Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Seems like its northward movement has a lot of momentum behind it - Especially with those thunderstorms driving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What's going on in VA isn't really relevant to you guys. That's all 700mb forcing stuff, falling at night. It doesn't hold up by the time it gets to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 In the AM we should have a better idea of where its headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The usually progressive UKMET is wetter than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SPC WRF is in, looks more NAM like and almost RGEM like...it does some weird stuff tomorrow night from 04-07Z almost backing a CCB like freature west out of LI into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol it's like it carves out NNJ and NYC with no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol it's like it carves out NNJ and NYC with no snow I see it differently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This don't look that hot to me has .25-50 for North Jersey and 2.0 for South Jersey unless their is more to come ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'd never thought I'd see the day where the KOKX NWSFO snowfall map looked liked it did with nary a watch/advisory for the warning area save SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 With regard to those extreme QPF cutoffs, yes they do occur, but rarely to the extent the models usually have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'd never thought I'd see the day where the KOKX NWSFO snowfall map looked liked it did with nary a watch/advisory for the warning area save SE CT. It is strange, advisory met by their own map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This don't look that hot to me has .25-50 for North Jersey and 2.0 for South Jersey unless their is more to come ? .5-.75 (closer to .75 actually) straddles the Hudson river and actually gets to my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 WRF-NMM Not done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 WRF-NMM Not done yet hrw-nmm_eus_042_precip_p36.gif NICE! 1-1.25. Sliver of 1.25 in my general vicinity actually. WRF ARW at 42? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah. But if you do it through hour 48, it's not too different then the gfs. The difference comes after hour 48. Ukmet to hour 48: Ukmet total precip through hour 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 45 ARW NMM (Impressive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 45 ARW NMM (Impressive) How's the thermals? Some of it will either be non-accumulating snow or something other than snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 News 12 NJ is leaning towards the NAM. Calling for a pro-longed snow event with major beach erosion. Also hearing that they have issued some voluntary evacuations for some of the NJ barrier islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah. But if you do it through hour 48, it's not too different then the gfs. The difference comes after hour 48. Ukmet to hour 48: Ukmet total precip through hour 72: UK is almost always south and east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah. But if you do it through hour 48, it's not too different then the gfs. The difference comes after hour 48. Ukmet to hour 48: Ukmet total precip through hour 72: That isn't bad, and that's from the progressive model. GFS looking increasingly like it's out to lunch. Looking forward to the Euro to hopefully make a north bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hi-Res NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hi-Res NMM How much of that is snow for Nassau Suffolk border on LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 mount holly as of 917 pm NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...HOPING A RESEARCH PROJECT COMES OF THIS EVENT AS THERE ARE SOMANY CONFLICTING SIGNALS STILL IN OUR CWA WE DONT KNOW WHERE TOSTART. CAN UNDERSTAND WHY SPRING EQUATIONS ARE CAUSING PROBLEMSWITH MOS GUIDANCE, BUT THE MODELS KEEPING SFC TEMPS WELL ABOVEFREEZING INTO EARLY WED EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE WRF-NMMB WHICHDYNAMIC COOLS TO NEAR FREEZING.WELL AS FOR PCPN VERIFICATION THROUGH 00Z. ALL OF THE MODELS HAD AGOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA PF EXCELLENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCEEMANATING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO IL. SINCE MOST OF THIS FELL ASSNOW HARD TO SAY IF THEY WERE WET OR DRY, BUT THE PLACEMENT WASGOOD. WHERE IT WAS RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE CAN GGEM SEEMEDTO VERIFY THE BEST. A BUNCH OF MODELS WERE TOO WET IN SC AND GA,DON`T KNOW IF THIS WAS JUST BEING TOO FAST WITH DEVELOPINGCONVECTION AS THE FRONT IS NOT SLOW AND THERE IS CONVECTION NOW.THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO SLOW WITH THE BACK EDGE, WRF-NMMB MOSTGUILTY PARTY. AS FOR THE SFC LOW ITSELF, THE 18Z WRF-NMMB VERIFIEDTHE BEST. ALSO GOOD WITH BAGGINESS OVER WRN NC. ECMWF 2ND BEST,CORRECT LATITUDE, JUST SLIGHTLY SLOW, NOTHING NEW THERE. 00Z RUCNOT GOOD, SFC LOW IS NOT IN OH YET AS 01Z. CAN SEE A CIRCULATIONFORMING AROUND CLT AT 02Z. RAIN/SNOW LINE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINSWAS AROUND 1295M 1000-850MB NAM THICKNESS.AT 925MB IN THE LOCAL AREA ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD, THEWRF-NMMB 6HR FCST AMONG THE COLDEST SOMETIMES BY 2 OR 3C. GFS BESTOVERALL. BOTH BWI AND PHL ACAR FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY 2500FEET. THIS MAY ALL BE A MOOT POINT AS THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIRBETWEEN 925MB AND SFC ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. IF ANYTHING, THEMODELS TOO MOIST TOO FAST AT IAD LOOK GOOD AT WAL. AT 850MBCONVERSELY THE MODELS ARE TOO WARM BY AROUND A DEGREE OR SO, THEECMWF OVERALL THE BEST. AT 500MB THERE IS MORE RIDGING OVER THECAROLINAS AND THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE DIGGING MORE. THE BNAHEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE LAGGING BEHIND.THE LATEST SREF EMPHASIZING TWO AREAS AS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY(WARNING CRITERIA) SNOW. ONE WHERE CURRENT WARNING IS IN EFFECT,THE SECOND MAX MAY BE IN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH. SREF QPF ISAPPROXIMATELY 50 TO 75 PCT OF OPERATIONAL 18Z WRF-NMMB.WOULD THINK THE 500MB FCST SHORTFALLS WOULD RESULT IN A SHARPERTURN WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN. AS FOR CHANGES WITH THIS SHORT TERM,BASED ON THE PREV RUC AND HRRR, WE ADDED SOME MORE SNOW TO OUREASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT. THE TOP DOWN PROCEDURE WE DID WITH THEPREVIOUS UPDATE WAS ALL RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A SHOT OF SNOW FOR MAYBEAN HOUR OR SO WHEN INTENSITY INCREASES LATER. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TOTEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. ITS COLDER TOWARD THECOAST CURRENTLY THAN INLAND. WOULD THINK ONCE THE WINDS START ANDCLOUDS ARRIVE, THEY WILL BUMP UP. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 A guy on the Rutgers Football board where I'm very active posted a priceless pic of 9 TV screen shots, showing the huge variability in snowfall predictions. Here's a link - hope it works. https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc1/883410_10152672876245122_35586494_o.jpg In addition, here's a link to the thread, if you want to see what a bunch of sports fans think (a few of us who post there, post here, and link to here, so they're fascinated with "winter weather weenies") and I'm also reproducing my last post there, in case anyone cares to see what I say on that board: here, I'm just another interested observer with some occasional insights given my advanced degrees in chem eng'g, which shares a lot of fundamental science with meteorology, while there, I'm one of the more knowledgable folks with regard to meteorology, so I often post on what I think will happen (based on what I learn here, at the NWS and from a few other select pros I follow closely - and I always cite sources, as I don't make forecasts, per se), as it affects RU football weather and major weather events, since people are interested. Hope you find it interesting. "Craig Allen called this one of the toughest forecasts he's ever seen and DT, earlier today, essentially hung his head in shame for busting so badly, especially on the low tracking much further to the north than he forecast - based on the Euro, which for the past few days has been well south of the rest of the models, but is almost certainly going to be wrong, now. But at least I give him credit for admitting it and doing a really informative mea culpa. Links to both, below. Usually I try to do an in depth post on what I think is going to happen, based on my analysis of what the NWS and some of the best pros are saying, combined with some local knowledge, but I'm simply stumped on this one. I was half joking last night when I said you can't really say we might get 2-14", but that's where we are essentially 18 hours before the fun starts, which is almost unprecedented. The only bankable thing is the the high winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding and the fact that we'll have moderate to heavy precip. But what type and where (and when, with what looks to be a 2-part storm on Weds into Thursday and then Thurs into Friday, especially for NYC metro on eastward) and how much snow might accumulate is really a guess at this point - which is why the middle of the road NWS Phlly/NYC calls for 2-4/3-6", depending on where you are in NJ/Eastern PA/NYC Metro/Hudson Valley/LI, is not a bad call at all. If we get a lot more they can always adjust upwards, but if we get a lot less or just an inch or two of slop, they don't look nearly as bad as folks predicting 8-12", mostly based on the NAM. Glad I'm not getting paid to make this forecast, as I'd be very afraid of getting fired, lol."http://rutgers.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?SID=988&fid=642&style=2&tid=163055127&Page=4 http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=tn_tnmn#!/notes/wxriskcom/last-call-forecast-and-why-i-busted-in-central-va/496145377099392http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Craig-Allen-On-Air-Inc/230609267719 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wrote this: http://www.nymetroweather.com/discussion/ And here is our latest briefing document: http://www.nymetroweather.com/march62013/stormalert_march6.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro a hair north through 12 hours compared to the 12z run. Not sure it will make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Precip into Philly at hour 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Right off the bat the Euro looks way too slow with the precip. At hour 6 it barely has measurable precip into DC. Obviously it's already snowing there. yeah some people are reporting almost 2 inches already down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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