nrgjeff

Tennessee Football had a nice win over evil Mizzou. Today Tennessee men's basketball hosts Colorado. College basketball begins for real, vs a major. Then Tuesday is the Champions Classic! Life is better than I indicated in the main weather thread, haha.

The rain is needed. For southeast Tennessee the precipitation type question is answered by an old rock ballad. Cold November Rain by G&R. This overcast has me feeling very pessimistic about everything. No snow this winter, haha.

This helps explain the incoming cold pattern. High press eastern Siberia plays nicely with the AK 500 mb ridge forecast on models. Snow cover is also AN (Rutgers map not shown). Note snowcover is worthless without pressure context. Low press / high snow is stormy and mild. High press high snow sets the table for cold if it's delivered. Looking ahead, models don't keep the cold pattern long. However it bears watching. If the cold hangs in longer than a couple weeks, it could be the November preview of winter deal. Of course a quick strong mild recovery may also be a winter preview. We'll know more after the Champions Classic Novie 15th, because college basketball has all the answers, haha!

If the upcoming AK ridge driven cold pattern is brief; then, we can get back to a more La Nina warm pattern. It would tee up chances for late autumn and early winter severe.

Please do not share the first image because it is a subscription. Does it look so familiar around here? Cold is coming, but could be very modulated into the shallow SER. Too early in the season to undercut. My favorite pressure chart is mixed signals; so of course, I'm bearish East Tenn. Maybe the Mid-South? I'm not sure if winter or severe, lol!

UK Met Office just went cooler than normal UK through Jan. However they do not forecast for mainland Europe and certainly not North America. Still, their NAO forecast plays a big role, so... For EU energy security I hope Europe is mild, but we can't control any of that. US is fine either way. Yes I believe SER will be the dominant weather pattern in La Nina. However a colder secondary pattern is likely, maybe stout once or twice, esp Mid South. Nina is variable and the NAO may get negative at times. Check of my favorite 7-day mean surface pressure anomaly echos my mixed sentiment. For the most part cold and stormy is locked up Arctic. No big Arctic highs. However some is spilling into China and North America. Press chart with temperature colors.. Bonus. Australia is colder than normal with that South Pole block from hell.

Yes it's a warm look. Sea level press anomalies 7-day mean. Instead of ridging in Siberia and Canada, low press locks cold North.

Chattanooga cold rain ending before it changes to snow looks legit.

Winter weather at Halloween is becoming a tradition, esp if you count cold rain. However Chatty had flurries one recent Halloween. I prefer severe wx but whatever. Actually if some things come together right early next week, but they won't.

Tennessee Volunteers would beat the KC Chiefs. Sunday pissed me off, but Saturday was so much fun!

Looks like a warm 11-15 day period to close out October. November is very up in the air with competing influences. I'll get serious about a winter outlook in early November.

Looks like we will use up our good winter weather pattern in October. When's the next chance of severe weather? UPDATE: 12Z Tue Euro, I was only joking!

Regarding the PV, Southern Hemisphere, et al. Congrats Mid South! Here in southeast Tennessee I'll enjoy our obligatory SER anyway.

Size of Ian created so much more ACE than Charley. Unfortunately ACE has consequences.

Yeah @Save the itchy algae! it'll be windy through the Mountains this weekend. I think 15-30 mph in the Valley; mostly 15-20 mph with G30 mph. Should (I hope) be too early to screw up mountain leaves. Then one can check rainfall forecasts at WPC or NHC. I hate what's happening in Cuba; Ian acts like no land is there. I'm also quite concerned for Florida.

Yeah it can happen. Was it Opal? Storm in the mid-1990s crapped out on the way in. However they've gone the other way recently. Florida must remain on guard regardless of Category. Big wind field would maintain energy.

Pretty ludicrous tbh. it appears the models missed a little short-wave ridge north of it. Said short-wave ridging did two things. Typhoon turned left with RI. Andrew pulled a stunt like that east of Florida.

Clearwater and St. Pete at least looks in the right side passing, if not worse. @Dbullsfan22 I'm already looking for non-met friends down there; otherwise, the Board normally does not do that type of forecast.

I know seasonal forecasting is precarious.. However I think I declare the Vols are back! In even strangers news, Kansas could get ranked soon.

Still seems on track. Chatty will depend on a lucky track. Agree the Mid-South looks better for snow than the true Tennessee Valley. TRI has that nerve racking taking turns with wind direction between Kingsport and JC. Probably splits a little both ways. Upslope one side. Heartbreak ridge the other. Clint Eastwood movie reference.

Heat next week looks like moderate humidity and low temps in the 60s; so, it won't be horrible. Even if we get well into the 90s it won't feel anything like August. Lower sun angle too. Though computer models have amped up next week the last 36 hours or so, just overnight some dents in the ridge show by Day 10. With zig zag models we are due for a downtrend. Just one more reason it won't be too bad next week. However AN temps will probably be dominant the rest of the month. Enjoy mornings like the last couple when we get them. Eventually fall wx will be consistent, right when football gets back into the heart of conference play.

Yeah I agree with John above. February chart is as classic as it gets! I-40 specials; crap south. Can you hear my dripping cynicism as I type? Chattanooga blanked probably verifies! Now I also agree with Jax that severe could get going again fall and winter. How about January snow Hoosier Alley with tornadoes Dixie Alley? Well probably more likely Nov-Dec and again in Feb. If that happens in January. Oh wait, it did this year! PDO is looking quite bearish Southeast. Mid South and of course I-40 can still get it from cutters. HSV to CHA, I'll see you under the grungy meso this winter!

It's been a minute so I'm catching up. Yes @jaxjagman we had BN fireflies in Chattanooga. I was disappointed because I wanted to show the Baby. Older kid is just like whatever Dad. Can we get the telescope out? So there's hope! How about them Vols!? Road win at Pitt was gutsy. Probably would have won big at home. Kansas also with the road win at West Virginia! Hopefully many of their annoying basketball fans saw that, lol. The other upsets mentioned above @John1122 were good entertainment. Wisconsin might get honorable mention for the choke trophy. Marshall really appreciated the win at ND as they soaked in the moment with graciousness. Cool!

Maybe the Atlantic will give us something to watch. Wall of shear in the Caribbean at the moment. Euro wants to weaken it midweek but the damage may be done. Don't forget to visit the main Tropical Headquarters too. Meanwhile in the Pacific both the US Navy and Japan Met Agency have typhoons going straight west toward China. Forecast ends still at sea. Anyway that could bump up the ABNA which is not a cool weather pattern for North America. No surprise model extended forecasts (1-15 day) warmed up over the weekend. It's not crazy hot, but annoying after hope last week. September is starting to look less cool, but on the optimistic side there's no reason to go blowtorch either.

My memorable trifecta was Gilbert, Hugo and Andrew. Each one was worse than the other for the US. Andrew had that pause with some shear; then it passed, and Andrew turned left with RI because to a short-wave ridge. That little feature was remarkable. As for the proximity to landfall RI, Camille excepted, storms usually can't maintain Cat 5 for more than 12-24 hours. It's probably a mix of issues researched. Perfect conditions are rare. Momentum does not last forever in the Atmo. Energy is used and the sea surface is churned. The big ones still carry their ACE - like Katrina. But we have to watch out for those named above that bombed right before and into landfall. Back to my trifecta. Gilbert was the first one I tracked really seriously. Hugo shocked me into SC. Andrew was (for me) THEE storm of record until Katrina - which shocked me to a new level. Now we get shockers more frequently.