Jump to content

nrgjeff

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,071

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    It's not a weapon with only 2% fatal (greater than flu less than SARs). However it could be a virus animal experiment gone awry. China shut down. Less pollution. Something about the MJO. More cold in the Southeast US. China reopens. SER in March. Well, I doubt that, but we need to get back on topic. Thursday snow showers are looking a little better for the Plateau and Mountains; but, I think Friday night is more interesting. Friday night and Saturday still looks on-track north of I-40, Plateau, Mountains and probably TRI. Might even be Knoxvegas. We'll go snow dome BNA/CHA.
  2. nrgjeff
    Saturday Feb. 29 has echos of Sat. Feb. 8 for the Valley. Cold air in place instead of that JIT crap for starters. Models correctly default to no snow Valley climo. We'll have to watch it as it evolves. Full and partial thicknesses are buried. 850/700 mb charts have neutral to slight WAA while remaining cold. Little far out to look at soundings but what the heck? Deep moist layer reaches forecast DGZ. Just need some isentropic lift that zone, likely verbatim but Day 6. We'll see!
  3. nrgjeff
    AMS paper from U. Maryland has a contrarian view we may be heading into a major / active solar cycle. Hypothesis is solar storms dragged out cycle 23. This cycle 24 has been a little short in time duration and solar storms. Getting ready for 25 to roar out of the gates strong. Endless warm winters! Again it's just a contrarian hypothesis. But it would mesh with 2012 going into a warm 2012-13 winter. If anything can go wrong...
  4. nrgjeff
    Cold core surprise is possible in the Mid South still. Lows are stacked, which is helpful for that type of deal. However cold core is not my wheelhouse. Wake me up in April. Hopefully after Kansas wins the NCAA Tourney in ATL.
  5. nrgjeff
    Actually phases 4-5-6 are still warm in March. I call those Indonesia or Maritime Continent. If I say West Pac I'm thinking 7-8-1 out by the Dateline. Sorry for the confusion. Maybe I'm not using convention. Speaking of conflicting signals, the ECMWF did warm up the 12-20 day forecast overnight. Oh yeah Indonesia thunderstorms flared up. Diurnal or a true KW? I hope only diurnal. Would explain all the diurnal model zig zags too. West Pac out by the Dateline is still going. Winter lovers can pray it dominates. Either way looks good next week. I-40 north of course! First storm may cut. Second comes in behind. That ought to be good along I-40 and points north. It gets TRI on both the front side and back side. That sequence won't work for KCHA; however, KTYS would have hope back side. KBNA is total crap shoot. Honestly BNA has been less lucky than CHA, which is wow!
  6. nrgjeff
    ECMWF weeklies concur with the above posts. 12Z EPS just out is not quite as cold 11-15 day with less +PNA; and, the weeklies are based on 00Z with quality +PNA. However they are both active and not warm. Tropical drivers include the IO calming down while the West Pac is convecting. See how long it can continue.
  7. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Yes those charts are not bad for winter. I was whining about spring severe. That'd work next winter for me.
  8. nrgjeff
    Euro is back on board. I'll stick with I-40 north, Plateau and Mountains. Should be TRI if that holds. Cold drizzle KCHA, lol!
  9. nrgjeff
    Whatever happens, it better not mess up severe season, lol! At any rate it may be the +PNA that saves winter. Relentless western Canada trough is finally ridging, while Alaska does too. All that is great through March; then in April, my priorities change sharply.
  10. nrgjeff
    Yes the GSP AFD is a good read. Even yesterday the forecast was always for the best snow in the afternoon hours today. So, really nothing has changed. Always gotta have the cliff diving stage before the happy stage, lol! Mountains are looking great! Lots of radar blind spots; so, let your heart not be troubled. New fine line on radar shows up Tennessee side. It's relevant over your way because it looks like the leading edge of more backed (northerly) winds to usher in / maintain cold air. Low level wave is just now developing in South Georgia. It's associated with the Mid South baroclinic leaf GSP mentions. New lift is evident on satellite coming out of the Mid South, back edge but it's for real. As the Emperor says: Everything is progressing exactly as I have foreseen. Difference is this will end better in the Mountains than it did for the Empire, lol!
  11. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Hope that's wrong. Totally backwards vs severe favorable TNI.
  12. nrgjeff
    Next week is starting to look like Cutter City. GFS is still OK but many of its GEFS members cut. Euro cuts. Enjoy today!
  13. nrgjeff
    That's unanimous on all 3 globals, USA CAD ECMWF.
  14. nrgjeff
    I feel the call of a Catalooche daytrip from Chattanooga! @Maggie Ace will they run the shuttle bus from Maggie Valley parking even if the upper lot is not full? I ask because I don't want to drive that road up. Thank you. Separately I guess I should take I-40 around. Figure the pass from Cherokee will be a little crazy. Maybe come up tonight, but need some other things to be canceled locally first. Weekdays are short lift lines and cheaper lift tix. Oh yeah!
  15. nrgjeff
    PowellVolz is right about the ECMWF trouble two Saturdays ago. Actually the systems do have some similarities. Both follow a first wave that pulls in cold. Both are greater than post-frontal junk, yet not WAA monsters. Really they are the pattern recognition I seek. NAM is probably too amped but I think the Euro is missing the wave and some isentropic lift. See my previous post. I'm guessing the 18Z GFS stays similar to its previous runs, somewhere in the middle. Look for trends on the 18Z or overnight ICON and Euro, hopefully less bearish even if staying on the light side. Finally, I had to put Darth Vader in Banter again. Cheers!
  16. nrgjeff
    Great post Math/Met. Inverted trough is the only way Chattanooga can get snow when surface temps are above freezing; otherwise, it's straight downslope hell. Indeed the NAM/GFS hint at a slight inverted trough in wind fields. It does not stand out as well with isobars. Hvward also makes a good point about the Spectral vs Gridded models this set-up (Mountains, SE sub) which was valid with the Chattanooga surprise as well. No major concerns/changes with the 12Z data. American gridded NWP sticks with sticking snow. Euro does not have much. Appears the Euro is missing subtle wave strength. This is not post-frontal junk. We have a true short-wave with isentropic lift coming through Thursday. Euro might not resolve the best early to midday isentropic lift. I get at that indirectly at 700 mb. Euro is CAA. Others are neutral with a frame or two slight WAA. That's going to also be isentropic lift. Rose/snow colored glasses? Maybe, but I'm going with American guidance. Possible the Euro is picking up on more strength in the dry northern stream. However pattern recognition favors the wave producing the upglide/isentropic lift. Pattern recognition favors the American guidance Thursday.
  17. nrgjeff
    Just got back from skiing Snowshoe, WV. Talk about lucky/blessed in an otherwise awful winter. Snowed up there Friday and conditions gradually improved with each night of snow-making. Alas, this is my home thread back at 500 FT. Gut likes Thursday along-north of I-40, plus the Plateau and Mountains. Wait, the GFS/NAM don’t have precip? A risk with such cold dry air. However that solid HP anchors any cold in place; so, it’s of course and overall big plus. ECMWF usually has QPF to/north of I-40; so, I think it looks good (NWP verbatim). System originates in Texas and slides to our south, my favorite track. Yes basic WAA precip. Should not cut with northern stream pushing (billiard ball meteorology) if the surface high ain’t enough. 700 mb temps look close to ideal. Trouble is boundary layer. Anybody shocked there? I think I said that before Chattanooga got 4 inches of boundary layer problems.
  18. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Hopefully we can avoid Death Nina SER. Japan model isn’t too bad. Most of the cool is south of the Equator. Is the PDO trying to take a breather? Better be after spring cause warm off West Coast makes severe season bo-ring! Now, that look could be nice next winter if the central north-PAC keeps cooling.
  19. nrgjeff
    ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it. High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never!
  20. nrgjeff
    Oh yeah that pesky inversion will add to the mountain wave event, increasing the efficiency of the LLJ crashing down the north slopes. Weekend of the 22nd is starting to look interesting on the Globals for the Plateau and Mountains. Could be for anyone along-north of I-40. Not much to add at this point. Now that Chatty had it's good snow, I'm really rooting for y'all up there! Oh hello 12Z Euro! It won't be that cold, but the attempt is good for winter lovers. Maybe a storm system instead.
  21. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Well that would suck the life out of severe. I place my order for cooler weather central tropical Pac. Keep warm east. TNI boom!
  22. nrgjeff
    I'm ready to see that MDT Red on the SPC charts instead of the WPC charts. Can it just be April yet? 12Z QPF progs are not quite as bad East, but still there Mid-Tenn. Trouble there is double whammy of daytime rain and then the squall line.
  23. nrgjeff
    We got almost an inch more overnight. Apparently it all ran off. @dwagner88 was I seeing things or the creek was almost up to the bridge by Food City Jenkins and EB Rd?
  24. nrgjeff
    MRX rightly is/has been more concerned about flooding. SPC has caved, lol. OK seriously, they did not cave. Shorter Term data not available or reliable at Day 4 shows the problems with the set-up now as we move in to Day 2. It's too damn warm at the mid-levels. Oh this wind field would be amazing with April or even March surface temps. Winds with height turn almost 45 deg. Usually Dixie has about 30 deg. Rooted supercells would spin up in a hurry, but... CAPE is hard to come by. They talk about low-CAPE high shear events. This is almost NO CAPE. Looks like skinny cape above 700 mb and questionable if any below. Lack of low-level CAPE juxtaposed (vertically) with low-level turning is a deal breaker. So, I have zero interest in chasing. I'm not really even worried about severe at home. I will be peacefully relaxing and watching Kansas at West Virginia. Uh, actually I'll probably be barking at my TV, lol! Actually the ESPN crooks put it on + which I boycott. OK, hope for severe!
  25. nrgjeff
    Rare High Risk and large Moderate Risk of flooding is quite significant for the South. Due to the high impact of this event, please share with your fiends on social media. Make sure the graphic comes up on the post. Date it and make it public too. (just change back to friends your next post.) I went through Thursday, though the High is through Tuesday. This is going to be bad from rivers down to streams and low areas.
×
×
  • Create New...