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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Looks like Iron Basketbowl II for me tonight. ESPN crooks have my Kansas game on + this evening. Does that mean wish for severe too?
  2. nrgjeff
    Oh that looks like help from downslope too. Quite obvious on visible satellite now. Chatty still in the soup. Good to know!
  3. nrgjeff
    I'm ready to see that MDT Red on the SPC charts instead of the WPC charts. Can it just be April yet? 12Z QPF progs are not quite as bad East, but still there Mid-Tenn. Trouble there is double whammy of daytime rain and then the squall line.
  4. nrgjeff
    We got almost an inch more overnight. Apparently it all ran off. @dwagner88 was I seeing things or the creek was almost up to the bridge by Food City Jenkins and EB Rd?
  5. nrgjeff
    MRX rightly is/has been more concerned about flooding. SPC has caved, lol. OK seriously, they did not cave. Shorter Term data not available or reliable at Day 4 shows the problems with the set-up now as we move in to Day 2. It's too damn warm at the mid-levels. Oh this wind field would be amazing with April or even March surface temps. Winds with height turn almost 45 deg. Usually Dixie has about 30 deg. Rooted supercells would spin up in a hurry, but... CAPE is hard to come by. They talk about low-CAPE high shear events. This is almost NO CAPE. Looks like skinny cape above 700 mb and questionable if any below. Lack of low-level CAPE juxtaposed (vertically) with low-level turning is a deal breaker. So, I have zero interest in chasing. I'm not really even worried about severe at home. I will be peacefully relaxing and watching Kansas at West Virginia. Uh, actually I'll probably be barking at my TV, lol! Actually the ESPN crooks put it on + which I boycott. OK, hope for severe!
  6. nrgjeff
    I didn't even remember who wrote what. That's funny though, lol! Yes I hope they keep the AFDs public. Surely they will always do them for shift-change and coordination with offices. I mean if SPC is public, surely AFDs can be public. I could just make a phone call; but, he thought of no AFDs has me... Back in the Panic Room!
  7. nrgjeff
    Rare High Risk and large Moderate Risk of flooding is quite significant for the South. Due to the high impact of this event, please share with your fiends on social media. Make sure the graphic comes up on the post. Date it and make it public too. (just change back to friends your next post.) I went through Thursday, though the High is through Tuesday. This is going to be bad from rivers down to streams and low areas.
  8. nrgjeff
    Sun angle IS brutal. Chattanooga winter wonderland was gone by 2pm Saturday. I want to say that I found the criticism of MRX inappropriate and uncharacteristic for this Region sub-forum. I did not want to say that in the Obs thread because it was such a beautiful day for some of us. Why ruin the mood? Figured I'd wait a couple days. Funny though, where to put it. It's not Banter but it's out of place in the event thread. Panic Room was a thought. Since it came up... I ask those without the degree to avoid unnecessary and near-personal bashing of the NWS or TV Mets. Might sound like a Met-snob, but this rare call-out is necessary. Once again I really loved the snow. I thought 1/2 inch (ECMWF qpf not sun issue). Hoped for 1-2 inches (US models). Bama magic came through for Chatty! Four lovely inches of snow and a whole lot of fun for kids of all ages!! It only takes 3 hours to make a season. The Super Bowl. Saturday snow in Chattanooga!
  9. nrgjeff
    Wrapping up with almost 4 inches. East Brainerd, Chattanooga, Tenn. Phat flakes for a while. Kids all playing. Glorious!
  10. nrgjeff
    Thank you all for the congrats. I'll run out of likes and thank-yous today. 8:30 Eastern. Chattanooga baby!
  11. nrgjeff
    It's Happening! Two 50 year events in six days. Chiefs win the Superbowl. Snows IMBY. OK 5 years on the snow sticking greater than half inch (forecast). Started about 7, sticking at 7:30 Eastern. Hope we have 2-3 hours of this. East Brainerd, Chattanooga, Tenn.
  12. nrgjeff
    Interesting point about low level moisture Saturday. One huge challenge is not super moist above 700 mb. Dendrite growth temperature zone looks weak, but some moisture. Now if we were forecasting severe weather, I'm all about the extra ground moisture. Those concerns noted, It's a feisty little wave. Figure places with terrain help will be nice. More notes added later: The Euro for Saturday appears a little low relative to consensus. Others have more qpf and snow, from more WAA aloft. Just a little more moisture up to 600 mb would be enough. GFS looks too amped, but I said that about the Euro for Friday. We'll see. Moving to next week, the ECMWF and GFS remain in sharp disagreement. So do the weekly products. The issue is MJO forecasts. Unfortunately the (currently mild) Euro usually wins those battles. GFS has advantage in only 1-2 MJO phases, and these are not it. That said, I'm in ski weenie mode after what just happened today and will happen tomorrow. Fingers crossed the GFS scores a rare win on the Euro next week. .
  13. nrgjeff
    Mood when it snows more than forecast. Today that's Plateau and parts of Middle Tenn.
  14. nrgjeff
    Chattanooga has snow flurries/showers in town that do not stick. However Signal Mountain above town is frosted. Lookout Mountain is less so, even though it's higher. Meteorology is what you expect. Weather is what you get, lol! I know 1-3 inches fell in other parts of the state. Pictures??? Pleeeaaazzzeee So happy for everyone who got a nice snow today. Looks above expectations in many places (LSRs NWSChat). Flurries is in Chatty is AE, lol! Few weeks back I busted an optimistic snow forecast up your way. Hope this makes up for it. Kind of like 2 interceptions; but, then 3 touchdowns. Yeah I'm happier than normal for others who got good snow. Super Bowl feeling continues baby!
  15. nrgjeff
    Snow is that Mahomes 44 yard pass to Hill that started the optimism. I'm happier than normal for others getting sticking snow. Must be a Super Bowl feeling!
  16. nrgjeff
    Good news for the Plateau, Mountains, and maybe Nashville. Both waves appear to be night and morning timing now. Gosh, when did snow forecasting get as diurnal as severe forecasting? Anyway seems like a dusting to half inch along and north of I-40, except that ends on the Plateau (inclusive of course). Upper Plateau and into Kentucky looks like 1-2 inches, locally more Plateau. Bad news: Great Valley boundary layer is still a no-go. Even Nashville looks better than TYS and MRX. I have trouble taking out TRI, but the models are not friendly. Tonight looks like cyclonic flow plus short-wave hybrid, decent moisture left over. Friday night and Saturday morning looks less juicy now. Southern Apps may get their turn though.
  17. nrgjeff
    Flooding might be worth a thread, or go ahead in the existing Flooding thread. Keeps this one winter. Then we got severe going too in that thread. Mississippi sup on the marine warm front as I type. 12Z Euro came in similar Friday and Saturday. Cyclonic flow aloft with short-wave Friday. Another wave from the southwest Saturday. Both look cold enough Plateau and Mountains.
  18. nrgjeff
    Lookout Valley west of Chattanooga, flooding on I-24 per Covenant Transport Met. I-24 was closed as of 3pm Eastern Wednesday.
  19. nrgjeff
    Enhanced risk for central Mississippi into northwest Alabama! Well Dixie has a funny idea of how to do an overnight rave. Jokes aside, I'd ditch the hatched but 10% might be OK. I'd introduce 30% wind though. But the HRRR! But the SFO run? OK back to weather. Both versions of the NAM temper things compared to the HRRR. NAM looks believable given all the cloud cover. However the marine warm sector has made it well north in Mississippi. North Alabama is still conditional on precip. I actually like the wind fields not pegged out, just seasonably strong. However the low level CAPE lacks. Don't take much at night in Dixie, but it needs to be more than 50. LI looks good because it is above the warm layer aloft. Figure storms can root for a couple Mississippi tornadoes this afternoon. Alabama might get to sleep well with just wind if it does not destabilize in the low levels. Believe the sounding is a bigger problem than upper level wind directions relative to the boundaries. It's a quasi-lifting boundary not a CF in the risk area. Either way, I think it's mainly wind. 2pm Central Update: South Mississippi supercell rooting on the marine later warm front. Other cells coming out of Louisiana may root in Mississippi.
  20. nrgjeff
    Friday seems to have perked up on cyclonic flow aloft, lingering moisture, and a little short-wave. Upper Plateau to Mountains is favored, along with well north of I-40. Boundary layer struggles continue. Saturday downshifted some models, probably because that short-wave fills with time. However the column is forecast colder than it was yesterday. Saturday looks better along I-40. Thickness, partials, 700 mb are all colder. OK it might snow a little in Chattanooga, but boundary layer likely denies sticking. GFS totally trashed the 6-15 day. Dammit! Hopefully that convection over Indonesia is just diurnal. If so the GFS got tricked like SFO celebrating early! If not, we are SFO and the MJO is the relentless Chiefs offense.
  21. nrgjeff
    Saturday has downshifted a bit, but Friday looks good NWF. Two small events, NWF and clipper ain't bad. Arguably it's even better skiing. Friday looks juicier behind the main rain. Plus a short-wave is forecast so it is hybrid NWF and cyclonic flow aloft. Saturday that short-wave is filling a bit, but the temp profiles look colder compared to forecast yesterday. Despite lower QPF, snow amounts are not that degraded mountains. I'm not sure about a big time snow chase; but, I definitely like the skiing. These NC ski areas are specialists in artificial snow augmentation after rain. It'll be fine. Still early on the track, Catty/Maggie vs Avery Co. Hopefully ALL!
  22. nrgjeff
    ECMWF both 00/12Z stays friendly for mountain snow lovers. Weekend mountain snow event might not be getting much NWS or media attention since they have to deal with the heavy rain first (over a wider area). Day 5 is a crap shoot in the South, except in the Mountains where terrain can forgive tracking errors. Vort max dives through the Plains and pivots Tenn Valley, not bad if you want a juicy clipper hybrid. 500/700 vorts are both at/north of I-40; so, lower elevations probably will be disappointed by a warm boundary layer. (Partial thicknesses are not as cold as total 1,000-500 mb). However temperature profiles and partial/critical thicknesses look great at elevation. It is a little early to drill down those charts, but again mountains offer a forecaster some cushion. 12Z Euro finally got to Saturday. Its vort max is slightly south and surface Ts slightly colder mountains. Hope this turns out to be great news for ski areas, both the operators and the skiers / riders. Snow conditions should be good, in contrast to other cold following rain fronts. If 3-8 inches of new snow accompanies snow-making overnight, it'll be pretty nice skiing and riding this weekend.
  23. nrgjeff
    Weekend snow north of I-40 (and perhaps along parts of I-40) looks decent this morning. Euro remains on board, and even ticked south overnight. Still awaiting 12Z Euro. I still think snow will not make it south to the 540 thickness line / 0C at 850 line. Low levels look warm and much of the event is Saturday daytime. 500/700 mb vort max still along/north of I-40. Finally, who believes Chattanooga will get snow? Shows 540/0C over town, but nah. OK, serious again, the more reliable output still keeps snow an elevation event for the Plateau and Mountains. However snow levels are a touch lower, and accumulation at elevation a bit higher. Surface HP comes in behind the system. Might get some cold enough air for BNA/TYS/MRX but it's tough w/o HP already in place and/or dropping from the N/NE. Tri Cities has a slightly better shot at snow, esp if some wrap-around. While it's a little early to drill down partial thicknesses, they are not as bullish as the total 1,000-500 mb thickness. They are almost as far south, but not quite. The 1,000-850 mb hints at warm boundary layer. The 850-700 mb hints at the vort max a bit north. Again it's early for that tool, and I only have it on the GFS. Looking ahead. Carvers offers a path to a nice encore. It could happen given IO Pac convection. Some is in a decent spot. However the IO is firing too. Depends when/how long that meanders over warmer phases of Indonesia. Also if any northern stream TPV energy fails to catch the West trough, SER will be stubborn. Euro is with Carvers. Fingers crossed.
  24. nrgjeff
    Saturday looks like an elevation snow north of I-40, perhaps limited to just the Upper Plateau and Mountains. TRI might get lucky, but currently looks like too much WAA up the Valley. That and concerns Carvers notes above. Thickness and 850 mb look right, but that darn boundary layer spoils again. Upstairs one sees the 500 mb and 700 mb vort maxima go at/north of the area. It's cookbook meteorology, but pretty reliable, that sucks.. the life out of the system. Sure enough 2m progs are too warm to stick. Exception would be a narrow moderate to heavy snow band. Always possible cool air gets trapped MRX north - even better for TRI. Current progs show nothing like that, but it's day 6. Unfortunately I'm fairly confident taking out TYS and BNA. I'm not even thinking about CHA. Looking farther out, watching the SER re-appear after some weekend modeling feels like probably how SFO fans felt 4Q. Too early? On the bright side, we KC fans felt like when a TROWAL surprises with big snow after starting as rain. Might be my only chance this winter to write TROWAL.
  25. nrgjeff
    Yes I barely survived the heart pounding come-back. Thank you all. KC Chiefs alleviated my winter malaise in about 6 minutes of Q4. Amazing end to a 50 year wait! Back here in the Valley, those snow slides above. Zero Chattanooga, lol!
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