nrgjeff
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Everything posted by nrgjeff
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Seems somebody forgot about March 2, 2012. Southeast Tennessee got rocked but it's no April 27. My analog is that Enhanced Risk day that busted a few weeks back due to rain. Well at least here in Tenn. Mississippi and Alabama may get lit up, especially Miss. Honestly I'm a little surprised the HRRR is not more amped up. No true line of pearls. That tells you something's up. Sure they could all be wrong, but no pearls on the HRRR. Let's look under the hood. Soundings are not all that thick, even mid-levels. Low level CAPE could really be meager due to the inversion and cool rain. Oh but the parameters! Well, that's how forced QLCS or two gets going. Yeah they could have embedded tornadoes; but, long-track strong? Nah. Winds turning with height remains impressive. However some issues have cropped up, namely short-wave timing. Kissing jets are great, unless they miss (Nickelback song, lol) and subsidence is left. Oh, but the EML? Great, unless it comes in at night. That's not really how Dixie rolls w/o low-level CAPE. So many ways for MDT to bust and be more like ENH. On the other hand, slightly different timing of things (namely that EML) could still go nuts in Mississippi and Alabama. My confidence is growing that East Tennessee only faces wind rather than tornadoes Sunday night.
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I miss classic wrestling.
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Ahhh the legendary Dixie pre-frontal trough. If it's warm enough that'll be trouble. Tough to discern from even two NAM runs though. Turning with height is impressive through, 45 degrees vs usual Dixie 30 deg. It will be a simple question of instability.
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One would think a storm shelter is essential. If any government official thinks otherwise, they should be fired and not allowed to serve ever again. Here's the deal. If 100% of the mobile home residents get coivd-19 a few would become seriously ill and maybe 1-2 would pass away. Well, 100% won't get infected even in a crowded shelter. How about the tornado without shelter? Much much worse! That said the 4/27 propaganda is uncalled for. I knew it'd come, but now I'm surprised coming from some otherwise reliable forecasters. Did we not hear that last year? I remember the High Risk system had like 30 degrees turning from 850/500 mb (nowhere close to the 60 deg. 4/27). Guess what? Last year busted! OK we have a solid 45 degrees of turning progged on Sunday. It's gonna be bad. Probably ends up High Risk. However it's not 4/27 or 1974, period. Pray for the Deep South; but, don't freak out.
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They may be right, or rainy pattern recognition could score a huge coup. Praying for the latter.
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Yes models are definitely struggling. Lots of WF rain would anchor the WF. However it's a robust neutral/negatively tilted system which can push WFs around. Models keep it cool. Yet their QPF swaths hint beasts moving from southwest to northeast. Note they did that a couple times last year, and it turned out non-severe rain with thunder; so, it's not set. One thing upstairs the turning with height is at or greater than 45 deg. That can sometimes push precipitation off boundary triggers. If it were to close up to say, 30 deg, might have a better shot at a rain-out less severe. I will say that this is no 4/27. That day turning was nearly 90 degrees; and, a true dry line punched through Dixie. It was like a Plains outbreak. Not happening Easter. My bearish lean is for our Region only! Deep South could have a nasty day closer to the Gulf Coast. Still no 4/27, but could be a top 1-2 for just this year 2020 and just the Deep South.
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Wednesday night southwest flow apparently washed out any boundary. The veered off onslaught saved us from spinners. Then the 5% East Tenn. Wow it was obvious back around midday Wednesday that's not necessary. Might explain SPC. With all due respect, they've been way too model dependent the last couple seasons. Especially the amped up HRRR.
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Euro doubled down for Sunday this afternoon (12Z Wednesday) with even more turning with height. However it's not all that warm Sunday. GFS continues to insist the WF gets hung up in the Deep South on widespread rain. Either way it's not ideal weather for an egg hunt.
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The good the bad and the ugly. Bad first: Tonight looks like an overnight event. The Good: I don't see enough turning (low or upper level) for a big tornado risk. Wind and hail yes, especially from sups. Instability could cause some gorilla hail Midsouth. Yeah we'll have some sups, but turning wind is not that bad. Helicity forecasts are up due to speed shear, but directional is meh. The Ugly: Forecasting an Outbreak Day 5 Sunday. Who knows? Maybe a Gulf Coast MCS will rescue all of us. I mean, it is Easter! Since we can't chase right now, might as well side with the Public and wish against severe.
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GFS forgot there's no early season baseball games to snow out, lol! Though the Euro has jumped on. Is that some delayed April fool's joke? Happy Palm Sunday!
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It's probably usable NWP, even with some degradation. We been modelling 500 mb for over 50 years. The pattern is obviously quiet upstairs. Chaser be like, fine. Get the garbage pattern over with while we can't go out anyway. No matter what, I'm out of the field through April 30, or later if state level guidance goes longer.
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Count me in the weenie group. When that low passed to our south I was about to put a shoe through my TV. Next couple systems look weak and/or positive tilt. That's good to keep severe wx away from the already battered South. GFS and Euro both want to tee up Easter weekend, but it's Day 10. MJO / KWs. are still muddled with two separate areas going. North American modeling will probably be flaky.
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TVA has a great article on the rain this year, and compares to last year. Seems Nature's SOP is break a record, and then break it again the next year. 2020 1Q set a 3-month rainfall record. https://www.tva.com/Newsroom/Rain-Rain-Go-Away
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SPC goes with a tornado watch that gets to KATL and all of the southern 'burbs. While the LLJ is a little veered, it is bringing in a moist fetch. Also surface winds are really backed on that retreating boundary. Regarding that LLJ, I've noticed southern Georgia can produce while a little veered off. I think most of the Atlanta metro is OK, some morning rain and the atmo should not recover / destabilize enough to get nasty later. South Georgia could have a day though.
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Jonesboro tornado trolled all the Illinois and Iowa chasers. Thankfully nobody was killed, but news says some serious injuries. OK we get a break this week. Probably a good thing. Models saw the East trough last week, and it's in progress now. Next week could get active again. Convection is coming out of the Indian Ocean toward Indonesia (maritime sub-continent). Lead by the ECMWF all models are coming around to a West trough. Euro verbatim favors Plains/Midwest. Getting into April it could go north, south and/or both. I don't have any plan to chase anything beyond 2 hours. Dixie just isn't worth the drive, lol.
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Thursday night the stars were particularly vivid. I could almost discern the Milky Way from MBY but not quite near the city. Still the peaceful feeling out under the stars was incredible. Figure with reduced pollution in these times the star gazing will be excellent on clear nights.
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Gulf will also help severe season along. LOL the CFC flip flops on ENSO. Ahh, that spring predictability barrier.
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Synoptic WF appears to have made it as far north as I-80/88; however, outflow farther south in central Illinois is obvious on the surface chart (10am Central Time). I figure the rouge cells ahead advertised on some CAMs will go on that OFB. Given how sharp the WF is up north, I'd favor the OFB. Note I have a strong personal bias toward OFB. Still could be chaser's choice. I'm also not in the field today; so, with a virtual chase I can afford to take forecast risks. Still I have to like 1-2 cells east of where the OFB intersects the Pacific front / quasi-DL. Good luck, and be safe!
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Late summer drought (perhaps flash repeat) would not shock me. Risk of sooner, but depends on if SER is dirty or clean. Until then pretty wet, yuck!
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Hopefully the -NAO is a joke too. Might as well get on with spring. Let the SER give us some sun and Vitamin D! Long range I have to favor a persistent SER. TNI might get backwards for severe early / SER late spring. However, the broad forcing is already acting Nina. So after electric load goes on holiday, maybe utilities can make some money back this summer. HOT and HUMID - Dry heat is off the table after all this rain.
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Big changes since Sunday. Instead of Ohio River Valley jungle, we now have an outflow boundary in North Alabama and just south of KCHA. Still plenty of failure modes. A. Rain-out B. Veered off C. Capped (too little too late) D. Combo of 2-3 above E. Rather watch sports reruns Early season is prone to failures, which is of course good for the general public. That said I figure ENH is incoming. Obviously if something is close to KCHA I'll take a look. No chase greater than 2 hours though; so, I won't be visiting the chasable northwest Bama area today.
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We got throttled March 2012. I've nothing much on this week. Veered off trash. Only turning is in the Ohio River Valley jungle. Back to NCAA Basketball reruns!
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I expect Tuesday will get an Outlook on Saturday morning or soon after. Euro remained consistent if not stronger. LLJ is a touch veered, but not like the last two systems. It's fortunately not backed like Super Tuesday either. Upper level winds are a given. Low level theta E (temps/humidity) will be a question. Even with all those caveats, if the Euro holds, one has to think Tuesday gets a 15%.
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Be safe @Calderon and thank you for your service!
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A less smug tone is appreciated next time. Thank you. Holston you are a better person than me, lol!
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