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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    My Kid reports thunder last night. Unfortunately I slept through it. Meanwhile every road in East Brainerd was flooded. Advisory no FF Warning. Two blocks away in Georgia had a Warning. Where was ours? Schools should have delayed 2-hours; but without the warning, decision makers did not act. Total Failure of the Warnings system!
  2. nrgjeff
    And NO FF WARNING! Two blocks away in Georgia was warned. Hamilton Co. only an advisory. @dwagner88 is that right or did I miss the warning? Every way out of East Brainerd to the Interstater was flooded. However Hamilton Co. schools and private schools business as usual. The one morning we needed a 2-hour delay, nothing was done. This after 4-5 false school closures. Is that on the schools? I would say it's on the NWS. Today was a colossal failure of the warnings system. Mike Smith (infamous on Twitter) mode activated. We need an independent review board! I'm trying to figure out a diplomatic way to email NWS from work. I can't find professional wording at this time.
  3. nrgjeff
    I see a couple chances along and north of I-40. Still a few weeks to go up there.
  4. nrgjeff
    Michigan should be disqualified from the Big Dance.
  5. nrgjeff
    If that's a true Gap near Monterey the one would expect convergence downstream for Maryland and Pleasant Hill. White zone on the chart could also benefit from upslope on the Rim. However the convergence lee of the Gap is probably the bigger driver, at least it appears so by scale and the yellow area. Directional convergence just part of it. Bernoulli Effect should accelerate air through the Gap. Air runs into slower moving air lee side, and more convergence is created. All this is hypotheses based on fluid theory. Wind observations could test and confirm. Microclimates always interest me. Good stuff!
  6. nrgjeff
    I'm going to resurrect this thread for heavy rain expected next week. Saves the winter thread for any threats of winter precip. Somewhat stationary front will set up over our Region. Several impulses will come out early to midweek. Mostly above freezing, we can focus on flooding threats. Then the main energy brings what could be more severe weather late week. QPF moves with the tracks of the waves. Totals should be robust. Pattern makes it hard to dodge the heavy rain, unless the frontal position shifts markedly.
  7. nrgjeff
    Thursday kind of surprised in Alabama. I figured the CAPE was more robust in Mississippi; however, the line was also forced. Same east-west boundary sat in Alabama, awaiting the pre-frontal trough. Sure enough the boundary intersection was the epicenter. Notably the FV3 got the scenario day ahead. NAM caught on later.
  8. nrgjeff
    I forgot to comment on the big Tennessee win! Vols avenged the Rupp ruckus. When Tennessee plays with energy the defense creates offense. We'll see how things go into March. As of Arks, yeah the extended range looks wet. Most of it is above freezing in contrast to the ice crap progged a couple days ago. Oh the Knoxville article. Regardless of which side one is on the climate debate (another Forum section) a warmer climate with longer growing season is considered beneficial to humanity thanks to food production. Nets drought impacts with longer growing season where moisture is adequate.
  9. nrgjeff
    Cold starting late next week into the 26th weekend has support from the Yukon block @Carvers Gap that's a good description. However I'm not sure how long it'll last. It's been cold-ish for six weeks now.
  10. nrgjeff
    Mississippi I have more confidence in on Thursday. Surface temps should hit 70 degrees with 65 dews. Prefrontal trough will slam into that environment. Alabama will depend on how the warm front behaves. Midday rain would keep it stable. Morning rain lifting into Tennessee would open Alabama to outflow. Little if any rain would leave the warm front, but still surface heating questions. No rain would leave a stratus deck in tact. Stratus is pattern recognition early season warm 850 Ts. Bottom Line: Alabama has two paths to keeping stable and only one path to severe. Mississippi is probably reverse, a 2/3 chance of severe.
  11. nrgjeff
    If it can happen in the Plains in early March, Hesston KS Mar. 13, 1990 it certainly happens in the South. That day in March 2012 was prolific on a national scale. This (Saturday) morning SPC expanded the Thursday 15% east to the Alabama Georgia line. Gets into the Lower Plateau as well. As for the MJO, we got a buffet line of convection going into the Maritime Continent. -PNA is indeed activated.
  12. nrgjeff
    Perhaps we can test the TIMS enhanced version. Tornado watches bring even more snow the next system. For those who get anxious about severe wx I'm just jawboning. Day 7 might as well be day 124.
  13. nrgjeff
    Saturday snow is canceled for southeast Tenn. I'm now much more interested in Thursday severe Mid South. Maybe it'll TIMS after that, haha!
  14. nrgjeff
    Vols got a nice road win! Do we have a snow index for that? Also we need a rave glowsticks reaction. Really good news such as.. Garden thread going means spring is coming!
  15. nrgjeff
    Yeah they might want to ask Memphis truck drivers about that, lol! Models could have been better overnight. Southeast Tenn gonna need more @John1122 Feb 2014 vibes. That one got us.
  16. nrgjeff
    Oh my the 18Z NAM has the correct WAA look 700/850 mb. 500 mb vort max digs better. Going to issue a Snow Lovers Heart Ripped Out by NAM watch.
  17. nrgjeff
    This is a big test for the EC. As @Vol4Life points out the Euro is having an off season. Still I'd like to see even a little tiny hint of WAA at 700/850 mb but the EC upper trough interaction remains a no-go. My personal conceptual model remains Upper Plateau to Mountains and a decent chance MRX to TRI. Lazy general pattern recognition is right 90% of the time. Those are the regions that can squeeze from the northern stream if the southern craps out. Hedge your bets!
  18. nrgjeff
    Weekly products all support severe weather on or after President's Day. AN temps with AN precip Mid South or Deep South. Hints of a passing wave that week before a more robust SER. Then start Hoosier Alley season! Other evidence is a severe favorable MJO impulse. Also the Polar Vortex is locked up so no SSW to spoil early chase season.
  19. nrgjeff
    Yeah look for WAA at 700 mb and 850 mb. GFS and Canadian have it. Ukie too. NAM does not at 00Z Sunday and neither did the Euro. We eagerly await the 12Z Euro! Getting to root causes of forecast differences is indeed the OV PVA. We need Southern to dominate. Carvers explains very well the pitfalls. Event has a high ceiling AND high bust potential, more than usual even here. Maybe if I jawbone in the severe thread it'll help, haha!
  20. nrgjeff
    Some snow north of I-40 mainly east of Nashville would not surprise me this weekend. Above progged moisture for TRI would get the job done. Upper Plateau has a good chance of sticking snow IMHO. Mountains will see some good accumulation at higher elevations.
  21. nrgjeff
    For all you who think SEC refs are biased, Big 12 gave a clinic on poor officiating last night. Kansas was gang raped at the post and hardly any of it was called. Could have scored 4-6 extra points off free-throws. Texas got plenty of ticky tacky calls against KU. Normally officiating isn't an excuse, but this game was scripted to keep the Big 12 close for TV revenue.
  22. nrgjeff
    Threading the needle is the only hope for Southeast Tenn. Otherwise Carvers is right it's mostly strike-outs for the rest of the Region. What am I doing in this thread? Upper Plateau and Mountains could cash in if we can get a buffet line of clippers going. Last time I personally got snow from a clipper was probably KC circa 1990, lol! Does not count NC WV ski trips.
  23. nrgjeff
    Perhaps the thunder followed by snow can verify in the mountains. Just saw another Southeast Tennessee system turn offshore snoozer. I've closed the books on winter Southeast Tenn. GFS picks up on the severe system Day 10 but there are typical questions 10 days out. Watch it slide south and snow on Chatty just to make me eat my words, haha!
  24. nrgjeff
    Both! What else would one expect in the South? LOL Dear ECMWF tee up some North Alabama Day 10.5
  25. nrgjeff
    I feel like this thread is missing posts. At any rate it's always a good time to jawbone severe weather early and often.
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