nrgjeff
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Everything posted by nrgjeff
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Thank you @PowellVolz for the recon. That's great we also stayed at Bearfoot on the golf course, though I don't golf in summer there. It's nice rentals and near good restaurants. Not quite as touristy as the heart of MB. South Carolina was smart to put in that express way so one can get to other parts of MB quickly. We'd probably go to the Gulf Coast in fall. Always playing games with the tropics that time of year. However I love the weather. It's not as hot. Sun is lower so less sunburn. Still warm enough and the ocean is plenty warm. Years past fall is not as crowded as summer. We'll see if everyone else is thinking the same thing. Only trouble is fall is past spout season. I'll pass on tropical. Just give me general thunderstorms, lol!
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BOHICA! That's a scientific term for July gonna July. If you believe that, I have some beachfront property in Kansas. Welp. Maybe we can get it over with during the climo core of summer, and actually have a fall. Must. Think. Positive. It'll probably drag into August. July and August correlate fairly well, especially the steady heat like is forecast. Real peaky stuff can fade out in Aug. Doubt this year. Don't see 100 degree highs with the ridge centered northwest of here. Do see consistent steady 90s about half of which might be 95s (not including TYS, MRX). Good time to be in TRI, lol! Don't get me started on the humidity. I know I say this every year, but isn't this bad even for the South? I mean we're not Deep South / Gulf Coast. Dews should east off the mid-70s to more like upper 60s (afternoons) when the heat gets going. Still low 70s mornings. Closing on a bright note. Sunday! July 12. Can we get enough turning with height? I know that's serious weenie wishing for NW flow in July. Need something to hold onto right now.
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I think that was trying @PowellVolz from the clouds. Spouts go on shear lines, not really sups as you know. You bet I'm always checking at the beach, lol! Another take-away here, looks like beaches are not too crowded. My odds of taking the family later this year just increased. Thanks both also @EastKnox for some ground truth. Both took excellent pictures too! I love a good storm after my beach time. IMPORTANT UPDATE: Chattanooga FC will be on the CW Saturday night. Believe that's just in Chatty but maybe some other CWs will carry it. No fans at Finley, but we got soccer again!!
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Nice picture! Is she your daughter? Precious! It's funny I never know where in life forum members are. I've a daughter who loves the outdoors. She's a bit older, is every bit the explorer too!
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I was hoping for just 2-3 weeks of harsh summer, but I should know better in developing Nina. Euro weeklies just cued up some Bananarama Cruel Summer. CFS was mild late July but I'm afraid that is too good to be true. Truth may end up in between. This +ABNA pattern wants to hammer the Great Lakes and Canada. Puts us on the soft underbelly of the ridge. Not too hot, but humid as all hell. Next week may shed light. Euro has been consistently intense. Record CDDs (not high temps) but national CDDs on mainly low temps and solid consistent heat. If that heat falters (like a couple previous attempts) carry on status quo. If that heat comes in, we could have a cruel July both South and North. I'm not sure if I'd like a break in August at the expense of possible September, or just get it over with core of summer. Come late August the answer would be clear, lol core summer option in the rear view mirror. Oh well it's summer in the South. We caught some breaks up to this point. Might as well get it over with. Only 6-7 weeks of really bad climo.
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Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21
nrgjeff replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I like it! All hail the guts to put out detailed thoughts months ahead. Agree December is probably the best shot at sustained BN temps, along with bookend weeks of Novie and January. ABNA index is another consideration. Keep a warm North and our source is wrecked. True Alaska / Yukon may be colder, but it'd have to traverse a warm southern Canada. If the Northern US lacks snowcover, modification kills the cold airmass. La Nina influences may show more later in winter late January and February. Yeah a SER would be a drag. I'm OK if it's sunny - better than cloudy and mild. Perhaps by November or early December we'll know a secondary pattern - and hope it is one that interrupts the SER. European monthlies are on fire January. Good grief! Glad it's the last month and pretty much zero correlation with actual wx. -
Guess the really mild lovely weather couldn't last forever. However as Carvers says above, Return to Reality might not be that bad. I also want to tie into Jax above. ABNA Asia Bering Sea North American pattern could keep the hottest anomalies North. Current ABNA phase (off-and-on) is ridge Northeast Asia (North China and northward) and from the Great Lakes to Central / Eastern Canada. The ABNA is a little different road to South normal (vs harsh AN temps). Ridging is more North than West. However sloshing around puts the ridge West at times. CFS is all about that ridge North scenario. ECMWF weeklies still wants to introduce slightly AN temps here in July. Be nice if they were reversed. However the ECMWF has not been anything really special recently. Both weekly products just been prodding along. This has been a nice mild week, a great relief after that Cristobal humidity. Next week though warmer, humidity may stay reasonable (for here). Following week going into the Fourth could be more humid. East Tennessee should have another nice evening (Friday) rain cooled. Everyone have a great weekend!
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KCHA dewpoint is 75. Spaceballs scale is Humid, Gross, Ridiculous, and Ludicrous. Today is Ludicrous. How many days until Halloween? Takes that long to cool off these days. Weekend does look nice though! MORE: So thankful for the second Plains trough behind Cristobal; otherwise, we'd be stuck with these dewpoints a while. Instead it'll be pretty reasonable for about a week. I don't even care we missed out on severe with the front. Thankful the dews are coming down!
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According to TVA social media, new trails are open at South Holston Reservoir. It is a new multi-use trail system. Weekend should dry out but it'll be hot!
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The lamenting in the Plains chasing community is off the chart. Final stats are somewhat closure, and somewhat more reason to whine, lol! Hurricane season is ramping up and tropical fans are excited. How do I feel? Picture Clint Eastwood on his porch in Gran Torino.
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Looks reasonable. After the current KW passes through the Western Hemisphere, the Pacific looks open for more tropical easterlies. Then La Nina might tip its hand. We are past the spring predictability barrier. Subsurface obs and model forecasts all line up well for La Nina in winter.
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And with AAM sinking, textbook would be SER. However that looks disrupted by yet another closed low. Who cares if it's tropical or not? Same old same old 2020. Still looks hot over our region though. And an unseasonably deep trough from the Rockies into the Plains gets wasted again if all those progs are right. This could have been a bonkers year, but almost doesn't count.
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They do mention the Tennessee Valley twice, or on two days. We'll see. Ohio Valley could get it too. Everything is pretty unidirectional upstairs, but there is flow for wind or hail. I was looking back at the May 31, 1985 outbreak in Ohio, Penn, and NY State. They had just a little turning from WNW 500 mb to WSW 850 mb. Intriguing. That's not in the cards this week. However I will keep it in mind balance of June north of here.
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Oak Ridge had AN rain in May. Seems TYS just got left out. Otherwise it has been quite wet in East Tenn. I think we are finally entering a more typical summer pattern. Next front looks like a stall rather than pass. Nice and humid by then too.
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The wet has been nuts. A THIRD in a row record rainfall year is within reach in some spots. Rainfall needs to be .4" above normal each of the months the rest of the year. That is not yet a high probability outcome. However a tropical cyclone could nearly clinch it - barring a severe flash drought. NUTS!
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Looks like a beautiful shelf cloud with scud underneath. I see that often in East Tenn. Regrettably/Fortunately (depending on one's perspective) it's not dangerous and not a tornado. Looking ahead, desperation has me watching for a tropical cyclone landfall next weekend or later. If it's central Gulf I might be interested in the outer bands supported by robust LLJ like winds off the surface. Zero interest in a landfall intercept, but maybe right/east side tornadoes. The 2020 debacle continues. No Plains chase. Almost hit overnight at home. Upper Midwest death ridge. Tropical temptation desperation.
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Today has an enticing surface set-up. Looks at upper air charts and forecasts. Unidirectional. Pukes up breakfast!
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NASA and Space-X like the least diurnally favorable time of day for June in Florida. I know other non-weather factors go into the launch window, including the ISS position. Still, it's so 2020. Eventually they will launch between thundershowers. It'll be so exciting. I remember in 1981 watching Space Shuttle Columbia, after a couple delays. Parents were so excited to get back into Space after a 5 year hiatus since Skylab. Now we experience it after an even longer 9 year hiatus. And stupid Putin can stop with his silly trampoline comments. Hey Vlad, who's been to the Moon?
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I agree with CLL if anything. Cells northwest are in a fresh environment, but lower dews and veered surface winds. CLL is backed and humid in the South Texas tradition. If that beast does not break up a bit it'll be low visibility along the line. When all else fails, the view from the Texas A&M Weather Lab is good.
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Oh I forgot about early terminating El Nino. Hope springs eternal Upper Midwest, this year! Oh my that Texas hail would have been terrifying, coming through the roof and ceiling.
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I have a lake in my back yard. Welp. At least I have my own wetlands preserve with social distancing, lol!
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Good year for VZ to give 15G data April and May. Too bad I didn't use mine chasing. Come on Verizon, June too!
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Yeah I think we'll Nina this winter. KW will delay things a bit for summer. However the eastern Pac is in full easterly mode. Ventrice put something on Twitter including the Pac and Atlantic. I didn't comment, but it screams hot humid SER this summer. My previous negativity aside, La Nina would tee up more Dixie Alley severe next spring. Saving it for the Plains seems silly. Guess we chase the Jungle in April! Finally, Jax, this is all petty stuff compared to cancer. Praying your wife beats that, and praying for your whole family's strength through the battle.
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Definitely a tornado above. NWS concurred on Twitter and by email. Note the average size wall cloud structure. It's not some broad shelf cloud and scud. It's the real deal!
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Kansas Saturday is all-or-nothing. Could be a beautiful cell or two on DL bulge near outflow intersection. Could be blue sky cap bust. I'm not a big fan of the cold front in Nebraska, unless another boundary intersection is present - quite possible even if it's just the synoptic triple point. Oklahoma convects, overcomes warm 850 mb, but upper support is meager. Saturday is obviously a local chase day. Still in all of 2020 I have yet to go more than 60 minutes away from my front step. Easter night almost came to me - not good! Couple days of East Tennessee low top low probability but good visibility days. Never chased true Dixie. Saved it for May Plains. Ooops!!
