nrgjeff

La Nina will fade out this year. We just do not know when. Later would be better for storm chasers. After May I no longer have a dog in the hunt.

Holston may be onto something with -1 NAO if it's coming out of a deeper NAO. We like to talk transition storms. Regrettably I cannot look into it more now. Bottom line, I think everyone is making good points. Nice!

Euro is pretty stout later next week too, but in the Deep South which is more favored by climo. I'm not sure whether to wish for that or pray against it. TODAY Mid South I am reluctantly staying home. Some CAMS - convective allowing (high res) models show lead cells. My gut says they will not be supercells. They are ahead of the best low level shear. If I'm wrong, it would not be the first time LOL. NAM and ARW versions of the WRF both have mainly linear. HRRR is the one introducing cells ahead, but I'm not biting. Plus I got two very important college basketball games on ESPN mid-afternoon. Also, that thing next week... UPDATE: Clarksville tornado warning had exceptionally long lead time from the NWS. Great job in Dixie at night! On a brighter note, Kansas is now the solo record holder for consecutive regular season Conference Championships!

SPC is amped 300 m2/s2 and strong tornado wording. They seem to like southern Ark. Probably for instability. I still like the low level kinematics near Memphis better. Issue will be getting things juxtaposed right (or wrong depending on your perspective). I see the main line starting over the Ozarks which is a no-fly zone - worse than almost anything this part of Dixie. Lead line might go near Memphis but too early for me to get there and probably before strongest kinematics anyway. Finally storm motion will be very fast, hard to manage. Given that Kansas is at Texas Tech mid-afternoon, and the game is for the Conference Title, I will not chase this set-up.

That radar hole is annoying. There are several towns like Natchez in which they could put a new radar. It is an active part of Dixie Alley. Anyway the Ozarks should go on Saturday. What awful chase terrain. Some models are more Delta, which is better chase terrain. However the slower/west solution is the stronger one.

Parameters in the Mid South have improved overall on NWP. Unfortunately for chase concerns, initiation is shown back over the Ozarks instead of the Delta. Now appears morning rain will lift north of I-40, perhaps to Kentucky. Boundaries should remain over West Tenn. Also back into Arkansas of course. Low clouds should at least partially break up. Wind fields look great. VBV is indeed less shown on NWP. Wish such overall robust kinematics, a little VBV would not be a deal killer anyway. Finally low levels look to back as the trough approaches. I expect Enhanced by Day 2 (perhaps update if not first one), but ENH should be it. Biggest issue is Ozarks v Delta. Welp, at least some good college hoops is on Saturday.

IRI plumes are a Total Disaster for storm chasing. They quickly fade La Nina. Good though if you don't like severe.

I like the SPC discussion above. If one does not like severe weather, don't worry too much. Low clouds probably will not mix out, especially with ongoing precip. The 850 level is really warm which would actually prevent mixing; it does not promote instability this early in the season. Wind fields look robust, but probably with some veer-back-veer VBV which reduces tornado risk. None of that is too important yet. My chips are on clouds and rain prevent big severe. Then for those who like severe wx, it's only February. A loss in spring training does not count.

Yes it is a fundamental change. Southwest flow replaces northwest flow. Of course cold air has to be in place, waves timed right, etc. Sorry I don't have the paper author and title, but here is an oldie but a goodie. February is still game time.

My best guess is April could be a short but intense window for severe. March could be tempered if this SSW causes delayed effect blocking and cooler than normal temps. If the ECWMF is right March could be stormy, but it might be too warm. While I'm fading the SSW hype, I also think the Euro is too warm. April we should still have the La Nina signature which is correlated to severe. If it fades then May might calm down faster than usual in Dixie. Note overall May will still be the national peak. If the Euro is right March will get going quickly; otherwise, looks like we just have to get through April.

Twitter thread might be better news for Heartland snow lovers than me over in Tenn. Wavelength may be shorter than the January attempts (me). See his whole Twitter thread about cold in general..

Kelvin wave may save the first half of severe season. Dixie is due for a whippin'.

Yes sir. Let us keep jawboning and maybe we can will a good severe season. We can do without human impacts. Just give us stuff to chase!

Latest Kelvin wave should lock La Nina for a few more weeks at least. Dixie Alley should have an active season. We go earlier than the Plains, so it is indeed time to make the call. MJO is creating massive heat flux into the Mid Latitudes. SSW may not matter. Peer reviewed research shows a weak correlation for North America; better for Eurasia. So, I will go with the warm ECMWF weeklies. Weeks 5-6 introduce a West trough with southwest flow over Dixie. That'll light it up!

Normally La Nina is bullish the entire severe weather season from Dixie early to Plains late. However this year features trouble from a southern Plains drought and possible transition toward El Nino. CFS keeps La Nina but it is horrible predicting spring/summer during winter. More likely Nina fades which makes severe wx fade. Drought would indeed favor east of I-35 in the jungle. Still May is by far the climo peak out there. Last year we posted some papers about all four phases (Nina, Nino, and TNI both directions). After years of skepticism, research is revealing some correlations.

Just need it to hold on until May for my Plains trip. If the Euro weeklies are right about weeks 5-6, action should get rolling in Dixie in March. CFS would keep things quiet longer. With La Nina still going in March I have to learn toward the Euro here.

We might be able to make 2018 even more boring than 2017.

The Lezak and Heady cycles have a period similar to that of the MJO. Some years are great and some are tough. Majority work out. They combine all methods - including their own - for seasonal outlooks. I believe it's solid. Well all need a beauty from the central/southern Plains and Ozarks through the Tennessee Valley.

Reluctantly went 1,100-1,200 which is a little light in a La Nina year. Dixie should get going early, but oh that damn cold signal into March. April could still go in Dixie and Hoosier Alleys. I have major concerns with the drought in the southern Plains. Please, not more of this Ozarks crap! Supposed to be there early, but I have nightmares of these charts in May. Possible quick decay of La Nina adds to my pessimism. Alas nothing lasts forever. Anyone starting stocks the last 15 years is frustrated as can be. Folks who retired off the 80-90s know better times. Everything comes back around. On the other hand what if we get El Nino by next fall? First high risk November 15, 2018 Dixie.

We'll probably get slammed once or twice. SER should become more of a fixture into March, regardless of NWP. However the subsurface is a disaster for Plains chasing.

Day 1 severe could be an ugly preview of all season east of I-35. Fading Nina and drought in Texas spells crap storm chasing. Still I hope one good week out there. Hope it snows in Feb. Super Nino torch next winter! unless the sun...

Just a preview of east of I-35 all season. OK OK it is early and supposed to be so right now. Just with fading La Nina and a drought in the southern Plains...

Need La Nina to hold on into May for Plains peak. Last year that crap out was a total disaster for chasing. Of course it was not a total disaster for civilians.

Well 2011 was a weak La Nina with snow in January and a warmer February. In no way would I ever joke about those tragic events. However I'm expecting an active severe wx season.

We are safe from severe for a while. However I love getting the thread going early and often! La Nina should get the South/Dixie going early and often as well. Plains would peter out if a quick transition to El Nino. It is all relative though. In the Plains even a BN severe May has opportunity. Last year is a good example. If one is flexible, I figure a good week will show up in May out in the Plains. I'm counting on it! Back here, looks quiet balance of January. We have cold snaps scheduled this weekend into early next week, and again at the end of the month and first of February if one believes the Weeklies. I figure the warmer middle and end of February (monthly forecast) would get severe going a little bit.