nrgjeff
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Everything posted by nrgjeff
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GFS is like those Choose Your Own Adventure books. Remember those growing up? They are awesome books. For a weather model, not really.
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China Met Admin is going fairly mild for China this winter. If the current wavelength holds (Asia Bering North American) ABNA the USA could be mild too. Of course different wavelengths and MJO pulses will add variability. Like right now, brrrr.
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Yuge college football weekend! Tennessee will beat UK I believe. Alabama and LSU is kind of like forecasting snow with a 540 thickness. In Chattanooga that's only 50/50, lol!
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
nrgjeff replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Looks like you had awesome color this year. I got apathetic with the drought; but, should have known spring was rainy so all is good. Congrats to all who scored fantastic foliage! Now it looks cold through November. Anybody heard anything about NC ski areas opening dates? Thank you! -
Snow in October. That's bearish winter right? LOL Weeklies both agree warm back half of November. Cancel winter. Just kidding! It's banter.
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Oh lovely. Anything really happening up that way? How much wind is really mixing down? Appreciate ground reports.
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PDO is trying to drop. If it continues it'll be hard to get Nino 1-2 to warm up. Modoki could be wasted on -WPO instead of -EPO. Mild and wet SE? Still lots of grand solar min talk. Big blocking could be wasted on an out of phase PNA. Good to be in the Plains though.
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Sure enough MEM damage survey rates EF-1. Little drama for the Mid South to round out an active 12 hours starting back in OK/AR and of course Dallas.
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Sunday afternoon SPC gave the Monday outlook a haircut. Probably valid. LLJ weakens going into eveing. That's just ugly. One looks for it to strengthen going into evening. HRRR has stuff ahead of the line, but it's the HRRR out 36 hours LOL. WRF versions don't and I think I'll believe meh for HSV to CHA. Wake me up in May. Edit: Wake me up when Mahomes is back.
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Alright time to get serious* after two cynical posts today (other threads). GFS and Euro are finally lined up on the Plains Sunday. That's going into Ozarks trash so no travel for me. Monday could go in the Lower Miss Valley into the Tennessee Valley if everything lined up. Turning with height has improved over previously forecast junk hodos. Moisture is there. Probably have an ongoing line of storms in progress. That would keep things mainly wind. While I'm not too excited about Monday, it's a whole lot more exciting than praying the October weather pattern somehow holds on into November. Think KC Chiefs blowing leads. Kills my optimism about anything. *Sorry I guess it's all relative, lol!
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Japan always goes blue Southeast US. Probably not that cold here. Unfortunately climate change is killing mid Atlantic skiing as badly as it is Honshu skiing.
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Aaahhh the post-frontal choke job!
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Appears CBS will show the KC Chiefs in Chattanooga and most of East Tenn. Hopefully I don't throw a shoe at the TV. Can't deal with another loss. I will stay warm winter if KC wins. Does look like another cold front later in October. Jury is out until November pattern shows itself.
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That hit was brutal. Hope the NFL levies heavy fines. Kansas and Tennessee fans counting down to basketball season.
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Rank snow black holes. Washington DC Asheville NC Chattanooga Tri Cities (without synoptic help) KC Chiefs defense
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Modoki won't help Southeast winter if the PNA is aligned to send the cold West. SER is my forecast.
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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion
nrgjeff replied to JoMo's topic in Central/Western States
Greenday, wake me up when September ends. Wait, it's October and still in the 90s! -
Yeah we won't see anything in Dixie. Another win for climo.
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ECMWF is saber rattling Dixie Alley 2nd run in a row. GFS is less interested. SPC seems to be leaning Euro. It's way out of climo. Dixie does not have the October rebound like the Plains. I'd like to see this for a few more days. Also the Euro mysteriously has the LLJ totally AWOL. Odd. At any rate it's something more interesting to watch than the SER.
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I'll start being positive when the KC defense shows up, lol! Although that surprise touchdown was clutch. To be honest most of my angst is related to the NCAA - national commies against athletes.
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KC Chiefs really pissed me off first half. I was wondering why I ever wished they'd be on TV here. Finally the game ended well for KC. Love to get Detroit out of their dome in Arrowhead, but we'll take the W there!
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I'm sad. Can we reverse the 3.4 and 1.2 and get some severe?
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Politics board sign up is broken
nrgjeff replied to RadicalEntity's topic in Forum Information & Help
So glad I never signed up, lol! -
Somehow we'll whiff down here. Great for Anthony up in New Jersey though, haha. Continue warmer than normal winter forecast. Oh I hate the sterile white board. No way to change? Looks just awful 33 and rainish. American Weather remains the superior weather board.
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I'm afraid in Jayhawk Land the buzzword is NCAA. Wake me up in May. All is see through April is bad news, fake UNC classes, and AN temps.
