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IDK not everything is trending se:

low of -6 this morning, impressive considering it took til past 3 am for temps to drop below 10 wonder if we can pull a -10 min this week

OTS with Boston to PVD to Montauk smoked? Seems like it 4 to 15 west to east type

No, That's why i think what were looking at so far is wrong, But where does eventually end up is the question.

this kinda reminds me of the movie Spaceballs... suck, suck, suck!

I’m under my temp right now. Only 17 here

I want one more biggy, after that im done with the snow lol

The fact no one on the forum learned their lesson and are living model run to model run 4-5 days out reinforces why I love this place so much

Never seen a closed 518 ULL in SC before you?

We do wind well here....

I don't like seeing the UK go to an almost whiff. It did well last system and from my experience, does well with phasing. I definitely do not trust the GFS. Its almost always playing from behind but this is a very tricky situation that all depends on small changes. With the last storm I think both GFS and Euro struggled in different aspects. The Euro caught on to the more amped idea earlier but was terrible with CAD. The GFS took way too long to figure out the storm track but modeled the CAD better. As @BooneWX said, we may have to wait until CAMs range for this one. The upper low will have some smiling and some swearing to never trust a model again.

CMC stills get close to a foot on the coast. We don’t want this to wrap up and occlude to far south so staying positive tilt a little longer could help those farther north. .

Low Kemp Mill. 8 and Frederick 5

One of the GEFS ensembles near the mean is a 958mb on the benchark. Would probably send a giant deform band far inland.

For those wanting to understand the synoptics of the pattern and why the GFS trended better, it's mainly related to the upper low over the northern Atlantic. In the older days, this feature was/is referred to as the New Foundland low or "50/50" low, which forms near the 50/50 lat/lon area. It's a prevalent feature during -AO patterns which features lower heights over the CONUS and northern Atlantic, while higher heights build into the northern latitudes. This upper low acts as a way to slow down the pattern and induce additional cutoff lows upstream (in this case it would be our storm). The problem is if it's too strong it will suppress or shear out any attempts at this feature. This is a common model fault especially during these types of extreme -AO patterns. It's also a reason why commonly see these SECS systems trend NW/more amped as we draw closer. It has screwed us many times in the south. It could benefit us in this case. We want to see this 50/50 low continue to trend quicker and exit faster into the Atlantic. This allows the heights over the east coast to rise and give us a better chance at a cutoff with at least a positive tilt, which will throw back Atlantic moisture.

Two negatives thus far today. A trend SE with SLP track and no discernible trend to close off further north

Time 2 get nautical

Maybe its wrong.

Lots of big hits in there.

The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low

It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us. To be honest if this one really hits the snow will be deeper than even 2010-11 and I have no clue where it’ll go.

Too true

Baby steps.

Yes but you would expect its ensemble 'spread' to consolidate as we get closer as well. So range of ops 'jumping' becomes noise