nrgjeff

Warning, intense cynicism is likely... NOAA winter outlook take-aways. Great for the Mid South again. Enjoy your snow. SER probably hangs on east Tenn Valley. Book another crap winter. I need a trip to the Plains this weekend through Monday.

Twitter is blowing up. Getting more serious, I hear local media is on it. Houston and vicinity is preparing. We can do without the Twitter Harvey comparisons. However it could be serious. People don't be scared; just be prepared and aware. Today most rain bands are weakening as they approach the Beltway and Loop. Look for heavier rain getting all the way across town by midweek. Regardless it brings back tough memories for people in the region. I'm thinking of them.

I should have attended more fire wx talks at NWAS instead of tornado porn. We really don't need that action again. Yeah we're good on sig fire danger attm. However if the pattern goes through October we'll be in more drought. Hurricanes are being caught by Great Lakes New England troughs barely within the 15 degrees (lat/lon) threshold we use to forecast recruve. However the said 'cane leaves behind its ridge upstairs over the South. Trough West ain't helping either. Just a brutal whip!

For all my whining in the weather threads, both Tennessee and Kansas won this weekend. Football season always presents new possibilities!

Of course it'll be sudden. Having a real fall is overrated. (Note my disgust with the situation though.) Interesting mid-summer models missed a couple nice fronts. However mid-summer is when the climate signal is weakest. We're hot anyway. I guess from Sept-May just assume fronts fail or under perform. 12Z Euro just went warmer 6-10 day. Do we cry or just laugh?

The only hope for winter is a ton of aerosols. Oceans can't absorb any more heat; therefore, charts are red all over. SSTs, surface temps, Arctic source regions are all red. Even SSW is defanged with a mild source region. Maybe after several years of low solar and/or major aerosol injection. Always possible I'm just being negative though. At least Tennessee and Kansas both won their football games, and the Chiefs whipped the Raiders out there! Hanged out with climo scientists a NWAS19, but I think here is where I hand it off to the Climate Change Forum.

Yeah I think we are locked in AN temps for several more weeks. Still it won't be as bad going into Oct. Euro weeklies 4-6 probably just trending climo. CFS reloads more AN temps. Not that I trust the CFS but at least it's doing something other than punt to climo. Global wind is still negative and looking to dip again. Only hope might be that Kelvin wave; but, I think that's just the temporary break before the reload. I'm also resigned to another crappy fall foliage year. Hell, I can do better in Kansas City.

Trough west. Severe Midwest. Death SER here. Chatty is working on another record high too. Ferris Bueller Principal: Nine Days! Agree! New members get your feet wet here and in Banter. Our regional sub-forum is especially solid in two ways. Yes, we take the science seriously, but not ourselves, this post haha. At the same time we treat new members with the same respect and inclusion given to long-time members. No such thing as a bad forecast if it includes reasoning (even just a little).

I'd intended to post several days ago; however, most people already covered my thoughts. Of course it's good to reel in the advertised cool front! What next? I lean toward the slight rebound of the ridge and temps as Carvers discusses above. Global wind is still a little negative (less so during the cool front). However GW may dip more around Labor Day. A sharp or shorter wavelength PNA would also allow the Bermuda ridge to ooze back into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Still, I really want to be optimistic and forecast football weather for football season. Occasional slightly above normal is still football weather I would say, if we can just avoid a particularly stubborn Smoky Mtn SER.

Tuesday: Another round of storms blew up in East Tenn. Some wind damage was reported around Pigeon Forge and Sevier County. Wednesday: Today reminds me of August 21, 2017. It's hot and mostly sunny here. MCS is decaying over the Central Plains. No eclipse though, lol! One year ago 8/21/18 was cloudy and rainy here. I find it interesting to compare weather as I reflect on the eclipse. This year would have worked out again.

Chattanooga hit 100 degrees (dews 72+) before the thunderstorms Tuesday. Normally dews dip into the 60s at 100 deg, but not this time. Glad that's over. Saw Nashville storm anvils but those cells did not make it into Chatty. Lightning and thunder started slowly since it was new development for Chatty. By evening the light and thunder show improved.

Oceans appear to have trouble absorbing and sinking heat. Looks like another mild winter. That's a lot for the solar min overcome. Even with massive blocking, warm Arctic / weak source region = meh.

The SST forecast looks too cold globally. Been a long time since that much BN SST were observed. Verbatim that SST forecast correlates with the 500 mb forecast; but, I don't believe either one. I could see slight BN SST tropical Pac. However I don't believe the IO or mid-latitude projections. North Pac has a shot at verifying though. With Nina that's variable, and many headaches forecasting week by week in winter.

Then SPC drops that 'watch not expected' mesoscale discussion. Went about like tropical depression 3. Monday was kind of a choke day on those two fronts, pun intended at the mid-latitudes. However post-frontal paradise, mild temps and low humidity. will verify nicely!

Today Monday July 22, National Weather Service is hitting flooding hard along and north of the I-40 and I-81 corridors. Good call considering all of Today Monday July 22, National Weather Service is hitting flooding hard along and north of the I-40 and I-81 corridors. Good call considering Observation posts from @John1122 up that way. Ground won't hold anything before flooding quickly. Locally 2 inches of rain could fall quickly, with isolated 3 inch bursts. Hope we can all avoid flash flooding. Might be worth sharing NWS posts on regular social media too. It will still be hit or miss. Hopefully more miss.

Should be a Friday night gem. Hope it rolls down I-24 all the way to Chattanooga. Enhanced is probably the right call. We lack the ingredients for Moderate. No 500 mb short-wave or height falls helps avoid the D-word. In fact 500 mb is neutral to slightly rising. Still we have all kinds of WAA at 700/850 mb from the southwest to feed the beast. How about those MEM surface obs? Yeah the scientific word for that is gross, lol! It's evidence of great instability. However it's capped until the MCS arrives. Another MCS is forecast Saturday, but I'm thinking this first one will be the best. Pure undisturbed airmass is ready to rumble.

North Chattanooga and especially Hixson got it this morning (Thursday). Not bad for a sunrise special. Friday and Saturday more MCSs may move through Tennessee and our Regional forum. Reservoir of impressive instability looks to camp out in the region along and south of outflow boundaries. WAA is forecast at 850/700 mb which would help maintain convection. Don't see any robust 500 mb waves so it should not get too crazy. In fact 500 mb heights are neutral or slightly rising both days. Still it is the season for southeast propagating MCSs.

Wed. June 19: Northern half of the MD has a watch out. Since the MD has more forecast information than the watch, and covers areas that could see storms later, I'll post the MD. Mesoscale Discussion 1134 Mesoscale Discussion 1134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee and Kentucky...and adjacent portions of southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191735Z - 191930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm intensity and organization appears possible through 3-5 PM CDT. This may be accompanied by an increase in severe weather potential which could require a watch within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...An ongoing increase in thunderstorm development appears to be associated with a secondary band of large-scale ascent pivoting from the Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley, within the leading edge of larger-scale low-amplitude mid/upper troughing. As this is occurring, inhibition for seasonably moist boundary layer parcels continues to weaken in response to insolation, with mixed-layer CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. At the same time, westerly deep-layer ambient mean fields and vertical shear are also beginning to increase, as a 40-50 kt 500 mb speed maximum gradually propagates eastward from the south central Plains. Into mid to late afternoon, the environment across western into central (middle) Kentucky and Tennessee, and surrounding portions of the lower Ohio Valley, may become conducive to increasingly organized convection. It is possible that this may include a few supercell structures, then perhaps one or two upscale growing clusters of storms accompanied primarily by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/19/2019

Oh wow I did not notice that Monday. Kept redeveloping over Chatty though. The usual stabilize and quit did not happen. That Bledsoe Co storm was locked on. We had a true short-wave in contrast to typical summer pop-up season. Also a veered moist LLJ fed the storms. Veered played a role in the training, promoting back building and redevelopment. My lawn is very happy!

Yes a real short-wave is forecast midweek. Today (Monday) the Marginal held with modest flow aloft. Looks like little more flow is forecast Wednesday. NWP is mixed on how much turning. At least some bows and perhaps good shelfies should be on-deck for Wednesday.

I put my chips on 3-4 chase days next week. However I don't see any big outbreaks. It is typical June chasing, but could be quality chasing. First half of the week starts with the Upper Midwest. Tuesday the ECWMF shows a true system in chasable terrain of the Northern Plains. Wednesday goes into the MN/WI forest, but maybe something can get going down in Iowa. End of next week moderate flow is forecast to remain in the Plains (almost unseasonable NE/northern KS). LLJ is forecast to respond. Might get a couple days out of that if cap is not thermonuclear. Placement is uncertain attm. So I propose we have two pairs of possible chase days. Take out one for terrain and/or bust. Nets 3 chase days?

Alex, I'll take outflow boundary for $400. Actually Knoxville does look at bit stable. Chattanooga might at least get a good Marginal thunderstorm later. Modest flow is aloft at SPC notes. LLJ may be a little veered off. 850 mb is forecast to veer off. 925 mb is trying but still SSW, and the surface will be from the SSE. Moisture might be the main question. Did I just write that in June? Honestly, much as I like storms, I love low humidity in summer. Every day with low humidity is one less of (root canal without Novocaine) misery.

ECMWF still points to a little more activity starting on Friday, and through the end of the model run. ECMWF Para/Beta (2nd deterministic) looks even a little better. The latter keeps westerly flow instead of that northerly junk end of EC Op. Both have modest LLJ response most days starting Friday. Moisture quality is slow to return, but by Friday is enough for central/high Plains. Moisture gradually improves each day, esp on the EC Para. Given what happened Saturday, Colorado and Goodland, chasers may be able to seek meso-scale events again. Good luck to those June-ing!

Crap I missed it! Friday featured a notable LLJ over the area with modest WSW flow at 500 mb. I'm not surprised to see reports of a small tornado and landspout. However I'm quickly losing interest in severe. I have fallen hard in love with the East trough on-deck, and associated 50s dewpoints.

That's awful. Looks like MRX went FF Warning very early Friday morning, well before dawn. Perhaps the Advisory was for follow-up? When in doubt, tweet the National Weather Service @NWSMorristown pictures. They will warn on tweets. They also appreciate tweets for verification and tracking. NWS twitter offices all use their names spelled out; so, one does not have to guess the 3-letter ID. Also use #stwx where st is the two-letter state.