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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    February fork in the road. Looks cold rest of Jan. Mild for a few days maybe 5-10 Feb. What next? Start spring like 2018 or reload like 2015. Most of us probably hope the latter. Indonesia convection is a disturbing warm signal. However central Pac convection is retrograding toward that Dateline sweet spot for cold here. Finally, and I'm not sure what to make of it, a cold front reached the Philippines. Not unheard of. We can get some through the Caribbean this side of the marble. My question/hope is if the Asia cold overwhelms that Indonesia warm signal. Jet stream could block connection. Or the risk is that the convection actually enhances the whole pineapple express. Models are apparently struggling just as we humans are. Time will tell. I'm really split 50/50. Housekeeping note: Might want to rename this thread or start Feb. If all goes well with an active Feb. maybe new thread. Cheers!
  2. nrgjeff
    Yes Tennessee experience shows. Big game Saturday Kansas at Kentucky. At Rupp, I have to pick Kentucky. Cal will definitely get Kentucky ready by tournament time. Always does. My Jayhawks need some real Self Magic to make up for losing Azubuike. We have some young talent, but they are green. Hopefully our season does not turn out as disappointing as the FV3, lol!
  3. nrgjeff
    Model snow on Day 7 and farther is like leaving 2 minutes on the clock for Tom Brady. Probably won't go well.
  4. nrgjeff
    Yes the Pacific is not lined up classic El Nino. For one thing the maritime continent (Indonesia) has a ton of convection; and, that's a warm signal. However another huge mass of convection is out in the central tropical Pacific. It is more El Nino. Gap is noted on the Dateline, which would be our coldest phase of the MJO. Following up from Carvers above; MJO has traits of strong Nina and strong Nino (east). For snow we really need some more subtle convection and over the Dateline instead. SSW might have been the only thing that saved us from another warm debacle. Possible that when Alaska relaxes somewhat, the -NAO could take over. Could be a real struggle to reel it in though. Again like Carvers said, this -NAO keeps being pushed back. Could very well be fighting the rising QBO. Kind of like fighting poor NFL officiating, Oops, I'm off-topic. I think next week the full latitude trough dumps serious cold into the South, including us. Everybody is tired of false hope, but next week is a good broad weather pattern. Just need to gin up a system on the southern stream. ECMWF sees something, but of course can't decide what to do with it. GFS is cold chasing rain, boo. Following week should stay cold going into early Feb. Then I'm buying the warm interlude second week of Feb. Could come in faster. The transition is another chance at winter precip. Just pattern recognition; I'm not looking at any particular forecast. Once in a while the WAA translates into snow if the whole column can stay below freezing. Weeklies both have more cold the second half of Feb. However climo starts getting warmer in a hurry. I think we have plenty to hope for between now and about 5-8 Feb.
  5. nrgjeff
    I can open an ice skating rink in my back yard. One spot holds water too long. Last night I had no heart watching Kansas basketball. KU won, but Brady no a coin toss ripped out my Chiefs heart the day before. Also lost heart for tracking winter precip. Good news is we enjoyed the lunar eclipse. It was prettier than I remember; last one with clear skies was 20 years ago (my locations). PS. Yes I remember TWC business planner. OMG models sucked back then! But I also looked forward to every update, lol. Finally, Tennessee deserves number one for sure! Defense is amazing.
  6. nrgjeff
    The cure for losing in the Playoffs. Apparently the moon still likes Chiefs red. I dressed in ski clothes for this. Pics are phone thru telescope, I know pretty basic. Lunar eclipse was actually more beautiful binoculars and naked eye. No scope needed.
  7. nrgjeff
    Congratulations Tennessee! Vols are really good. Could be Final Four! Meanwhile the Kansas game was more like watching the GFS. I will be at peace if the Chiefs win tonight. Third time I remind everyone the lunar eclipse is looking great tonight. Skies are clearing. High clouds possible northwest should not impact viewing.
  8. nrgjeff
    If you think the system disappointed here, see the Illinois frustration. The Illinois snow choke is right up there with Kansas basketball! Most importantly, sky is clearing out. Lunar Eclipse game on tonight! Few high clouds northwest quad of our region should not impact. It will be cold but I'm all in!
  9. nrgjeff
    Cheeseland is passionate about severe wx and welcome here. Note the smiley face. I was going to take down my Christmas tree MLK Day weekend. If it is still up Monday, I will also use the shutdown reasoning as a later deadline. Wetumka tornado is an unfortunate verification of the 5%. These things can happen with a dynamically forced line marginal instability. Most importantly sky will clear out in time for the lunar eclipse tonight! High clouds could come into the northwest quad of our Region but not a show stopper.
  10. nrgjeff
    Good luck at the meet @jaxjagman and safe travel. I think Illinois will get the roads passable even if cold reduces effectiveness of road treatment. Wind could help evaporate or sublime water too. Regarding the endless cloud cover the last few weeks, we may need a Sanitarium thread in here of our own. Clear Sunday night for the lunar eclipse would buy me a little more time of sanity. Chiefs better win too!
  11. nrgjeff
    Storm cells looked good for one overnight run. Today CAMs are lined out for Saturday. Snow this weekend looks like mainly a Kentucky story, plus the usual higher elevations. Clearing Sunday night should allow viewing the lunar eclipse. Middle of next week could be more interesting along I-40 and I-81 from northern Middle Tenn to TRI. Euro has that back piece of energy riding up the front. For CHA that set-up is a non-starter; but, it works points north and east. GFS can't decide. ECMWF might lose it a run or two. However it shows up more times than not. Little early to fish out the back piece of energy on Pacific satellite; still, those systems already include multiple chunks of energy. It could happen.
  12. nrgjeff
    Saturday showcase includes thunderstorms. CAMs mostly line out the activity which is not a surprise. Line will be very forced with limited instability. Kinematics and wind field looks excellent. Rain and clouds should keep it a little cool though. If instability somehow verifies higher it might be worth a second look on a weekend. Otherwise the real show is the ESPN Saturday Showcase; lots and lots of good college basketball. Sunday evening should clear out in time for the lunar eclipse. Yes, back to fair weather chasing.
  13. nrgjeff
    For I-40 and north: Energy transfer appears to be the main question on the next two systems, weekend and again middle of next week. What's new? LOL Euro wants to gin up the southern stream over the weekend. Such a solution gets more snow into West Tenn. Also colder Monday morning everywhere. Others tend to botch the transfer coming out of Missouri. Show-Me state will show us quite a lot this time. Next week we had a run or two with a back piece of energy throwing moisture up over the cold front. That is always a tough sell down here after the main system ejects. 12Z Euro is not buying, but it's a week out. For HSV/CHA we will simply hope Sunday evening clears out well for the Lunar eclipse. It'll be crazy cold, but maybe just watch from heated home or car. No reason to get cute with photography.
  14. nrgjeff
    True NWP has backed off since then. However the GFS and FV3 were really drastic at 12Z today. Honestly in the 11-15 day anything can happen. Risk of mild is non-zero. However I think cold is the safer forecast attm. I will LOL if the 18Z goes cold, but this is probably my last post of the day. Cheers! PS: Possibly the models are simply fine tuning for today's climate regime. A few days ago models showed 1980s style cold. Now they are showing 2000s cold; still cold though.
  15. nrgjeff
    Both sets of Ensembles keep the 11-15 day colder than normal. GFS/FV3 may have both been bad runs. Perhaps a bird farted near a jet taking samples over the Pacific.
  16. nrgjeff
    ECWMF does seem to want to dig the weekend system a little longer, which would put West Tenn and of course Kentucky in play for snow. Couple storms this year the ECWMF beat the NAM in short range (30-36 hr) in the Midwest. Will it translate South? MJO wants influence later next week, but I tend to believe the strong blocking signals will outweigh. Looks like a mild interlude between arctic systems is likely. It might be 1-2 days. A West first arctic dump might give us 3-4 mild days. Still from the upper latitudes pattern I infer it comes east. Pretty safe call really. Still looks like a true arctic outbreak Jan 26-30. Very end of the EPS has it easing up slightly, but one expects some ebb and flow. I expect more cold in Feb.
  17. nrgjeff
    Go with the one that blanks Chattanooga, and you're good.
  18. nrgjeff
    Forced line and other junk could include severe. However it will not be anything worth chasing. Also could mature over poor terrain at night. If just forecasting sloppy severe, still possible.
  19. nrgjeff
    European Ensembles have almost no mild members (out of 50) two runs in a row (12/00Z). Clusters are pretty much 100% cold. Only question is how cold. Elsa took over the GFS, pissed off from a party. Can't really find any problems in the current Pacific pattern or the forecast models. MJO is the only question, and a valid concern, but that's a forecast. Confidence is unusually high in a prolonged cold pattern. Snow south of I-40 remains wait and see. However I pretty much expect snow at/north of I-40. North of I-40 should have multiple opportunities. This is not really a brave call given the forecast weather pattern. Enjoy! GFS Op continues to perform better than the FV3/Para. Likely shut-down related. Op gets the only attention.
  20. nrgjeff
    North Ark benefits from downslope off the Ozarks. Must be nice. Never happens in CHA. Kansas let Texas stay too close last night. Syracuse took down Duke at Cameron, wow! Thankfully Tennessee is the early game tonight. I'm not a fan of staying up for the late game. Saturday Showcase (ESPN) will be a gem. Kansas at UWV then Auburn hosts Kentucky. Tennessee hosts Bama on ESPN2 vs the usual SECN. I'm happy about that! Then Sunday I will try and remember to breathe while the Chiefs host the Pats. European weekly charts also show soccer culture in Chattanooga. CFC Blue is our team. No Red Wolves. Better DEAD than RED!
  21. nrgjeff
    Confidence is pretty good on a somewhat sustained cold stretch. I think 2-3 weeks in a row temps will average BN but still some mild interludes between fronts. Pattern recognition north of I-40 and at higher elevations is favorable for snow at least once. Jury is out along US-72 until something can get within 36 hours. Hurry up and wait, lol! MJO convection is noted in multiple zones, but none with dominant influence. Convection is forecast to lessen in the next 7-10 days. With less tropical forcing, the polar vortex should remain split. NWP is in good agreement on the cold. GFS clusters are all cold. EPS does have a SER minority cluster but it is only 25%. Other 75% are cold. Deterministic models (both) tend to have semi-cutters through early next week. Ensembles are similar. I-40 north is in play for snow both times; but, I do not expect anything interesting in the HSV-CHA corridor. Just cold. Quite possible the storm track continues to sink south into early February. Longer duration cold tends to intensify with time until it breaks. Such a scenario would leave the door open for everyone. For now I think I-40 north. Eagerly awaiting ECMWF weeklies tonight.
  22. nrgjeff
    NAM raised snow amounts like it is playing catch up to the Euro. NAM still relatively lower amounts might be due to surface and ground temps. However right after Thanksgiving the Euro scored a big coup even inside the time frame where the NAM should prevail. Might have happened one other time, but I remember Thanksgiving more thanks to visiting KCMO. Looks like a big I-70 special from KC to STL. Everyone enjoy! And the Chiefs better win!! PS. Climate blog looks solid. More TV Mets should do that.
  23. nrgjeff
    Asia and the Pacific continue to cooperate as the Euro and CFC weeklies drop the winter hammer in tandem. New storm systems off Asia are being absorbed into the Bering Sea/Aleutians low, rather than moving east into the GOA. Promotes ridge over northwest NA. MJO is still a little muddled, but other drivers are trending toward a cold Southeast US. It may take a couple weeks for the storm track to settle. Next weekend looks like another I-70 special; yes, I'm calling it 8 days ahead. Following one might even be north. However we still have February, which has been good to Chattanooga and many others in this Region who have to wait and wait. If the cold really does verify strong, it may come in faster and harder than initially forecast. We'll see.
  24. nrgjeff
    I can't remember the last time I was so nervous about a football game. Go Chiefs! We may be offering virtual snow chasing on TV at Arrowhead too.
  25. nrgjeff
    Yes I concur secondary track south. In late January early February, with cold air in place, that would work out well. My primary Plains track might be influenced by watching yet another one this weekend gin up from KC to STL, the I-70 special. Sometimes weather makes me homesick, lol!
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