nrgjeff

Always fun to saber rattle severe in December, a holiday tradition for me, though I enjoyed the snow yesterday. Moisture looks a little JIT and the wave has a slight positive tilt on the ECMWF. I can see why SPC waits. However the upper level wind fields are robust. Currently no VBV issues and 500 mb is nearly straight west. Things like this can work out in December when it's more about dynamics than thermodynamics. We'll see... If Monday does not work out there's always Christmas severe saber rattling. Big warm-up is forecast that holiday week before a front. Little more of a West trough is forecast for a few days before advancing into the Plains and Mid South. Funny a few days ago one GFS run had snow for Christmas. Anything is possible 2 weeks out!

I infer from Lezak's public forecast that the dominant pattern is the trough Plains, which gives 3-4 winter storms for KCMO. Secondary pattern is not discussed in the public forecast; however, the LRC usually has one. I don't have access to the subscription, though maybe I should. Anyway I figure the secondary pattern is northwest flow. That's less juicy your way but probably my only hope over in Tenn.

I'll put in an order for Trans Nino by spring. Thank you!

Saturday has more instability than Tuesday night's debacle. However Saturday low level winds look a bit veered. Probably be more interesting Friday in the Plains. At any rate Saturday would require some sort of meso-scale boundary set-up if those 850/925 winds don't back a bit on the models. I'm not counting on that. Good thing we have plenty of football, basketball and other sports this long weekend. Happy Thanksgiving!

If the IOD stays on full-tilt, it does kind of promote a Modoki shadow/imprint. However like pointed out above, sub surface is warm east. Perhaps most important, will be weaker convection when it's over/near Indonesia - thanks to cool SST anomalies. That's typically the warm phase, so muting it could help keep colder MJO phases.

China Met Admin is going fairly mild for China this winter. If the current wavelength holds (Asia Bering North American) ABNA the USA could be mild too. Of course different wavelengths and MJO pulses will add variability. Like right now, brrrr.

Oh lovely. Anything really happening up that way? How much wind is really mixing down? Appreciate ground reports.

PDO is trying to drop. If it continues it'll be hard to get Nino 1-2 to warm up. Modoki could be wasted on -WPO instead of -EPO. Mild and wet SE? Still lots of grand solar min talk. Big blocking could be wasted on an out of phase PNA. Good to be in the Plains though.

Sure enough MEM damage survey rates EF-1. Little drama for the Mid South to round out an active 12 hours starting back in OK/AR and of course Dallas.

Sunday afternoon SPC gave the Monday outlook a haircut. Probably valid. LLJ weakens going into eveing. That's just ugly. One looks for it to strengthen going into evening. HRRR has stuff ahead of the line, but it's the HRRR out 36 hours LOL. WRF versions don't and I think I'll believe meh for HSV to CHA. Wake me up in May. Edit: Wake me up when Mahomes is back.

Alright time to get serious* after two cynical posts today (other threads). GFS and Euro are finally lined up on the Plains Sunday. That's going into Ozarks trash so no travel for me. Monday could go in the Lower Miss Valley into the Tennessee Valley if everything lined up. Turning with height has improved over previously forecast junk hodos. Moisture is there. Probably have an ongoing line of storms in progress. That would keep things mainly wind. While I'm not too excited about Monday, it's a whole lot more exciting than praying the October weather pattern somehow holds on into November. Think KC Chiefs blowing leads. Kills my optimism about anything. *Sorry I guess it's all relative, lol!

Japan always goes blue Southeast US. Probably not that cold here. Unfortunately climate change is killing mid Atlantic skiing as badly as it is Honshu skiing.

Modoki won't help Southeast winter if the PNA is aligned to send the cold West. SER is my forecast.

Greenday, wake me up when September ends. Wait, it's October and still in the 90s!

Yeah we won't see anything in Dixie. Another win for climo.

ECMWF is saber rattling Dixie Alley 2nd run in a row. GFS is less interested. SPC seems to be leaning Euro. It's way out of climo. Dixie does not have the October rebound like the Plains. I'd like to see this for a few more days. Also the Euro mysteriously has the LLJ totally AWOL. Odd. At any rate it's something more interesting to watch than the SER.

I'm sad. Can we reverse the 3.4 and 1.2 and get some severe?

Monday Sept. 23: SPC did a great job interpreting the GFS in the Day 4-8 outlook. ECMWF in contrast lights the warm front Saturday and Monday. Who do I believe? Not the GFS! However the Euro is days 6-8; so, caution there too. I'm watching though! Understand I'm roasting under the SER and need something for which to look forward, lol.

The only hope for winter is a ton of aerosols. Oceans can't absorb any more heat; therefore, charts are red all over. SSTs, surface temps, Arctic source regions are all red. Even SSW is defanged with a mild source region. Maybe after several years of low solar and/or major aerosol injection. Always possible I'm just being negative though. At least Tennessee and Kansas both won their football games, and the Chiefs whipped the Raiders out there! Hanged out with climo scientists a NWAS19, but I think here is where I hand it off to the Climate Change Forum.

Chattanooga hit 100 degrees (dews 72+) before the thunderstorms Tuesday. Normally dews dip into the 60s at 100 deg, but not this time. Glad that's over. Saw Nashville storm anvils but those cells did not make it into Chatty. Lightning and thunder started slowly since it was new development for Chatty. By evening the light and thunder show improved.

Oceans appear to have trouble absorbing and sinking heat. Looks like another mild winter. That's a lot for the solar min overcome. Even with massive blocking, warm Arctic / weak source region = meh.

The SST forecast looks too cold globally. Been a long time since that much BN SST were observed. Verbatim that SST forecast correlates with the 500 mb forecast; but, I don't believe either one. I could see slight BN SST tropical Pac. However I don't believe the IO or mid-latitude projections. North Pac has a shot at verifying though. With Nina that's variable, and many headaches forecasting week by week in winter.

Then SPC drops that 'watch not expected' mesoscale discussion. Went about like tropical depression 3. Monday was kind of a choke day on those two fronts, pun intended at the mid-latitudes. However post-frontal paradise, mild temps and low humidity. will verify nicely!

Today Monday July 22, National Weather Service is hitting flooding hard along and north of the I-40 and I-81 corridors. Good call considering all of Today Monday July 22, National Weather Service is hitting flooding hard along and north of the I-40 and I-81 corridors. Good call considering Observation posts from @John1122 up that way. Ground won't hold anything before flooding quickly. Locally 2 inches of rain could fall quickly, with isolated 3 inch bursts. Hope we can all avoid flash flooding. Might be worth sharing NWS posts on regular social media too. It will still be hit or miss. Hopefully more miss.

Should be a Friday night gem. Hope it rolls down I-24 all the way to Chattanooga. Enhanced is probably the right call. We lack the ingredients for Moderate. No 500 mb short-wave or height falls helps avoid the D-word. In fact 500 mb is neutral to slightly rising. Still we have all kinds of WAA at 700/850 mb from the southwest to feed the beast. How about those MEM surface obs? Yeah the scientific word for that is gross, lol! It's evidence of great instability. However it's capped until the MCS arrives. Another MCS is forecast Saturday, but I'm thinking this first one will be the best. Pure undisturbed airmass is ready to rumble.