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Showing results for tags 'model consensus'.
We now stand around 48 hours from snow falling in the area according to models. Anafrontal moisture will linger and allow the colder air to catch up, but how much cold and how much moisture remains the eternal question in our region. According to most model suites, plenty of both, but even though we are 48 hours out, models have been particularly bad at sniffing out actual snow events the last two or three years. So even with multiple model consensus that accumulating snow will happen, at best we can say "who knows?" at this point regarding how much, if any accumulates. Right now, Southern Arkansas to SEKY/SWVA look to be in play and the NAM is just namming it's heart out, having just delivered another juicy run for the region, especially mid and western areas of the Valley. WFO in the area remain rightfully skeptical, but are beginning to mention post frontal snow being possible, though in far less amounts than models are willing to churn out. Will it come to pass or go poof? Only the next 48-72 hours will tell. Still, our third potential event and it's not even solar winter yet, so things seem to be off to a good start.