nrgjeff

After the closed low fest, hot summer SER and humid with all the left over ground moisture. Then blowtorch next winter. See you in April 2021.

I like the last two days. Tropical bubbly clouds and a breeze. If you really imagine hard, we're on the slopes of Hawaii mountains. I know I'm friggin bored!

Super Nina winter blowtorch. Fades by spring. No severe. Guess who's despondent? Finally threw in the flag no chase trip. Since the Plains May has been DOA 5/7 years in a row, it's time to take Dixie seriously and just chase around here in April.

The high temperature anomalies forecast under clouds are very impressive early next week. I can do without the clouds; but, another delay of SER summer is fine with me. Oh yeah this is the Obs thread. New York > Oklahoma severe today. I'd love to sit at the intersection of the Hudson River Valley (visibility) and their warm front shear.

Looks up May and June 1956 in the Plains, lol! Nah with covid-19 and that awful cut-off low in Texas, I think no Plains chase trip this year. No way to manage the covid-19 risk without camping in the car and eating tuna fish and crackers. When I chase I like my breakfast buffet and evening drinks - both part of the experience. Just can't do it! Meanwhile it's gonna get hot here next week. Frankly I enjoy MBN temps because it delays that awful, hot, humid, sticky, hazy, disgusting SER. I'll miss the deep emerald skies this spring. Even with lower pollution, that goes bye-bye in summer! So next week we have a SER but no Plains severe. Texas cut-off low. It is a terribly bitter pair of pills to swallow. Thanks for reading me vent. In lighter news Korean baseball is on ESPN overnights. They don't tape delay so I guess DVR for sports. English Premiere League starts June 1. Not sure if fans or not, but all we care about this side of the Pond is sports on TV. Cheers!

Yeah the weekend is going to have cold nights. Cold tonight, but no Valley freeze. Friday morning may be saved by incoming precip. Sat/Sun lows MOS is at/below 2m Ts. That will be after the last front (Friday) as the new airmass settles in. Typically MOS is OK after the fronts settle out and airmass settles in. MRX is right to be wary of record cold - and freezes. Silver lining is no severe wx concerns for several days. Depending on the strength of the next SER it might not get in here again, but that's no guarantee. Then by Days 8-10 we are talking AN temps again. If this is the final cold shot, like in winter, could usher in a warmer pattern. If the AN temps are transitory; then, I guess the May mashup continues.

Old Hickory is itching for some action. Cooking boundary in May often produces. However the LLJ is DOA east of I-65. It's weak west of there. Probably would just maintain any MCS with straight line winds up to I-65. It's really not strong enough for tornadoes; but, you never know around a boundary in May. Pulse type thunderstorms are progged over here near KCHA. We've got zero LLJ out the window or on the models. These Cu are just sitting like in the middle of summer, no movement.

Brutal Mutual aid restoration crews have been so busy this year. We still have work going on in the EF-3 damage area of Chattanooga, basically rebuilding from scratch. However most everyone else was restored within 10 days after Easter. I'm still amazed at how quickly they rebuilt the main lines. Why can't road construction be that fast?

Looks like the real deal to me. Funny everything goes earlier than season this year. Nashville tornado along an east-west boundary in March seemed more like a May set-up. Now here we are with a quasi-derecho situation almost a month earlier than normal. I'm not saying it'll be a true derecho, but it's an MCS riding / sliding ESE on the nose of high CAPE (for early May) with moist southwest winds feeding the beast. Storms sinking south of, drifting away from, the upper-level wave may be what prevents the strongest scenario. Should be several damaging wind reports in Tenn. Hopefully nice shelfie pix are incoming.

That stubborn 3 region is killing my Plains plans. Agree the KW may cut SSTs but it's a tough area for MJO convection. Perhaps late May the new pulse in the IO will have more influence. Then for next winter hopefully not the dreaded warm version of Nina. I'm OK with sunny SER but the lack of snow is boring. Conundrum for sure!

Though low level winds are veered off, today could be interesting in the Shelfie category along I-40 especially Plateau and points west. Winds surface to 850 all look similar west of south. However there's decent speed for May especially higher up. Good recipe for straight line winds with the CAPE building. Some CAMs have cells hooking into southeast Tenn. Others have things stabilizing from the main I-40 show and outflow. Finally there's the question about the main show/line east of the Plateau. Can it get to Knoxvegas? Cell and outflow interaction may determine how fast things stabilize this evening. At least we have something to track. We could use a break from tornadoes, so straight line wind is acceptable.

GFS is probably wrong - though it's been consistent between runs. I know it can score coups in cold weather patterns. However it's driven by the track of a single system; so, I'll stick with my default GFS fade. Overall I'm getting a little nervous about May in the Plains. However the first two weeks are not my concern. I need a change-up for late May.

Yeah it just clouded up over both areas of surface convergence. Thundershowers are in progress, but it's not not energetic enough. The clouds just blossom on the loop. That'd be great in winter, but lol in spring. Also see Windspeed right above. Remember to read SPC discussions, even on the junk days, since it helps discern the good the bad and the ugly. Local office discussions often add more detail. Find it on weather.gov/mrx and the drop-down menu from forecasts to Forecaster's Discussion. Weather pattern turns incredibly boring after this. See y'all in a couple weeks, lol!

Dewpoints are way behind schedule compared to all 3 CAMs NAM/WRF/HRRR. North Bama dews are in the 50s; it's progged low 60s Td by this time 14Z. I was hoping for a repeat of Saturday structure; but, looks like no dice. Though the LLJ is screaming (and mixing down) it may be shunted east this afternoon. Thunderstorms will still develop. Two shortwaves are noted coming through the flow. The first is already into Georgia marked by mid-level cloud signature. Then we have new lift coming from Louisiana, marked by the ribs in the high cloud deck. Mid-levels will also cool with time this afternoon. Thunderstorms yes. Fireworks, probably not.

SPC is right to get a 5% down to North Texas on the update. Little triple point will be there late afternoon; but, the cold front will overtake it by evening. I like the Texas (or southern OK) triple point for a virtual target. Then there's Iowa, the source of so many chaser inside jokes!

My heat pump came on a few times last night. Cloudy cool day then clear cold night. Holston I was counting on you bringing me a Rockies trough in May, lol! I'm guessing Kansas will be open by late May, if Tennessee is opening now. Texas is on the Tennessee time table. I don't care about Oklahoma and the chaser crowds, lol!

Always Cookville. Photos on Twitter look grungy though. Jives with lots of rain wrap around on radar up there. Documented this foot / beaver tail around Ooltewah, before following toward Etowah. No touchdown, I saw the base at times driving. This is where I could safely pull over. It was a low-top mini-sup with tilted updraft. No true wall cloud, but it's gorgeous.

Nice photos @Jax! LP-ish with structure in the Southeast. Well it's 2020 and anything can happen!

That might be helpful for my Kansas concerns in May. Looking even farther ahead, though quite imprecise, another wave of convection is flaring in the western IO. It's behind the DL wave Jax writes about. I'm hoping my second wave is crossing Indonesia (MJO maritime sub-cont) about late May. By then I feel the SER will be attempting a return, probably more so than NWP shows out weeks 3-5. If Holston is camping out West, Rockies trough LOL. Could be the ol' chaser rose colored goggles, but it's all on the satellites covering the Indian Ocean. Cheers!

I agree with MRX above. Was that on NWS MRX page at one point? I saw it elsewhere. Meanwhile a triple point has pushed from Miss/Bama into southern Middle Tenn. Should continue over the Upper Plateau into northeast Tenn. Don't let the chart scare though. Still agree with only MRGL/SLIGHT risk thanks to pitiful dewpoints.

SPC Day 2 even mentions the Cumberland Plateau. Elevation puts it closer to the LLJ. So, I guess the Cumberland Trail is open?

Marginal. Saturday. That's a go! Of course it's garbage weak moisture return and all. However a surface trough and backed winds tracks through (during the daytime - what a novel idea!) Tenn. Could be low top, low probability, but decent visibility. So much for the latter on Thursday, lol! If the 12Z guidance is the same to more robust, Saturday might be a chase day. Um, urr, I mean, go to one of those State Parks that are opening.

Feels like Kansas. Oh wait, here the tornadoes are at night though. Thursday morning was exceptionally windy in KCHA.

That's some tough chasing terrain near the Red River (both sides) 2-4 counties east of I-35. Boundary could lift into OK, but that's the tougher terrain. Texas side offers higher dewpoint fuel and more ag clearings, though again not great. Trouble could be capping in TX but depends on surface heating. Be mindful of Red River crossings. Cell motion might be to the ESE, vs the usual NE. Don't get trapped on the river! If I still lived in DFW I'd be Paris bound this afternoon. Instead I just sit in Dixie and wait to get hit at night. Still salty from Easter.

Re: the Hanks video, I'm amazed the power stayed on. Traffic light appears to be working right after the tornado crossed the power lines; however, we only get a second or two of that before he moves. Later in the video power lines elsewhere are down. He is too close though. Tornadoes can and do rapidly/instantly widen. Bad move there. Moving on, today has a conditional Slight for parts of the Valley and Plateau. Is today Thursday? Anyway new development could be low top, low probability, but high visibility. And in the daytime - what a novel idea around here! Roger Edwards says it best. Here's our section of the 13Z Day 1. Severe potential still exists with a possible second episode, along/ahead of the cold front from the Tennesseee Valley region southward, but is very conditional. Substantial stabilization to near the Gulf Coast is associated with the leading MCS. Only a narrow back door of at least marginally favorable theta-e advection and related airmass recovery will exist to the west, which comes with offsetting influences: 1. Southwesterly near-surface flow ahead of the front will yield the best trajectories for theta-e recovery around the morning MCS outflow, but also contribute to relatively reduced low-level shear and convergence. 2. Any southerly to southeasterly trajectories from the MCS passage will be more convectively stabilized. (no dice there - me) Still, a narrow plume of favorable buoyancy may develop -- with MLCAPE ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg in the north where deep lift, cooling aloft and shear will be greatest, to around 2000 J/kg in the south under weaker ascent and shear. With uncertain coverage, duration and intensity of convection in this regime, the risk level is not as great as farther southeast, and should diminish markedly after dark.