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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Thank you! We are Plateau bound Saturday. Have to figure the Smokies were stripped in the High Wind Warning. @John1122 what's the best elevation? I'm wondering somewhere close or haul up toward Frozen Head. Closer is ideal since we know the less crowded spots of the Plateau. Everyone, happy foliage. Remember cloudy can still yield excellent photography. Though I still prefer sunny, we take what we get.
  2. nrgjeff
    We need a rave glowstick emoji / reaction for events like above. Meanwhile Chattanooga feels like Wichita this morning. Wind is blowing from the south and it's stiff. Started right at 8am. MRX with the precision advisories, haha!
  3. nrgjeff
    I was waiting for peak up there. Looks like I waited too long. It's peak but ruined. When did fall foliage become as frustrating as storm chasing? Meanwhile the Gulf Coast got hammered Wednesday. Surprising contrast on not so grungy tornadoes.
  4. nrgjeff
    Welp. Fall foliage goes down the shitter in the southern Apps. Hopefully the Cumberland Plateau does much better holding foliage.
  5. nrgjeff
    Anyway John is right about November correlation to winter. October is worthless. November tends to correlate with the balance of winter, Dec-Feb. Not every year, but over the years November and bal-winter have a decent correlation coefficient. March always does what March wants to do, haha! Deterministic models, Ensembles, and Weeklies all seem to want to start November cold. That's only the first week or two, and not the whole month. However it's baby steps if one is eyeing the November and balance of winter correlation. GFS wants to get mild by mid-Nov. GOA low yuck. Euro is still cool-ish. Canadian wants to reload cold, with another ridge poking into western Canada. MJO could favor the Euro in between solution. Champions Classic is in November. This year with have two versions. College basketball, and the three weather models. Check back in two weeks!
  6. nrgjeff
    Sell natural gas! Not investment advice. I'm just tired of the ECWMF weeklies choking. And don't sell natty in the face of this upward momentum. At least not today. However the weeklies might have MJO support. Both the EC and GFS weeklies have the cooler look. Legacy CFS goes warm. Let's see which works out. Check back in two weeks. Please do not share the image outside of our Region.
  7. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Thanks Chuck. I'll take an order of +TNI when the Nina transitions to Nino. And a bunch of Plains severe!
  8. nrgjeff
    Nice pictures @PowellVolz from Monday. Back on Thursday I bet you were watching that cell like a hawk. Don't mess with Mom! I remember a couple times in Kansas calling Mom when a hook was approaching her. Of course she's on it (aware not chasing) but we look out for family.
  9. nrgjeff
    It might have tried, or a bird may have farted. We actually have the instability and juuust enough wind shear. However just enough usually does not sustain anything. Unless it's Midnight with fog of course, haha!
  10. nrgjeff
    They write a 20% of watch issuance. So you're saying there's a chance... My only goal is shelfie. Not much turning with height. However I like any day in Dixie with good visibility!
  11. nrgjeff
    Thank you for the update and foliage forecast. We were going to try to get out this weekend, but the last weekend of October is probably better for us. I figure above 3K ft is good this weekend. Thanks to ample moisture in spring and summer, and finally decent diurnal trends, I'm hoping for a great show in the valleys and even urban areas again like last year. Chatty is definitely after Halloween.
  12. nrgjeff
    Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting. Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.
  13. nrgjeff
    Best deal is -PDO and -AMO. Then instead of a SER with the PDO, the jet stream is pretty much buried all winter across the South. The two multi-decadal indices are about 15 years out of phase with around 30 year phases each. Last time they lined up with mid-60s to early 80s. Did somebody say it used to snow then? About 15 years ago I thought they might line up again as the -PDO took hold. Then it let go (+PDO years) which got some cold in here from 2007-2011. However the +AMO never wants to let go. Right now all I see is warm SSTs across the northern hemisphere except La Nina. Barf!
  14. nrgjeff
    Latest MD mentions possible watch downstream KY/TN. Also notes 850 mb and I not 925 mb will increase in strength toward evening. SPC leaves the door open for either severe or tornado box downstream. Boundary lurks from Dyersburg toward Clarksville. Said west-east boundary should promote more SRH than the junk cold font.
  15. nrgjeff
    Yeah the +PNA is forecast on most models. It's a cold signal here. Source region means it could be normal vs cold; however, that's lovely fall compared to recent wx. While the 500 mb plots look cold, 2m T forecasts are blah. Makes sense with the North much warmer than normal. Often that pattern is cloudy cool here. However northwest flow should mean more sunny mild days and cool nights. Can we have an order or three of that? We need a mix of sunny and cloudy days for fall foliage. Sunny is always more enjoyable. However for photography cloudy has some advantages. Eh forget that more sun always!
  16. nrgjeff
    Agree it'll be tough to get a strong La Nina. Energy content looks very low (strong if Ts upwell efficiently) however it's doubtful. Reason I doubt strong Nina is due to the tendency for convection to poke out of the classic Nina regions to the Dateline. Right there would be a cooler MJO phase. In the mid-long term it disrupts evolution to a strong Nina. So while I favor the weak-mdt La Nina, stormy Mid-South, I'm bearish warm Great Valley. QBO continues to fall, which could help esp Mid-South. We like rate of fall better than bottoming out. Good phase if it can impact things.
  17. nrgjeff
    SPC will probably keep the 5% for West Tenn. Boundary intersection is already set up around Dyersbug, TN. The LLJ will be a bit veered; however, should be just enough SRH right on the boundary with any right mover. Moisture will pool on the boundary. Terrain is great west of town, and OK east for a bit before rolling too much. Jog north into KY would be dreadful terrain. Finally south toward Jackson, TN is doable. Wish I'm there! MD leans severe box, but it might depend on who issues and coordination with WFOs. Also might save it for a small tornado box northeast of there later.
  18. nrgjeff
    Fall Grand Entrance should include cool temps and foliage working down the mountain quite well. I'm guessing still above 3,000 FT though we have not been out yet. Will we have a separate Foliage thread this year? Looking ahead, we may ski right before Christmas. Wed-Fri. Question is Saturday. Christmas is on a Saturday. Would the ski areas be ludicrous crowded (Saturday) or chill (family holiday)? I'm guessing typical Saturday. Can anyone advise? Thank you and happy fall foliage!
  19. nrgjeff
    Oh my look at this! Not a forecast, just banter. Please don't share outside this forum. Snow on Halloween again?
  20. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I'm seeing a mild winter again. Can't sugar coat that La Nina may over-shoot weak category. IOD is also in a crap phase for the Southeast US including the Valley. QBO actually dropping, vs the fake dip, could help. This would be the second time a fake followed by real drop was the cycle, going back a few years for the two cycles. I'm also hearing strato rumblings, but October is too early to use the tool. Mid-autumn warmings are wasted. One would look for action in November. Note I fell way behind the long-range threads and don't expect to catch up. I will join those conversations after checking the last page or two, starting on or after Tuesday. Been out for six weeks with the birth of our second child! Regarding my overall mild feel for winter, maybe spring severe will be interesting.
  21. nrgjeff
    Starting off Fall Break with a bang! Minimal probabilities, but it's better than the summer doldrums. No special plans from Chattanooga. Who wants to take the over/under for Cullman, AL? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0513.html expires 10pm Central October 6, Wednesday.
  22. nrgjeff
    Thank you for posting. That's just awful. TVA employees impacted, but I know it's much worse for many people. Fatalities were shocking not associated with vehicles. That's a tragic and rare flood.
  23. nrgjeff
    Yeah the ECMWF monthlies are about as un-inspiring as it gets for precip. Of course it only takes a couple systems to overcome dismal means. Eh, I can deal with cold and sunny - emphasis on the sunny part. QBO head-faked down the last negative cycle, before finally going negative for real the following year. We'll see if this year is the same for-real following previous year headfake. Rate of change will be important too as discussed previous seasons.
  24. nrgjeff
    At the very least, hang out in the Central / West regional forum. They have some good content when they have weather. Northeast Tenn has gotten hosed as the rest of us got rain. Smoke has arrived in some areas north of I-40. Forecast is for it to sink south with the front. This is a rare case where I'd rather not have the front get here (KCHA) mid-summer, but it will before washing out. Looks hot and smoky up on I-40. Down here our dews are higher, but the sky is still a lovely blue for at least the rest of today. HRRR smokes southern Tennessee on Thursday. Medium Range next week looks like some Southern summer. Little hotter than normal, but we've seen worse. Could go into week 3, but there is some debate in the ensembles. Minority cluster turns milder week 3. Majority is at least seasonably hot though.
  25. nrgjeff
    John is correct in that a second year La Nina - which comes in weak that 2nd year - should be more bullish than a typical La Nina. The only thing for sure is John will have a better winter than me, haha! For new readers, he's not only north of me but at much greater elevation. Yeah Kevin last winter got cold in Feb. That month by itself brought down the average winter temp toward normal. Without February it was mild. West Tennessee actually ended slightly colder than normal. East Tennessee I-75 corridor had a milder than normal winter. Repeat takes us to John's forecast.
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