nrgjeff

Wednesday through Friday we have that meandering boundary across our region with modest flow aloft. Mid-South to West Tenn have Slight risks Wed/Thu. Marginal covers much of our region. Timing short-waves and some low-level winds will determine whether storms are garden variety or something more. Then on Saturday a new system develops in the Plains and ejects east for Sunday funday. Mid-South is the focus with some through much of our region. SPC looks at concentration. Low pressure may be up in IL/IN along with the warm front and triple point. Depends on previous days precip. We'll see.

They are trying. AI versions and weekly products concur. We'll take it! The progression is logical after the series of Plains and Midwest troughs perhaps sets up a little Great Lakes trough. If we're lucky the trough axis would include the Tennessee Valley. Unfortunately it won't last long. I'll enjoy any mild weather we can get, because I'm concerned it'll be a true Southern summer.

I prefer the discrete cells shown by the RRFS and FV3. HRRR and ARW have red bows. Edit: no reason to quote for continuity. Posts are only minutes apart. Looks like the Derecho checklist won't be met. We will have the west-east boundary and moderate theta-E. However the height falls are not met. Also 700 mb is more classic CAA than the WAA associated with derechos. 850 mb is neutral-ish and probably why CAMs can't make up their mind bow or sups. Why am I hoping for sups? I'm like the only storm chaser not in the Midwest or Plains this week, haha!

Southern Iowa convection appears to have spit out a differential heating boundary into northern Missouri. 10:30 am Central visible showed it through Kansas City, but the target will be farther northeast. 10:15 surface chart shows differential heating around I-70 in Missouri. Hard as it is for this Jayhawk to say, Missouri has some things going for it. The mid-level and upper-level flow crosses the surface front and pre-frontal trough better than farther north. Yes a subtle wind shift is forecast in Missouri ahead of the main front. Next storm motion will be slower in Missouri. CAMs keep some cells discrete in Mizzou likely related to the cross boundary flow aloft. Key is for the little outflow along I-70 to stay intact as it lifts north. It will lift north in this strong synoptic pattern and no rain in northern Missouri. I would chase the intersection of the lifting boundary and any pre-frontal trough. While it's a mess south of I-70, Missouri terrain is chasable north of I-70.

I think we need dates on this thread do differentiate it from the general severe wx topic. @jaxjagman will it still let you edit? Wednesday we have that boundary likely settling over the Mid-South. Upper flow is modest at best, but sometimes that's all it takes in late May. Thursday needs that 15% into West Tenn. Probably depends too much on Wednesday. However what I see is a residual outflow under decent upper-level flow. Friday could be farther north; or, the boundary gets stuck in the Mid-South again. Moderate flow (more than Wed/Thu) ejects from the southern Plains. Saturday and Sunday switch back to synoptic pattern recognition. Saturday has the next Plains wave. By Sunday it's forecast over our direction. Yet another Monday is possible. All of this feels too late in the season, but a check back at the records indicates it's not. Guess that's one reason I'm not in the Plains this week.

Tue. May 14 That's a boundary intersection with modest flow aloft. 15% for wind and hail. 2% Tornado into Middle and East Tenn.

Lets see your Friday night lights! I told family to expect a little DSLR fun on the horizon. Manage expectations. Wife and kid are getting into photography. Comet Neowise planted the seed. We didn't attempt technical Photography for the Eclipse. Oh but an Aurora in the South is exactly the time to use a camera! We headed out to a rural area because I had no idea it'd be visible in town. Or you know, in Florida! I was thinking 40 deg. N best case and we ain't there. Well, geomagnetic latitude we are, but whatever. I was not expecting what happened. Got to get gas and I could see green northeast from the bright gas station canopy! We found a suitable semi-dark spot. No time to find perfect in a small town I don't know. Williamsburg, KY very friendly but not dark, ha. We settled for a building with no lights in its parking lot. Some of these pics are from there. Then the neighbor took one of it hitting our house, lol! Highlights are starbursts and the like Overhead! Aurora all-quads also has a nice ring to it! It was absolutely in the southern sky too. We had much better naked eye traveling than staying in town. Sharing with family was meaningful vs my usual chase partner (sorry dude). What a blessing!

My eclipse and aurora season is going much better than my storm chasing. Aurora pix pending transfer from DSLR. For now, this lovely stat.

Something new to be hopeful for. Sky conditions will be excellent. Whether anything shows up this far south is a different matter.

The light show was next level all night in Chattanooga. @*Flash* very nice job with that chase in dreadful terrain. Post is previous page.

This is old but still relevant. About that time the finally went 15% tornado probs. Southeast Tenn. Goodie at night! Then at 10:12 pm Eastern Time. Everything is kidney bean or hook. Just wow!

The South is so much fun after dark, but not the weather. Seems like it's escalating juuust a bit.

String of pearls shows little sign of congealing into a line. Oh yeah, we're in the South. We do our tornadoes at night! Normally that doesn't make it over the Plateau. Tonight unfortunately we have Great Plains parameters in place, so.. Remember southeast Tennessee tornado watch until Midnight Eastern. The cell just south of Murfreesboro caused the damaging tornado earlier. From just issued Mesoscale Discussion #716. Parameters are for the vicinity of the line of pearls. New watch will be Western and Middle Tenn. The airmass across this region remains very unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This should be more than sufficient to sustain vigorous updrafts, support CAM runs which increase convective coverage over the next several hours. Strong deep-layer winds will support organized convection, with an all-hazards severe risk likely to continue through the evening and into the overnight hours -- warranting new tornado watch issuance across this region.

Still no squall line. Just a string of pearls as the LLJ cranks up at dark. Oh yeah, we're in the South! Goodness I almost forgot. Those usually won't make it across the Plateau into Chatty. But we usually don't have Great Plains parameters in place. Oh goodie!

WBIR viewer Rutledge, Tenn. I believe this morning. While it has a scuddy look, I lean TOR. It's all by itself. I infer inflow from our right. It's in the correct part of the storm base. Quick note about Southern Tenn. Outflow has clearly detached from the warm front. RRFS picks up on southern Tennessee storms later.

Before 11am @John1122 verifies. Photo Greg Williams a HAM / spotter in Crosville. May 8 Anywhere else I'd question it. On the Plateau, that's probably what it looks like.

Warm front is going to light up, and perhaps with supercells. It will start the day draped straight across Tennessee. You want daytime in the east? ECMWF and a couple high-res hang it up in Tennessee, which would be bad news. Most everything else lifts it into Kentucky before it goes berserk. Then of course overnight Wednesday night a huge red bow squall line is forecast to rake the state. Two rounds. We wouldn't do it any differently in the South!

Yeah I agree with Andy on Indiana above. Illinois boundary right now enjoys more instability. However Indiana convergence zone will have a ton of SRH. Plus it'll destabilize too. I have always preferred the eastern of two surface troughs when chasing east of the Mississippi River. Midwest, Mid-South, Deep South. Then more upper level support is over Indiana. Need to catch the right entrance/rear of the upper jet, which is somewhat departing Illinois. Now there's a Plains short-wave coming out, but that is the overnight stuff. Daytime I think Indiana. LLJ also hangs in better Indiana vs Illinois.

The 2% on Monday verified in Tennessee, but most of the tweets are scrubbed. Also possible she blocked me for political reasons. Layperson not media. Today we have 0% strong in North Bama. Very subtle boundary is trying to lift north. Outflow from Mid-South is oriented NE to SW; and, they may intersect later. However the LLJ is modest to meager. CAMs fire it, but it could just be blobs. SPC coveres farther north. Wednesday is the classic outflow boundary day. Models verbatim have it lifting into Kentucky, which looks reasonable with strong enough WAA. If greater precip coverage in the morning, the boundary could get stuck in Tenn. Right now only the Euro has that.

Yes I agree with Tuesday 10% centered around Dayton, straddles IN/OH border. From what I recall driving to Detroit, that's quite chasable territory. LLJ is forecast to be roaring into the vicinity. Right Rear/Entrance of jet streak should promote lift. The morning stuff is going to be on the Left Front/Exit. Right entrance is sometimes fickle, but an excellent boundary will sit underneath it. Tuesday looks like a classic outflow re-generation day. Then on Wednesday it could be anywhere with the rain enhanced boundary sinking south. Unfortunately, it looks like it could be Kentucky which isn't great chase terrain. Though some open ag spots are available. Wednesday could also go berserk the northern half of the Mid-South MO/IL, but that's touch and go terrain. I'm not sure how one would position after Tuesday. Probably depends on how Tuesday goes, to position for Wednesday.

I'm gonna need that crap to stay north of the Ohio River. Mid-South will probably invade Tennessee Wednesday evening with straight line winds though. So long as the WF or rain enhanced outflow boundary does not get into Tennessee - stays Ohio River Valley - (most of) the tornadoes should stay up there too. No reason to hype the Tennessee Valley. It's actually still peak season, early May is just more late April; however, the synoptics situation favors the Ohio River Valley. Mid-South is kind of on the borderline. Again augmented boundaries could still play a role, but the synoptic situation overall is north.

Tuesday looks like the convectively enhanced outflow boundary gets down toward southern Illinois. It could stay farther north in Indiana or lift north there with greater LLJ help. At any rate 500 mb flow will be robust and with a shortwave coming around 00Z after the morning one departs. It'll probably convect late afternoon. Boundary intersection between lifting outflow and synoptic front or pre-frontal trough will be the area of interest. CAPE lurks ready to recover north with the said boundary intersection. Wednesday now looks like it may have the greater kinematics. Still robust 500 mph flow, with greater LLJ. The more true short-wave at 500 mb should promote a surface low response. Key is for the strength of the system to keep boundaries north of the Ohio River. North of I-64 would be preferred. Wednesday severe wx could stretch all the way from Texas to Ohio. I feel like we were just talking about this. Oh yeah the eclipse! Anyway Wednesday will probably be most interesting just east of the surface low. Placement is TBD after prior convection.

I think Tuesday could be a classic Illinois Indiana day. Impressive jet stream punches in aloft. LLJ goes Plains nuts over in the Midwest. And that warm sector CAPE! Wednesday looks pretty good too. Maybe the SPC thinks boundaries are going to push the warm sector back into the Mid South. I'd much prefer things stay up in IL/IN/OH and they may if a major MCC doesn't wash out everything Tuesday night. Thursday could actually end up in the Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley, neither of which is acceptable chase territory, though the latter is close to home. If Tue/Wed satisfy, I won't care about Thursday terrain. Oh yeah I can't make it to the Plains for Monday, so figure I'll post here in Lakes Ohio Valley.

I expect parts of the Mid-South and Midwest to join the SPC Day 4-8 day outlook in the next day or two; so, look Friday or Saturday. It's wild how the Great Plains could get whacked Monday, then get quiet. Then the trough slows down to gradually work through the Mid-South and Midwest (IL/IN/OH). Each day a wave slides around the base and ejects out. LLJ responds. Kentucky could get clipped next week. Feels late in the season but it's not. Early May is still the heart of the season. Most of those states peak in May too.

It's El Nino with La Nina characteristics. Great Plains too.