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Thank you all for reports! I'm still catching up from page 5, but this is time sensitive. Correlation Coefficient out of Hytop shows the rain-snow line gradually sinking south. I've highlighted my manual adjustment. Close to the radar it should be right on. Ditto for higher elevations. Farther from the radar it's higher in the cloud; so, I manually move the line north. This is still better than most color radar algorithms. The big question locally, KCHA wall? OHX radar is solid pink. I deduce all snow up there if/when it starts snowing. It'll snow in Nashville and suburbs. Knoxvegas should go back to snow. CC rain-snow line is sinking south of TYS as I write. Mountains are already snow of course. Haven't looked hard at TRI qpf, but that'll be all snow if it does. Kingsport vs JC back-and-fourth cage match with folding chairs may be in effect, haha! Oh Chattanooga proper, can I say it? Bless our hearts! Still 50 deg at 10pm last night so... Well, at least we had Surprise Saturday. Signal Mountain is money though today!

Inverted trough is now in the isobars. My chips are mostly snow if not all snow.

KCHA is already at season snow climo. Might go AN snow tomorrow! We are definitely playing with casino chips at this point. Along with record rainfall pace and ludicrous AN temps.

That's unanimous on all 3 globals, USA CAD ECMWF.

And the Euro is All Snow baby! Picks up on isentropic lift, though such charts are not available. However one can deduce it from 700 mb which finally shows WAA but steady/falling temps at 700 mb. As MRX says we will be under the right rear/entrance of the jet max. That's ideal in winter if the moisture is available. Soundings are saturated through a deep DGZ. Oh it's the ARW version of the WRF I sometimes like. NAM is still my most used, simply because more charts at more levels are available. So my head says a dusting for KCHA but my heart is now thinking 2 inches could happen. Probably improves north and east from here, assuming the precipitation shield makes it. Plateu and now parts of Middle Tennessee also look good. Less than 24 hours away. Mahomes Magic time!

I feel the call of a Catalooche daytrip from Chattanooga! @Maggie Ace will they run the shuttle bus from Maggie Valley parking even if the upper lot is not full? I ask because I don't want to drive that road up. Thank you. Separately I guess I should take I-40 around. Figure the pass from Cherokee will be a little crazy. Maybe come up tonight, but need some other things to be canceled locally first. Weekdays are short lift lines and cheaper lift tix. Oh yeah!

Now that I'm briefing people at work, time to get serious. Unfortunately I'm afraid @dwagner88 is correct on the previous page regarding warmer surface temps compared to Saturday Surprise 8 Feb. My concern is actually just the opposite of MRX. They go cold enough to start as snow, changing to rain. I'm thinking, stays warmer overnight than forecast due to increasing clouds. Building HP might help; but, I don't know. We're talking about the southeast the Tennessee Valley in southeast Tenn, lol! Enough precipitation starting as virga and evaporative cooling could actually bring down temps after it starts. One would hope for that inverted trough to back winds closer to north. Again the trough is not shown in isobars, just a hint in surface wind fields. It's not the 2014 or 2015 storms. Finally while the track, thickness lines and even progged radar have similarities to Surprise Saturday, the system is quite different. Saturday was a tight feisty little thing. This is a lumbering wave. True it's just right (greater than post-frontal junk, less than WAA beast) it's still a lot different. I'm sorry my optimism is fading. Head is going with MRX. OHX also concerned about temps. Heart is of course going with bullish GFS runs! Oh, and the 12Z NAM, hello. Cage Match thread title is just epic! Probably the best in our sub-forum all-time. So I have to add this meme. When snow misses Jayhawks, we go all WWE!

John that was a great year, really both 2015 and 2014 for KCHA. My daughter almost forgot what it's like to have snow in town. Yeah I drove her (and myself hehe) to Calhoun, Georgia in December 2017. She really did not remember the 2014-15 snows in KCHA. And we snow ski every year. However just like us on the Board, for kids snow IMBY is something different and truly special. So, this Feb. 8 was really great in Chatty. Daddy daughter dance was the night prior. Then boom! Four inches of snow IMBY!!

PowellVolz is right about the ECMWF trouble two Saturdays ago. Actually the systems do have some similarities. Both follow a first wave that pulls in cold. Both are greater than post-frontal junk, yet not WAA monsters. Really they are the pattern recognition I seek. NAM is probably too amped but I think the Euro is missing the wave and some isentropic lift. See my previous post. I'm guessing the 18Z GFS stays similar to its previous runs, somewhere in the middle. Look for trends on the 18Z or overnight ICON and Euro, hopefully less bearish even if staying on the light side. Finally, I had to put Darth Vader in Banter again. Cheers!

Dear AFD Authors, RE East Tennessee snow on Thursday.

Great post Math/Met. Inverted trough is the only way Chattanooga can get snow when surface temps are above freezing; otherwise, it's straight downslope hell. Indeed the NAM/GFS hint at a slight inverted trough in wind fields. It does not stand out as well with isobars. Hvward also makes a good point about the Spectral vs Gridded models this set-up (Mountains, SE sub) which was valid with the Chattanooga surprise as well. No major concerns/changes with the 12Z data. American gridded NWP sticks with sticking snow. Euro does not have much. Appears the Euro is missing subtle wave strength. This is not post-frontal junk. We have a true short-wave with isentropic lift coming through Thursday. Euro might not resolve the best early to midday isentropic lift. I get at that indirectly at 700 mb. Euro is CAA. Others are neutral with a frame or two slight WAA. That's going to also be isentropic lift. Rose/snow colored glasses? Maybe, but I'm going with American guidance. Possible the Euro is picking up on more strength in the dry northern stream. However pattern recognition favors the wave producing the upglide/isentropic lift. Pattern recognition favors the American guidance Thursday.

Just got back from skiing Snowshoe, WV. Talk about lucky/blessed in an otherwise awful winter. Snowed up there Friday and conditions gradually improved with each night of snow-making. Alas, this is my home thread back at 500 FT. Gut likes Thursday along-north of I-40, plus the Plateau and Mountains. Wait, the GFS/NAM don’t have precip? A risk with such cold dry air. However that solid HP anchors any cold in place; so, it’s of course and overall big plus. ECMWF usually has QPF to/north of I-40; so, I think it looks good (NWP verbatim). System originates in Texas and slides to our south, my favorite track. Yes basic WAA precip. Should not cut with northern stream pushing (billiard ball meteorology) if the surface high ain’t enough. 700 mb temps look close to ideal. Trouble is boundary layer. Anybody shocked there? I think I said that before Chattanooga got 4 inches of boundary layer problems.

Hopefully we can avoid Death Nina SER. Japan model isn’t too bad. Most of the cool is south of the Equator. Is the PDO trying to take a breather? Better be after spring cause warm off West Coast makes severe season bo-ring! Now, that look could be nice next winter if the central north-PAC keeps cooling.

ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it. High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never!

Need ENH along north of I-20 from JAN to BMX, including MSU and UAH (latter or universities not airports). Temps/Dews are way ahead of progged. Meh soundings on models are worthless. Winds ARE turning with height. CAPE with lifting WF going into evening in Dixie. What could go wrong? A lot!

Oh yeah that pesky inversion will add to the mountain wave event, increasing the efficiency of the LLJ crashing down the north slopes. Weekend of the 22nd is starting to look interesting on the Globals for the Plateau and Mountains. Could be for anyone along-north of I-40. Not much to add at this point. Now that Chatty had it's good snow, I'm really rooting for y'all up there! Oh hello 12Z Euro! It won't be that cold, but the attempt is good for winter lovers. Maybe a storm system instead.

Well that would suck the life out of severe. I place my order for cooler weather central tropical Pac. Keep warm east. TNI boom!

Looks like Iron Basketbowl II for me tonight. ESPN crooks have my Kansas game on + this evening. Does that mean wish for severe too?

Oh that looks like help from downslope too. Quite obvious on visible satellite now. Chatty still in the soup. Good to know!

I'm ready to see that MDT Red on the SPC charts instead of the WPC charts. Can it just be April yet? 12Z QPF progs are not quite as bad East, but still there Mid-Tenn. Trouble there is double whammy of daytime rain and then the squall line.

We got almost an inch more overnight. Apparently it all ran off. @dwagner88 was I seeing things or the creek was almost up to the bridge by Food City Jenkins and EB Rd?

MRX rightly is/has been more concerned about flooding. SPC has caved, lol. OK seriously, they did not cave. Shorter Term data not available or reliable at Day 4 shows the problems with the set-up now as we move in to Day 2. It's too damn warm at the mid-levels. Oh this wind field would be amazing with April or even March surface temps. Winds with height turn almost 45 deg. Usually Dixie has about 30 deg. Rooted supercells would spin up in a hurry, but... CAPE is hard to come by. They talk about low-CAPE high shear events. This is almost NO CAPE. Looks like skinny cape above 700 mb and questionable if any below. Lack of low-level CAPE juxtaposed (vertically) with low-level turning is a deal breaker. So, I have zero interest in chasing. I'm not really even worried about severe at home. I will be peacefully relaxing and watching Kansas at West Virginia. Uh, actually I'll probably be barking at my TV, lol! Actually the ESPN crooks put it on + which I boycott. OK, hope for severe!

I didn't even remember who wrote what. That's funny though, lol! Yes I hope they keep the AFDs public. Surely they will always do them for shift-change and coordination with offices. I mean if SPC is public, surely AFDs can be public. I could just make a phone call; but, he thought of no AFDs has me... Back in the Panic Room!

Rare High Risk and large Moderate Risk of flooding is quite significant for the South. Due to the high impact of this event, please share with your fiends on social media. Make sure the graphic comes up on the post. Date it and make it public too. (just change back to friends your next post.) I went through Thursday, though the High is through Tuesday. This is going to be bad from rivers down to streams and low areas.

Sun angle IS brutal. Chattanooga winter wonderland was gone by 2pm Saturday. I want to say that I found the criticism of MRX inappropriate and uncharacteristic for this Region sub-forum. I did not want to say that in the Obs thread because it was such a beautiful day for some of us. Why ruin the mood? Figured I'd wait a couple days. Funny though, where to put it. It's not Banter but it's out of place in the event thread. Panic Room was a thought. Since it came up... I ask those without the degree to avoid unnecessary and near-personal bashing of the NWS or TV Mets. Might sound like a Met-snob, but this rare call-out is necessary. Once again I really loved the snow. I thought 1/2 inch (ECMWF qpf not sun issue). Hoped for 1-2 inches (US models). Bama magic came through for Chatty! Four lovely inches of snow and a whole lot of fun for kids of all ages!! It only takes 3 hours to make a season. The Super Bowl. Saturday snow in Chattanooga!