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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Mesoscale details are flexing in a pattern that acts more like June 2. In fact our lead wave is an MCV from overnight Texas activity. So June. Then outflow boundaries are strewn about. MD #648 keys in on outflow spit out from ongoing thunderstorms approaching Middle Tenn. New line going through Memphis will be able to interact with the said outflow boundary. I also feel like a more diffuse boundary stretches east through North Alabama into North Georgia, attempting to lift north farther east. That boundary could be left over from Thursday evening storms. While it has a couple more hours to destabilize, scattered storms are already developing that way. When the main line gets there it should have a bow shape which favors straight wind over rotation. QLCS spin-up or two might be possible. Otherwise, I think the diffuse boundary just serves to keep storms robust and straight winds strong.
  2. nrgjeff
    This weekend is going to feel cool after some muggy evenings this week. Then next week looks like overnight lows stay nice with near perfect afternoons in the 70s. Above normal heights North with normal South will be nice as long as we can keep it going. Brings ample rain. Keeps temps in check. Sure be nice into summer.
  3. nrgjeff
    Good day to review maps of the Palo Duro Canyon and the limited road crossings. 5% in the Panhandle. 60 hatched gnashing of teeth if one gets stuck missing the show or worse.
  4. nrgjeff
    This weather pattern would get us through summer without drought. Heights are only slightly AN and the latest front got through our region (though not the Deep South). Later in summer if the center of the ridge is north then t-showers can pop up down here on the underside. That's a humid outcome though. Fortunately we probably still have another couple months (at least six week) of fronts getting through.
  5. nrgjeff
    Days and days of Marginal to Slight risks on the Texas Caprock, at times up to Raton Mesa, Colorado. Anything other than the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles shouldn't be as crowded - Colorado or down toward the Edwards Plateau. Kid of wish I'd went out there this week. I try not to think like that. Travel chasing means one is certainly going to miss early season days. Nebraska last week is an example. Happy for those who got it; never thought about going myself. This week is different because it's multiple days. What once looked like fluctuating heights and cap questions, ends up being enough southwest flow aloft, with corresponding LLJ response each evening, and moisture at the surface. Activity should still be Plains centered this weekend after a trough spits out on Friday. Main trough remains in the Rockies for perhaps a couple more days over the weekend and/or early next week. SPC notes some cap risk on Sunday.
  6. nrgjeff
    Guess we get decent coverage of rain.. Referencing my post in the main spring discussion thread. Then the WPC discussion reads like something out of summer. Are we really doing this so early? National pattern too. Days and days of Marginal to Slight on the Texas Caprock. Crap! I should be out there this week.
  7. nrgjeff
    Yes hopefully we can get decent coverage of thundershowers this week. Except for this Marginal, which really reminds me of a lumbering summer front, it doesn't look severe. Anyway the ol' boundary should help Tuesday and Wednesday as well, esp southern Tennessee border into MS/AL/GA. Then it looks like next week and perhaps the first full week of May the Region has slightly below normal precip. I'm not as optimistic as the CPC. We'll get days but not many. Ridge meanders from the Plains to Midwest, which will keep fronts fewer. No hardcore SER so temps should only be slightly AN. That same pattern in the summer would allow pop up storms but it'd also be humid. Whether we like it or not it could be a preview. That said I figure we'll get one more cool trough sometime in May before we go balls-to-the-wall until August.
  8. nrgjeff
    Summer forecast you can take to the Bank!
  9. nrgjeff
    Twitter is now melting down because the hype casts will bust. X marks the spot for poor science, lol! It never looked like a classic sequence, just seasonable flow returning after the Gulf Coast scouring this week. Just seasonable certainly means some sloppy days. Easter Sunday looks like a glancing blow Mid-South to Midwest. Then it looks like rain gets in here next week, but I'm not sure how much severe. Big concern (Plains chasers) is we go from sloppy to capped, with few classic days. For the South that's sloppy to nothing. Much of that (Plains) depends on QPF this weekend into next week to set up (or not) the beginning of May. Drought Monitor has improved markedly but needs more work.
  10. nrgjeff
    Thursday may be the last cool morning for a while. But yeah, I still wouldn't plant tomatoes up on the Plateau. Weekend may have a late spring feel. Getting the weekend front south of I-40 will be a chore as the ol' SER perks up. Looks like next week the front finally drops behind the Sunday system. That looks like Mid-South straight to Midwest. Mercifully East Tennessee looks quiet Easter 2025. We have not forgotten Easter 2020. Then toward May the jet stream gets gummed up. Models are still moving things but slowly. Most ensemble members have normal precip. A few block out much of the Southeast esp GEFS. The EPS has more rain.
  11. nrgjeff
    I love the unpolished look to the radar and the graphics. Also the teletype back then. Keep it raw, like wild weather should be!
  12. nrgjeff
    Yes the center of the action should gradually shift north and west into the Great Plains. Southern season still has a few more weeks though. See if this weekend Plains system can hold together into the South next week. Then the far extended end of April forecast is very up in the air. Looks like decent flow is forecast across the Lower 48. Whether it's southwest flow (Plains) or choppy remains to be seen. Choppy version would be less intense but might allow rain into our region.
  13. nrgjeff
    Steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temps at 700 mb and above on Thursday may promote golf balls. Who moved the Masters north? Also the low levels of forecast soundings are inverted V which allows for some gusty wind. Valid Thursday April 10
  14. nrgjeff
    This April 20 severe wx system keeps getting pushed back. When did severe become like snow? This after Chatty got two nice snows, lol! Quiet weather pattern may be more favorable for star gazing and getting high on April 20. We'll see. End of April temps may get back to above normal. Seems like we get this mid-April cool snap every year. Then we can start Real Spring.
  15. nrgjeff
    Might be recharging for this afternoon. Wind shear is definitely there with the consta-LLJ. See if destabilization can happen both sides of the boundary. However I'm a lot more interested in Saturday when I'm free. Final wave ejecting is usually boom or bust. Wind speed shear will be plentiful. Turning with height is just barely enough; it will require backing at the surface. Also need a prefrontal trough ahead of that CF. Both depend on an Arkansas surface low for Mississippi chasing. Thursday MD Day 3 Saturday seems mostly synoptic front based. Need ENH across Mississippi but SPC might not be feeling the pre-frontal trough.
  16. nrgjeff
    Southeast Tennessee could have record high temps Friday. Then after the front..
  17. nrgjeff
    Tonight is a rare instance where the lead supercells choked off the line behind, rather than coexisting with the line or being absorbed. Probably just right (just wrong) flow angle crossing boundaries. Line doesn't catch up. Sups go nuts! Re Arkansas I saw some streams with radar/locations in corner put together like Zoom. Definitely different cells. Multiple damaging tornadoes were in progress. Can't link preview. I won't try to rate strength, but they were all big specimens.
  18. nrgjeff
    Even bigger dislike if the sand front sags south of one's location and it rains forever. But yeah record highs are possible south of it. Joy! Then frost next week! I thought the Plains weather was wild until I moved to Tennessee. The Valley is like, hold my beer! In between I'm looking for a proper trough ejection on Saturday. Probably won't happen. More QLCS trash. At least we have the SEC dominant Final Four!
  19. nrgjeff
    High Risk of a QLCS! I'll believe these discrete cells ahead when I see them. RRFS is on an island all alone. Then the HRRR today wants to go in Mid-Tenn. Low level shear is wild but the mid-levels are too warm. What's the MLB and NBA TV schedule this evening? Blue Bloods reruns on Ion channel 3.3 in KCHA. I hope my cynicism assures some who are storm anxious. That said, follow official sources if it gets hairy tonight!
  20. nrgjeff
    Well then. Looks like SPC is going with that gnarly RRFS which is phat supercells all over the Mid-South. We'll see. Training supercells part is pretty likely regardless of how discrete. Should be an absolute mess. Valid Wednesday (and night) April 2
  21. nrgjeff
    After the severe weather and flooding this week, weather pattern may turn cool and quiet for much of the rest of April. First of all Wednesday looks a lot like Sunday with Mid-South severe rolling into Tenn. SPC chart even looks like a copy/paste. Upper jet is stronger. LLJ will depend on wave timing. Ditto Thursday. One real problem with the LLJ, while fluctuating, constantly runs up and over a quasi-stationary boundary. WPC forecast QPF unfortunately could be reasonable. And now what might help quiet things down after the weekend.
  22. nrgjeff
    Yeah I'd rather bark at my TV both Tennessee and Auburn, than bark at cells going linear too fast, or getting blocked at the River. Charles Barkley had very deep thoughts about the first half and taking care of the ball. In the game of basketball, the most important thing is the basketball! Classic Chuck. Anyway, still not MDT. Just a huge wind 45% no hatch, lol. TOR is still 10% hatched. I agree that hodographs will enlarge this evening. In some cases lines can actually break up and go super. I'm not feeling it today, but QLCS tornadoes are quite possible overnight.
  23. nrgjeff
    That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck! Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features.
  24. nrgjeff
    Virtual Target: Hayti MO. Today isn't worth a 6-hour drive though. Sagging synoptic boundary will be approaching. Key is the secondary boundary that should develop from the MO Bootheel east into Tenn. Cells riding it are favored. Trouble is few River crossings. Who wants to get stuck at the Mississippi River with no crossing? Morning wave should exit the target area in time for subtle lift from the evening wave by 00Z. Late start is also suboptimal for chasing. However the midday subsidence will promote ample heating. Dewpoints should hold steady. Near ideal upper-level jet noses in at the right time. Biggest inhibitor of a higher Outlook Category is the slow response of the LLJ. That's related to the lead wave jacking the wind fields. Great news for the storm anxious. No Moderate I figure. That said it could be a bit windy overnight. Straight line wind 45% but no hatch to avoid the MDT. If SPC upgrades check and see if it's for straight wind. Meanwhile the Elite Eight looks like more elite hoops today!
  25. nrgjeff
    Thank you @jaxjagman we can talk about it in here because it impacts forecast accuracy. It’s not really political. Biggest immediate concern is only one ballon a day from some Northern Plains locations vs the usual twice a day. That will hurt NWP performance. Then all the other staffing issues are awful too. We shall improvise, adapt, overcome. And watch Heartbreak Ridge, ha!
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