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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I'm seeing a mild winter again. Can't sugar coat that La Nina may over-shoot weak category. IOD is also in a crap phase for the Southeast US including the Valley. QBO actually dropping, vs the fake dip, could help. This would be the second time a fake followed by real drop was the cycle, going back a few years for the two cycles. I'm also hearing strato rumblings, but October is too early to use the tool. Mid-autumn warmings are wasted. One would look for action in November. Note I fell way behind the long-range threads and don't expect to catch up. I will join those conversations after checking the last page or two, starting on or after Tuesday. Been out for six weeks with the birth of our second child! Regarding my overall mild feel for winter, maybe spring severe will be interesting.
  2. nrgjeff
    Starting off Fall Break with a bang! Minimal probabilities, but it's better than the summer doldrums. No special plans from Chattanooga. Who wants to take the over/under for Cullman, AL? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0513.html expires 10pm Central October 6, Wednesday.
  3. nrgjeff
    Thank you for posting. That's just awful. TVA employees impacted, but I know it's much worse for many people. Fatalities were shocking not associated with vehicles. That's a tragic and rare flood.
  4. nrgjeff
    Yeah the ECMWF monthlies are about as un-inspiring as it gets for precip. Of course it only takes a couple systems to overcome dismal means. Eh, I can deal with cold and sunny - emphasis on the sunny part. QBO head-faked down the last negative cycle, before finally going negative for real the following year. We'll see if this year is the same for-real following previous year headfake. Rate of change will be important too as discussed previous seasons.
  5. nrgjeff
    At the very least, hang out in the Central / West regional forum. They have some good content when they have weather. Northeast Tenn has gotten hosed as the rest of us got rain. Smoke has arrived in some areas north of I-40. Forecast is for it to sink south with the front. This is a rare case where I'd rather not have the front get here (KCHA) mid-summer, but it will before washing out. Looks hot and smoky up on I-40. Down here our dews are higher, but the sky is still a lovely blue for at least the rest of today. HRRR smokes southern Tennessee on Thursday. Medium Range next week looks like some Southern summer. Little hotter than normal, but we've seen worse. Could go into week 3, but there is some debate in the ensembles. Minority cluster turns milder week 3. Majority is at least seasonably hot though.
  6. nrgjeff
    John is correct in that a second year La Nina - which comes in weak that 2nd year - should be more bullish than a typical La Nina. The only thing for sure is John will have a better winter than me, haha! For new readers, he's not only north of me but at much greater elevation. Yeah Kevin last winter got cold in Feb. That month by itself brought down the average winter temp toward normal. Without February it was mild. West Tennessee actually ended slightly colder than normal. East Tennessee I-75 corridor had a milder than normal winter. Repeat takes us to John's forecast.
  7. nrgjeff
    Great news @PowellVolz I'm so glad to learn it's benign and gone! Chattanooga is running a big rainfall surplus again. We had a slow period going into the Fourth of July. Since then it's like Florida around here. If it does not rain every day, it's close. Then some days it rains twice. Does that count as make-up days? A couple of the thunderstorm days included bonuses. Rainbows graced Chattanooga FC matches (pre-game) twice in one week. Another evening or two we had solid lightning shows. Regarding the forum update, I had forgotten. I notice these things for a day or two and then just go with it. I just need to make it darker again.
  8. nrgjeff
    Yea winter may be a lot of +EPO. First I am cautiously optimistic we get a nice fall. Persistence is seasonable to even slightly below normal temps. Humidity is ludicrous right now, but summer actual temps are so far canceled. Heat is parked in the North Central US. A stubborn +ABNA contributes to persistence; however I acknowledge, spring to summer patterns can be meaningless the next fall. Fall foliage: If August continues the mild trend then soil moisture will be at or above normal going into September. Even if the hemispheric pattern shifts in September, foliage should be fine. By mid-Sept. trees start going to sleep before colors change. Only a ridiculously warm October would derail fall foliage. Risk of a warm October is on the table. However there's no reason to forecast much above normal temps at this time. Winter looks ugly for those of us who like snow. Mid South (as noted above and ENSO thread) could snag a couple storms per Nina climo. Rest of the Valley might need a mesoscale miracle. Maybe spring will be good storm chasing.
  9. nrgjeff
    Yes @Carvers Gap that's reasonable analysis. Thought I replied. Either it got lost in the Forum update, or I thought about it and didn't actually post. Euro monthly July 5 update is fairly snooze. January temps chart offers (false) hope, but the precip is Ohio Valley. That ain't good. Prefer Deep South rain to allow cold in here. Not that anything six months out is worth a grain of sand in the desert. CFS does the same thing for February. Wake me up if that translates into severe wx.
  10. nrgjeff
    I think more of the same the next 2-4 weeks. Now we have kind of settled into the summer pattern. AN heights and AN temps favor the North. Pac NW has made headlines. Northeast US quietly stacked up a hotter than normal June too. Down South it's normal heights and normal temps. Rain is hit and miss per the season. TVA had AN rainfall and normal runoff in June. Saturday night local thunderstorm saves my yard. Somehow we blanked with the Thursday night front, haha. Looks like lovely weather the next few days. Everyone have a Happy Fourth of July weekend!
  11. nrgjeff
    Thursday chase partner and I followed the tornado warned supercell in Kansas from inception to line-out. We always had good views of the wall cloud. Forgot what that's like, being away from the Plains for two years. It tried a couple times, but never could drop even a funnel. So @Chinook we gave it the old college (+20 lol) try. Trip was not a total loss. Met up with some WxTwitter chasers whom we'd not met in person until Thursday. I also took a trip down memory lane through the University of Kansas campus and some places in Overland Park / KCMO. Friday was insta-line/blobs but good shelf clouds. Maybe we should have chased Hoosier Alley instead, but now we're back home in Tenn.
  12. nrgjeff
    That must have been scary @PowellVolz I'm sorry you had to go through that. Please let us know when they confirm the tumor was not malignant. Doctors think that's what caused her seizure? Praying for you, your wife and family. Will be thinking of you all and hope she feels better soon.
  13. nrgjeff
    Might go back into another La Nina. That's a rinse repeat signal, per some of Carvers thoughts above. Yes John, Nashville NWS had a study several years ago about 5-year weather patterns. Can't find it now, but it was on their WFO site once upon a time. Southeast Tennessee is easy. Above normal temps. Below normal snow. I'll live vicariously through others on this forum.
  14. nrgjeff
    Wow that's some serious damage in the Chicagoland suburbs. We down here in Chattanooga know the feeling. Midnight Sunday evening. EF-3. Not cool. On the bright side @hlcater that's a very nice chase account on the previous page. I think that's the only pic of the second tornado I've seen. Good stuff!
  15. nrgjeff
    Sunday night I saw lightning and heard thunder locally for the first time since maybe April. Could be March. It was a great night time light show. Storm missed by a couple miles, which actually improved line of sight with the lightning. A week prior we had thunderstorms in Florida, but that's not news in June down there, ha. Night lightning is not a Florida specialty though. Twas so nice to see frequent lightning back home on Sunday.
  16. nrgjeff
    Mississippi has been pummeled two days straight. Some areas have 10+ inches of rainfall and Flash Flood Emergencies posted this morning. I think MEG (Memphis NWS WFO) posted some observed rainfall charts. Meanwhile an MCV is in Alabama this Noon hour Thursday. Mostly cloudy ahead of it should keep things stable. Suppose I agree with SPC. General. Snooze. When's the next hurricane?
  17. nrgjeff
    Long as we can keep the 500 mb ridge parked North, adequate rainfall should continue in our region. However it's sooo humid! I know, it's June in Tennessee. Possibility of a true cool front next week including lower humidity. That'd be an excellent mid-June break.
  18. nrgjeff
    Slight Risk in the Mid South includes 5% tornado. MCV magic season. However I figure any tornadoes would be brief and perhaps low contrast. Leading edge of MCS. Much of the 5% is also in moderate to high flood risk from WPC. Northern part is in just awful terrain where the Tennessee River curves north back into the state, and into tree-filled hills.
  19. nrgjeff
    Classic 2% Plateau things
  20. nrgjeff
    Thank you @Carvers Gap but I have a little help from an energy weather subscription. Focus is temps, but of course I look at precip. And glean info for severe, hehe! Lawn has barely survived my tough love regimen. If rain fails or under achieves today I'll have to water. Looks like more rain later next week, but that'd be too long a wait. Due to a kid recital this week I did not make it to the Plains. I would have busted in Kansas anyway, and been livid about missing the Nebraska tornado fest. So it all worked out. Marginal risk local today. Can we get an Upper Plateau Surprise? What about Sand Mountain, Alabama? Both are very unlikely, but I'm bored and need to talk about something. It'll take an elevated area with a little greater low level wind field. Finally the actual thread topic, Mid Range looks like no early heat waves. ECMWF weeklies are quite mild. American weeklies are hotter. I'd split the middle around normal temps. Long as the ridging stays North, we should get back into a normal rainfall regime.
  21. nrgjeff
    I like western Oklahoma today, except it'll be so crowded! Kansas convection does not seem to want to enter Oklahoma, keeping OK undisturbed. Also some gravity waves are down in Oklahoma, well ahead of the Kansas cold front. Those will likely be a focus for afternoon development. HRRR seems to have that. 12Z NAM/AWR versions had too much northern Oklahoma action early. While I normally don't lean on mid-morning HRRRs they are probably more accurate than the 12Z suite. Reading some cold front pessimism in places (dark corners of the Internet, lol). We are talking gravity waves south of the CF. It's May 27 not May 7. Could work out!
  22. nrgjeff
    Today May 26: Parameter space supports SPC 15% hatched. 50kt at 500 mb and 40kt at 850 mb. Turning nearly 90 degrees. CAPE 3,000-4,000 j/kg. Two boundaries may support cyclical supercells and multiple or long-track tornadoes. WF/OFB lifts north to around I-70. Been a focus of the CAMs for a few runs. Despite slight cluster risk, pattern recognition calls for supercells. Second boundary is the quasi-DL coming into southwest Kansas later. Winds remain backed ahead of it with ample moisture. While 700 mb is warm, the cap should bust via explosive development. I believe both targets are fairly equal. Tomorrow May 27: Depends on overnight MCSs. Boundary should be draped in southern Kansas. While it may behave like a CF early, stalling makes it more OFB. Late May the CF crash risk is low. Terrain is not ideal in northeast Oklahoma; so, one would hope northwest Oklahoma or southeast Kansas. Still just enough cross-boundary upper flow for supercells. PS Friday May 28, boundary still in West Texas.
  23. nrgjeff
    Thursday signal has been on the models since the weekend. SPC is right to highlight it. First of all I believe the NAM is too veered off, too fast, and overall wrong. At 84 hours that's well beyond it's strength. NAM is good to about 36-48 hours. GFS has finally found a consistent groove for Thursday. It's barely got enough shear, both speed and directional. Normally I'm bearish cold fronts. However in late May all boundaries are game on. Enough cross boundary flow is forecast aloft. ECMWF is a bit east and south too. That may pull back with time. Though the Euro is slower / west Wednesday it wants to push faster east Thursday. Doubtful, even with an MCS. Bottom line: Thursday should be a good chase day following the Wednesday fun. Friday is up in the air, but a boundary will remain in late May.
  24. nrgjeff
    I'll tell you what burns me up. SER forming, and no Plains severe. High Plains yes. Traditional central Plains no. Then it goes more Mid South than SER which might as well be death ridge. Bottom line: Unpleasant heat comes in here, but I'm not in the Great Plains chasing. When did central Plains severe get as hard as snow in the South?
  25. nrgjeff
    Every weekly product has been a debacle for about a month now. I would not worry about the upcoming 7-10 days. Huge Mid South Ridge is probably drier than even a SER; however, it looks transient. Return to +GLAAM would punt that ridge as forecast. Might stubbornly linger as SER, but eventually get beat down. If we repeat last year, with highest 500 mb anomalies North summer, the door opens here on the soft underbelly of such a ridge. Fire hose is off, but I think normal rain in June. Perhaps most of summer. Should I water now? Probably. On the other hand May heat is not like July heat. Might let the lawn endure some tough love. Shrubs remain in excellent shape.
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