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TS Isaac Banter Thread


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Nice. It's always interesting when media does something different like this for a change. Hopefully by "Cuba" they actually mean Cuba and not like Guantanamo Bay... I'd love to see them in Santiago.

Their tweet said Veradera which I'm assuming is Veradero... which doesn't appear to be the most exciting spot on this one as it's about where the storm exits Cuba after being over land per current track.

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Looking at the windsat that U_Thant posted in the main thread, what's the o/u for COCs? I'm going with 3.5.

:lol: I was just thinking that... It made my head hurt just looking at it!

Isaac hasn't gotten it's act together just yet... Wherever the COC does develop will, obviously, be HUGE for its future track. As Phil showed earlier... The ridge was handled fairly well by the 18Z?? GFS, the one that does the loopdeloop once it makes landfall. I can't wait to see what the 00Z GFS and Euro show tomorrow morning (have to be up in a few hours for work in the AM) as they'll have the G-IV and other synoptic data ingested. :)

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More like a monsoon low?

maybe i'm not the only one who feels like hes watching one of those giant(dare i say to the people of swfl..its gonna be huuuuuuugah! caroline) sized pacific storms forming with the size of this storm and slow burn.
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Anything to actually add to the discussion? You have 4 posts left to make it happen.

What would be interesting is if you could tell me how it could possibly be any stronger than that. It's barely a TS right now, has TONS of land to cross, and will probably be moving pretty quickly by the time it enters the GOM. Am I missing something?

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What would be interesting is if you could tell me how it could possibly be any stronger than that. It's barely a TS right now, has TONS of land to cross, and will probably be moving pretty quickly by the time it enters the GOM. Am I missing something?

Yeah, precisely that giant body of bath water in between Florida, the Yucatan and Texas...

gomt.gif

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There most likely won't be anything left of the storm when it enters that "giant body" of water. And besides warm water, hurricanes need low-shear environments with high moisture content,. It may have dry air issues entering the GOM, and if it's just a weak TS when it enters Hispaniola tomorrow, you can basically kiss that baby goodbye!

A weaker storm is more likely to survive land interaction.

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Can someone explain why a TC would fare better after emerging from Hispaniola if it entered as a less organized compared to a well-organized TC?

Some posters in the main thread seemed to imply the following:

TC1 and TC2 enter Hispaniola.

TC1 enters as a disorganized tropical storm (eg., Isaac currently)

TC2 enters as an organized Cat 1/2.

Obviously TC2 will be more sensitive and will weaken over Hispaniola more than TC1 would.

But my question: after emergence, will TC2 have a harder time to re-strengthen? Ie, does the fact that TC2 had more organized structure that was disrupted by Hispaniola make it more difficult for TC2 to re-strengthen after it emerges?

Some posters in the main thread implied this and I don't know if there's evidence for it or understand the mechanism.

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00z model track guidance takes Isaac somewhere between Pensacola and NOLA. I have read that a southeast approach to New Orleans is the most dangerous one.

From what I recall in the discussions prior to Katrina's arrival, the worst scenario is from the Southeast up the mouth of the Mississippi River, passing just west of NOLA.

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From what I recall in the discussions prior to Katrina's arrival, the worst scenario is from the Southeast up the mouth of the Mississippi River, passing just west of NOLA.

That would seem to make sense for the city itself. I'm really concerned about the condition of the canals and levees if Isaac makes Category 3 intensity from strengthening in the Gulf. Haven't read that much about it but guess the hype for NOLA will start soon especially if models start to show a consistent solution involving the NOLA area.

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I would be very surprised if the Euro comes in as far east as the 24/0z run of the GFS, It seems like it has done a very good job the last 10 days up here with the placement of trough's and ridges, last sunday I put out a forecast calling for a high of 87 here in the TC metro for the first day of the state fair (today), verification was 86, I also said 40% chance of storms or rain after 7pm, they stayed to the west of the metro. I know it's hard to extrapolate how it handle's the north vs south, but my gut instinct based on how well it has done up here handling the aforementioned features over the oceans is that is has the right idea for Issac, call me nuts if you want, but that is how I see the ridge north and east of Issac ie: I think the Euro has handled it well over it's last few runs showing a more westerly solution.

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