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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Euro weeklies are worse than the stock market action this week.
  2. nrgjeff
    Euro weeklies just piled on for a bunch of rain next week. Just awful.
  3. nrgjeff
    Euro retains at least 30 degrees of turning from 850 to 500 mb, and some runs it's close to 45 degrees. Speed shear is pretty much a given. If that directional shear verifies (tendency to get more uni-directional toward the day) and holds it could be a significant severe weather episode. Probably mostly Deep South though, not really our region. At least south of I-40. I was supposed to give up storm chasing for Lent, to keep me out of early season junk. Hmm, what else?
  4. nrgjeff
    Gorgeous in Maggie Valley! @Maggie Ace What's the chance Catalooche opens the Meadows? Friday night should over achieve, I hope.
  5. nrgjeff
    Don't underestimate the power of the Force, convective NWFS. Good luck! Oh MRX probably has more real estate and population up high; hence, the warnings. Friday night may do better than progged too. They keep drying out, but I bet the ski areas get more.
  6. nrgjeff
    He's wrong. Looking for attention. I don't see anyone by that name with credentials on Linked In. Currently the Milankovitch Cycles approximately cancel out each other. That's why Climate Science can more reliably zero in on the solar cycle and Carbon. The divergence is startling. Sun is sleeping; temps and CO2 continue up; and previously, they had always all 3 been in lock step.
  7. nrgjeff
    Tuesday 12Z Euro buys in for Day 8 Mid South. Winds turn enough with height, a new development, and dews are there. However it could fall apart the next 7 days. Either way I expect an active March. Trough in the west and Rockies.
  8. nrgjeff
    Above agrees with consensus on the Solar Forecast too. But if the Contrarian verifies, we already had our minimum. Head over to the Climate Change threads.
  9. nrgjeff
    It's not a weapon with only 2% fatal (greater than flu less than SARs). However it could be a virus animal experiment gone awry. China shut down. Less pollution. Something about the MJO. More cold in the Southeast US. China reopens. SER in March. Well, I doubt that, but we need to get back on topic. Thursday snow showers are looking a little better for the Plateau and Mountains; but, I think Friday night is more interesting. Friday night and Saturday still looks on-track north of I-40, Plateau, Mountains and probably TRI. Might even be Knoxvegas. We'll go snow dome BNA/CHA.
  10. nrgjeff
    Saturday Feb. 29 has echos of Sat. Feb. 8 for the Valley. Cold air in place instead of that JIT crap for starters. Models correctly default to no snow Valley climo. We'll have to watch it as it evolves. Full and partial thicknesses are buried. 850/700 mb charts have neutral to slight WAA while remaining cold. Little far out to look at soundings but what the heck? Deep moist layer reaches forecast DGZ. Just need some isentropic lift that zone, likely verbatim but Day 6. We'll see!
  11. nrgjeff
    AMS paper from U. Maryland has a contrarian view we may be heading into a major / active solar cycle. Hypothesis is solar storms dragged out cycle 23. This cycle 24 has been a little short in time duration and solar storms. Getting ready for 25 to roar out of the gates strong. Endless warm winters! Again it's just a contrarian hypothesis. But it would mesh with 2012 going into a warm 2012-13 winter. If anything can go wrong...
  12. nrgjeff
    Cold core surprise is possible in the Mid South still. Lows are stacked, which is helpful for that type of deal. However cold core is not my wheelhouse. Wake me up in April. Hopefully after Kansas wins the NCAA Tourney in ATL.
  13. nrgjeff
    Looks like the NAM and ECMWF did the best. They had sticking snow pretty well. They correctly blanked Chattanooga proper, but said yes up on Signal. However the Euro was too warm where snow stuck best. NAM was too cold in places. HRRR nailed the stubborn 40 degrees in KCHA. GFS was a debacle. HRRR > GFS like Warren beating down Bloomberg in the debate. I know we're not supposed to be political, but that was WWE folding chair regardless of your politics. I'm not saying I agree with any side, but that's what happens to Chattanooga every time cold air is not totally in place first. Time for the KU meme again. Save Chattanooga from the 40 degree chair!
  14. nrgjeff
    Actually phases 4-5-6 are still warm in March. I call those Indonesia or Maritime Continent. If I say West Pac I'm thinking 7-8-1 out by the Dateline. Sorry for the confusion. Maybe I'm not using convention. Speaking of conflicting signals, the ECMWF did warm up the 12-20 day forecast overnight. Oh yeah Indonesia thunderstorms flared up. Diurnal or a true KW? I hope only diurnal. Would explain all the diurnal model zig zags too. West Pac out by the Dateline is still going. Winter lovers can pray it dominates. Either way looks good next week. I-40 north of course! First storm may cut. Second comes in behind. That ought to be good along I-40 and points north. It gets TRI on both the front side and back side. That sequence won't work for KCHA; however, KTYS would have hope back side. KBNA is total crap shoot. Honestly BNA has been less lucky than CHA, which is wow!
  15. nrgjeff
    Yeah the JIT cold air is usually not in time. Kind of like moisture with severe. Anyway the HP was building in from the northwest. Better if it had been established north or northeast. That's playing havoc over in NC lower elevations too, trying to get that surface ridge to set up. That's a wrap for me. Happy for those who got nice snow. Chattanooga is reflecting on Feb. 8, lol.
  16. nrgjeff
    ECMWF weeklies concur with the above posts. 12Z EPS just out is not quite as cold 11-15 day with less +PNA; and, the weeklies are based on 00Z with quality +PNA. However they are both active and not warm. Tropical drivers include the IO calming down while the West Pac is convecting. See how long it can continue.
  17. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Yes those charts are not bad for winter. I was whining about spring severe. That'd work next winter for me.
  18. nrgjeff
    Euro is back on board. I'll stick with I-40 north, Plateau and Mountains. Should be TRI if that holds. Cold drizzle KCHA, lol!
  19. nrgjeff
    HRRR nailed the stubborn 40 in KCHA. NAM seemed to do better points north and northwest. Euro caught on so late it just gets partial credit. LOL at the GFS. Still rain Chattanooga Central Business District. Still figure it ends light snow (no stick) suburbs and even Chattanooga proper outside the Downtown heat island. That's OK we got ours February 8, that gorgeous Saturday morning.
  20. nrgjeff
    Yes new lift is coming out of the Mid South. One can deduce it on both satellite and radar trends. It's back of the cloud band, not morally ideal, but it's bullish this time. GSP NWS put out a late morning AFD that explains this upper feature. Of course they talk about sensible weather their CWA. However their discussion of a new baroclinic leaf coming out of the Mid South is quite relevant to our Region. Also the subtle surface wave has formed in South Georgia. Surface winds should continue to or maintain backing/northerly. KCHA probably still can't be helped, but others will continue to smile this event. Bottom line, I would believe those radar simulations for this afternoon.
  21. nrgjeff
    Whatever happens, it better not mess up severe season, lol! At any rate it may be the +PNA that saves winter. Relentless western Canada trough is finally ridging, while Alaska does too. All that is great through March; then in April, my priorities change sharply.
  22. nrgjeff
    Yes the GSP AFD is a good read. Even yesterday the forecast was always for the best snow in the afternoon hours today. So, really nothing has changed. Always gotta have the cliff diving stage before the happy stage, lol! Mountains are looking great! Lots of radar blind spots; so, let your heart not be troubled. New fine line on radar shows up Tennessee side. It's relevant over your way because it looks like the leading edge of more backed (northerly) winds to usher in / maintain cold air. Low level wave is just now developing in South Georgia. It's associated with the Mid South baroclinic leaf GSP mentions. New lift is evident on satellite coming out of the Mid South, back edge but it's for real. As the Emperor says: Everything is progressing exactly as I have foreseen. Difference is this will end better in the Mountains than it did for the Empire, lol!
  23. nrgjeff
    Appears the leading edge of more backed (northerly) winds shows up on radar. Reflectivty is on a previous page. Here's Correlation Coefficient CC out of Hytop. I've highlighted the same feature. Changeover aloft is noted well south of Chattanooga. Believe that's where the warm air about 800mb dynamically cooled. Surface changeover is highlighted again. Snow in Florence AL, up on Signal Mountain TN, and now dropping down south of Knoxville. Behind that line the CC is even more solid pink (more correlated all snow). Athens and Sweetwater may be the end of the south-ward march along I-75. Points south toward Chattanooga are at a lower elevation. Southeast Tenn will require a miracle (as usual). North winds must work hard to advect low-level cold; dew is too high. Requires heavy precip at the same time. LOL KCHA up a degree as I type.
  24. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Hope that's wrong. Totally backwards vs severe favorable TNI.
  25. nrgjeff
    Ways to keep life simple. 1. Forecast rain in Chattanooga and snow on Signal Mountain. 2. Go flat tax and index card return. Cheers!
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