nrgjeff
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Everything posted by nrgjeff
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Regrettably it looks like more of a heavy rain and flooding event. Disgusting boundary been parked here since Comet Neowise got good. Ugh! Boundary disappointment 1.0 was the Comet. Boundary disappointment 2.0 will be wasting decent flow aloft for early August severe. Rant! On a brighter note, the heat will ease up. CFS is probably too cold, but the ECMWF ensembles and weeklies agree with less intense heat here. +ABNA signal continues to look hot for Canada and the Great Lakes. US Southeast soft spot does line up with the Korea trough @jaxjagman noted earlier. Then up North both Eastern Siberia and Eastern Canada have AN temps. +ABNA has been consistent most of summer so I think it adds credibility to the forecast. The two weeks of heat here was hopefully just a tempo ridge expansion. Now we go back to the more traditional +ABNA. Hotter model runs run the risk of device advection. Thursday evening edit: Euro weeklies once again favor the downshift heat for the South. Canada is warm. US West is hot. Looks like a classic climate change signal. So the year we finally have football weather, will we have football?
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Sunday night weather cooperated so went up Lookout Mountain again. Comet has faded a bit, despite great visibility clear air, perhaps competing with moonlight. Tail appears shorter through binoculars, and it's a struggle unaided eye. Still fun to see our inner solar system visitor. Delicate beauty remains inspiring. Monday we'd intended to see the comet again as afternoon thunderstorm debris cleared by evening. Ooops! New mid-level clouds developed ahead of the trough in the western sky. However the Moon, Jupiter and Saturn were ripe for viewing in the excellent visibility air south and east. Didn't even see the usual wobbles in the 'scope (summer instability) so it was grand. Atmo probably was stabilized and overturned by previous t-showers. Just my daughter and I out back (usually front) so no sharing with the neighbors kids, haha. My plan: comet. God's Plan: planets. Often the spontaneous is the most blessed time. We take! Likely my last comet pictures are below. They are Sunday from Lookout Mountain. I've yet to venture into telescope photography. I will probably still check on Comet Neowise clear nights through the week; but, we said our goodbye Monday right before the cloud. This has been a fun 10-14 days (3 weeks if morning). Next, meteor shower tonight if clear. Comet gets high enough for the Big Dipper combo pic. Tree branch points the way. Try a 'scope?
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Fingers of Death! Stranger Things! Nah I see that often when storms approach ridges. I think it's the extra lift in a humid airmass, added condensation. Harmless but very neat to film. They move.
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Oh I know. The one week we have a great comet, a stationary front parks over Tenn. It's not really the polar front, but it is one stubborn boundary. This is the one week of the year I don't want a boundary. I just keep reminding myself the weather was perfect for the Big One, the total solar eclipse back in August 2017. Possible from Chattanooga to Knoxville west clears out this Saturday evening after some good thunderstorms already overturned the Atmo. No new development. Don't read my lips there., haha. Western sky from Plateau might even salvage this evening but that is a tougher proposition than CHA/TYS. Plateau elevation plus it's less overturned yet. Then I-65 west looks less buoyant on satellite, but need that to hold. I'm cautiously optimistic that spots where several thunderstorms went early (enough to overturn the atmo) the evening may be stable with decreasing clouds. Areas with later thunderstorms of course run more risk of lingering clouds. Would be nice to get a weekend night with the comet, to enjoy it w/o thinking about work the next day.
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Nothing wrong with that comet! Answer to fading panic on Twitter. Moon light will become an issue in a few days, but the comet will be visible through the weekend and likely early next week. Could even go later next week. Moon will then back away again later days, but the moon will also be brighter. Comet will slowly fade, but it has not faded discernibly attm. Picture below has more light pollution because Thursday evening I had to compromise on target. Clouds encroached on Chattanooga and my preferred Lookout / Signal Mountains. Instead dropped into North Georgia between ridges. Still the sky was darker than in town but not as dark as at elevation. Good visibility helped make up for not being on a mountain. Comet Neowise and Milky Way are below. Just think if the comet was overhead like Hyakutake was in 1996. No, I appreciate Neowise. When adjusting for the lighter sky, I think the comet still looks like it did early in the week. No concerns through the weekend, except weather LOL.
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I also read some astronomy Twitter panic over dimming. Is that real, or are they as neurotic as us weather folks? Hobbies are similar so probably, lol! It's definitely dimming in space, releasing less dust and gas farther from the sun. At the same time it's approaching Earth (though not very much so) which would help all else equal (it's not if less dust/gas). Maybe it appears slightly dimming after netting out the effects; maybe it really dropped off. I don't know because I have been clouded out the last two nights (Tue/Wed). Oh but today Thursday in far southeast Tennessee and North Alabama the sky is a deep blue! Could that help? Thank you TD 8 subsidence and pulling in that clear tropical air. I will be dropping south along rural Lookout Mountain tonight. Barring a cloud debacle I'll find out about that dimming. Thunderstorms continue to hold just north of Chattanooga and it appears it'll remain so into evening before they dissipate. Cloud debris is also pushing away from me. Just need to avoid any tall debris southern Middle Tennessee to my northwest. Boundaries remain that way. HSV to MSL should be safe though a boundary is on the Tenn/Bama border. MEM might even clear out. The rest of I-40/81 looks tough BNA, TYS, MRX, TRI. But cloud cover miracles can happen. How about the sky between the clouds. Deep blue up that way too? Here are my pictures from Sunday and Monday evenings. They are not epic comet shots, but meant to preserve approximately what we saw naked eye and binoculars. Fun with trees and cloud, then the closer one. Happy my child found it fine on the family outing, and loves it! Sunday was just-in-time clearing, why one has to gamble sometimes. Monday was fair but not as good visibility. That's why I like to try any good visibility day clouds are less than 30%. You never know!
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Euro weeklies just (finally) followed the CFS cooler in the weeks ahead. Temps look near normal in our Region. Verbatim it's slight below western half Mid South and slight above East and Apps. Nationally (and internationally Canada) core AN anomalies shift back north, which lines up with the forecast +ABNA, driven by the forecast MJO. It's been persistent in the Indian Ocean promoting +ABNA. So, maybe, this was our big heat wave for the summer. Still got weeks to go; we are still in the South. However teleconnections support the downshift next week perhaps being a pattern shift beyond just a break in the stronger heat. Again it's still normal and it's still July and August. Just not nuts.
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Family joined me for Comet Neowise viewing Sunday evening from a rural dark sky spot Lookout Mountain, GA. Believe it's a little bit better than Halley 1986, but not as good as Hyakutake 1996. While far from Hale-Bopp 1997, Neowise is a good comet. I am hoping Neowise improves to closer to Hyakutake quality. Halley < Neowise < Hyakutake < Hale-Bopp IIRC. Right now Neowise is closer to Halley, but I am cautiously optimistic it gets closer to Hyakutake. Probably remains in between; I figure Hale Bopp is pretty unreachable. If Neowise improves past the half-way point between Halley and Hyakutake, we got a big winner! Sky forecast is for southeast Tenn. May be valid for southern Middle Tenn, North Bama, and West Tenn. BNA to TYS MRX TRI may differ. Sunday featured just-in-time JIT clearing following afternoon thundershowers. Monday should JIT clear in the evening. Might go right back up Lookout Mountain. Two work nights in a row means next morning drink more coffee! Tuesday JIT clearing is more suspect. Wed/Thu look pretty cloudy, but things can change with summer pop-up t-shower and debris forecasting. Comet is closest to Earth Thursday; but, I think any improvement will last through the weekend. Should still be good next week through the end of July. Comet gets higher in the sky each evening; therefore, above horizon haze and light. Hoping for more JIT clearing this weekend, with sleep in the mornings! Meteoblue https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/map/precipitation/united-states has a basic cloud cover forecast if you don't already have a preferred model site. It is GFS based though. If you already have a favorite cloud site, probably use what's familiar. Binoculars work in town, including tail, but it's low contrast. Rural dark sky one can see it unaided eye an hour after sunset, northwest sky below Big Dipper. Rural binoculars it is a gorgeous sight. Nucleus jumps out. Tail is delicate and beautiful. One can imagine the comet racing through the solar system. Gonna rank this must-see this year. My no 2020 storm chase is of no concern anymore. Comet in fact rescues 2020 from its overall debacle. I'm comet catching multiple nights the rest of the month!
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Saw Comet NEOWISE Thursday night through binoculars. Though not naked eye from in town, through binoculars it is a (still pretty) dimmer version of the Sirlin photo. For my just checking (from town) outing I picked US Express. Chattanoogans know their parking lot is elevated with an excellent 180 degree view of the western sky. Gee, why else might I go there? in spring Oh yeah @John1122 and All, look northwest below the Big Dipper an hour after sunset, just as twilight is becoming true dark. That's 9 Central 10 Eastern, and it sets about 10 Central 11 Eastern. Memphis maybe a few minutes later than my rough convert for Nashville and Huntsville. Space and other online mags have details. Weekend plans include getting up on a mountain away from the city. Hoping for maybe unaided eye visible. Either way it'll be even better with binoculars. Still think it will be a naked eye object next week, higher out of the haze and lights. (higher each evening) Anyway this weekend Cherokee NF / Southern Apps could have cloud debris issues from afternoon t-showers. This weekend from Chatty I prefer mountains west of town or even the Cumberland Plateau, but the latter may not be necessary if already west of city lights. Later dates next week the forecast can be re-evaluated. Keep going west of town, or seek elevation in the southern Apps. Depends on t-showers. Middle Tennessee and East Tennessee I recommend getting up on a least a ridge to have a better view of the northwest sky after sunset. West Tennessee, just clear view no lights. MS/AL/KY I'd try to find a ridge. Definitely in northwest Georgia. Everyone have a nice weekend and happy comet hunting!
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Good to know @EastKnox you've already spotted it this week. I made no true effort Tuesday eve (front yard) and Wednesday evening became cloudy in Chatty right after I wrote this post. I's thinking, please don't let this be another Met starts thread jinx, lol! Atmo better get this haze / cloud crap out if its system before the comet main show in a few days. Halley was my first, and we always remember our first (comet, tornado, eclipse of each type, Aurora, etc). @Stovepipe that's great class met at night. I remember 4th grade watching a partial eclipse during school hours. We made our own shadow boxes, which I used as much in 2017 as the glasses. It's so flat through the glasses, what's the difference? Until totality of course! Coworker / friend / astronomy buff has also seen Comet Neowise. Good to learn of more people seeing it naked eye and binoculars, vs just long exposure photography. My plan is a sneak peak with binoculars tonight (if fair skies) from exburb fairly close - just see the fuzzball. We will go farther rural this weekend with family for hopefully unaided eye viewing and/or tail through binoculars. Next week you'd think with a 591+ ridge skies will be fair. Maybe heat haze, but fewer t-showers and associated cloud debris. More nights the better! Those expectations are managed. I'm prepared for Halley 2.0, but hoping for something closer to Hyakutake (still no Hale-Bopp). Cautiously optimistic it'll be a real treat this weekend and next week, higher in the darker sky.
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Comet NEOWISE has over-achieved its morning show the last 10-14 days. Yes all caps is the acronym of the NASA program which found it. Comet switches to the evening sky this week. Like the morning show, the evening encore this week is low in the sky and in some twilight. However, the weekend and/or next week could be a grand finale higher in the sky. Comet will come closest to Earth July 23; it's already swung around the sun without breaking up. Wow, good news is actually possible in 2020! It's unlikely to fall apart now; but, it gassing and dust will gradually slow down as it gets farther away from the sun. However it will be getting closer to Earth; so, apparent brightness should be maintained. Plus it'll get above twilight by the weekend into early next week, making it even easier to view. Those could be great viewing days! I remember the Halley meh in the mid-1980s, but they knew it was not going to be great. Then the late 1990s brought Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp, two comet gems! Comet NEOWISE should be somewhere in between. A surprise outgassing could get closer to Hyakutake, but I can't see a Hale-Bopp miracle. At any rate I think NEOWISE deserves a thread! Started the thread here since I don't find one in main Weather Disco. We can talk night sky forecasts. I may take a shot in the exburbs with binoculars tonight Wednesday, because the sky is so clear. Thu/Fri might be scattered t-shower debris. Weekend looks solid. Likely will go all out to a rural location with binoculars and maybe scope. Then maybe a few more times next week. Make it cout!
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Next week I sure hope we don't get a short-wave SER stuck under a GL trough; that would be real heat! Though prone to happen this time of year, happy to report I don't believe it'll happen. If the ridge settles into the Southern Plains, there is heat risk for Memphis and West Tenn. If the ridge is Central Plains or otherwise northwest of our Region, the door is open for easterly waves below the soft underbelly. Oh it'd be humid, but still not intense heat. Plus scattered thundershowers. All those scenarios are more valid East Tenn.
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Thank you @PowellVolz for the recon. That's great we also stayed at Bearfoot on the golf course, though I don't golf in summer there. It's nice rentals and near good restaurants. Not quite as touristy as the heart of MB. South Carolina was smart to put in that express way so one can get to other parts of MB quickly. We'd probably go to the Gulf Coast in fall. Always playing games with the tropics that time of year. However I love the weather. It's not as hot. Sun is lower so less sunburn. Still warm enough and the ocean is plenty warm. Years past fall is not as crowded as summer. We'll see if everyone else is thinking the same thing. Only trouble is fall is past spout season. I'll pass on tropical. Just give me general thunderstorms, lol!
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BOHICA! That's a scientific term for July gonna July. If you believe that, I have some beachfront property in Kansas. Welp. Maybe we can get it over with during the climo core of summer, and actually have a fall. Must. Think. Positive. It'll probably drag into August. July and August correlate fairly well, especially the steady heat like is forecast. Real peaky stuff can fade out in Aug. Doubt this year. Don't see 100 degree highs with the ridge centered northwest of here. Do see consistent steady 90s about half of which might be 95s (not including TYS, MRX). Good time to be in TRI, lol! Don't get me started on the humidity. I know I say this every year, but isn't this bad even for the South? I mean we're not Deep South / Gulf Coast. Dews should east off the mid-70s to more like upper 60s (afternoons) when the heat gets going. Still low 70s mornings. Closing on a bright note. Sunday! July 12. Can we get enough turning with height? I know that's serious weenie wishing for NW flow in July. Need something to hold onto right now.
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I think that was trying @PowellVolz from the clouds. Spouts go on shear lines, not really sups as you know. You bet I'm always checking at the beach, lol! Another take-away here, looks like beaches are not too crowded. My odds of taking the family later this year just increased. Thanks both also @EastKnox for some ground truth. Both took excellent pictures too! I love a good storm after my beach time. IMPORTANT UPDATE: Chattanooga FC will be on the CW Saturday night. Believe that's just in Chatty but maybe some other CWs will carry it. No fans at Finley, but we got soccer again!!
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Nice picture! Is she your daughter? Precious! It's funny I never know where in life forum members are. I've a daughter who loves the outdoors. She's a bit older, is every bit the explorer too!
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I was hoping for just 2-3 weeks of harsh summer, but I should know better in developing Nina. Euro weeklies just cued up some Bananarama Cruel Summer. CFS was mild late July but I'm afraid that is too good to be true. Truth may end up in between. This +ABNA pattern wants to hammer the Great Lakes and Canada. Puts us on the soft underbelly of the ridge. Not too hot, but humid as all hell. Next week may shed light. Euro has been consistently intense. Record CDDs (not high temps) but national CDDs on mainly low temps and solid consistent heat. If that heat falters (like a couple previous attempts) carry on status quo. If that heat comes in, we could have a cruel July both South and North. I'm not sure if I'd like a break in August at the expense of possible September, or just get it over with core of summer. Come late August the answer would be clear, lol core summer option in the rear view mirror. Oh well it's summer in the South. We caught some breaks up to this point. Might as well get it over with. Only 6-7 weeks of really bad climo.
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Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21
nrgjeff replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I like it! All hail the guts to put out detailed thoughts months ahead. Agree December is probably the best shot at sustained BN temps, along with bookend weeks of Novie and January. ABNA index is another consideration. Keep a warm North and our source is wrecked. True Alaska / Yukon may be colder, but it'd have to traverse a warm southern Canada. If the Northern US lacks snowcover, modification kills the cold airmass. La Nina influences may show more later in winter late January and February. Yeah a SER would be a drag. I'm OK if it's sunny - better than cloudy and mild. Perhaps by November or early December we'll know a secondary pattern - and hope it is one that interrupts the SER. European monthlies are on fire January. Good grief! Glad it's the last month and pretty much zero correlation with actual wx. -
Guess the really mild lovely weather couldn't last forever. However as Carvers says above, Return to Reality might not be that bad. I also want to tie into Jax above. ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern could keep the hottest anomalies North. Current ABNA phase (off-and-on) is ridge Northeast Asia (North China and northward) and from the Great Lakes to Central / Eastern Canada. The ABNA is a little different road to South normal (vs harsh AN temps). Ridging is more North than West. However sloshing around puts the ridge West at times. CFS is all about that ridge North scenario. ECMWF weeklies still wants to introduce slightly AN temps here in July. Be nice if they were reversed. However the ECMWF has not been anything really special recently. Both weekly products just been prodding along. This has been a nice mild week, a great relief after that Cristobal humidity. Next week though warmer, humidity may stay reasonable (for here). Following week going into the Fourth could be more humid. East Tennessee should have another nice evening (Friday) rain cooled. Everyone have a great weekend!
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KCHA dewpoint is 75. Spaceballs scale is Humid, Gross, Ridiculous, and Ludicrous. Today is Ludicrous. How many days until Halloween? Takes that long to cool off these days. Weekend does look nice though! MORE: So thankful for the second Plains trough behind Cristobal; otherwise, we'd be stuck with these dewpoints a while. Instead it'll be pretty reasonable for about a week. I don't even care we missed out on severe with the front. Thankful the dews are coming down!
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According to TVA social media, new trails are open at South Holston Reservoir. It is a new multi-use trail system. Weekend should dry out but it'll be hot!
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The lamenting in the Plains chasing community is off the chart. Final stats are somewhat closure, and somewhat more reason to whine, lol! Hurricane season is ramping up and tropical fans are excited. How do I feel? Picture Clint Eastwood on his porch in Gran Torino.
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Looks reasonable. After the current KW passes through the Western Hemisphere, the Pacific looks open for more tropical easterlies. Then La Nina might tip its hand. We are past the spring predictability barrier. Subsurface obs and model forecasts all line up well for La Nina in winter.
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And with AAM sinking, textbook would be SER. However that looks disrupted by yet another closed low. Who cares if it's tropical or not? Same old same old 2020. Still looks hot over our region though. And an unseasonably deep trough from the Rockies into the Plains gets wasted again if all those progs are right. This could have been a bonkers year, but almost doesn't count.
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They do mention the Tennessee Valley twice, or on two days. We'll see. Ohio Valley could get it too. Everything is pretty unidirectional upstairs, but there is flow for wind or hail. I was looking back at the May 31, 1985 outbreak in Ohio, Penn, and NY State. They had just a little turning from WNW 500 mb to WSW 850 mb. Intriguing. That's not in the cards this week. However I will keep it in mind balance of June north of here.
