nrgjeff

Yeah looks like rain now. Too cool for severe. Too warm for snow at lower elevations. And clooouuudyyy, yuck! Do Belize or Aruba take American tourists right now?

Interesting evolution after Christmas from the ECMWF weekly charts just out. Trough lumbers from the Plains into the Southeast. Will that be heavy rain, severe, or both? If severe probably Deep South or Gulf Coast. End of December isn't really our severe climo. FREE for all Friday update: GFS keeps jawboning severe Christmas week, including proper dewpoints Deep South. Jawboning is my other way of conceding it's still fantasyland. We'll see.

Another chance tonight. Note it's around 10% and only on the horizon from a very high viewing point. Looks like the pre-dawn kind of busted. Twitter is gnashing of teeth now. Canadian border got it, but the main CME is arriving later than first forecast. Arrival is now forecast during the late afternoon today. Could linger into early evening. So, get out in time for first total darkness. Comet NEOWISE style. Oh yeah, up on Clingman's Dome would be great to have a 10% chance of seeing anything. I doubt anything is visible from most of our forum area.

I approve that message. Since winter is going to the dogs, might as well look to spring.

Yes! We love our West Tennessee members too. I'm still recovering from the KC Chiefs ugly win last night. Well a W is a W, lol! Finally, listened to Tennessee Christmas by Amy Grant. Wishing for snow that does not happen. Intelligent song writing. Very accurate in Chattanooga.

Fun! Anybody flying into Knoxville today?

Awesome pictures this page! My November 30 ob is not worthy of the thread. At 3:55 pm Eastern snow flurries reached East Brainerd, Chattannoga, Tenn. So light it looks less like snow, and more like the Upside Down from Stranger Things.

Euro ensembles came around last night. Majority of members have a closed low in the 11-15 day. Weenie mode activated! ! 11-15 day forecasts are disputed and often change. Prepare for disappointment!

I share some of Fred's thoughts and concerns above. However I'm hoping it's not wall-to-wall severe. While I love a good Pains chase, I really don't like this crap in Dixie - especially trying to shelter my family at 1am. The pattern Fred describes is my secondary pattern for the winter and spring outlook. Trough comes through the Plains. Depending on the lingering SER severe weather would be favored in Hoosier Alley, Dixie Alley, or both. He covers the hemispheric situation. I'm talking the synoptic troughs. We saw this at times in October, but without much incident. Same deal in late winter or early spring would be impactful. Fortunately my primary pattern is the current one, influenced by the stubborn +ABNA. Warm northeast China. Trough Aleutians, Bering Sea, sometimes GOA. AN heights and temps much of eastern Canada. AN stuff bleeds into Great Lakes USA. Leaves the Southeast near normal heights. Temps would be above, but no big systems or low-amp troughs with moisture. Could be low-amp cloudy drink more coffee days. I'm one of the severe wx enthusiasts here, but I also got a family here and know we have some members who hate severe wx. While I do agree spring will be active, I have no reason to forecast anything historic. To quote Spann, severe wx is normal and we'll get through it.

Welcome @BrookeM and enjoy the forum. We have a Garden thread. Can anybody help with the irrigation question above? All I know how to do is kill plants with my brown thumb, lol! In true banter, I lament the KC Chiefs are once again not on TV here. On the bright side their defense can't give me a fourth quarter heart attack on TV.

Welcome @Blue Moon and jump right in! This sub-form Tennessee Valley of American Weather is one of my favorite places for weather discussion.

Researchers are notorious for throwing up theory on Twitter with no operational forecast implications. I read tight polar vortex. That's a mild signal. Maybe I just see everything as warmer than normal winter news. Some folks were asking/hoping the fire smoke would be a useful aerosol. Probably not enough of it, believe it or not. 1. Anthony is really good at operational forecasting, but can't share directly, due to his job. 2. Butler is amazing and will share implications occasionally, but only in her own threads.

Chattanooga was lit this weekend. Enjoyed a couple nice local hikes.

Actually @AMZ8990 my home barometer was sluggish. However I was too. Needed extra coffee. Four days overcast, or the pressure drop? Sun was nice by afternoon. Then the evening squall with CF almost impressed me. Usually don't get those with the Plateau slowing down things. It was just enough to remind me of a Plains cold front, though a milder version. Still, thumbs up!

I was sleepy AS so maybe the pressure, lol. My home barometer is an old one so did not really keep up. I should upgrade. Couple Halloween decorations face-planted. We will rebuild.

Olga Oct. 25-29, 2019 brought TS strength winds to West Tenn. Believe it was still designated TS or STS but greater than TD at the time. Back to current: Zeta caused a couple Halloween decorations to face-plant. We will rebuild, lol! PS. Dewpoints of 70-72 are quite frankly unacceptable in late October.

GFS and NAM have dews lower than the ECMWF. Enough rain on Wednesday would help prevent the higher dews advecting north. 70+F really is cruel and unusual punishment this late in the year.

Let's do it! I'm happy the Challenge will go forward despite the pandemic. Kansas at Tennessee will be close. We might not know the winner for a couple weeks. Just kidding! Last I checked the Champions Classic is still on for late Novie. However I think some of the bigger early season tourneys are cancelled. Big 10 fb starts this weekend. LOL that two of their teams have such high probabilities for the BCS. Really? They haven't even played one snap yet!

Next year we will do the Blue Ridge on Fall Break. Seems to go 7-10 days earlier than Tennessee or even the Smokys, timed with fall break. Those pics on the Parkway are stunning. Even the cloudy day the trees pop out. Here is Saturday October 17 on the Cherohala Skyway. Pictures are taken from just inside NC at about 4,500 FT. Higher was well past peak. Lower was green. Past weekend only a thin 500 FT section was peaking. We enjoyed that elevation quite well. I suspect the 3,000-4,000 FT area will be great this coming weekend on the Tennessee side.

Sports has been a disaster from Volunteer football to Braves base running. The only thing harder than being a Vols fb fan is being a Kansas fb fan. Poll. What's worse. 1. GFS extended 2. Kansas football 3. Atlanta base running Kansas and Tennessee fans look to NFL/Pro or await basketball season, and pray it's not covid crazy.

Ensembles and Weekies have settled on the hurry up and wait solution. Cold front coming. Just wait another 10 days. We can trust the timing. Halloween cold front is usually money.

Oh I saw a webinar yesterday about SSW and related events including early season, last warning, and something called reflection. I'm sorry I can't share it. However the reflection case resembles the ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern, which is also related to charts Jax shares including Asia and North America. All 3 tie in. Good stuff! Reflection is both horizontal and vertical. The vertical requires the stratopause be in a certain state. Warm energy from the West Pac Tropics pumps up a ridge in eastern Siberia. China gets cold. Pattern reflects a wavelength downstream over North America. Canada mild USA cold. At the right wavelength looking at Asia weather charts can help with USA forecasting.

Eddie Van Halen passed away. I'm going to be pretty bearish for a few days. Much above normal temps this winter. No snow. Nocturnal tornadoes.

Looks like MDT Nina. Oh yeah Jax our posts are three weeks apart. Definitely a different sequence. At any rate, tee up a SER most of winter. Cutters. Severe wx. SOS

That's good news, except for more of those snow clown maps on Twitter, lol! Euro at times gets even more carried away than the GFS, depending on the vendor algorithm. Baseball wild card was fun. Games all day like March Madness. Still have a ton of sports overlapping now with the NBA Finals, MLB playoffs, and lots of football. Ironic that after missing sports for several months, we now enjoy a huge sports period that started with the NHL and NBA playoffs. Now college football is full steam ahead.