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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Re Shawn's post. These mountains are interesting every time. We really didn't have the mountain wave set-up, no inversion. Perhaps that means the mountains blocked like a good offensive line until the wind shifted. I had some 30 mph gusts of wind with the 8:30 Eastern band that went through Chatty; trees blew, carwash on the windows. Only lasted a few minutes - regrettable since I was busy. Wind has returned now but no rain, just mostly cloudy. We get that all the time in winter. Still the novelty of Helene being a TS in Tennessee is something else. It happens but it's rare. All that said our thoughts are with people facing much worse situations from the Mountains to the Coast, wind to flooding. I figure the Helene name will be retired.
  2. nrgjeff
    From Nashville: Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows the center of Helene is north of Knoxville, with very low pressure readings across Middle Tennessee including 989mb at Nashville and 987.8mb at Livingston. Although not records and just outside the top 10, these are still unusually low pressure readings for our area. Here's a list of the Top 10 lowest pressure readings at Nashville: https://www.weather.gov/ohx/pressure_BNA Top 10 Lowest & Highest Pressure Readings at Nashville (weather.gov)
  3. nrgjeff
    The link does not work. Here is copy and paste. TS hasn't been that close to me in several years. I also added a capture from SPC surface analysis.
  4. nrgjeff
    I think we had 20-25 mph about 30 minutes ago with a heavier cell. It has moved on and the wind died down in Chatty. Kind of hoping the wind picks up again, but that might have been it. I was busy and didn't record anything. While 25 mph is meh, I would like to document TS Helene. Rare to get anything greater than a TD in Tenn. We'll see maybe background wind midday.
  5. nrgjeff
    Yes one reason they can even do hurricane recon is that the majority of the kinetic energy is horizontal. Yeah 140 mph in this case! Of course they get both vertical and horizontal turbulence. Usually even the eye wall does not have the vertical velocity of say a raging Plains supercell. Hot towers do though. And they are going to get roughed up by horizonal wind anyway. Add the vertical bumps and it's too much even for those hunters. Getting brief wind gusts to 25 mph at my house. Mostly just vertical moderate rain. Ben raining all night. Back to something @Carvers Gap wrote about the wind above the trees, I fully expected that last night but not much in Chatty. Usually at night for me, but yeah it's a thing with fall and winter systems, and then the LLJ spring systems.
  6. nrgjeff
    Well now my friends, this is very unusual. Mr. Teasdale from the original Red Dawn. High wind warning in Vols orange. TS warning in Alabama more than Georgia color. Does that mean anything for Saturday? Then there are models with a narrow swath of 50-60 mph winds between Chatty and Knox. Is that the PNG above that does not open? I'll believe it when I see it.. But for work, I have adjusted the Def Con accordingly. Good night to read A Wrinkle in Time. On a dark and stormy night.. Book specifically says it's a tropical system. It's ON!!
  7. nrgjeff
    I figure the rainy falls were amplified and unsettled patterns, vs dry northwest flow or ridge. Helene is just one event and from the tropics. I'd kind of like to see mid-latitude drivers. For now I have warm La Nina. Secondary cold push pattern might benefit the Mid South more than the Eastern Valley. I'm mentally prepared to get blanked again. I mean Heather last year, six inches in Soddy Daisy and nada East Brainerd. My level of jaded remains off the charts!
  8. nrgjeff
    Nice @Holston_River_Rambler looks like an impressive trip! Bonus Aurora in the Southwest, ha. Lots of stars at night. You drove the Million Dollar Highway? No guard rails it's white knuckles.
  9. nrgjeff
    Reasons why I have not been on much recently.. They got the hole over East Brainerd, east of downtown Chattanooga. The totally whacked thing is that it's probably right!
  10. nrgjeff
    After reasonable dewpoints, Debby finally dragged in the soup for Chattanooga today. Hopefully the last of the truly nutty dews. Temps and humidity will ebb and flow, more to the hot side than hot through August. I just see a hint of the light at the end of the tunnel. Next week will depend on where that boundary and scattered t-storms develop. Then the central US ridge gets more nibbles on both edges, which would help us esp. East Valley. Mid-South may still be closer to mid summer for a couple weeks. I have been out for a while. No trouble just lots at work and a last family trip end of summer break. Back to it now. Hope all are doing well here!
  11. nrgjeff
    Omaha was hawt Monday night! Of course Tennessee won in the Vols way. Let them almost come back and give fans heart failure. Likely watered my lawn for the last time of the season too. We have a chance of rain on Wednesday. Then per usual tough love intensifies into July. Might water it one more time, but frequency drops from every other night to every 3-4 nights (longer though). If this crap continues after July 4 it's a lost cause. Declare independence from watering. It'll come back in Sept. Some of the long-range models and weeklies have temps closer to normal the 3rd week of July. Oh great, when it's hot anyway.
  12. nrgjeff
    Yes so far temps are under achieving the hype. Core ridge is north, so I guess it's their problem. Lack of rain is verifying though. I have a feeling Sunday front attempt will be dry; first attempt often is dry. Then by midweek maybe the second try. Looks like front vs soft underbelly. Probably same result this time of year, more humid. Front would have pooling moisture. Yard could use the drink though. By next week yards will be very thirsty. Then we have hints at a hot 4th of July week. Weeklies are a little more reliable week 3 in mid-summer vs spring and fall. Guess from there we grind it out until football starts.
  13. nrgjeff
    Sunday we specialized in orphaned anvils around here. Finally got a shower Sunday evening. Coming on midweek we just have too much ridge in the Valley. Farther west the Mid-South has a little moisture fetch coming around the west side of the ridge. Might take until the middle of next week to break the ridge. Looks like it'll come from the soft underbelly. Front, what's that?
  14. nrgjeff
    Rocky Mountain and Northern High Plains things. I'll confess I'm jealous. Feel free to react
  15. nrgjeff
    Been a nice early June. Dewpoints are quite lovely today. Feels very comfortable outside. Unfortunately the gig is up starting about this weekend. Temps will bounce Thursday and Friday, but the humididy might lag a day. This weekend one needs to be near water. By late June looks like a true heat ridge will be sloshing around the US. Oh goodie!
  16. nrgjeff
    Tis the season for high-resolution models to be clueless. Today the rain was supposed to be MS/AL. It's Tenn. Love it!
  17. nrgjeff
    Wake me up when September comes.. Green Day is timeless. This thread should probably be pinned. Drop the pin on the Spring thread and put it out of its misery, ha. Still looks like we can avoid major heat for a good chunk of June. The more weeks we chop off the less miserable summer overall.
  18. nrgjeff
    Apparently West Tennessee had some landspouts over the weekend. I have seen few if any pictures on social media, but MEG did address questions.
  19. nrgjeff
    Looks more and more like we'll escape major heat for a good chunk of June. We're all mentally prepared for a hot July and August each year; so, I'm not too concerned about those months. Yeah September nights get cooler. The lower sun angle also takes off the edge even during the day.
  20. nrgjeff
    Any delay of the inevitable SER is welcome. Next week looks slightly warmer than normal, but the split flow variety so nothing too brutal. Also more precip. About a third of the way into June, a big ol' bowling ball of an upper low is progged over the Great Lakes with BN heights into the Valley. We've seen that before in June. AI versions of the ensembles concur so that's good. Eventually the Nina influence will rear its ugly head. I'm afraid a back-loaded summer would drag deep into fall. Closing on a positive, the weekly products are not in a rush to set up the SER.
  21. nrgjeff
    Weather went about as I expected for three Marginal risk days. We had thunderstorms. Not many were severe. Some were strong. Chattanooga got a good light show or two also. Sunday is a true Slight Risk with Enhanced north. Most of us will probably see morning and then overnight storms and straight wind. Enhanced area might be more interesting Sunday afternoon but rotation is conditional on how the outflow behaves. It's a good Enhanced for wind in my opinion. Monday things depart. How about a mid-Atlantic Slight? Watch the best storm of the week be east of the Appalachians, lol!
  22. nrgjeff
    Today Northern Illinois into Chicagoland Atmo might be too overturned from the midday MCS. Models that have a robust round 2 later handle the morning MCS poorly, and one simply didn't even initialize it. Back along the Mississippi River could be a different story. As for Chicago, I'm looking forward to midday shelfies with the skyline. Sunday is my main interest. Could start out with a raging MCS too. Difference is that Sunday is a stronger system. After the MCS a second short-wave is progged by most models coming in toward 00Z. Early MCS should leave outflow boundaries. Some will drift south of the synoptic WF and such OFBs would be my main interest to a point. South of I-64 will get away from the best upper support and into questionable terrain. SPC also favors such outflow boundaries for their Sunday Enhanced risk corridor, which I interpret from the WF down to the OFBs. Could also be the most wind reports later. Lincoln, IL mentions the outflow boundaries kind of in passing before getting to the red meat part of the forecast discussion for Sunday. Lincoln, IL discussion looks good for Sunday. ..Forecast soundings (NAM/SREF) Sunday show long, cyclonically curved hodographs along with very steep (>8.5-9.0 C/km) mid level lapse rates supportive of supercells and large hail. 0-1 km bulk shear of 15-25 kt and high SRH (>200 m2/s2) are supportive of supercell tornadoes. Storms should become linear with time with wind then becoming the primary hazard.
  23. nrgjeff
    Oh yeah the Wednesday evening storms looked nasty up that way. Thursday not as bad? Same boundary is hanging around Friday but lacks robust upper-level support East Tenn. I think West Tenn atmo is too overturned but there's modest upper flow that way. Attention shifts to Sunday. Outflow could get all the way into our region, though SPC has lifted that north with the models. I figure the tornado risk is north of the Ohio River on the warm front Sunday. I'll visit the Oho Valley region to discuss Sunday in more detail. Sunday night the cold front should provide a chance of linear storms here in the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley.
  24. nrgjeff
    Subvorticy party. That's the most classic example I've seen on video. Looks straight out of the Dr. Fujita textbook. He'd be smiling down if ppl did not succumb to their injuries. We'll just go with, he's vindicated once again.
  25. nrgjeff
    for Sunday: Although the 30% is Mid-South, the surface low and associated boundaries could very well be Illinois to Indiana. I'd love the WF to be north of I-70. At least I-64. Outflow will likely be in the Mid-South but that's hideous chase terrain. If the atmosphere can recover from morning rain and storms, instability should get north into IL/IN which is already 15%. SPC could be waiting for confidence on Atmo recovery and then destabilization farther north. Their 'concerning pattern' language is notable.
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