nrgjeff
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Everything posted by nrgjeff
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Guess the really mild lovely weather couldn't last forever. However as Carvers says above, Return to Reality might not be that bad. I also want to tie into Jax above. ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern could keep the hottest anomalies North. Current ABNA phase (off-and-on) is ridge Northeast Asia (North China and northward) and from the Great Lakes to Central / Eastern Canada. The ABNA is a little different road to South normal (vs harsh AN temps). Ridging is more North than West. However sloshing around puts the ridge West at times. CFS is all about that ridge North scenario. ECMWF weeklies still wants to introduce slightly AN temps here in July. Be nice if they were reversed. However the ECMWF has not been anything really special recently. Both weekly products just been prodding along. This has been a nice mild week, a great relief after that Cristobal humidity. Next week though warmer, humidity may stay reasonable (for here). Following week going into the Fourth could be more humid. East Tennessee should have another nice evening (Friday) rain cooled. Everyone have a great weekend!
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KCHA dewpoint is 75. Spaceballs scale is Humid, Gross, Ridiculous, and Ludicrous. Today is Ludicrous. How many days until Halloween? Takes that long to cool off these days. Weekend does look nice though! MORE: So thankful for the second Plains trough behind Cristobal; otherwise, we'd be stuck with these dewpoints a while. Instead it'll be pretty reasonable for about a week. I don't even care we missed out on severe with the front. Thankful the dews are coming down!
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According to TVA social media, new trails are open at South Holston Reservoir. It is a new multi-use trail system. Weekend should dry out but it'll be hot!
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The lamenting in the Plains chasing community is off the chart. Final stats are somewhat closure, and somewhat more reason to whine, lol! Hurricane season is ramping up and tropical fans are excited. How do I feel? Picture Clint Eastwood on his porch in Gran Torino.
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Looks reasonable. After the current KW passes through the Western Hemisphere, the Pacific looks open for more tropical easterlies. Then La Nina might tip its hand. We are past the spring predictability barrier. Subsurface obs and model forecasts all line up well for La Nina in winter.
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And with AAM sinking, textbook would be SER. However that looks disrupted by yet another closed low. Who cares if it's tropical or not? Same old same old 2020. Still looks hot over our region though. And an unseasonably deep trough from the Rockies into the Plains gets wasted again if all those progs are right. This could have been a bonkers year, but almost doesn't count.
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They do mention the Tennessee Valley twice, or on two days. We'll see. Ohio Valley could get it too. Everything is pretty unidirectional upstairs, but there is flow for wind or hail. I was looking back at the May 31, 1985 outbreak in Ohio, Penn, and NY State. They had just a little turning from WNW 500 mb to WSW 850 mb. Intriguing. That's not in the cards this week. However I will keep it in mind balance of June north of here.
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Oak Ridge had AN rain in May. Seems TYS just got left out. Otherwise it has been quite wet in East Tenn. I think we are finally entering a more typical summer pattern. Next front looks like a stall rather than pass. Nice and humid by then too.
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The wet has been nuts. A THIRD in a row record rainfall year is within reach in some spots. Rainfall needs to be .4" above normal each of the months the rest of the year. That is not yet a high probability outcome. However a tropical cyclone could nearly clinch it - barring a severe flash drought. NUTS!
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Looks like a beautiful shelf cloud with scud underneath. I see that often in East Tenn. Regrettably/Fortunately (depending on one's perspective) it's not dangerous and not a tornado. Looking ahead, desperation has me watching for a tropical cyclone landfall next weekend or later. If it's central Gulf I might be interested in the outer bands supported by robust LLJ like winds off the surface. Zero interest in a landfall intercept, but maybe right/east side tornadoes. The 2020 debacle continues. No Plains chase. Almost hit overnight at home. Upper Midwest death ridge. Tropical temptation desperation.
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Today has an enticing surface set-up. Looks at upper air charts and forecasts. Unidirectional. Pukes up breakfast!
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NASA and Space-X like the least diurnally favorable time of day for June in Florida. I know other non-weather factors go into the launch window, including the ISS position. Still, it's so 2020. Eventually they will launch between thundershowers. It'll be so exciting. I remember in 1981 watching Space Shuttle Columbia, after a couple delays. Parents were so excited to get back into Space after a 5 year hiatus since Skylab. Now we experience it after an even longer 9 year hiatus. And stupid Putin can stop with his silly trampoline comments. Hey Vlad, who's been to the Moon?
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I agree with CLL if anything. Cells northwest are in a fresh environment, but lower dews and veered surface winds. CLL is backed and humid in the South Texas tradition. If that beast does not break up a bit it'll be low visibility along the line. When all else fails, the view from the Texas A&M Weather Lab is good.
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Oh I forgot about early terminating El Nino. Hope springs eternal Upper Midwest, this year! Oh my that Texas hail would have been terrifying, coming through the roof and ceiling.
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I have a lake in my back yard. Welp. At least I have my own wetlands preserve with social distancing, lol!
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Good year for VZ to give 15G data April and May. Too bad I didn't use mine chasing. Come on Verizon, June too!
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Yeah I think we'll Nina this winter. KW will delay things a bit for summer. However the eastern Pac is in full easterly mode. Ventrice put something on Twitter including the Pac and Atlantic. I didn't comment, but it screams hot humid SER this summer. My previous negativity aside, La Nina would tee up more Dixie Alley severe next spring. Saving it for the Plains seems silly. Guess we chase the Jungle in April! Finally, Jax, this is all petty stuff compared to cancer. Praying your wife beats that, and praying for your whole family's strength through the battle.
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Definitely a tornado above. NWS concurred on Twitter and by email. Note the average size wall cloud structure. It's not some broad shelf cloud and scud. It's the real deal!
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Kansas Saturday is all-or-nothing. Could be a beautiful cell or two on DL bulge near outflow intersection. Could be blue sky cap bust. I'm not a big fan of the cold front in Nebraska, unless another boundary intersection is present - quite possible even if it's just the synoptic triple point. Oklahoma convects, overcomes warm 850 mb, but upper support is meager. Saturday is obviously a local chase day. Still in all of 2020 I have yet to go more than 60 minutes away from my front step. Easter night almost came to me - not good! Couple days of East Tennessee low top low probability but good visibility days. Never chased true Dixie. Saved it for May Plains. Ooops!!
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After the closed low fest, hot summer SER and humid with all the left over ground moisture. Then blowtorch next winter. See you in April 2021.
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I like the last two days. Tropical bubbly clouds and a breeze. If you really imagine hard, we're on the slopes of Hawaii mountains. I know I'm friggin bored!
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Super Nina winter blowtorch. Fades by spring. No severe. Guess who's despondent? Finally threw in the flag no chase trip. Since the Plains May has been DOA 5/7 years in a row, it's time to take Dixie seriously and just chase around here in April.
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The high temperature anomalies forecast under clouds are very impressive early next week. I can do without the clouds; but, another delay of SER summer is fine with me. Oh yeah this is the Obs thread. New York > Oklahoma severe today. I'd love to sit at the intersection of the Hudson River Valley (visibility) and their warm front shear.
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Looks up May and June 1956 in the Plains, lol! Nah with covid-19 and that awful cut-off low in Texas, I think no Plains chase trip this year. No way to manage the covid-19 risk without camping in the car and eating tuna fish and crackers. When I chase I like my breakfast buffet and evening drinks - both part of the experience. Just can't do it! Meanwhile it's gonna get hot here next week. Frankly I enjoy MBN temps because it delays that awful, hot, humid, sticky, hazy, disgusting SER. I'll miss the deep emerald skies this spring. Even with lower pollution, that goes bye-bye in summer! So next week we have a SER but no Plains severe. Texas cut-off low. It is a terribly bitter pair of pills to swallow. Thanks for reading me vent. In lighter news Korean baseball is on ESPN overnights. They don't tape delay so I guess DVR for sports. English Premiere League starts June 1. Not sure if fans or not, but all we care about this side of the Pond is sports on TV. Cheers!
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Yeah the weekend is going to have cold nights. Cold tonight, but no Valley freeze. Friday morning may be saved by incoming precip. Sat/Sun lows MOS is at/below 2m Ts. That will be after the last front (Friday) as the new airmass settles in. Typically MOS is OK after the fronts settle out and airmass settles in. MRX is right to be wary of record cold - and freezes. Silver lining is no severe wx concerns for several days. Depending on the strength of the next SER it might not get in here again, but that's no guarantee. Then by Days 8-10 we are talking AN temps again. If this is the final cold shot, like in winter, could usher in a warmer pattern. If the AN temps are transitory; then, I guess the May mashup continues.
