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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    HRRR nailed the stubborn 40 in KCHA. NAM seemed to do better points north and northwest. Euro caught on so late it just gets partial credit. LOL at the GFS. Still rain Chattanooga Central Business District. Still figure it ends light snow (no stick) suburbs and even Chattanooga proper outside the Downtown heat island. That's OK we got ours February 8, that gorgeous Saturday morning.
  2. nrgjeff
    Yes new lift is coming out of the Mid South. One can deduce it on both satellite and radar trends. It's back of the cloud band, not morally ideal, but it's bullish this time. GSP NWS put out a late morning AFD that explains this upper feature. Of course they talk about sensible weather their CWA. However their discussion of a new baroclinic leaf coming out of the Mid South is quite relevant to our Region. Also the subtle surface wave has formed in South Georgia. Surface winds should continue to or maintain backing/northerly. KCHA probably still can't be helped, but others will continue to smile this event. Bottom line, I would believe those radar simulations for this afternoon.
  3. nrgjeff
    Whatever happens, it better not mess up severe season, lol! At any rate it may be the +PNA that saves winter. Relentless western Canada trough is finally ridging, while Alaska does too. All that is great through March; then in April, my priorities change sharply.
  4. nrgjeff
    Yes the GSP AFD is a good read. Even yesterday the forecast was always for the best snow in the afternoon hours today. So, really nothing has changed. Always gotta have the cliff diving stage before the happy stage, lol! Mountains are looking great! Lots of radar blind spots; so, let your heart not be troubled. New fine line on radar shows up Tennessee side. It's relevant over your way because it looks like the leading edge of more backed (northerly) winds to usher in / maintain cold air. Low level wave is just now developing in South Georgia. It's associated with the Mid South baroclinic leaf GSP mentions. New lift is evident on satellite coming out of the Mid South, back edge but it's for real. As the Emperor says: Everything is progressing exactly as I have foreseen. Difference is this will end better in the Mountains than it did for the Empire, lol!
  5. nrgjeff
    Appears the leading edge of more backed (northerly) winds shows up on radar. Reflectivty is on a previous page. Here's Correlation Coefficient CC out of Hytop. I've highlighted the same feature. Changeover aloft is noted well south of Chattanooga. Believe that's where the warm air about 800mb dynamically cooled. Surface changeover is highlighted again. Snow in Florence AL, up on Signal Mountain TN, and now dropping down south of Knoxville. Behind that line the CC is even more solid pink (more correlated all snow). Athens and Sweetwater may be the end of the south-ward march along I-75. Points south toward Chattanooga are at a lower elevation. Southeast Tenn will require a miracle (as usual). North winds must work hard to advect low-level cold; dew is too high. Requires heavy precip at the same time. LOL KCHA up a degree as I type.
  6. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Hope that's wrong. Totally backwards vs severe favorable TNI.
  7. nrgjeff
    Ways to keep life simple. 1. Forecast rain in Chattanooga and snow on Signal Mountain. 2. Go flat tax and index card return. Cheers!
  8. nrgjeff
    Next week is starting to look like Cutter City. GFS is still OK but many of its GEFS members cut. Euro cuts. Enjoy today!
  9. nrgjeff
    Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive. Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall? OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha! Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today!
  10. nrgjeff
    Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow.
  11. nrgjeff
    KCHA is already at season snow climo. Might go AN snow tomorrow! We are definitely playing with casino chips at this point. Along with record rainfall pace and ludicrous AN temps.
  12. nrgjeff
    That's unanimous on all 3 globals, USA CAD ECMWF.
  13. nrgjeff
    And the Euro is All Snow baby! Picks up on isentropic lift, though such charts are not available. However one can deduce it from 700 mb which finally shows WAA but steady/falling temps at 700 mb. As MRX says we will be under the right rear/entrance of the jet max. That's ideal in winter if the moisture is available. Soundings are saturated through a deep DGZ. Oh it's the ARW version of the WRF I sometimes like. NAM is still my most used, simply because more charts at more levels are available. So my head says a dusting for KCHA but my heart is now thinking 2 inches could happen. Probably improves north and east from here, assuming the precipitation shield makes it. Plateu and now parts of Middle Tennessee also look good. Less than 24 hours away. Mahomes Magic time!
  14. nrgjeff
    I feel the call of a Catalooche daytrip from Chattanooga! @Maggie Ace will they run the shuttle bus from Maggie Valley parking even if the upper lot is not full? I ask because I don't want to drive that road up. Thank you. Separately I guess I should take I-40 around. Figure the pass from Cherokee will be a little crazy. Maybe come up tonight, but need some other things to be canceled locally first. Weekdays are short lift lines and cheaper lift tix. Oh yeah!
  15. nrgjeff
    Now that I'm briefing people at work, time to get serious. Unfortunately I'm afraid @dwagner88 is correct on the previous page regarding warmer surface temps compared to Saturday Surprise 8 Feb. My concern is actually just the opposite of MRX. They go cold enough to start as snow, changing to rain. I'm thinking, stays warmer overnight than forecast due to increasing clouds. Building HP might help; but, I don't know. We're talking about the southeast the Tennessee Valley in southeast Tenn, lol! Enough precipitation starting as virga and evaporative cooling could actually bring down temps after it starts. One would hope for that inverted trough to back winds closer to north. Again the trough is not shown in isobars, just a hint in surface wind fields. It's not the 2014 or 2015 storms. Finally while the track, thickness lines and even progged radar have similarities to Surprise Saturday, the system is quite different. Saturday was a tight feisty little thing. This is a lumbering wave. True it's just right (greater than post-frontal junk, less than WAA beast) it's still a lot different. I'm sorry my optimism is fading. Head is going with MRX. OHX also concerned about temps. Heart is of course going with bullish GFS runs! Oh, and the 12Z NAM, hello. Cage Match thread title is just epic! Probably the best in our sub-forum all-time. So I have to add this meme. When snow misses Jayhawks, we go all WWE!
  16. nrgjeff
    John that was a great year, really both 2015 and 2014 for KCHA. My daughter almost forgot what it's like to have snow in town. Yeah I drove her (and myself hehe) to Calhoun, Georgia in December 2017. She really did not remember the 2014-15 snows in KCHA. And we snow ski every year. However just like us on the Board, for kids snow IMBY is something different and truly special. So, this Feb. 8 was really great in Chatty. Daddy daughter dance was the night prior. Then boom! Four inches of snow IMBY!!
  17. nrgjeff
    PowellVolz is right about the ECMWF trouble two Saturdays ago. Actually the systems do have some similarities. Both follow a first wave that pulls in cold. Both are greater than post-frontal junk, yet not WAA monsters. Really they are the pattern recognition I seek. NAM is probably too amped but I think the Euro is missing the wave and some isentropic lift. See my previous post. I'm guessing the 18Z GFS stays similar to its previous runs, somewhere in the middle. Look for trends on the 18Z or overnight ICON and Euro, hopefully less bearish even if staying on the light side. Finally, I had to put Darth Vader in Banter again. Cheers!
  18. nrgjeff
    Dear AFD Authors, RE East Tennessee snow on Thursday.
  19. nrgjeff
    Great post Math/Met. Inverted trough is the only way Chattanooga can get snow when surface temps are above freezing; otherwise, it's straight downslope hell. Indeed the NAM/GFS hint at a slight inverted trough in wind fields. It does not stand out as well with isobars. Hvward also makes a good point about the Spectral vs Gridded models this set-up (Mountains, SE sub) which was valid with the Chattanooga surprise as well. No major concerns/changes with the 12Z data. American gridded NWP sticks with sticking snow. Euro does not have much. Appears the Euro is missing subtle wave strength. This is not post-frontal junk. We have a true short-wave with isentropic lift coming through Thursday. Euro might not resolve the best early to midday isentropic lift. I get at that indirectly at 700 mb. Euro is CAA. Others are neutral with a frame or two slight WAA. That's going to also be isentropic lift. Rose/snow colored glasses? Maybe, but I'm going with American guidance. Possible the Euro is picking up on more strength in the dry northern stream. However pattern recognition favors the wave producing the upglide/isentropic lift. Pattern recognition favors the American guidance Thursday.
  20. nrgjeff
    Just got back from skiing Snowshoe, WV. Talk about lucky/blessed in an otherwise awful winter. Snowed up there Friday and conditions gradually improved with each night of snow-making. Alas, this is my home thread back at 500 FT. Gut likes Thursday along-north of I-40, plus the Plateau and Mountains. Wait, the GFS/NAM don’t have precip? A risk with such cold dry air. However that solid HP anchors any cold in place; so, it’s of course and overall big plus. ECMWF usually has QPF to/north of I-40; so, I think it looks good (NWP verbatim). System originates in Texas and slides to our south, my favorite track. Yes basic WAA precip. Should not cut with northern stream pushing (billiard ball meteorology) if the surface high ain’t enough. 700 mb temps look close to ideal. Trouble is boundary layer. Anybody shocked there? I think I said that before Chattanooga got 4 inches of boundary layer problems.
  21. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Hopefully we can avoid Death Nina SER. Japan model isn’t too bad. Most of the cool is south of the Equator. Is the PDO trying to take a breather? Better be after spring cause warm off West Coast makes severe season bo-ring! Now, that look could be nice next winter if the central north-PAC keeps cooling.
  22. nrgjeff
    ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it. High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never!
  23. nrgjeff
    Need ENH along north of I-20 from JAN to BMX, including MSU and UAH (latter or universities not airports). Temps/Dews are way ahead of progged. Meh soundings on models are worthless. Winds ARE turning with height. CAPE with lifting WF going into evening in Dixie. What could go wrong? A lot!
  24. nrgjeff
    Oh yeah that pesky inversion will add to the mountain wave event, increasing the efficiency of the LLJ crashing down the north slopes. Weekend of the 22nd is starting to look interesting on the Globals for the Plateau and Mountains. Could be for anyone along-north of I-40. Not much to add at this point. Now that Chatty had it's good snow, I'm really rooting for y'all up there! Oh hello 12Z Euro! It won't be that cold, but the attempt is good for winter lovers. Maybe a storm system instead.
  25. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Well that would suck the life out of severe. I place my order for cooler weather central tropical Pac. Keep warm east. TNI boom!
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