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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Oh I saw a webinar yesterday about SSW and related events including early season, last warning, and something called reflection. I'm sorry I can't share it. However the reflection case resembles the ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern, which is also related to charts Jax shares including Asia and North America. All 3 tie in. Good stuff! Reflection is both horizontal and vertical. The vertical requires the stratopause be in a certain state. Warm energy from the West Pac Tropics pumps up a ridge in eastern Siberia. China gets cold. Pattern reflects a wavelength downstream over North America. Canada mild USA cold. At the right wavelength looking at Asia weather charts can help with USA forecasting.
  2. nrgjeff
    Eddie Van Halen passed away. I'm going to be pretty bearish for a few days. Much above normal temps this winter. No snow. Nocturnal tornadoes.
  3. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Looks like MDT Nina. Oh yeah Jax our posts are three weeks apart. Definitely a different sequence. At any rate, tee up a SER most of winter. Cutters. Severe wx. SOS
  4. nrgjeff
    That's good news, except for more of those snow clown maps on Twitter, lol! Euro at times gets even more carried away than the GFS, depending on the vendor algorithm. Baseball wild card was fun. Games all day like March Madness. Still have a ton of sports overlapping now with the NBA Finals, MLB playoffs, and lots of football. Ironic that after missing sports for several months, we now enjoy a huge sports period that started with the NHL and NBA playoffs. Now college football is full steam ahead.
  5. nrgjeff
    Yes 1989 was the winter of record back in KC. All-time record low was set two nights in a row at -23 F. However that's for MCI since 1973. I think Downtown MKC has a colder older record, but that'll stand due to the urban heat island now. Apparently the 1989 wavelength was fairly big if Kansas and Tennessee followed the same pattern, vs cutter city over here. The blowtorch second half was the same too. Wow back in the days we had full latitude troughs for everyone! Other big years 1985 was more over here, cold but nothing spectacular in the Central Plains. 2000 was more there than here. I was about to put this in Fall; then, realized it's winter. All the out-of-region stuff I'll go Banter. Now in 2020 I'll go stubborn SER for at least southeast Tenn. I could see northeast Tennessee doing fine in La Nina. Then when the trough is Central US, a nice Mid South winter hammer. Everyone but CHA and HSV. Barring a one-day miracle.
  6. nrgjeff
    Around 3:30 Eastern today Friday a tornado touched down around Myrtle Beach / North Myrtle Beach. Plenty of stills and videos on Twitter since it's a tourist area. #scwx will bring it right up.
  7. nrgjeff
    Yeah the +ABNA does have some blocking as Carvers notes. However the Alaska / northwest Canada source region is on fire. +ABNA can get it done down here locally with split flow, but that's not usually good for Region wide fun. Plus I'm just a very skeptical bear. If I can find just one reason to go warm, against 3 cold, I'll go warm. It is the South. Everything lines up, or cue up Toad the Wet Sprocket 1992, something's always wrong. Given a decent La Nina and QBO fail I'm seriously warm winter at work, no joking. However fall leaf season looks superb!
  8. nrgjeff
    European weekly charts line up with the cooler than normal outlook through the first 10 days of October. However, it ends there. Rest of the weeks are slightly warmer than normal. AN heights stretch from the West across Canada. Return of the +ABNA. Cancel winter? Well, this is the fall thread. Good news is the next few weeks will be good for leaves turning on time. Just avoid any wet wind storms. Early next week is not an issue. Same system in 15 days would be awful.
  9. nrgjeff
    Latest QBO coming in positive. The -QBO appears to have failed like a few years back. Looks like a long mild winter. Might as well look to Dixey Alley action. Wake me up in March for basketball and storms.
  10. nrgjeff
    I want to be a cynic and say it failed the last two times in the 11-15 day. However this time it has plenty of teleconnection support. Also East Asia looks more friendly upstream. That's just for the next 2-3 weeks. For winter, revert to cynical skeptic.
  11. nrgjeff
    I felt the same watching the Chiefs. When they looked awful I actually said out loud, I wish CBS would have saved me the pain and just shown Baltimore here! Things turned around of course. Why can't we have normal wins anymore? Always with a side order of heart attack, lol! Meanwhile the Saints choked last night. What is it with the NFC South? Can't stand the Raiders!
  12. nrgjeff
    Atlanta Falcons meltdown reminds me of cold November 2019; then, mild winter 2020. Why do the Chiefs have to give me a heart attack before winning? Titans kind of did too as JAX rallied, but the Titans held. Baltimore looks good. Tonight, Nola please beat the worthless Raiders! Do we have a Fall banter thread?
  13. nrgjeff
    I like John's cynicism. I strongly approve that message! Remember November 2019 setting the table for this epic snowy below normal temps winter? Sure was a nice early spring! OK I will try to share a shred of optimism. Only takes one day. Chattanooga Magic Saturday February 8.
  14. nrgjeff
    I saw the same. Weeklies do look blocky; however, we still might have to hurry up and wait on wavelengths and other features. If the Canada ridge goes mega-ridge, we are back in that +ABNA summer weather pattern. Siberia is also doing +ABNA things on the weeklies. Fortunately in October that's not as humid. Temps near normal, but no big trough either. Also, to give fair time, haha... There are some 16-30 day analogs with blocking and the +PNA and +WPO that go pretty cool. +WPO might be meh in winter; but at these early fall wavelengths, it's actually cold East. Selfishly I'm hoping for the normal/warm scenario. While I love cool mornings, warm afternoons get me more in the mood for fall foliage. In the relatively shorter-term there's Wilfred/22 for next week. ECMWF favors a track between that of Laura north and Sally south. Caution a 7 day forecast; but, inland storm chasing hopes always spring enternal!
  15. nrgjeff
    More positive news from MEM to BNA. Depending on wavelength and the like southeast Tenn could still be in the SER screw job.
  16. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Big trade winds push in progress. Moderate La Nina is within striking range. Still feel like a good weak Nina. No borderline.
  17. nrgjeff
    I saw some 1965 hype, but didn't check snow. Severe wx that spring, lol! My guess is Memphis and Nashville will do OK this winter. Southeast Tenn will be blanked, or have an upper low surprise. All or nothing, lol!
  18. nrgjeff
    European monthly charts are classic La Nina, except a little better shot at cold Jan vs Dec. Verbatim that's great for a chance at snow. Jan > Dec. Feb-April annihilate Dixie Alley.
  19. nrgjeff
    It will eventually come through, but might be limping and weak. That kind of cold anomaly in the Plains will usually bleed southeast even this time of year. My biggest gripe is the awful evolution of the trough overall. Not only do we get robbed of a true cold front, no severe set-up in the Midwest. Could it be any worse? Actually I should not ask it's 2020, lol!
  20. nrgjeff
    The ever slowing cold front. What takes longer? 1. Breaking a SER 2. Waiting at the DMV 3. Getting covid test results No I have not been exposed or sick, but I just could not resist number 3.
  21. nrgjeff
    A boundary cooking all day makes my heart wish I'm there. Terrain? I'm used to it in East Tenn.
  22. nrgjeff
    Mid Atlantic is on Great Plains schedule. Hurry up and wait! Actually it's bullish for tornadoes to maximize heating. 700 mb temps seem just right there. HRRR finally got itself together. Believe late morning runs initialized poorly due to West Virginia clouds. Issue seems to have resolved. Such high resolution giveth and taketh. Morning Kentucky shortwave is approaching, as seen with things percolating over in West Virginia. The lift is coming... Another reason for the Plains wait might be the left front/exit of a jet max passed. Now await the right rear/entrance lift. That's the KY/WV wave and progged 700 mb vort. Other than tough terrain, I really wish I'm in FREDERICK today, with road options from there. Google Maps terrain looks no more difficult than here in East Tenn. High dewpoints should promote supercells. Virginia might veer a bit. However SRH will be more than enough on that Maryland boundary and into far northern Virginia.
  23. nrgjeff
    Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol! Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable. Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too. If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go! Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck!
  24. nrgjeff
    And the 06Z GFS and both Ensembles hang up like the ECMWF. Do you know what happened? Meteorologist (me) promised / jinxed football weather, lol! Actually trouble could have started all the way upstream in the Western Pacific. Typhoons going west instead of recurving. Korea is getting slammed. US trough goes Central instead of East. Naturally the ECMWF picked up on this 48 hours before the clumsy GFS. Please do not re-post the picture. Thanks!
  25. nrgjeff
    Memphis had some drama Wednesday eve. They tornado warned Arkansas just west of town. Good thing it did not pan out. Heading right to the most populated area. Saw a nice shelfie on Twitter or somewhere. Clarksville also had a suspect cell. Never warned and didn't go severe. Friend sought out the base from Austin Pea U. Not bad. So, PowellVolz we have another severe enthusiast? Jax is another one of us. Everybody join us. You do not know the power of the Dark Side!
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