Jump to content

nrgjeff

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,232

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    European monthly charts are classic La Nina, except a little better shot at cold Jan vs Dec. Verbatim that's great for a chance at snow. Jan > Dec. Feb-April annihilate Dixie Alley.
  2. nrgjeff
    It will eventually come through, but might be limping and weak. That kind of cold anomaly in the Plains will usually bleed southeast even this time of year. My biggest gripe is the awful evolution of the trough overall. Not only do we get robbed of a true cold front, no severe set-up in the Midwest. Could it be any worse? Actually I should not ask it's 2020, lol!
  3. nrgjeff
    The ever slowing cold front. What takes longer? 1. Breaking a SER 2. Waiting at the DMV 3. Getting covid test results No I have not been exposed or sick, but I just could not resist number 3.
  4. nrgjeff
    A boundary cooking all day makes my heart wish I'm there. Terrain? I'm used to it in East Tenn.
  5. nrgjeff
    Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there. HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh. Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming... Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort. Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn. High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.
  6. nrgjeff
    Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol! Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable. Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too. If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go! Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck!
  7. nrgjeff
    And the 06Z GFS and both Ensembles hang up like the ECMWF. Do you know what happened? Meteorologist (me) promised / jinxed football weather, lol! Actually trouble could have started all the way upstream in the Western Pacific. Typhoons going west instead of recurving. Korea is getting slammed. US trough goes Central instead of East. Naturally the ECMWF picked up on this 48 hours before the clumsy GFS. Please do not re-post the picture. Thanks!
  8. nrgjeff
    Memphis had some drama Wednesday eve. They tornado warned Arkansas just west of town. Good thing it did not pan out. Heading right to the most populated area. Saw a nice shelfie on Twitter or somewhere. Clarksville also had a suspect cell. Never warned and didn't go severe. Friend sought out the base from Austin Pea U. Not bad. So, PowellVolz we have another severe enthusiast? Jax is another one of us. Everybody join us. You do not know the power of the Dark Side!
  9. nrgjeff
    Tuesday was interesting. Wednesday (today) looks like another possible Marginal to Slight upgrade. Similarities include a surface boundary in the region include CAPE (absolutely ludicrous humidity) and a CV / vort max coming out of Arkansas. Difference is surface is all veered off today. GFS/NAM keep it so. Euro 06Z develops a meso-low on the Ky/Tenn border that'd light up! PS the HRRR is doing HRRR things. Maybe 16/17Z closer to game time it will be useful.
  10. nrgjeff
    And now the CFS came around to the Euro weeklies with 2-3 BN temps weeks. I do like a warm October for fall foliage. Hard to get in the mood if it's too cold. Cool nights are great of course. Warm afternoons just make the day! Then for winter, hopefully we get some snow and Southeast skiing.
  11. nrgjeff
    I have a good feeling we will have a fall this year. European weekly charts (like ensembles) are a little slower on the cooler air settling in later next week. However they keep early season football weather around longer than previous runs, and longer than the CFS does. Keep in mind October is typically warmer than normal in La Nina years but November is then cooler than normal. Correlations are weak. Just noting in case October is warm, it does not necessarily last. Second half of winter is a different story, but let's enjoy fall first.
  12. nrgjeff
    Models have reeled it into the 6-10 day period. Looks like a Real Cold Front (RCF) tm middle of next week. Get a little break over the weekend. Humidity may rebound ahead of the RCF early next week. Severe weather would be fine by me. Then football weather!
  13. nrgjeff
    European weekly charts are beautiful. Looks like we need to get through next week. I favor warmer ensemble clusters that slow down the front. Either way I'm in agreement with good times after Labor Day. End of ensembles shows AK ridging. Weeklies both show Midwest to Ohio Valley trough. We take!
  14. nrgjeff
    Iceman: Tired of summer. Switching to fall. I do like the last few posts on the summer thread. EPS is indeed pushing a cool front through the Midwest to the Mid South. Can we get it all the way through? Probably so in some form. Looks a little hot and humid until we can get these tropical cyclones pushed out. Laura going west is going to behave like a warm front, especially in August. Midwest system next week may not quite be enough to scour out the airmass. However the 11-15 day period looks a little more encouraging. European weeklies are quite friendly to a moderating temperatures forecast. Looks at or below normal through about week 3. Gets us past mid-September before any aboves. By then slight above is fine, esp if not too humid. Except for late August heat, I will try to remember to post mainly in the Fall thread. Cue up some Ce Ce Peniston. Finally!
  15. nrgjeff
    Three years ago today we were eclipsing! No social distance. Gathered in big happy groups. Got blown away by Nature. Happy reflections! At least this year we had Comet Neowise, a minor but nice concession. Have a good weekend!
  16. nrgjeff
    European monthlies are on fire through the end. Literally it's every single month. Obviously that's wrong. I'd expect a cold month, or perhaps split in a couple two week periods, this winter. Otherwise, yeah I'm thinking pretty warm based on persistence and La Nina introducing a January thaw that goes straight through February.
  17. nrgjeff
    European weeklies came out and are not quite as hot as the Monday issue. They basically sharpened up the North ridge. Too bad for them! Leaves us down South near normal vs the slight above. So far I guess that's encouraging... Unless the road through fall has that North ridge settling into a SER in Sept/Oct. It does not necessarily have to go that way. The North ridge could just crumble as summer ends. Fingers crossed. Keep that crap out of here, haha!
  18. nrgjeff
    European weeklies just went hot again. Core heat is still North. Color me skeptical of four hot weeks here. Let's try two again, like July, otherwise North. I'd like to think if we pay our dues in July and August we get football weather on time. However I think we all know the odds. Probably stay pretty warm Sept.
  19. nrgjeff
    Oh wow that's beautiful! We hiked a short stretch of the Cumberland Trail with rock houses and water in which to wade. Oh but I miss the Rockies! Would love to go out there when the Aspens are glowing - never been that time. Maybe pull a fall Plains trip with Aspens on the down days. I don't know.
  20. nrgjeff
    Fingers of Death! Stranger Things! Nah I see that often when storms approach ridges. I think it's the extra lift in a humid airmass, added condensation. Harmless but very neat to film. They move.
  21. nrgjeff
    Thank you @PowellVolz for the recon. That's great we also stayed at Bearfoot on the golf course, though I don't golf in summer there. It's nice rentals and near good restaurants. Not quite as touristy as the heart of MB. South Carolina was smart to put in that express way so one can get to other parts of MB quickly. We'd probably go to the Gulf Coast in fall. Always playing games with the tropics that time of year. However I love the weather. It's not as hot. Sun is lower so less sunburn. Still warm enough and the ocean is plenty warm. Years past fall is not as crowded as summer. We'll see if everyone else is thinking the same thing. Only trouble is fall is past spout season. I'll pass on tropical. Just give me general thunderstorms, lol!
  22. nrgjeff
    I think that was trying @PowellVolz from the clouds. Spouts go on shear lines, not really sups as you know. You bet I'm always checking at the beach, lol! Another take-away here, looks like beaches are not too crowded. My odds of taking the family later this year just increased. Thanks both also @EastKnox for some ground truth. Both took excellent pictures too! I love a good storm after my beach time. IMPORTANT UPDATE: Chattanooga FC will be on the CW Saturday night. Believe that's just in Chatty but maybe some other CWs will carry it. No fans at Finley, but we got soccer again!!
  23. nrgjeff
    Nice picture! Is she your daughter? Precious! It's funny I never know where in life forum members are. I've a daughter who loves the outdoors. She's a bit older, is every bit the explorer too!
  24. nrgjeff
    I like it! All hail the guts to put out detailed thoughts months ahead. Agree December is probably the best shot at sustained BN temps, along with bookend weeks of Novie and January. ABNA index is another consideration. Keep a warm North and our source is wrecked. True Alaska / Yukon may be colder, but it'd have to traverse a warm southern Canada. If the Northern US lacks snowcover, modification kills the cold airmass. La Nina influences may show more later in winter late January and February. Yeah a SER would be a drag. I'm OK if it's sunny - better than cloudy and mild. Perhaps by November or early December we'll know a secondary pattern - and hope it is one that interrupts the SER. European monthlies are on fire January. Good grief! Glad it's the last month and pretty much zero correlation with actual wx.
  25. nrgjeff
    According to TVA social media, new trails are open at South Holston Reservoir. It is a new multi-use trail system. Weekend should dry out but it'll be hot!
×
×
  • Create New...