nothing looks spectacular, but at least late May chances are there.

Regarding the GFS fantasy hurricanes, I still doubt it. This week we have a possible hybrid, more likely an upper low, coming in. If the 850 winds can gin up it might be interesting midweek. SPC does not mention it; after all, it does not exist yet. GFS 11-15 day fantasy continues. Again, I doubt a hurricane or even tropical storm. However, ECMWF and its parallel/beta both show a tropical wave in the western Caribbean day 10. Frankly day 10 is a joke on all models, but they do agree. I infer only a tropical wave or surface low (depression) at the most. If it approaches, I will hope for nothing strong. Just enough for elevated 850 winds. When the May weather pattern creates desperation...

While it appears May will lack a big outbreak, I see at least two chase sequences in the next 10 days. Thu-Sat could go from the Front Range to KCMO, with Friday the best day in between. Middle of next week evidence is increasing for another meandering short-wave. It might have better moisture without this Tenn. Valley bowling ball. Hudson Bay low, which clearly hostile, I think is less of a factor than this asinine bowling ball. ERTAF is depressing, but even BA in late May is not a deal killer if one has time and freedom to sniff out mesoscale features. SPC is clearly frustrated, a rare if subtle show of emotion. Those mets are there because the love severe weather. SPC mets are disgusted with this pattern too. On the other hand, when they say "relative to late May" I think they leave the door open for severe. I'm also slightly surprised they go Potential.. instead of Predictability... Enough of the psychology, we still have WSW flow over the Plains. Moisture is a question later this week, but I can deal with JIT (just-in-time moisture) in late May relative to before May 15. Middle of next week agreement on a short-wave is there. Day 10 details can/will change. Moisture may be JIT again, but looks slightly better. Also climo. No outbreaks, but I think 3-5 chase days will happen in the next 10. Might just be 5%, but doable. From The Martian: Might have to science the sh!t out of this!

Baseball meteaphor is great. The 6-10 day is no longer wretched, and a come-back is possible. However mesoscale features must come together, which will be 12-36 hour forecasts. The 11-15 is not a total loss. Looks ridgy, but another trough with a couple short-waves might attempt. If heights do remain AN it will be a challenge. Manufacture runs, small ball, bunt 2%/5% (TOR) strong, and the season may still feature some fun.

Ensembles have quieted down a bit. Choices ae force it in the next 10 days with a trough out West, but troubles in the East; or, wait for more subtle action toward Memorial Day into early June. At least last year we had the Total Eclipse to save a brutal chase year. Agree though, long range can and will probably change.

Overnight deterministic NWP kind of killed the mood. However, Ensembles and Weeklies still look good. Pushing back a weather pattern that eventually happens is not uncommon. Looking under the hood of both Ensembles and Weeklies, clusters show some excellent 5-day periods - even better than the means. Timing is slightly different on those clusters though. Takeaway is a flexible chase vacation is in great shape. Of course set dates may cause sweating. Finally, Indian Ocean convection is waking up which is a chaser friendly MJO signal. Still need to get rid of that awful Central Pac. convection though. I think it is on the down trend, but it ebbs and flows. IO also ebbs/flows, but it is making higher highs and encroaching on Indonesia (good). I use Kochi U. Japan http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/index-e.html to check out those regions.

Alex I'll take Convective Feedback for $400. Euro EPS had trended from 4 to 1 or 2 members of 50 showing it. Para EPS has always been 1-2. With a strong Bermuda high one would expect waves coming around. However they probably won't develop. Only chance would be development right close to home in the Gulf, which is just June climo. As for next week, yes a tropical upper low comes in. It is a Plains chase trip wrecker so I'm a little ticked off about it. After a hot start to the week, northwest side of it, showers and storms should increase each afternoon toward the end of next week. Despite AN April rain and yesterday, it's been dry a couple weeks. We could use the rain.

About 4:20 pm (Thursday) Downtown Chattanooga had quite the wind gusts with pea to M&M candy (plain) size hail. Got a few shelfies not worth posting. Pic above is much better!

You are golden for a few to several days starting May 18. Possible this coming Sun-Tue has a couple meso-scale accidents, but the midweek flow goes weak; so, I would not consider Sun-Tue a day(s) before the day set-up. Starting May 18 looks great! Looking ahead the 6-15 day ensemble charts are about as good as one could ask for in late May. 11-15 day always carries a bigger change risk; however, I'm fairly confident in another trough after the May 19 weekend trough. If both troughs offer 2-4 chase days, that's 4-8 chase days in the 10 day period. Odds (even batting .333) favor great chasing success!